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  • #5,621
  • Sep 23, 2009 11:51am Sep 23, 2009 11:51am
Quoting elitejets
What is it that Dr Joe says again ... it keeps going up (or down) until?

Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you ... EURNZD
395 to go to the big round 2.0000 number
Oh why isn't she one of my pairs?

Think I will ask my broker for her as my Christmas present this year!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,622
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:21pm Sep 23, 2009 12:21pm
Hi Strat...I think i've found a great thread!!

First of all...let me introduce myself...
I'm an italian 35 years guy...so english is not my native language...so sorry in advance for my errors
Like you... love music, music is part of my life, as I am a professional Dj and I am a radio station speaker...

I found this thread some days ago...after partecipating in some other few threads here...
I'm reading the entire thread (now at page 200)...because I think i've found a really good place to improve my trading learnings...I mean "real trading"...

I've been a stock trader in the past (losing)
I've been (and I am) also an option trader (more losing than not)
Now I would be also a forex trader...but not losing so for now my trades are only on demo...
I've tried some scalping (too stressful), i've tried day trading (too musch noise)..so I was searching for something more "serious"...and here I am!!

I hope I will can contribute to the thread...and first of all I hope i will learn what you are teaching here...I will do every necessary step...

First step: complete reading the thread
Second Step: Subscribing to the Path of Learning
And then...be an active part of this thread...

If I can..

Chris
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #5,623
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:38pm Sep 23, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi Strat...I think i've found a great thread!!

First of all...let me introduce myself...
I'm an italian 35 years guy...so english is not my native language...so sorry in advance for my errors
Like you... love music, music is part of my life, as I am a professional Dj and I am a radio station speaker...

I found this thread some days ago...after partecipating in some other few threads here...
I'm reading the entire thread (now at page 200)...because I think i've found a really good place to improve my trading learnings...I mean "real trading"......
Glad you can join us, Chris! Your English is good, don’t worry – probably much better than my “slang” Yorkshire English! I envy you Europeans that can speak and write several languages – we native English speakers are very lazy and useless when it comes to learning other languages. The only Italian I know is just enough to get me in trouble with the Italian ladies – Ti amo!

Back to trading. If you are still trading Options, and if you want to seriously make money trading forex, my advice to you is stop trading Options. Trading Forex, even the Worker (Daily) charts is full time and needs all your focus and concentration. Options or anything else will prove too much of a distraction for you.

On your “First Step”, please make sure you UNDERSTAND in addition to reading. Reading without understanding is an absolute waste of time.

Send Naws a PM with your details to register on The Path of Learning.

Ask any questions you like but make sure the answers are not already on the thread first.

Benvenuto!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,624
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:04pm Sep 23, 2009 2:04pm
With 2 hours to go to NY close, here’s an interesting observation:

The following pairs are fighting resistance:

AUDJPY
AUDUSD
CADJPY
CHFJPY
EURJPY
EURUSD

EURGBP is already bouncing off resistance.

The following pairs are resting/bouncing off support:

GBPCHF
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY

So, could this be where everyone backs off, takes time out and prepares themselves for a strong run to push through the boundaries

OR,

Is it the turning point for trends?

I gazed into my “Back To The Future” Crystal Ball but all I saw was a California Snowman.

Maybe our resident funny mentalist can look into hers and advise us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,625
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:21pm Sep 23, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting strat
With 2 hours to go to NY close, here’s an interesting observation:...
Great info. As Ive just started looking at long time frames again after a few months on intraday, it was helpful for me to update my charts.

Ive not added s/r lines to all charts but I have updated fibs. Simply by logging these it has helped me, so if it helps anyone else, take a look at where these currencies currently sit:-
AUDJPY 50% fib from weekly high 20/7/08
AUDUSD 62% fib from weekly high 13/7/08
CADJPY bouncing up from 38% fib from high 20/7/08. Support.
CHFJPY weekly upper trend line pennant formation
EURJPY struggling to keep above 38% weekly from high 20/7/08
EURUSD bounced off 62% fib from weekly high 13/7/08. 76% at 51567. 550 to go!

EURGBP 50% fib from high 28/12/08

GBPCHF weekly rising lower trendline penetrated last week. Retracing back up to this.
GBPJPY 62% daily fib from 28/4/09 & 148.00 psych confluence
GBPUSD 38% fib from high 5/8/09, altho not a major fib. However, today could be a gravestone doji!
USDCAD yesterday bounced up from at 62% fib from low 4/11/04
USDCHF 76% fib from low 16/3/08
USDJPY 76% fib from low 18/1/09

All worth watching closely!

