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  • #5,661
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:00pm Sep 23, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting Barry Cade
I forgot to add, you need to know the currency. Does it normally react to 76%? I know GU does, but some arent as reactive & I havent traded Kiwi, so dont assume I am making a recommendation. Just an observation that may, or may not, help.
yes some pairs like to react at certain f. like eu likes 61.8
  • #5,662
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:07pm Sep 23, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting rockk
yes some pairs like to react at certain f. like eu likes 61.8
What is your statistical evidence to support this?

Jacko, who only trades EURUSD with $2,000+ per pip, ONLY uses 50% as he has proven it to be reliable and consistent.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,663
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:14pm Sep 23, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting benkm108
hi, sorry to butt in but while i read through the pages of this top class thread, i had a great laugh at this post. seeyou in a week or three once i finsh reading every page
welcome...
yes you have to laugh. i did.
its good thread here as you said,but sometimes , as norm, you may read bad words (like craks,....bla bla) just ignore and go on.
well go on reading and understanding, take your time and come back to us here again.
  • #5,664
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:22pm Sep 23, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting strat
What is your statistical evidence to support this?

Jacko, who only trades EURUSD with $2,000+ per pip, ONLY uses 50% as he has proven it to be reliable and consistent.
and what is the statiscal evidence to support this?
  • #5,665
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:29pm Sep 23, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting rockk
and what is the statiscal evidence to support this?
Don't try to be a SMART ASS!

If you were as smart as you think you are you should know about Jacko

This is the second time you have tried to be a smart ass and is your last time.

This is an educational thread for teaching traders how to trade and not for smart asses to exhibit their ego
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,666
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:28pm Sep 23, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting strat
What is your statistical evidence to support this?

Jacko, who only trades EURUSD with $2,000+ per pip, ONLY uses 50% as he has proven it to be reliable and consistent.

Indeed, I have to echo this. Jacko proves again and again the value of the trend in trading, accompanied by perhaps a more important tool - that of solid money management and a plan for dealing with losses quite smartly. The 50 is the only Fibo in that arsenal, as is only one pair.
  • #5,667
  • Sep 23, 2009 11:45pm Sep 23, 2009 11:45pm
Quoting strat
Don't try to be a SMART ASS!

If you were as smart as you think you are you should know about Jacko

This is the second time you have tried to be a smart ass and is your last time.

This is an educational thread for teaching traders how to trade and not for smart asses to exhibit their ego
this is no SMART ASS of anybody.
and no ego in the mkt. mkt is the judge.
I was using your own logic. you talked about statistical evidence, is it you or me who said that?
so you did not show statistics to support your words. is it because he is trading 2000$ a pip? thats no statistic. go to Barclays Ba web site and see how is the performance of real big bankers and hedge funds at the end of each 6 month.you find it does not depend on the name or size.

"this is the second time you are tyrying to be smart ass"
i dont know what you are talking about..is it because I said about eur usd its not head and shoulder. yes thats my opinion and still it is. H&S is a reversal pattern in any article you read. although its not the main subject in this thread to completely discus patterns,not any three tops or (buttoms) with middle one is the highest simply IS H&S.
H&S have many criteria to fulfil. then to say h&s (or even failed h&s) .thats why many of us (traders) even with reasonable experience get into the trap and just trade it.
thats how BBs or mkt makers want us to see the mkt for med. and long term trades,its the only way they will make money(knowing that they are on the other side of the trade.)either THEY win orYOU win no third option here.

but after all that was my opinion. is that the way you take second opinion!! telling its EGO ..

"this is the last time"
is this a warning!!!
I want to tell you that when i enterd forex factory this thread and others i was happy, and all of us do, to know and discuss new things and benifit each other, and to learn as you said it is for learning. nothing wrong about that. all of us will continue to learn (including you) till the last trade.(who will stop learning!)
but I WANT TO REMIND YOU that during this period i was polite, respecting ETHICS, never called anybody bad names, but one natorious member here was ,not only judging ppl but also said bad words about me, and unfortunately it was recognised and documented by other two members not only me.
(may be also recognised by other members here)
why you did not comment then?
for me , or any person, its NOT ALLOWED that somebody else to call him bad names. either here in this thread or any thread of F.F or any site on the net.
  • #5,668
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:42am Sep 24, 2009 1:42am
Everyone say thaks to Craig for compiling the acronym list for this thread

It is now on the Index, check it out here http://sites.google.com/site/stratst.../accronym-list
  • #5,669
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:10am Sep 24, 2009 3:10am
Quoting strat
Amateurs manage money by taking RISK

Professionals manage RISK by taking money.


Professionals look for a reason NOT TO TAKE A TRADE



Zero Sum game – SOMEONE HAS TO LOSE



When you trade, you are accepting RISK
When I checked through my recent small trades to see why some have been losses, they are NEARLY ALL because I have rushed to catch a move (sometimes signalled on the thread) WITHOUT checking PA in detail, possible losses and potential target.

