no model of porjecting exchange rate movements is significantly superior to tossing a coin.
"The exceptions to this conclusion are those few cases of successful speculation in which governments have tried and failed to support a particular exchange rate.
Nonetheless, despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that, of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests.
The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into exchange rate determination but from the revenues they derive from making markets" - Alan Greenspan 2004
"The exceptions to this conclusion are those few cases of successful speculation in which governments have tried and failed to support a particular exchange rate.
Nonetheless, despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that, of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests.
The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into exchange rate determination but from the revenues they derive from making markets" - Alan Greenspan 2004