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AUD/USD

  • #4,241
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:54am Sep 23, 2009 9:54am
Quoting thadakman
FOMC should provide some real nice volitility in a few hours... what are everyone's targets?

Ideally, I'd like to dump my short position at 0.8650 and then re-short later today (or this week) in the 0.8800's; it'd b great to book some small profits today and then some big profits next week while reducing overall risk if this thing wants to run to 0.8900 before the big fall.
i like the way you play by saving some ammo and ready for the next battle
  • #4,242
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:55am Sep 23, 2009 9:55am
Quoting thadakman
Oil Inventory news that broke is dollar positive... AUD looking to test 0.8700
i said it earlier today that it wont cut throught when everyone else thought it ll go up
divergtion on MACD & rsi and luck of momentum , it cant pss throught big level like this without big momentum
i think it ll bounce of the 87 level a bit but it ll fall down again to 8680 8650 8620
  • #4,243
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:55am Sep 23, 2009 9:55am
stop taken now add more long kiwi
  • #4,244
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:56am Sep 23, 2009 9:56am
Quoting ben10
thanks Puks, hows trading buddy?
just keeping my head above waters.
  • #4,245
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:58am Sep 23, 2009 9:58am
Quoting ben10
i like the way you play by saving some ammo and ready for the next battle
i just think that there is no big fall any soon ,, i think the big fall will be by dec. or jan ,
untill then it ll keep bouncing up and down in overall up trend
  • #4,246
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:59am Sep 23, 2009 9:59am
http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...6m_7def817.png
  • #4,247
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:05am Sep 23, 2009 10:05am
Quoting puks
just keeping my head above waters.
so do i ! i took loss on few other pairs
  • #4,248
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:07am Sep 23, 2009 10:07am
Quoting Jesus4748
i just think that there is no big fall any soon ,, i think the big fall will be by dec. or jan ,
untill then it ll keep bouncing up and down in overall up trend
by dec 09? why is that? so what do you think the price level in dec?
  • #4,249
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:13am Sep 23, 2009 10:13am
Quoting puks
G'day Patience,

How are you travelling?

Any chance of this beast going down below .8650/.8600 tonight after Fed's decision?

Cheers
G'day Mate

Your guess is as good as mine. Never predictable. Pump and dump maybe?

Just as long as you survive to trade another day is all that matters

Safe trades
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,250
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:15am Sep 23, 2009 10:15am
Quoting ben10
i like the way you play by saving some ammo and ready for the next battle
Saving ammo is the most important thing... that's one of the reasons why I only scale in now; if I happen to get a good initial entry I'll get a decent profit, but if my entry is off and my 2nd entry gets filled I give myself a chance to get an even bigger profit... if that entry is still too early and I get in on my 3rd entry, this is usually the time where I start looking to break even instead of profiting, which I usually have a chance to (or at least cut that loss drastically)...

That happened to me on NZD, (inital entry at 0.7200, then 0.7258 then 0.7300... I just decided to break even on it at that point since I was already short the AUD, so I thought it would be better to limit my overall risk. Although I could've actually profited decent on the NZD (earlier this morning), I figure there are always more trades that I'll have a chance to time better in the future, but only if I have enough capital left to do so.
  • #4,251
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:16am Sep 23, 2009 10:16am
Quoting ben10
by dec 09? why is that? so what do you think the price level in dec?
its my own assesment to it adding to it some research from some websites for long term targets
http://forecasts.org/ausd.htm
http://www.marketvector.com/exchange-rate/ausd.htm

and Logicly still The Aud one of the best economies in the world and doing well with all its economic reports and usd wont grap the lead that easy in the short term ,, like next month or something
  • #4,252
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:21am Sep 23, 2009 10:21am
Quoting ben10
by dec 09? why is that? so what do you think the price level in dec?
i think it ll go around 0.95 before the big fall
this was the last year highs
  • #4,253
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:22am Sep 23, 2009 10:22am
Heads up for any longer term traders...
GBP looks like a great shorting opportunity, nice head and shoulders on the daily chart, if it doesn't break the 1.6750 it can have the potential to go all the way back down to 1.5000 (given plenty of time of course)... confirmation at the break of the neckline at around 1.6100.

