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Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

  • #61
  • Sep 21, 2009 10:38pm Sep 21, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting birdt
137, the possession of a potentially profitable strategy does not automatically entitle you to the keys to the mint.
absolutely. anything potential is unproven. you probably just meant 'profitable strategy' though.

Quoting birdt
In my experience, defining trading rules that work is relatively easy,
rules are concrete, not abstract. this means you have a 'when A happens do B' rule set.

Quoting birdt
execution is the difficult bit, and as the numbers get bigger so does the fear and greed. I guess some people are born with the ability to detach themselves, but the rest of us have to acclimatise slowly.
you say you have rules and then you say that if you had a bigger account it would be harder to execute your strategy. so your rules tell you to enter a trade but you hesitate because you are trading with a significant amount of capital? if this is the case you will be assigned a co-worker who will execute the trades of your winning strategy. all you have to do is check your rules and determine whether a valid trade has presented itself, and then tell your co-worker that this has occurred.

or perhaps your approach is a hunched based, abstract strategy? and you're perception of reality is so altered by a bigger account balance that you begin to see charts differently? however improbable that may sound there is an easy remedy to it! simply wager a token amount per trade for three to six months until you have adjusted to the size of your new account. if your strategy is a sure thing, any fund manager would be out of their mind not to use this option. you should even be able to trade your initial account at the same time.
change the future, not the past
  • #62
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:11am Sep 22, 2009 12:11am
Quoting clockwork71
Are those real tears I see? The real issue is expectations. Most people have extremely unrealistic ones.
Tears of frustration by the look of it!

Understandable I guess, 4 years of chasing one's own tail must be exasperating!
  • #63
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:37am Sep 22, 2009 4:37am
Quoting clockwork71
Are those real tears I see? The real issue is expectations. Most people have extremely unrealistic ones.
haha yeah i am starting to get passionate about this new perspective.

i think its healthy to go into any serious business venture with the expectation that you're going to be successful. or else you shouldn't be doing it. or else you're just playing a game.

extremely conservative yet consistent gains is my definition of success for this market. wouldn't you agree with this definition? i don't see how else to define it? extremely conservative sporadic unpredictable gains? that doesn't sound like a very good business model.

and my point, again, is that if you have achieved the definition of success in this market, you are going up the ranks to stardom and beyond. i've gone on runs where i've made 900% profit in a month lol so now do i average that over 20 years and say i make 3.75% per month? or do i measure my results against criteria intended to define what it means to run a successful business - namely consistency.

you seem like a good person and i don't want to insult you but i have to ask: why do you charge people money to belong to your forum if you're a consistently profitable trader?

if i were you i would be calling up the banks and the massive investment firms of the world stating that they are guaranteed to make at least 10%-20% profit in the next year (that's hundreds of thousands in your pocket, at least) because your system 'works'. and if you have the account statements to prove it, there's no problem. but wait, how could you not have them? i mean you charge people money to teach them how to trade, so you must know through and through that you are a successful trader. right? please, find a fault in my logic.
change the future, not the past
  • #64
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:48am Sep 22, 2009 4:48am
Quoting pipmutt
...chasing one's own tail...
lol i think that just about nails it! 'retail forex: a place for false hopes, gambling addictions, shattered dreams and chasing one's own tail - and it's not too good to be true!'.
change the future, not the past
  • #65
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:52am Sep 22, 2009 4:52am
Quoting FX-Petra
I have posted extensivley on this topic in other threads. I am not going to travel that road to perdition again. I will summarize:

The vast majority of retail traders will never accept that the market is random. Period. Double period.
this is just wrong. double period

who thinks of market chaos and randomness has no clue of the true reason of movements and is only scratching the surface of markets. but that's good because it has to be like that.

orderflows, supply&demand is the thing too many call "randonmess". it's about discounts, bargain and position building on missions to exchange big amounts of money or process client orders. if you had insight in a pretty accurate orderbook which is impossible, you would understand.
  • #66
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:55am Sep 22, 2009 4:55am
Quoting 137
lol i think that just about nails it! 'retail forex: a place for false hopes, gambling addictions, shattered dreams and chasing one's own tail - and it's not too good to be true!'.