Thx boss.
DMW (Dead Man Writing)
Oh, btw, Back into the Future ws album by Man in '73ish. Televised in a documentary at the time.
  • #5,626
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:29pm Sep 23, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Great info. As Ive just started looking at long time frames again after a few months on intraday, it was helpful for me to update my charts.

Ive not added s/r lines to all charts but I have updated fibs. Simply by logging these it has helped me, so if it helps anyone else, take a look at where these currencies currently sit:-
AUDJPY...
""Thx boss.
DMW (Dead Man Writing)""

You may want to change those initials - on here, DMW = Dicks and Merchant Wankers!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,627
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:36pm Sep 23, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting strat
""Thx boss.
DMW (Dead Man Writing)""

You may want to change those initials - on here, DMW = Dicks and Merchant Wankers!

Well you called me Zombie & Dead Man. You will probably have cause to refer to me as a DMW as well at some stage!
  • #5,628
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:47pm Sep 23, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Great info. As Ive just started looking at long time frames again after a few months on intraday, it was helpful for me to update my charts.

Ive not added s/r lines to all charts but I have updated fibs. Simply by logging these it has helped me, so if it helps anyone else, take a look at where these currencies currently sit:-
AUDJPY 50% fib from weekly high 20/7/08
AUDUSD 62% fib from weekly high 13/7/08
CADJPY bouncing up from 38% fib from high 20/7/08. Support.
CHFJPY...
If you put fibs on the swings then you will see even the ones you think are not big levels are at 50fibs (cable is 50 fib of last swing, USDCAD etc.)
Nice analysis.
  • #5,629
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:52pm Sep 23, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting strat

So, could this be where everyone backs off, takes time out and prepares themselves for a strong run to push through the boundaries

OR,

Is it the turning point for trends?

I gazed into my “Back To The Future” Crystal Ball but all I saw was a California Snowman.

Maybe our resident funny mentalist can look into hers and advise us.
Its hard to figure out ... The FOMC statement was the most positive it has been about the economy in years but they did not announce they were going to raise rates or started scaling out of the QE.
They extended the time period for the treasury purchase programme but did not say they would buy any more, likewise with the agency (MBS) purchase programme.
Maybe the market figured out that although they are leaving the punchbowl out they are not refilling it and stocks will take a breather and the dollar can take a rest too.
Lets see where we go from here.
  • #5,630
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:57pm Sep 23, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting elitejets
Its hard to figure out ... The FOMC statement was the most positive it has...
Another reason why I'm not into funny mentals and news announcements as I firmly believe it is already factored into the market by the time we hear the news.

But I know Alexandra thinks different and that is good and one of the many reasons she is on here.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,631
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:13pm Sep 23, 2009 4:13pm
cant comment on these long trades, but intraday they are positioned by the Big Dogs to maximise their profit, not necessarily in the direction that the news would indicate price should move.

Sterling was manipulated up yesterday with a further rise today for todays news that actually wasnt news, so the BDs can sweep the Herd & activate auto trade buys so BDs can sell again.

Not sure how to handle this on long trades, maybe I havent read enough of thread.

To what extent do you guys trade / avoid major news days?
  • #5,632
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:20pm Sep 23, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Barry Cade
To what extent do you guys trade / avoid major news days?
In my opinion (for what it's worth) news tends to be an irrelevance on Daily bars and isn't worth worrying about. You can see the underlying sentiment the further away you stand and one or two news announcements aren't generally going to 'stress' you out too much, which i guess is the point of Strat's approach (aside from making money, of course).
  • #5,633
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:24pm Sep 23, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting Barry Cade
cant comment on these long trades, but intraday they are positioned by the Big Dogs to maximise their profit, not necessarily in the direction that the news would indicate price should move.

Sterling was manipulated up yesterday with a further rise today for todays news that actually wasnt news, so the BDs can sweep the Herd & activate auto trade buys so BDs can sell again.

Not sure how to handle this on long trades, maybe I havent read enough of thread.

To what extent do you guys trade / avoid major news days?
Most of us have been in the trenches (short time frames) and suffered the wrath of the big boys around news announcements so we are well aware of their games.

