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  • #5,641
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:02pm Sep 23, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting One14
Hi Strat,

Shooting Star on NZD.

Big Boss and Boss are UP. Is this a good example of when to take profits if you were in the uptrend and not an opportunity to short at this point?

This would be in contrast to the USDJPY ATM trade you talked about yesterday (which was in the direction of the Boss and Big Boss trend).

Corbett
Normally in intraday I would look to sell on breach of daily low with a confirming bar. How relevant bthis is to long trades I am not sure.

However look back on chart. Weekly bar is not a test (yet).

On 14/8 there was a similar daily test bar & price only retraced for 1 more day before continuing up.

76% weekly fib is at 7425 so maybe thats a target & theres more to come.
  • #5,642
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:04pm Sep 23, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting Dabestone
I'm posting this to further understand how to trade the trend, how much importance of a price action shown in a certain area/line.

Attached are the EUR/GBP weekly and Daily charts.
I have attached the chart as I see it at the moment, with all the support below I would be looking for bullish PA on a test of support to enter a long on the daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp_23_sep_09_revised.gif Size: 14 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,643
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:09pm Sep 23, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Normally in intraday I would look to sell on breach of daily low with a confirming bar. How relevant bthis is to long trades I am not sure.

However look back on chart. Weekly bar is not a test (yet).

On 14/8 there was a similar daily test bar & price only retraced for 1 more day before continuing up.

76% weekly fib is at 7425 so maybe thats a target & theres more to come.

I forgot to add, you need to know the currency. Does it normally react to 76%? I know GU does, but some arent as reactive & I havent traded Kiwi, so dont assume I am making a recommendation. Just an observation that may, or may not, help.
  • #5,644
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:16pm Sep 23, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Normally in intraday I would look to sell on breach of daily low with a confirming bar. How relevant bthis is to long trades I am not sure.

However look back on chart. Weekly bar is not a test (yet).

On 14/8 there was a similar daily test bar & price only retraced for 1 more day before continuing up.

76% weekly fib is at 7425 so maybe thats a target & theres more to come.
I have a demo trade short on this as it's a good setup. I know correlation is bad too, but oil is trading below the major DSRI now and today's bar was a BEEB, so it could be 'wagging' the dollar despite the $'s funnymental views etc.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,645
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:16pm Sep 23, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting Sinan
I have attached the chart as I see it at the moment, with all the support below I would be looking for bullish PA on a test of support to enter a long on the daily.
its sitting on 23% daily fib having retraced. Needs a confirmation of direction. In my intraday trades I would look to go long when daily pivot point breached.
  • #5,646
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:21pm Sep 23, 2009 5:21pm
Just thinking about the shooting star here and a penetration of the neckline would complete the H/S pattern (1.61825?)...

Then we have a fourth test of the 1.61100 area...

But we have to get through the BOSS 20 first.

SLAVE 20 and 50 worked very nicely today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_23_sep_09_revised.gif Size: 15 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,647
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:39pm Sep 23, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting Sinan
Just thinking about the shooting star here and a penetration of the neckline would complete the H/S pattern (1.61825?).
trendline for "H&S" is approx. It shows 40 points lower on mine as the trendline isnt definite ie its inconsistent in relation to candle bodies & tails.

For what its worth I may enter trade tomorrow (UK time) based upon daily pivot point. Todays DPP breached a couple of hours ago, so I want confirmation in the morning
  • #5,648
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:02pm Sep 23, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Dabestone
I'm posting this to further understand how to trade the trend, how much importance of a price action shown in a certain area/line.

Attached are the EUR/GBP weekly and Daily charts.

WEEKLY:The Overall major trend is BULLISH dating back to year of 2000. Pair experienced a pullback between the period of Dec 2008 to June 2009. Then resume the bullish trend is from 22nd June 2009 up till now. Price is also currently above both the weekly 20 and 50. Hence indicating bullish trend.

DAILY: Tuesday's bar has closed as a BEOB. Price is...
“”So, my question is, IF I am to SELL EURGBP now, would it be considered as TRADING AGAINST THE TREND””

YES! The Worker, under instructions from the BOSS, is in an uptrend (as is the BOSS).

Any short trade is therefore a counter trend trade and NOT recommended for those on The Path of Learning.

This started as profit taking and will progress to a dip (retrace). We need to watch PASR and Fib levels for signs that the dip is over and demand starts again. The key on all dips and rallies is to watch PASR and particularly the Fib levels as many times, dips and rallies turn into trend changes.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,649
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:07pm Sep 23, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting One14
Hi Strat,

Shooting Star on NZD.

Big Boss and Boss are UP. Is this a good example of when to take profits if you were in the uptrend and not an opportunity to short at this point?

This would be in contrast to the USDJPY ATM trade you talked about yesterday (which was in the direction of the Boss and Big Boss trend).

Corbett
YES, its get your wheelbarrow out, fill it with greenbacks and run to the bank time! This what I call Reverse PA - an opportunity to take profits.

