Ichimoku forever

Cross inside the Kumo is a neutral signal, i only take the strong ones.

yes better to stay aside till the market calms down and then find urself an entry

Vic

Hey SM,

I understand what you are saying regarding the SL positioning. What the other guys have mentioned regarding simply adjusting lot size to maintain good MM is correct however you are saying,

"I understand this, however I just want to know where to put the SL so that I can then adjust my lot size accordingly", am I right?

For what it's worth I think the following are the key issues that each individual needs to weigh up based on his/her own risk profile

1. SL location is dependent on the TF that you are using for your trade however how much of a buffer to use over and above your key S/R level is really a matter of personal choice. It is also a decision that needs to be fixed for each pair before entering a trade so that it helps you maintain discipline.

I personally tend to take the attitude that if the price action holds above my S/R area then I probably got my entry point wrong and therefore have an equal likelihood that it will continue running against me as it will retracing in my favour. I mean, S/R is called S/R for a reason and once it is broken it more often than not reduces in importance/strength.

Now many will say "but hey, S/R is often tested and holds reversing the price action strongly". This is very true, HOWEVER we need to think about what an S/R level is and why these areas behave in such a fashion. These are points in the price action where for one reason or another a larger than normal quantity of either buy or sell orders have clustered. Why they are there is not important, just the fact they are there and that we know this is all that matters.

The MAJOR issue to consider here is SL hunting. Especially when the market is trading with substantially lower volume as it has recently. This lower volume means that the likelihood of a determined push my smart money to break stops increases as they know there is less strength in the protective positions (SL's, order clusters) than normal - there is simply less of them. For this reason, there is a greater incentive to try and test these areas because once broken you can often see a very strong run through that price that starts to snowball as the clustered orders give way.

For this reason, it is a dangerous game trying to establish the optimum buffer to grant yourself as it is heavily dependent on the pair. Unlike longer term investment assets classes, forex draw down is best not seen as only loss if you are stopped out but rather as a small loss that you are willing to risk for the potential reward. If the price has travelled all the way to test S/R on a longer TF like the 4hr or daily you should really be starting to question the logic of staying in vs accepting it wasn't the best entry point, getting out and waiting for a new strong signal. You can always make the money back if you've got enough equity in your account.

If you want to try and calculate a best estimate then you should establish a level that you are comfortable with based on:
a) Average candle length for the pair in the traded TF - i.e if G/Y average candle length is 35pips then your buffer should be slightly more than this level. This will increase the likelihood of your buffer holding if you know that the SL is positioned slightly above the average candle trading range in that TF. That's not guaranteed logic either obviously but rather looking to the law of averages to try and provide some guidance in an otherwise completely arbitrary scenario

b) Average volume traded in the pair. Pairs with low average traded volume such as the A/J, N/U, U/NOK will not take as much to have their clustered orders blown away as there is simply less of them. For this reason your buffer should be more conservative. On the massively traded pairs such as the E/G and E/U it takes a much bigger trading account to take on the major institutional positions at these S/R levels.
c) Always add a pip or two past your broker's average spread range for the pair to your estimated SL point so that you don't get bumped by broker spread.

Myself, I add my broker spread + 1-2pips to the planned S/R point and then calculate my MM allowing a max of 2% in any trade. Then it's a matter of adjusting my lot size accordingly.

In reality, on the longer TF's you are trading the longer term. Therefore if you have a strong belief that the trend will continue, it will not hurt you to get out and then wait for another chance to ride the trend.

Hope that added some food for thought mate, and I will PM you shortly about the indicator.

Cheers.

I suppose it depends on what time frame you are watching, if you consider the main 6 timeframes (daily, 4hr, 1hr, 30min, 15, 5) for each pair then that's a lot of screens to catch a signal on. Of course, if you're only trading a few timeframes or waiting for a cross on a particular one then cool.
What I really meant was is it's necessary to have a bit more of an undertanding of each pair. I myself watch GBPJPY, GBPUSD, and EURUSD very closely but I do trade a few others. Knowing about S/R points, stop loss ranges, recent moves, etc. with a pair you follow very closely will save you a few times. Of course you can see this on a chart if you look at it for a while. There is a reason why some of the most successful traders only trade a few main pairs and apart from the S/R above, there are also news releases to consider everytime you enter a trade.
I know this because I see it hundreds of times on the forums, someone finds a new system...they have a euraka moment...and then they go absolutely nuts trading the system on multiple pairs all at the same time!
Anyway, it's just my 2 pence worth - obviously different things suit different people so if you can make it work for you then go for it
Happy trading.

Ive noticed some people here in the forum have indicating arrows on their charts.... also that its in MetaTrader.. does anyone know of this for eSignal ?

Thank you very much this is great thread and i look forward to sharpening my sword along with everyone else.

Sell signal on USDJPY in a few minutes?

And sell on the USD/CHF. Possibly 10min or so. Please let me know if I'm on track

EDIT: Although it does look like it's gone through it's daily range. Could be a pull back before another drop...

gettin readyyyyy hehe
wish you luck

cheers

On the 5min chart?

on which TF do u see this position ??!!

Go to the folder on the bottom of vic elc's posts then find the shared online folder and go to resources. There are some indicators in there.

15m

AUDUSD possible entry on 15min soon?

Yeah Good position , but take care the CHF is a very slow currency it might takes you some time to reach your TP

Cheers

And should I be worried that it is almost at the bottom of it's daily move?

i think we will be getting a cross on 4Hrs chart soon and this will be a signal of down move resuming

Please to hear your ten pence worth, I would always read & absorb, whether or not I implimened it is another matter!!

Interesting points you make though...I was just keeping it simple by using the H4 for trend confirmation (although in the past Ive use the Daily for that) and M5 for entry, but from what I can make out your saying you use more than that......why ?...with that many TF's open dont you find you get conflicting signal confirmations ?

cheers

ab

Excellent.

MT4 q. How do I change the charting time? It doesn't seem to be following EST.

i think this depends on your broker , check it with them or change your Broker on MT4

It follows your broker's time.
If you want, you can get an indicator that will adjust it for you - have a search on google or go to www.mql4.com

Oh. Ok, now i'm going to sound completely idiotic, but I created a demo account on the metatrader site and just downloaded their charting software off there and I place my trades through FX Solutions. I can pair up my fxsolution account with the MT4 charting and trade directly from the charting software?