You obviously speak from your own personal experience.......but one man's trash is another man's treasure, your losses were someone else's gain, you realize that right?
  • #67
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:38am Sep 22, 2009 5:38am
Quoting 137
haha yeah i am starting to get passionate about this new perspective.

i think its healthy to go into any serious business venture with the expectation that you're going to be successful. or else you shouldn't be doing it. or else you're just playing a game.

extremely conservative yet consistent gains is my definition of success for this market. wouldn't you agree with this definition? i don't see how else to define it? extremely conservative sporadic unpredictable gains? that doesn't sound like a very good business model.

and my point, again,...
Simple.

If one has a million dollars in a trading account, 2% a month means something. If one only has 20k - 2% adds up, but only after time. Like most things, it's a math problem.

Then of course there is the fact of all the time put into it. Getting up at odd hours to do webinars so someone in India gets their fair shake, etc. And don't worry - you didn't offend...most people have no idea what their time is worth. I am self-employed, so I know exactly how much mine is.

As far as talking to banks, good luck with that. I do not have the degree in finance they are looking for. Being 38, it's not practical to try and get into an Ivy league school and do it at the moment.

Besides - I am self-employed for so long now, what in the hell would I do with a job?

Chris
  • #68
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:14am Sep 22, 2009 6:14am
Quoting 137
otherwise tell them to call up Buffett and get him to throw them a dime (10 million). why would he not throw spare change at a GUARANTEED (consistent) system, which, when you take compounding into effect, becomes a magical ATM?
Um, Buffett often trades in currency.......here's an example, oh and its not a "dime" that you mentioned.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/05/19/cx_lm_0519buffett.html

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P116165.asp

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...uying-now.aspx

But again, its just one part of the big casino!

That being said, the roulette wheel or the craps table outcome on a given spin/roll are not effected by the gamblers at the table, and surely not effected by the latest financial news, etc.. Any ticker (stock, ETF, indices, currency, etc.) price will be effected by the participants bets in the market (trend), and by perception (news effects on the market). Hence FOREX is NOT entirely random, as some of the previous posts most errantly suggested.

My .101 cents
  • #69
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:30am Sep 22, 2009 8:30am
OK, guys. Trading is boring most of the time... so try this for fun:

Open a 2 demo accounts. With the first account, take whatever postion your system, intuition, or experience tells you to trade. With the second, take the exact opposite position with the same SL and TP rules. Trade these 2 accounts for one month. When the accounts expire, take note of the profit or loss in each one.

Repeat this exercise for 5 more months, for a total of 6 months. Take care to keep an accurate total of each account.

Now I will make some assumptions--which may or may not be true for you in a 6 month period: I will assume 5 trades per day, 20 days per month for a total of 600 trades. 1000 trades is really the minimum we need to exptrapolate, 10,000 is ideal, but this is for fun so let's stick with 600.

Predictions: (According to my modeling)

Approx. 75% of traders will have losses in both accounts after 600 trades. If you bump up to 1000 trades, that percentage goes to just over 80%. At 10,000 trades, just over 95%. What's even more intresting is how much you lose. If you have GREAT discipline and Great Money Management, you losses will be pretty close to your total spread cost. If you are loose with your discipline, it will be much more.

So, if you are bored looking at the screen, try this little experiment over the next 6 months. Be honest with your numbers and don't fudge them. It just may change the way you look at forex.

Regards,
  • #70
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:53am Sep 22, 2009 8:53am
This is Ronald Raygun's profile

http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=43541

Here is an excerpt of a drill I have done from his profile

Quote
Here's a tip for the newbies who are learning to trade.

Ignore all that hype for various systems. Remember--for now--this one fundamental rule: The exit is more important than the entry.

With that in mind, I want you to do the following on a demo account:

1) Toss a coin: Heads long, Tails short
2) Manage the trade as you see fit. If you think the trade is bad, exit.
3) When you exit a trade, go back to step 1.