It is NOT the time to go short as the trend is UP.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,650
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:12pm Sep 23, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Grimweasel.. I've just opened a demo on FxPro thanks to you guys' recommdation. I've noticed that FxPro does not have Sunday bar?
“”For those on FXPro don't forget to open the Market watch button and Rt click and press "Show all" - you will need to select the Nov Crude contract as the Oct one has now stopped.””

“”I've noticed that FxPro does not have Sunday bar?””

Weaslygrim and StonedAbe,

The instruments and bars available have nothing to do with FXPro – it is dependent on the selection of your broker.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,651
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:14pm Sep 23, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting Sinan
I have attached the chart as I see it at the moment, with all the support below I would be looking for bullish PA on a test of support to enter a long on the daily.
That's the way to do it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,652
  • Edited 6:29pm Sep 23, 2009 6:16pm | Edited 6:29pm
Quoting Dabestone
I'm posting this to further understand how to trade the trend, how much importance of a price action shown in a certain area/line.

Attached are the EUR/GBP weekly and Daily charts.

WEEKLY:The Overall major trend is BULLISH dating back to year of 2000. Pair experienced a pullback between the period of Dec 2008 to June 2009. Then resume the bullish trend is from 22nd June 2009 up till now. Price is also currently above both the weekly 20 and 50. Hence indicating bullish trend.

DAILY: Tuesday's bar has closed as a BEOB. Price...
Surf the wave, not the ripple. Yes, sometimes it's a big contra ripple if overextended, but......why?

That ripple may likely be done on day 3.
  • #5,653
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:16pm Sep 23, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting Barry Cade
I forgot to add, you need to know the currency. Does it normally react to 76%? I know GU does, but some arent as reactive & I havent traded Kiwi, so dont assume I am making a recommendation. Just an observation that may, or may not, help.
If they are statistically proven and reliable these nuances are good to know.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,654
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:20pm Sep 23, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting Barry Cade
trendline for "H&S" is approx. It shows 40 points lower on mine as the trendline isnt definite ie its inconsistent in relation to candle bodies & tails.

For what its worth I may enter trade tomorrow (UK time) based upon daily pivot point. Todays DPP breached a couple of hours ago, so I want confirmation in the morning
Don't waste your time on Daily pivots.

Compared to S&R and DSRI, Daily pivots are about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,655
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:40pm Sep 23, 2009 6:40pm
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER

Trading is a game of probabilities

We want ALL the odds, sods and variables ON OUR SIDE when we make a trade.

Our success on our trades is NO BETTER than 50/50.

When we are trading in the direction of the trend, we have, statistically, a higher probability of the trade going in our favour.

Now, reverse this and trade AGAINST the trend, and statistically, you have INCREASED the probability of the trade GOING AGAINST YOU.

Yes, you can look back at charts where you see good counter trend trades and I have been in many of them but EQUALLY, I have been in counter trend trades where PRICE reversed sharply in a short space of time (to continue the trend) and left me with unexpected and most unwelcome LOSSES.

Remember, Professionals think about LOSING first, Amateurs only think about profit. The # 1 Rule of the Professionals is CAPITAL PRESERVATION. Counter trend trading is NOT capital preservation.

I know many Professional traders who point blank, refuse to counter trend trade.

When Jacko, who trades $2,000+ per pip, was trading EURUSD on the Daily, he NEVER used to counter trend trade. The times when he decided to try it, he always LOST.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,656
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:54pm Sep 23, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting Alexandra
Surf the wave, not the ripple. Yes, sometimes it's a big contra ripple if overextended, but......why?

That ripple may likely be done on day 3.
""That ripple may likely be done on day 3.""

But you forgot to state the price.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,657
  • Edited 8:02pm Sep 23, 2009 7:51pm | Edited 8:02pm
What - are you kidding? You know I don't care what price it is as long as there is some positive PA and a well-defined stop! Failure to break yesterday's low if you insist! A little above 8954 if you want a number out of my hat -- that would be a gift though.

Seriously - how about that weekly S/R....it's been touched already, so I am happy to enter here right now for a reasonable R/R.

Notably, the rally stalled at a corresponsing static weekly point - I believe someone pointed that out previously.
  • #5,658
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:01pm Sep 23, 2009 8:01pm
Quoting Alexandra
What - are you kidding? You know I don't care what price it is as long as there is some positive PA and a well-defined stop! Failure to break yesterday's low if you insist! A little above 8954 if you want a number out of my hat -- that would be a gift though.

Seriously - how about that weekly S/R....it's been touched already, so I am happy to enter here right now.
Err...............I was only joking! Had you forgotten I don't believe in giving out signals/trades?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,659
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:05pm Sep 23, 2009 8:05pm
I'm with ya....you should have seen my face! I was gonna use that word "crack" again, but you have a better track record.
  • #5,660
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:21pm Sep 23, 2009 8:21pm
Amateurs manage money by taking RISK

Professionals manage RISK by taking money.


Professionals look for a reason NOT TO TAKE A TRADE



Zero Sum game – SOMEONE HAS TO LOSE



When you trade, you are accepting RISK
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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