I was being greedy rather than being IN CONTROL of what I was doing.

Why did I do that? I normally use charts posted here as a way to learn why the poster is saying what they do - they are excellent learning resources - so why did I use them as tips a few times?

And I thought I was too long in the tooth to be like that! Now I know!!

There is NO substitute for doing one's own work on the charts and systematically working out the various dimensions of the trade. I KNOW it is better to wait than to jump on a trade, but it is easier to say than it is to do if one is keen to do well.
  • #5,670
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:41am Sep 24, 2009 3:41am
Quoting strat
Don't waste your time on Daily pivots.

Compared to S&R and DSRI, Daily pivots are about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!

I agree if they are used in isolation. Too risky, esp as different platforms calculate different PPs! However when price reacts to them esp at / near a confluence then they are very useful (they have been to me, when trading intraday). In this case I was using to confirm daily direction to get earlier entry!

Apologies, I perhaps shouldnt have mentioned it because its an intraday style.
  • #5,671
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:48am Sep 24, 2009 3:48am
Quoting Naws
Everyone say thaks to Craig for compiling the acronym list for this thread

It is now on the Index, check it out here http://sites.google.com/site/stratst.../accronym-list
Thx Craig, good work.
To help me cross ref quicker I converted the doc into a spreadsheet so I could sort alphabeticlally.

It may help/save time for someone else, so Ive attached a copy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Acronyms.xls   13 KB | 569 downloads
  • #5,672
  • Edited 5:14am Sep 24, 2009 3:57am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Alexandra

Seriously - how about that weekly S/R....it's been touched already...

Notably, the rally stalled at a corresponsing static weekly point - I believe someone pointed that out previously.
0.9080 SR is crucial, IMO, and if penetrated (make a way, broken, passed or a close above) next stop will be 0.9450.
  • #5,673
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:27am Sep 24, 2009 4:27am
Quoting Blackeagle
0.9080 SR is crucial, IMO, and if penetrated next stop will be 0.9450.
what do you mean 'penetrated'?
  • #5,674
  • Sep 24, 2009 6:25am Sep 24, 2009 6:25am
Perfection, now will DSRI hold or fail today...

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  • #5,675
  • Sep 24, 2009 7:48am Sep 24, 2009 7:48am
Quoting strat
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER...
""Yes, you can look back at charts where you see good counter trend trades and I have been in many of them but EQUALLY, I have been in counter trend trades where PRICE reversed sharply in a short space of time (to continue the trend) and left me with unexpected and most unwelcome LOSSES.""

Ask and ye shall receive!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,676
  • Edited 8:59am Sep 24, 2009 8:14am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting rockk
this is no SMART ASS of anybody.
and no ego in the mkt. mkt is the judge.
I was using your own logic. you talked about statistical evidence, is it you or me who said that?
so you did not show statistics to support your words. is it because he is trading 2000$ a pip?...
While I refuse to be drawn into meaningless arguments with ego minded individuals who feel they have a point to prove, I need to address your statement on Jacko:

“”I was using your own logic. you talked about statistical evidence, is it you or me who said that?
so you did not show statistics to support your words. is it because he is trading 2000$ a pip? thats no statistic. go to Barclays Ba web site and see how is the performance of real big bankers and hedge funds at the end of each 6 month.you find it does not depend on the name or size.””

Jacko is a revered and trusted trader here on FF. In his early days on FF, he traded LIVE on short time frames FOR ALL TO SEE with spectacular results.

He now has a different thread and a private, subscription, members only blog where he POSTS his trades and RESULTS. He is a $multi- millionaire trader that makes the rest of us look like tiddly wink players at a Sunday School garden tea party.

Jacko also has his own Hedge Fund, which to date, is out – performing all and any other funds out there.

Traders at Barclays Bank would absolutely LOVE to have Jacko’s performance!

Now, LET ME REMIND YOU – this is MY thread – It is an EDUCATIONAL thread where we provide solid and grounded teachings on trading forex – it is not a place for people to air their biased, egotistical and unfounded opinions which could lead to traders losing money. If I feel there are posters on here who are negative and disruptive, then I have the ability to exclude these people from posting.

This is the END of this discussion.

You are, as is everyone, welcome to post positive and constructive comments on this thread.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,677
  • Sep 24, 2009 8:27am Sep 24, 2009 8:27am
Quoting AstonDan
Perfection, now will DSRI hold or fail today...

Attachment
cables avge daily range has recently been less than 150. Today its dropped 200+. so the figures indicate it may not go further. However, there is news at 3, so, you never know.
  • #5,678
  • Sep 24, 2009 8:52am Sep 24, 2009 8:52am
Quoting strat
""Yes, you can look back at charts where you see good counter trend trades and I have been in many of them but EQUALLY, I have been in counter trend trades where PRICE reversed sharply in a short space of time (to continue the trend) and left me with unexpected and most unwelcome LOSSES.""