If you can double your account in less than 50 flips, I consider you a good enough trader to go live. I personally average...

This is a great way to work on trade management. I also wonder if this works for or goes against your model?
  • #71
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:14am Sep 23, 2009 4:14am
Quoting clockwork71
Simple.

If one has a million dollars in a trading account, 2% a month means something. If one only has 20k - 2% adds up, but only after time. Like most things, it's a math problem.

Then of course there is the fact of all the time put into it. Getting up at odd hours to do webinars so someone in India gets their fair shake, etc. And don't worry - you didn't offend...most people have no idea what their time is worth. I am self-employed, so I know exactly how much mine is.

As far as talking to banks, good luck with that. I do not have the degree...
i'm not gonna push this but i will say you don't honestly think that there aren't thousands of investors out there, whether they be individuals, companies or institutions, that wouldn't be ecstatic about the prospect of using a proven system which is gonna net them 10-30% year after year?

i mean no manufacturing or inventory, no product development, no marketing, no etc ect? and they would be unbalanced mentally not to consider coming up with such a methodology an education in itself, or simply misinformed which in that case they wouldn't be worthy of a business relationship anyway.

Quoting clockwork71
Besides - I am self-employed for so long now, what in the hell would I do with a job?

Chris
i hear ya! i'm still a university student lol
change the future, not the past
  • #72
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:21am Sep 23, 2009 4:21am
one thing which you will learn- or not- later in your trading career is the fact, that 90% of the game is the mindset. there are a bunch of systems which put you on the right side of the trade 60% of the time which is enough to make $$.
the weak link is the trader behind it, not sticking to rules and just trading based on indicators. proper MM and steady sticking to rules is the thing which makes you money. the system is only the smallest part of the game and that's why systems peddlers and guys still looking for a better system will continue to fail since the psychological side is their problem in the game.
  • #73
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:23am Sep 23, 2009 4:23am
Quoting Machination
Um, Buffett often trades in currency.......here's an example, oh and its not a "dime" that you mentioned.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/05/19/cx_lm_0519buffett.html

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P116165.asp

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...uying-now.aspx

But again, its just one part of the big casino!
yeah, exactly! if you could prove to Buffett you had a system that consistently made money in forex, he still wouldn't believe it lol. and if he did he would probably throw like 20 billion on it.

so yes, a consistent proven system = billions.
change the future, not the past
  • #74
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:27am Sep 23, 2009 4:27am
Quoting 137
yeah, exactly! if you could prove to Buffett you had a system that consistently made money in forex, he still wouldn't believe it lol. and if he did he would probably throw like 20 billion on it.

so yes, a consistent proven system = billions.
lol...you have to learn much and one of the first things is to understand what such toiletpapers write is not for your advantage, nor proven but is seen as status quo due to the fact that the newspaper said so.
  • #75
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:31am Sep 23, 2009 4:31am
Quoting 137
you don't honestly think that there aren't thousands of investors out there, whether they be individuals, companies or institutions, that wouldn't be ecstatic about the prospect of using a proven system which is gonna net them 10-30% year after year?
What makes you think there aren't, but proven systems are rarely offered for sale and at the end of the day it's not the system which makes money, it's the trader who trades it. The alternative for them is investing in one of the funds which trades a proven system, and thousands do just that!


Quoting 137
i'm still a university student lol
lol right, that explains a lot, all supposed trailblazing-theory and hot air....while in the real world.....
  • #76
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:52am Sep 23, 2009 4:52am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
one thing which you will learn- or not- later in your trading career is the fact, that 90% of the game is the mindset. there are a bunch of systems which put you on the right side of the trade 60% of the time which is enough to make $$.
the weak link is the trader behind it, not sticking to rules and just trading based on indicators. proper MM and steady sticking to rules is the thing which makes you money. the system is only the smallest part of the game and that's why systems peddlers and guys still looking for a better system will continue to...
1) make an EA then

2) ok so there's an intangible, mystical quality to the system which can't be explained based on time / price / news. what the hell would that be?

