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  • #5,541
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:15am Sep 22, 2009 2:15am
Quoting Blackeagle
One,

It is definitely an HS pattern, and attached is what I see on my chart. I took short trade at the close of 14/9 bar due to evening star, breaking of short term DSRI (a different way of trading HSs, short term view) and a very good RR and exited yesterday.

Regarding current situation, as long as 1/9 low holds, major trend is still up and I favour long trades with PA if yesterday's high is penetrated (again very good RR). You can find yourself in the fat city in case of breaking of 1/9 low and hence HS neck.
I hope this helps.
as a rule H&S is reversal or cont. pattern?
  • #5,542
  • Sep 22, 2009 3:21am Sep 22, 2009 3:21am
Quoting rockk
as a rule H&S is reversal or cont. pattern?
They are reversal patterns, but when they fail, price reverses and continue in trend direction and some traders name this as "continuation pattern".

"Investopedia explains Head And Shoulders Pattern
The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns."
  • #5,543
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:37am Sep 22, 2009 4:37am
Quoting Alexandra
OMG.....Strat......I though you screened the crackheads out of here!
Ive just found this thread. It has some great content which I intend to start applying as I return to longer t/fs.

Irrespective of your success at trading, this sort of comment (& its not the first) doesnt move anyone forward. Nobody learns. You may feel better for offloading some angst & exercising your ego but you are likely to offend others, encourage more offensiveness & discourage others from useful input for fear of being machine gunned. It could ruin the thread.

Please use your undoubted talents to HELP others.
  • #5,544
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:54am Sep 22, 2009 4:54am
Quoting Blackeagle
One,

It is definitely an HS pattern, and attached is what I see on my chart. I took short trade at the close of 14/9 bar due to evening star, breaking of short term DSRI (a different way of trading HSs, short term view) and a very good RR and exited yesterday.

Regarding current situation, as long as 1/9 low holds, major trend is still up and I favour long trades with PA if yesterday's high is penetrated (again very good RR). You can find yourself in the fat city in case of breaking of 1/9 low and hence HS neck.
I hope this helps.
Great little trade there Blackeagle - micro TL break of expected RHS of H&S pattern ending in a doji - good for a small RR trade back to the neckline and a great sell of a LH after the peak too. Would you close a full position here of take off a %age? If the neckline does go you have a good rent free trade! In this instance I would expect a small move away from the neckline and look to fade that move up on good PA. Let's see what develops.

Interestingly, I have a bank report that has studied the close (up to 82%) correlation of cable and crude oil. It seems to be the pair affected most by movements in crude.

Not that should bother most on here as we trade each chart seperatley. I would have been a lot more profitable in the past if i'd disconnected any fundemental views I may have held from what was happening on the charts. It's taken me a long time to learn that economics are very complex and whole bank divisions that study them still get stuff wrong. I think, from past errors, that having a fundemental view may be good in the long run but increasingly I'm ignoring the news and websites as I find these 'views' often counter what the charts are telling me and I mess trades up 'thinking' I know better.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,545
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:29am Sep 22, 2009 5:29am
Quoting One14
Here's something that jumped out at me while reviewing the charts tonight. I am not really studying this stuff now as I have been focusing on the basics that Strat has been pushing (SS, Hammers, BEEB, etc...), but like I said it stuck out.

I know Nicola and others have already been trading the Pound, but I'd like to throw this one out there and get some opinions from you Certified Trainers (and of course the Master).
BTW, Nicola...have you made any moves (and not the ones that Strat is probably thinking of)?

We are near the low end of the consolidation,...
Hello One14
I was short cable from last week until this morning when the hammer broke. Its really a range trade until it breaks out of this H&S (I can also draw this as a wedge).
I am still short GBPCHF & GBPAUD but we could be near the end of the road there too, I am watching for reversal price action.

Here is what helps me decide which pair to trade ...
You can go and find one of those currency strength indicators, but thats cheating a bit ...
or
You can study all the crosses. Say the dollar is weak against everything and a number of pairs have price action to short the dollar and you are wondering which one to take. I look all the crosses like EURGBP, GBPCHF, EURCAD, AUDNZD, AUDCHF etc etc or which ever ones relate to the ones that I am trying to choose between. You can see from them which is strongest and which is weakest and then you can decide which to trade and which to leave.
For example at the moment the EUR and CHF are much stronger than GBP in the continental currencies and in the commodity currencies the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest ... NZDUSD is the best looking short dollar trade and USDCAD is the best looking long dollar trade out of them.
I hope I am making sense today ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #5,546
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:55am Sep 22, 2009 5:55am
Quoting Barry Cade
Ive just found this thread. It has some great content which I intend to start applying as I return to longer t/fs.

Irrespective of your success at trading, this sort of comment (& its not the first) doesnt move anyone forward. Nobody learns. You may feel better for offloading some angst & exercising your ego but you are likely to offend others, encourage more offensiveness & discourage others from useful input for fear of being machine gunned. It could ruin the thread.

Please use your undoubted talents to HELP others.
Barry,
dont bother yousrelf with small ppl, they will take what they deserve, we are for them.
as they said"ploiteness cant be learned even if you read a thousand book".
I mean look at the Elegant posts of blackeagle and compare, he is talking scientificaly( or better forget about sciences now as trading is an ART) he is talking purely technically. that encourage (as you said), to reply to him explaining ur point of view not just for him but for others also to benifit as a community. I hope i will answer him later in another post so may be all of us benifit including me.
again Barry dont worry about small headed ppl ,they will take over their head.
  • #5,547
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:06am Sep 22, 2009 6:06am
Quoting Grimweasel
Great little trade there Blackeagle - micro TL break of expected RHS of H&S pattern ending in a doji - good for a small RR trade back to the neckline and a great sell of a LH after the peak too. Would you close a full position here of take off a %age? If the neckline does go you have a good rent free trade! In this instance I would expect a small move away from the neckline and look to fade that move up on good PA. Let's see what develops.

