AUD/USD

within 10 minute if not penetrated 8670 im going !

stops just above 8700 it will go down but i had to go , Ciao!

bulding up nice resistance at .8660, if should hold it will be back at .8750 by tomorrow

Possible double bottom on the hourly chart (around 0.8650); anyone dare to go long here?

Nope, smashed through it... I'm getting support in the low 0.8600's on the 4 hour chart... see if that breaks through or not.

Puks, did you get ride of your shorts in this fall as I suggested before? the stocks are testing former Resistance now turns support, so it's a bit unclear whether it's gonna break or stand and resume the uptrend. I took profit on all my shorts and will stand aside till the situation will be become more clear.

Here are the http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...erland.svg.png UBS AG forecast & the link:
http://www.ubs.com/1/e/wealthmanagem...ch_update.html


EURGBP, GBPUSD: Forecast change (September 24, 2009, 5:25 PM)
We lift our three-month GBPUSD forecast from 1.60 to 1.63; our EURGBP forecast profile is flat, at 0.92 in three, six and twelve months. We still think that in the short term dips to GBPUSD 1.60 or even below are possible in the short term given the soft tones of the Bank of England.
USDCAD: Forecast change (September 24, 2009, 5:25 PM)
We lower our USDCAD forecast to 1.05 in three and 1.03 in six months (previously 1.08 and 1.05); our twelve-month call stays at parity (1.0). CAD should remain supported due to stable-to-increasing oil prices and the Canadian economy's rise out of recession.
AUDUSD, NZDUSD: Forecast change (September 24, 2009, 5:25 PM)
We raise our AUDUSD forecast to 0.88, 0.92, 0.92 for three, six and twelve months (previously 0.83, 0.85, 0.88) and NZDUSD to 0.72, 0.72, and 0.75 (0.68, 0.7, 0.7). Both profit from a solid economic performance of commodity producing countries and the expectation that they will be the first to hike.
USDCHF: Forecast change (September 24, 2009, 5:20 PM)
We leave the EURCHF forecast unchanged and the change in EURUSD forecast leads to USDCHF 1.01, 1.00 and 0.99 in 2, 6 and 12 months (previously 1.05, 1.01 and 0.99). When the US dollar weakens the Swiss National Bank has even stronger incentives to prevent the CHF from strengthening against the EUR.
EURUSD: Forecast change (September 24, 2009, 5:18 PM)
We raise our three-month EURUSD forecast from 1.45 to 1.50, which was our old six-month forecast, and lift the six-month forecast to 1.53. The twelve-months stay at 1.57. Recent price action has confirmed that the exchange rate is on track to our long-term forecast.

The Daily chart is preparing to print a bearish close. Common sense trendlines continue to remain in play on both the AUD 4hr and the 8hr, with price hitting resistance in the 86 region. I believe this level is the key and must be broken with authority before we will see further downside and a decent test of 85 which in my view is the dominant psychological support level.

Gold is also preparing to print a bearish close and has snuck back under the 1000 level. The past 4-5 days shows the sort of volatility and indecision which follows a break of a major psych level and we may get more of this as we approach the weekly/monthly/quarterley closes. This may shake the AUD around enough to result in further decline. I am happy to remain with a moderate short bias for AUD and will continue to sell into strength should we see a reversal from current levels.

My entries are timed off the 30min chart and we can see that yesterday was a significant day. Firm break of the Daily Pivot Point, firm break of the Weekly Pivot Point and firm break of the Monthly R2, which were all closely aligned. Whenever I see Support/Resistance/Pivot Points clustered in this fashion I sit up and take notice as it can indicate a waning of longer term momentum. A quick check of the Weekly chart shows price is preparing to doji, with a modest bearish bias.

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...mm_618f8ce.png

0.8590 is onthe card

good to know thanks buddy!

Hi Kristo, you are in deep money woo hoo!

Hi Ben10, so far so good. I am also short the Kiwi which has just printed an awful Trade Balance and is currently diving, I suspect to the 70 level. Certainly it's lost some of its recent heat and this will also have a negative impact on the Aussie. For different reasons, GBP is also in freefall and testing 1.6000, my limit orders were filled there a short while ago, but its worth a look for longer term traders. I will be watching for general USD strength over the next 4-6 weeks.

Kristo, may i know what is the yellow and red moving average?

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...um_dacf963.png

A couple of bearish pins on the Daily. Kiwi on the way down to reload.

Sure. The Red and Yellow MA's are 10EMA set for the "Close" and 12EMA set for the "Open".

good to hear,tempting to short the gbp/usd last night but too late , it was luck of me to close gbp/jpy long as im long the usd/yen

wow ...even better , great job buddy!

ok got it! thanks a lot Kristo!