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Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i don't get it and am not referring to that he IS NOT trading currencies, of course he does! i am referring about the OUTCOME of his trades. -ve/ +ve

i won't waste any more time arguing. i just made my point. i am not a systems trader, i am only trading discretionary with price & volume since i never liked indicator based system and they do not make me feel comfortable.

i will quit posting here since you again proved of being clueless and just somehow want to argue.
it is a fact that the trader is the one who makes a system winning/losing! the...
i'm just trying to uncover the truth. as i understand it now you believe consistently profitable systems do exist and that Buffett uses them to make billions on the regular. well i respectfully disagree.
change the future, not the past
  • Post #82
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:04am Sep 23, 2009 6:54am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting 137

look out! these funds are gonna be worth 10's of billions! economy - proof ATMs here we come! or wait, those systems aren't consistent? nooooooo!
Consistent, yes, but not necessarily capable of being infinitely scaled up, you see that's the problem with your 'lets solve world famine' plan, you might have to go back to the drawing board with that one!



Quoting 137
i'd prefer to avoid an argument
And there was me thinking you were trying to be like all good uni students, a controversial hellraiser looking to challenge everything just for the hell of it, if I said today was Wednesday you'd probably find a reason to say it wasn't, hehe.

You're the guy who discovered the meaning of life....but forgot to write it down, right?
Quoting 137
i'm just trying to uncover the truth. as i understand it now you believe consistently profitable systems do exist and that Buffett uses them to make billions on the regular. well i respectfully disagree.
again you are wrong! i just have said that one cannot and never should believe what the news say! i have not said that there are automatic systems which are based on indicators and are consistent profitable. based on indicators this imho is not possible since all of those indicators are trying to predict the future based on the past. they remove "the noise" which often gives a clue or is important. IMHO the only system which can be profitable (unequal winning each trade) is one based on at least level2 insight and even deeper insight into the orderbook. learn abotu market mechanics, market makign and how price finding works and study the bid&ask.

there are profitable systems which are based on discretionary trading decisions by trying to track the orderflow and swimming with the cash side of the market. of course, there are also wrong trades involved but this is where MM comes into play and sticking to a trading plan which involves, prior to entering a trade: -what is the price i am willing to enter this short -how much risk do i take -how much loss is possible -where is my profit target - why do i enter here and so on...
Quoting birdt


"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is."

Jan La Van De Snepscheut


Ever wondered why your holy grail EA's failed to work, and what does that tell you about the market?...
totally agree. my point is that these 'magic' traders, over the long run, can't be consistent in the FOREX market, even if they are lucky. otherwise these Michael Jordans (Gods?) of finance would be saving the world, one billion at a time.

Quoting birdt
And I must say, this fantasy of skipping down to the end of the rainbow to pick up your daily wheelbarrow full of cash when you have a profitable strategy is completely ridiculous. Sounds like you are still on the hunt for the Holy Grail. Read some books by people who have traded other people's money for a living and see that this business is not entirely without diseconomies of scale. I recommend Marty Schwartz's Pit Bull. He's a day-trader/scalper, a very profitable one too, but he found his limits the hard way.
thank you, i will be continuing to research the subject. i think there might be a problem with this particular recommendation however. from what i understand Marty was a stock trader. that is a completely different set of rules.

there is a phenomenon which has occurred recently with the advent of high-frequency trading where computers make millions of trades within seconds in the stock market. this is the holy grail (if the regulators continue to allow it). the problem is the stock market is tiny compared to forex. and that's also why, in case you haven't noticed lol, i don't think you can make 10-30% a year with any kind of certainty in the forex market. otherwise it's game over.
change the future, not the past
Quoting pipmutt
Consistent, yes, but not necessarily capable of being infinitely scaled up, you see that's the problem with your 'lets solve world famine' plan, you might have to go back to the drawing board with that one!
haha well that's my fantasy. no i totally understand what you're saying. but let's not forget that this market turns over 960 000 billion a year, allowing the prospect of making a lot of money during this time more than possible.

Quoting pipmutt
You're the guy who discovered the meaning of life....but forgot to write it down, right?
hahaha it's around here somewhere
change the future, not the past
Quoting 137
let's not forget that this market turns over 960 000 billion a year, allowing the prospect of making a lot of money during this time more than possible.
Right!

'A lot' is a relative term, you're always going to be limited by liquidity anyway.

I still can't understand why you're so skeptical about the existence of consistently profitable systems, it's a totally illogical assumption.
Quoting pipmutt
Right!

'A lot' is a relative term, you're always going to be limited by liquidity anyway.