1.6400 seems like a very nice entry today for those who like to bite early, but 1.6500-1.6600 would be ideal after FOMC if the dollar gets smashed... the risk is a couple hundred pips but the reward (remember long term) can be over 1000 pips! (or even 400 much sooner, as a test of 1.6000 could likely come post Window dressing late next week).
  • #4,254
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:23am Sep 23, 2009 10:23am
Quoting Jesus4748
its my own assesment to it adding to it some research from some websites for long term targets
http://forecasts.org/ausd.htm
http://www.marketvector.com/exchange-rate/ausd.htm

and Logicly still The Aud one of the best economies in the world and doing well with all its economic reports and usd wont grap the lead that easy in the short term ,, like next month or something
thanks for the link i save to my fav
  • #4,255
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:26am Sep 23, 2009 10:26am
Quoting ben10
thanks for the link i save to my fav
ur welcome ,
i have it on my fav list too
they r a good reference and they keep updated frequently
  • #4,256
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:33am Sep 23, 2009 10:33am
Quoting thadakman
Heads up for any longer term traders...
GBP looks like a great shorting opportunity, nice head and shoulders on the daily chart, if it doesn't break the 1.6750 it can have the potential to go all the way back down to 1.5000 (given plenty of time of course)... confirmation at the break of the neckline at around 1.6100.

1.6400 seems like a very nice entry today for those who like to bite early, but 1.6500-1.6600 would be ideal after FOMC if the dollar gets smashed... the risk is a couple hundred pips but the reward (remember long term) can be over...
i used to do some GBP/USD trading untill i got some big loose on it ,, i never like trading this pair cause it can make 100 pip move down in 15 mins ,, volatility on them is very high ,, i took a position once before and next time i m looking after exactly 15 mins ,, i m negative with 150 pips , i didnt put stop loss on it and i had to take this loose ,, and it made it again 2 days ago with a fall of 200 pips in 1 day ,,, and sometimes it does the unexpected too so , i would never think of trading this pair in the mean time ,,,
  • #4,257
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:38am Sep 23, 2009 10:38am
Quoting Jesus4748
i used to do some GBP/USD trading untill i got some big loose on it ,, i never like trading this pair cause it can make 100 pip move down in 15 mins ,, volatility on them is very high ,, i took a position once before and next time i m looking after exactly 15 mins ,, i m negative with 150 pips , i didnt put stop loss on it and i had to take this loose ,, and it made it again 2 days ago with a fall of 200 pips in 1 day ,,, and sometimes it does the unexpected too so , i would never think of trading this pair in the mean time ,,,
I agree this is a risky pair; of course, the potential for big profits are also huge b/c of this... I got sucked in shorting just before that spike in the 1.7000's a while ago and had to sell at a decent loss; of course, it came tumbling down ever since and would've been a huge profit... timing this pair right is crucial.

I mostly just trade the AUD b/c it's a lot tamer.
  • #4,258
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:42am Sep 23, 2009 10:42am
Quoting thadakman
Heads up for any longer term traders...
GBP looks like a great shorting opportunity, nice head and shoulders on the daily chart, if it doesn't break the 1.6750 it can have the potential to go all the way back down to 1.5000 (given plenty of time of course)... confirmation at the break of the neckline at around 1.6100.

1.6400 seems like a very nice entry today for those who like to bite early, but 1.6500-1.6600 would be ideal after FOMC if the dollar gets smashed... the risk is a couple hundred pips but the reward (remember long term) can be over...
i look into it and found the targets at 1.5976, 1.5604 and 1.4998
  • #4,259
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:43am Sep 23, 2009 10:43am
you said to short the GBP, but against what?? HEy Im New.
  • #4,260
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:45am Sep 23, 2009 10:45am
Quoting ben10
i look into it and found the targets at 1.5976, 1.5604 and 1.4998
I'm getting my 1.5000 area target by measuring the top of the head with the neckline and using that distance to target what should be the minimal downside if the neckline breaks... also, 1.5000 is a huge psychological area that would warrant an eventual test given time if 1.6000 breaks and can't hold anymore.
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