3) if the system actually can be explained to a trader able to follow it, voila! we have a winner!

4) over 5 years collect between 10 million and 10 billion dollars. sweet!

5) where are all these systems?

and how can you say the system is the smallest part? (the following is relative of course):

following the rules = easy

using proper mm = even easier

obtaining proven consistent profit making system which will generate profit year after year for anyone who uses it properly thus negating the luck factor = freakin impossible or else super connected people like Buffett and Gates would be making billions upon billions year after year using these easily accessible systems floating throughout the internet and would be thinking how to use these profits to benefit the new world country through the Clinton Global Initiative, or something cool like that lol.
change the future, not the past
  • #77
  • Sep 23, 2009 4:55am Sep 23, 2009 4:55am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
lol...you have to learn much and one of the first things is to understand what such toiletpapers write is not for your advantage, nor proven but is seen as status quo due to the fact that the newspaper said so.
so Buffett doesn't invest billions in currency? pardon me for saying but that sounds like quite a conspiracy.
change the future, not the past
  • #78
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:06am Sep 23, 2009 5:06am
Quoting 137
so Buffett doesn't invest billions in currency? pardon me for saying but that sounds like quite a conspiracy.
i don't get it and am not referring to that he IS NOT trading currencies, of course he does! i am referring about the OUTCOME of his trades. -ve/ +ve

i won't waste any more time arguing. i just made my point. i am not a systems trader, i am only trading discretionary with price & volume since i never liked indicator based system and they do not make me feel comfortable.

i will quit posting here since you again proved of being clueless and just somehow want to argue.
it is a fact that the trader is the one who makes a system winning/losing! the mindset is the thing most of the traders to not work on and that is why they fail. you might come to that point if the game hasn't finally maed you feel scared
  • #79
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:22am Sep 23, 2009 5:22am
Quoting pipmutt
What makes you think there aren't,
i think there are thousands of potential investors out there, that's what i said. (maybe i'm misunderstanding what you mean?)

Quoting pipmutt
but proven systems are rarely offered for sale and at the end of the day it's not the system which makes money, it's the trader who trades it.
right and that's why i was suggesting to this person to develop a business relationship with one of these entities which wouldn't necessarily require selling their system.


Quoting pipmutt
The alternative for them is investing in one of the funds which trades a proven system, and thousands do just that!
look out! these funds are gonna be worth 10's of billions! economy - proof ATMs here we come! or wait, those systems aren't consistent? nooooooo!


Quoting pipmutt
lol right, that explains a lot, all supposed trailblazing-theory and hot air....while in the real world.....
HILARIOUS! i'm in university! thanks Morpheus!

hahaha that was in good fun, i'd prefer to avoid an argument
change the future, not the past
  • #80
  • Sep 23, 2009 5:28am Sep 23, 2009 5:28am
Quoting 137

and how can you say the system is the smallest part? (the following is relative of course):

following the rules = easy

using proper mm = even easier


"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is."

Jan La Van De Snepscheut


Ever wondered why your holy grail EA's failed to work, and what does that tell you about the market? Perhaps you have been barking up the wrong tree. Time for a new approach and/or a brain wipe.

I have constructed several trading plans that have demonstrated various levels of success, but I don't see how any of them could be programmed into an EA, they all need to be processed by a human. Unless of course you can compile all the experiences, observations and revelations of several years of work into a computer program, the computer in your possession most equipped to make the most intelligent decisions with your money is your brain. Even the hedge funds and major players use buy and sell programs only when the decision is made to trigger them.

So the market can not be formulated, there is no magic equation that gives you the key to the mint (or at least none that you or I have found), but does this mean the market is random?

And I must say, this fantasy of skipping down to the end of the rainbow to pick up your daily wheelbarrow full of cash when you have a profitable strategy is completely ridiculous. Sounds like you are still on the hunt for the Holy Grail. Read some books by people who have traded other people's money for a living and see that this business is not entirely without diseconomies of scale. I recommend Marty Schwartz's Pit Bull. He's a day-trader/scalper, a very profitable one too, but he found his limits the hard way.
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