I still can't understand why you're so skeptical about the existence of consistently profitable systems, it's a totally illogical assumption.
the fact that you are not (yet) stumbled across such a system should support the view that there is one. if i had a consistant profitable automatic trading system, the hell would i spread that information, because this is when it begins to stumble and fail which is logical. this is a sharks game and the second best thing besides making money is when the others do not make or lose money.
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the fact that you are not (yet) stumbled across such a system should support the view that there is one. if i had a consistant profitable automatic trading system, the hell would i spread that information, because this is when it begins to stumble and fail which is logical. this is a sharks game and the second best thing besides making money is when the others do not make or lose money.
I think you replied to the wrong post (I'll delete this if you want to edit)
Quoting pipmutt
I think you replied to the wrong post (I'll delete this if you want to edit)
i replied to the assumption you made (that he thinks there is no cons. profitable system)
Quoting pipmutt
You obviously speak from your own personal experience.......but one man's trash is another man's treasure, your losses were someone else's gain, you realize that right?
it is from my personal experience, experience typing 'forex' into google lol
change the future, not the past
thanks to all the people who have contributed to this thread so far!

i'm pretty sure this will be my last post cuz i think i've said what i needed to say.

in closing i will state:

1) if proven, consistently profitable systems exist that are GUARANTEED to make between 10%-30% a year in the forex market, Buffett, Gates, Conservative Christians, Coca-Cola, Conan O'Brien, The Tooth Fairy, Facebook, Twitter, Barack Obama, Colbert, Bill Clinton, YouTube, Google, Electro, Greenspan, Women, John Lennon's soul, Preview Post, Submit Reply and this guy would team up to use this strategy and create something truly wonderful over the next 20 years. something so inspiring, something so emotionally powerful it would go down forever in human history as a single act of unity which altered the global consciousness forever (until the Universe cools down too much and we have to escape into a new Universe, but then again we would still be alive so it's cool).

2) i 'pray' that can happen
change the future, not the past
Quoting 137
thanks to all the people who have contributed to this thread so far!

i'm pretty sure this will be my last post cuz i think i've said what i needed to say.

in closing i will state:

1) if proven, consistently profitable systems exist that are GUARANTEED to make between 10%-30% a year in the forex market....
you WILL not get your hands on such systems. if such system were made public, they would begin too fail, because too many can't be profitable! i think i already explained everything you need to know about this point but you deny it. you need to understand market mechanics...

just reading the charts combined with proper mm and sticking to rules makes you consistent profitable, but u need to invest thousands of hours in learning to read and udnerstand what's going on. until you understand that the person trading the system is the most important part when you found a system that has proven to do double digit returns over the year. such system exist enough...but i think the problem here is that you need to evolve in your thinking and just childish posts like the one above and the fact that you are the kind of guy who, as it seems, likes just to fight what we say, does not help you. 10-30% a year is not something special in these times. you can yield this in a month or even week.

it seems that somehow you have been stuck on your journey to trading success over the last years. the only advice for now i can give you is: get rid of indicator based systems, they will not make you feel comfortable, nor will they work consistently except if you are happy with takign 2 trades a month. the other point is doing some research on trading psychology which is a thing absolutely every top trader deals with and constitently works out with personal coaching or own rulesets. if you begin to realize the importance of those two aspects, you are on the right way.
Quoting 137
in closing i will state:
Buffett, Gates, Conservative Christians, Coca-Cola, Conan O'Brien, The Tooth Fairy, Facebook, Twitter, Barack Obama, Colbert, Bill Clinton, YouTube, Google, Electro, Greenspan, Women, John Lennon's soul, Preview Post, Submit Reply and this guy

Yeah....cut down your caffeine intake by at least half, I've also heard hitting yourself on the head with a baseball bat helps
Quoting 137
please prove me wrong. please tell me that profitable systems do exist and that i too can eliminate needless blindness from Africa.

I dont think there are profitable systems but there are traders who apply a method consistently and over a set time and thus become profitable.
What I am trying to say is that a system per se cannot be profitable but that profitability depends on how consistently somebody implements that system.

Another factor that, I found, makes trading hard to grasp is profitability in conjunction with time.
E.g. those turtle guys might have been losing for 6 months in a row but over a 12 month period they were profitable.
So how do you measure profitability?

