AUD/USD | Page 212 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #4,221
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:06am Sep 23, 2009 12:06am
Reports on bloomberg this morning indicate that Fed is talking about or laying a groundwork for exit strategy.

Is that a good signal for strong USD in the immediate term?

I am not doubting this pair will move to .90 but before that it should retrace back to around .84-85.


Its either tonight or never.
  • #4,222
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:29am Sep 23, 2009 12:29am
Quoting puks
Reports on bloomberg this morning indicate that Fed is talking about or laying a groundwork for exit strategy.

Is that a good signal for strong USD in the immediate term?

I am not doubting this pair will move to .90 but before that it should retrace back to around .84-85.


Its either tonight or never.
With fed fund futures pricing in a rate hike in the first half of next year, the market will be looking for some positive reinforcement from Bernanke.

In the best case scenario, the Fed will upgrade their assessment of the economy, taper off their mortgage backed securities asset purchase program and remind the markets that they are working on an exit strategy. At the same time, the Fed is not in a rush to raise interest rates and therefore the fed funds rate will remain “exceptionally low” for “an extended period of time.” This scenario SHOULD be negative for the dollar.

If the tone of the FOMC statement is more upbeat, it should instead be initially positive for the dollar.
Dollar could see some upside if the Fed to recognize the improvements and replace the phrase “economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time” with something more moderate.
  • #4,223
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:43am Sep 23, 2009 12:43am
Quoting fammira
With fed fund futures pricing in a rate hike in the first half of next year, the market will be looking for some positive reinforcement from Bernanke.

In the best case scenario, the Fed will upgrade their assessment of the economy, taper off their mortgage backed securities asset purchase program and remind the markets that they are working on an exit strategy. At the same time, the Fed is not in a rush to raise interest rates and therefore the fed funds rate will remain “exceptionally low” for “an extended period of time.” This scenario SHOULD...
Last FOMC the dollar had a nice initial pop but then sold off... may want to lock in some profits if that happens again and then plan to re-short again later.
  • #4,224
  • Sep 23, 2009 1:14am Sep 23, 2009 1:14am
Quoting thadakman
Last FOMC the dollar had a nice initial pop but then sold off... may want to lock in some profits if that happens again and then plan to re-short again later.
If that happens, I plan to ride the swing.

close all positions at dollar pullback (50 pips)
re-enter all positions in long (70 pips)

close the long positions and re-enter short.

We'll be basically where we are - at around .8770 mark but if this happens, we'll make a profit (loss minimise a loss) by around 100 odd pips.

- 2 pip
  • #4,225
  • Edited 2:25am Sep 23, 2009 2:13am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting thadakman
Last FOMC the dollar had a nice initial pop but then sold off... may want to lock in some profits if that happens again and then plan to re-short again later.
while it could make sense to expect similar reactions to important data such as payrolls (where the first move is very often a false move), it's hard or even impossible to compare a central bank meeting with the previous one because similar statements in different moments can produce opposite effects

briefly, market expects the tone to be, if not positive, at least not upbeat given the fact that economy is on the recovery way.
If this will be the case, dollar could be pushed even lower (though I really don't see much more downside after all that happened in the last two weeks).
If FOMC should instead warn using dovish tones, then profit taking on risk aversion currencies will likely to be seen in the market for the next two - three weeks

I personally expect the FED to be cautious, underlining that economy is recovering but also that the tone of this recovery is still expected to be weak.
Such a mixed tone could -generally speaking- generate no big reaction, even meaning that the FED will not touch rates for many months ahead.
But considering the rally we saw in equities and in risky currencies, I still believe the FOMC meeting will turn into some strenght for the dollar.

Of course, we need to wait and see, this is only an idea I am up on
  • #4,226
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:34am Sep 23, 2009 2:34am
aud seems well supported by fundamentals and sentiment. i'm personally still long audusd and i am looking to add positions at 8720 and 8680. 8770 seems like a strong resistance but once 8770 is broken convincingly, i believe 8900 would be an easy target.
  • #4,227
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:38am Sep 23, 2009 2:38am
Quoting puks
If that happens, I plan to ride the swing.

close all positions at dollar pullback (50 pips)
re-enter all positions in long (70 pips)

close the long positions and re-enter short.