We are affected but to a lesser extent depending on the severity of the news announcement and the crowd’s subsequent reaction.

My recommendation on news announcements is to protect positions, particularly profits by moving the SL. Occasionally we get taken out when there is a severe spike but the beauty of the Worker is that by the time the next day comes around and we are ready to position for our trades, the dust has settled, the light is shining again and we are back to status quo.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,634
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:41pm Sep 23, 2009 4:41pm
I'm posting this to further understand how to trade the trend, how much importance of a price action shown in a certain area/line.

Attached are the EUR/GBP weekly and Daily charts.

WEEKLY:The Overall major trend is BULLISH dating back to year of 2000. Pair experienced a pullback between the period of Dec 2008 to June 2009. Then resume the bullish trend is from 22nd June 2009 up till now. Price is also currently above both the weekly 20 and 50. Hence indicating bullish trend.

DAILY: Tuesday's bar has closed as a BEOB. Price is also at a confluence of trendline, 50fib and resistance line @ 0.9082ish. So everthing is lining up for a SELL? But, price is still currently above daily 20 and 50, indicating bullish trend and it might not be over just yet.

So, my question is, IF I am to SELL EURGBP now, would it be considered as TRADING AGAINST THE TREND (which is a no no in strat's method)? When there's a lot of nice confluence showing a signal to enter a trade, in this case SELL EURGBP, WE SHOULD ALWAYS PLACE THE TREND AS 1ST PRIORITY?

I hope my question is clear enough, if not please feel to let me know then I will reconstruct it. Thanks in advance for the comments and feedbacks. Appreciate it :d
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eg weekly.gif Size: 18 KB
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #5,635
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:44pm Sep 23, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting elitejets
US Crude today breached a support line it has held since the Feb lows.
It will be interesting to see if it continues ... candle not closed yet.
Something I keep an eye on across all the major commodities for sustainability of the trend is the cross of the 50 EMA and 25 EMA on the daily. There are a few new generation "active" strategy products that I have seen that use that cross to generate buy and sell signals and they have billions of dollars of High Net Worth money sunk into them. They wait for the cross and then spend several days buying or selling. Last buy signal cross we had was in mid March on WTI. Just a thought on reading your post, would be nice if that support line stays breached tomorrow.

I've been travelling on business, catching up on the threads and hopefully post some more soon.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,636
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm
Hi Strat,

Shooting Star on NZD.

Big Boss and Boss are UP. Is this a good example of when to take profits if you were in the uptrend and not an opportunity to short at this point?

This would be in contrast to the USDJPY ATM trade you talked about yesterday (which was in the direction of the Boss and Big Boss trend).

Corbett
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,637
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm Sep 23, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting strat
Most of us have been in the trenches (short time frames) and suffered the wrath of the big boys around news announcements so we are well aware of their games....
good idea with the SL. Will do that.
  • #5,638
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:51pm Sep 23, 2009 4:51pm
Nic - my view on EurNzd - at a critical juncture maybe? Has the DSRI been broken or will it be tested? The last major UP DSRI is at 1.8665 ish, so we could see it down there. Patience as ever...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,639
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:54pm Sep 23, 2009 4:54pm
For those on FXPro don't forget to open the Market watch button and Rt click and press "Show all" - you will need to select the Nov Crude contract as the Oct one has now stopped.

Keep an eye on this so you keep up to date charts. You don't need to redraw all you SR, Fib levels etc either as I found out this week!!

Just save the current template (such as oil), select the new Fut contract and then select the Oil template - hey presto - all SR levels, DSRI etc restored. Then just delete that template - repeat on each chart that has expired!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,640
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:01pm Sep 23, 2009 5:01pm
Quoting Grimweasel
For those on FXPro don't forget to open the Market watch button and Rt click and press "Show all" - you will need to select the Nov Crude contract as the Oct one has now stopped.

Keep an eye on this so you keep up to date charts. You don't need to redraw all you SR, Fib levels etc either as I found out this week!!

Just save the current template (such as oil), select the new Fut contract and then select the Oil template - hey presto - all SR levels, DSRI etc restored. Then just delete that template - repeat on...
Hi Grimweasel.. I've just opened a demo on FxPro thanks to you guys' recommdation. I've noticed that FxPro does not have Sunday bar?
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
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