Ask and ye shall receive!
Hi Strat, below is the GBPUSD, I would like to know, if I'm to short this pair, will it be considered going agaisnt the trend? Of course, it's because of valid setups (at least I think) that's why Im loooking for a short. ok, here comes the charts.

Weekly has shown uptrend since 25th January. Overall big trend is Downtrend as shown from November 2007. Price is currently breaking the weekly 20.

Daily: Yesterday's bar close as a shooting star with the daily 50 acting as resistance to both the daily 20 and the price. Price is currently below daily 20, and the immediate trend is Bearish. Price has also broken a trendline and is breaking weekly 20 at the moment. So everything is showing down at the moment.

If today's bar close below the boss 20 then I am considering entering a stop sell order below the low. SL above the bars high which is around 250 pips and target 1st tp around 1.5980ish.

R:R isn't really rewarding plus the big stop loss. So maybe I should wait for a better entry? Strat says that Ib tends to form after a long bar, and we can get a better entry after that. I might choose to wait.

So, am I considered as going against the trend?

Thanks for the comments and advice.

Sean.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #5,679
  • Sep 24, 2009 9:52am Sep 24, 2009 9:52am
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat, below is the GBPUSD, I would like to know, if I'm to short this pair, will it be considered going agaisnt the trend? Of course, it's because of valid setups (at least I think) that's why Im loooking for a short. ok, here comes the charts.

Weekly has shown uptrend since 25th January. Overall big trend is Downtrend as shown from November 2007. Price is currently breaking the weekly 20.

Daily: Yesterday's bar close as a shooting star with the daily 50 acting as resistance to both the daily 20 and the price. Price is currently below daily...
Sean,
Don't be in such a hurry to get into a trade – take another read of Lotuselanman’s post # 5669 (Thanks Christopher).

You are firmly trapped in the vices of an amateur whose only thoughts are profit. When we see prices move (big red and green bars), our psyche (greed) takes over and the little man rushes you to get a piece of the action. This is the absolute worst time to enter a trade and is where 98% of traders lose. The big boys (MMs) are behind these big moves and wait for the suckers to follow in behind them. When they feel they have enough suckers, they will reverse on you and laugh all the way to their bank.

Remember, trading, and forex especially, where there is no central exchange and fewer regulations than futures, is a dog eat dog arena where the predators are constantly feeding on their prey. My goal is for each of us to be predators and NOT the prey.

When you see these big moves, just stand aside and watch. The opportunity for a trade has gone. That opportunity was BEFORE the move, not during it and certainly not after it.

Don’t think it’s just you Sean, IT gets all of us one way or another or sometime or other, especially when our greed demon is active. Learn to CONTROL your emotions (greed and fear) and you will be successful.

Now on to GBPUSD and your post.

As I am writing, NY is selling GBP like its going out of fashion. Just let it go. Leave it to the short time frame guys if they can catch it. So what to do?

First, wait for the Daily bar to close (5pm NY (EST)). Although the week has not yet finished, observe the levels on the BOSS – these have or are, being broken.
Check the Worker, observe the levels – again these have or are, being broken.

Now, study the trends. Understand where we are in ALL the trends in the BOSS and Worker.

It “appears” the downtrend has resumed but we don’t know for sure. How will we know? When key support levels on both BOSS and Worker are taken out. When those are breached with a strong close, that is a good sign.

See if you can identify those levels.

Usually, but not always, after a big move, there is……………nothing. The market has been beaten up pretty bad and needs time to recover. Our challenge as professional traders is to WAIT……………….let the market tell us what to do, let her show us the way. If you think this waiting is losing pips then you are NOT in CONTROL – your EMOTIONS (greed and fear) are. There are trades everywhere, some good and some bad. We only want to trade the good ones.

I know this is not the answer you were looking for but it's the best I can give, sorry.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,680
  • Sep 24, 2009 10:33am Sep 24, 2009 10:33am
Quoting Alexandra
Surf the wave, not the ripple. Yes, sometimes it's a big contra ripple if overextended, but......why?

That ripple may likely be done on day 3.
Great quote Alexandra -

I think the best counter trend shooting star trades are the ones like cable has displayed today - with the new trend. Picking tops and bottoms, I have found to my detriment, is a fools game that only keeps the brokers rich.

Most tops form with some recognisable topping action and rarely shoot up (like nzdusd) and then turn on a dime and come shooting back down - the traces of the bulls and bears battle is usually there for all to see. I think that crude displayed some excellent PASR action from the underside rejection of the DSRI and has fallen a bit today. I had the 67.00 level as my key level and would not short until that went and was tested
Trade less and become more profitable!
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