We'll be basically where we are - at around .8770 mark but if this happens, we'll make a profit (loss minimise a loss) by around 100 odd pips.

- 2 pip
i think a head and shoulder will be forming up as i can see a diversion as well on MACD that might refer to a fall down will be happening today ,, but i dont excpect it to fall to much ,,, 87 will be the first stop and 8620 is the point that i know for sure it wont break ,
cause i can see a penate on the 2h and 1 h chart confirming that its a base that is very hard to break now ,,,, and this if it goes down to it and didnt stop in the middle
  • #4,228
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:13am Sep 23, 2009 4:13am
Quoting my30marahaba
hi all i see aud to be going up, daily & weekly on the bullish pressure
i'm long for this aud with tight sl 35 pip here we go
here the updated let see how far this aud to be going up .....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud2.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #4,229
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:27am Sep 23, 2009 4:27am
Hi Guys

Bank of Scotland's Daily Market Strategy

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BoSMarketStrategyDaily-23rdSep.pdf   100 KB | 436 downloads


Good trades today. Should be wild
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,230
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:35am Sep 23, 2009 5:35am
Quoting Patience
Hi Guys

Bank of Scotland's Daily Market Strategy

Attachment

Good trades today. Should be wild
good job ,,, very helpfull ,, is there a link to get this report daily from ,,??
  • #4,231
  • Sep 23, 2009 7:04am Sep 23, 2009 7:04am
Quoting Jesus4748
good job ,,, very helpfull ,, is there a link to get this report daily from ,,??
No, sorry, no link. If I have a link, I always post it. But I get this report sent to us by email every morning.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,232
  • Sep 23, 2009 7:39am Sep 23, 2009 7:39am
Quoting Patience
No, sorry, no link. If I have a link, I always post it. But I get this report sent to us by email every morning.
G'day Patience,

How are you travelling?

Any chance of this beast going down below .8650/.8600 tonight after Fed's decision?

Cheers
  • #4,233
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:49am Sep 23, 2009 8:49am
nice post folk i like reading the way you guys talk , by the way when is the nesw, i mean what time?
  • #4,234
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:58am Sep 23, 2009 8:58am
Quoting ben10
nice post folk i like reading the way you guys talk , by the way when is the nesw, i mean what time?
4.15 am sydney time.
  • #4,235
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:01am Sep 23, 2009 9:01am
Quoting puks
4.15 am sydney time.
thanks Puks, hows trading buddy?
  • #4,236
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:26am Sep 23, 2009 9:26am
Quoting drfx
aud seems well supported by fundamentals and sentiment. i'm personally still long audusd and i am looking to add positions at 8720 and 8680. 8770 seems like a strong resistance but once 8770 is broken convincingly, i believe 8900 would be an easy target.
Are you looking to sell all your long AUD positions at 0.8900? If so, do you plan to go Short the AUD at any time, 0.9000 perhaps?
  • #4,237
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:29am Sep 23, 2009 9:29am
FOMC should provide some real nice volitility in a few hours... what are everyone's targets?

Ideally, I'd like to dump my short position at 0.8650 and then re-short later today (or this week) in the 0.8800's; it'd b great to book some small profits today and then some big profits next week while reducing overall risk if this thing wants to run to 0.8900 before the big fall.
  • #4,238
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:37am Sep 23, 2009 9:37am
Oil Inventory news that broke is dollar positive... AUD looking to test 0.8700
  • #4,239
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:43am Sep 23, 2009 9:43am
Quoting thadakman
Oil Inventory news that broke is dollar positive... AUD looking to test 0.8700
my target 8690 then she will back up again IMO

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...dm_a11358e.png
  • #4,240
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:52am Sep 23, 2009 9:52am
move stop to locked in the gain at 8720
145 traders viewing now