Dunno about you being able to eliminate blindness in Africa even if you were 10 times richer than the richest man in the world.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
don't be naive to think there is no profitable system.
i am again emphasizing, that the second best thing besides making money is preventing others nto to make money. that's how this game of sharks works and a rule of wallstreet.

the hell would anybody who can count till three share a profitable system with the wide mass. again, this would mark the begin of the systems end, because the whole market can only work when the biggest amount of participants is mislead and loses money.
Quoting 137

1) if proven, consistently profitable systems exist that are GUARANTEED to make between 10%-30% a year
From my experience a system can't be 'proven' to work or 'guaranteed' to make a specified amount. The market changes so much its a dynamic thing, thats why your mind and trading needs to be a dynamic and changing thing. Price patterns that worked a few years ago, don't work now cause the market has changed. New patterns are emerging now, and a trader must be quick to see and adjust to them.

ex. The turtle system which worked great back in the day, doesn't have the same results today.

Do you know that a system can have a hit rate(profitable positive pip trades) of 13% and still get super returns. Why? as long as your winning trades are bigger than your losers. (money and risk management). (I picked 13% because I have actually seen a breakout system with that statistic. It was like a 40% returns a year)

You can have a 95% hit rate on trades (positive pips) yet still lose money if your losers totally eclipse your winners.

What is your definition of profitable?
  • Post #97
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:42am Sep 24, 2009 6:34am | Edited 8:42am
137,
I didn't see any reply to any of my questions below so I'll re phase them.
How many five star trading systems threads have you read, & practiced that were started by ff folks with more than a few vouches?
Do you spend more time on threads like this one than actually trading?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...69&postcount=2
I see swingman's is on your buddies list, you could start a thread on developing a trading systems with some of his indis, I'm sure he'd give you a hand when he has the time.
My old sig file comes to mind too:
" 2. The second problem is that they are all looking for the "Holy Grail" There is no "mechanical system" that is a "Holy Grail"...I have been watching the contortions of a trader here who is trying to prove that Elliott Wave is the answer... BS !
However, let me tell you a secret...there is a "Holy Grail". Every time you look in the mirror, you will see it. It is you.",
from:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286

Quoting 45Fxguy
137,

What trading systems have you tired, & for how long, demo, to micro etc?

Do you have a favorite set of indicators etc yet?

Try taking a couple of them play with their settings a bit if necessary for whatever you see that may work best for that pair's time frame or chart type your using.

Post a few screen shots, and ask what you can do to make it better.

You might be surprised with what you, & ff come up with, and it will be custom made for you.
Or have you even bothered to take time to look at some of the profiles of the people who have been posting to you thread?
As you can see 137, the assertion of a non-predictible market has brought a lot of posters out, all politely trying to show you the error of your ways. From your last post, it looks like you are getting tired of defending yourself. So do scientists at a loch ness monster convention. Here are a few points I think we can agree on:

1) There is no set of rules that can be rigorously followed that can produce profit into infinity. I believe that most of the posters on this board will agree to that. Why not? You say due to market randomness, others say "changing market conditions". You say potato, they say tomato.

2) There are, without dispute, a small number of traders who are successful after a long period, let's say 10,000 trades (approx. 5 years daytrading). They say this is because they have figured out a good system, or they are astute in reading the market, or a combination of the two. You and I would say that they are accounted for under the bell curve and the avaialbe area under that curve is continually shrinking. Mr. Greenspan would say that, given a large number of participants, there would be a small number of succesful coin flippers after 10,000 flips.

3) What if you and I are wrong? We must allow for that possibility. Yes, we have math on our side, as well as logical reasoning.... but that same mathematical rigor demands that we give some weight to the possibility of error. If that is the case then we are in the same plight as those who oppose us in this argument. I seriously doubt if our minds will ever be changed. OK, some emperical evidence would be nice... but it would take a lot. Our minds are made up.

4) So what to do? Give up? Nothing wrong with that. It will not cost us any money. The only other alternative is to look for solutions that allow for success given that the markets short term movements are in fact random. This is the area that I am working on now.

I wish you all the best in your journey.....

Regards,
Petra, what would constitute evidence of non-random behaviour?
Quoting triphop
Petra, what would constitute evidence of non-random behaviour?
That is a very complex answer. To prove something is random or not is moving into the realm of topics for PhD dissertations. While the answer is not simple, I will give you a simple idea to think about, and this may well start you down the road to finding your answer.

To declare a set of numbers or patterns as non-random it is only necessary to find a program that will generate the series and is substantially smaller than the series itself. For example, you can write a progam that gives you the Daily Close for E/U for the last 400 days--- but the size of that progam is larger than the data set it produces. If you could boil that progam down to one, concise program (probably some form of cubic spline) you may well be on to something. I have tried and have not been able to find such a formula.

There are other ways to declare a series non-random, including inductive reasoning and algorithms... but let's just leave it there for now.

My conclusion is short term price movements, as they relate to the retail forex customer, are sufficently random to prevent changing the inherent negative expectancy to positive expectancy.... assuming that you are using a system that requires you to correctly predict price movements.
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