Interestingly, I have a bank report that has studied the close (up to 82%) correlation of cable and crude...
very good if you are concenterating on news, and ignoring news(specially if it is polishing news).but we can not ignore fundementals like if nonfarm is rising from200k to 600k.or a major C.B cutting rate by 0.5 b.p. my point of view is just to wait if there is important news(likeFED meeting) and listen what the will SAY( dont mean I.R). and then look at P.A response to that at the end of the day and trade accordingly.
  • #5,548
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:11am Sep 22, 2009 6:11am
Quoting Grimweasel
Great little trade there Blackeagle - micro TL break of expected RHS of H&S pattern ending in a doji - good for a small RR trade back to the neckline and a great sell of a LH after the peak too. Would you close a full position here of take off a %age? ...
Hi Grim,

Actually I have closed full short position at the close of 21/9 12:00 bar and took a full long position at the same time as it was a morning star from neckline with a very good RR again (and a break of micro DSRI). But these trades are from H4 and have nothing to do with Strat's teachings, that's why I didn't want to mention it in the above related post, just explaining to answer your question fully.
  • #5,549
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:11am Sep 22, 2009 6:11am
Quoting rockk
very good if you are concenterating on news, and ignoring news(specially if it is polishing news).but we can not ignore fundementals like if nonfarm is rising from200k to 600k.or a major C.B cutting rate by 0.5 b.p. my point of view is just to wait if there is important news(likeFED meeting) and listen what the will SAY( dont mean I.R). and then look at P.A response to that at the end of the day and trade accordingly.
sorry I meant concentrating on Tech,and ignoring news.(its typpo.)
  • #5,550
  • Edited 9:05am Sep 22, 2009 6:15am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting elitejets
Hello One14
Quoting elitejets
I was short cable from last week until this morning when the hammer broke. Its really a range trade until it breaks out of this H&S (I can also draw this as a wedge).
I am still short GBPCHF & GBPAUD but we could be near the end of the road there too, I am watching for reversal price action.

Here is what helps me decide which pair to trade ...
You can go and find one of those currency strength indicators, but thats cheating a bit ...
or
You...


Exactly Nic - an old trader over on T2W showed me this a few years back.

Say you think the $ will weaken and you have short action on say EurUsd and Cable charts but are unsure which one to short (and the RR is within the bounds of your account):

Simply pull up a chart of EurGbp and see which is stronger - eurgbp has been rallying - so in this case the weaker currency is the gbp - so we would hypothetically, short Cable.

This will work on all the pairs - it also keeps you out of too many correlated trades.

One of the best things I think all new traders should do is WRITE UP your end of week analysis and identify the action on the boss chart for the week and STICK to that. Since I have been doing each this week I have found even more spare time and less tendency to go 'looking' for trades. It also lets you feel the market. By doing this you are also firing the cognitive cells that get you thinking and learning better and quicker. If the boss trend is up then you are looking to buy pullbacks, and vice versa with a down trend, with good PASR to the next SR level - simple!

On the subject of trends I saw someone posting earlier who was having trouble identifying trends. There are many trends on a chart right from the 5m thru to the monthly; it all depends on your perspective. On here, we are trading the worker so you should only be looking to stick with the BOSS trends; look to buy pullbacks and sell rallies etc, in concert with those BOSS trends.

I've said it before, but what I use is Mark Marber's 'Rule of 4' for identifying new trends. This works across all time frames, just faster or slower depending on your 'pond'.

To draw a new up TL you need:
1. A low
2. A high
3. A higher low
4. A higher high.

For a down TL you need:
1. A High
2. A Low
3. A lower High
4. A lower Low

Now some will take a new trend after No.3. Remember these are the rules (according to Marber) for being able to draw a new TL. It points to where price MAY go but it’s not a certainty. Some follow this, others don't - that's the beauty of trading! (I also like to see the violation of the last high or low of the previous trend before I think a new trend may be in force).

You must also draw the new TL (or DSRI) from the absolute H or L to the higher low or lower high and beyond. The DRSI should also take into account nearly 90% of the PA within that move. If it violates it then draw a new TL to the new HL or LH.

All this is not gospel by any means - just the way in which I draw TLs/DSRI. I still use the worker LINE chart for my DRSI but in some circumstances it may be better to use wicks of candles to see what TL that particular pair is following. Sometimes I have drawn DRSI using the closes and it had looked 'wrong' - so I have used the wicks of the candles and the TLs look and trade much better.

Like Al Brooks' said in his book - "If it looks like a pattern or set-up and is close enough, it will probably trade like one"

Good trading all!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,551
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:18am Sep 22, 2009 6:18am
Quoting Grimweasel
To draw a new up TL you must have:
1. A low
2. A high
3. A higher low
4.
Did you deliberately miss number 4 off?
  • #5,552
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:21am Sep 22, 2009 6:21am
Quoting elitejets
Did you deliberately miss number 4 off?

4. A pencil?
  • #5,553
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:51am Sep 22, 2009 6:51am
Quoting Grimweasel
... I still use the worker LINE chart for my DRSI but in some circumstances it may be better to use wicks of candles to see what TL that particular pair is following. Sometimes I have drawn DRSI using the closes and it had looked 'wrong' - so I have used the wicks of the candles and the TLs look and trade much better.
And you are doing correct, my friend, especially that wick is touching a major SR.
  • #5,554
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:04am Sep 22, 2009 8:04am
PERSPECTIVE or the importance of looking at the correct view.

If we zoom in too close, we get the impression that supply is in charge.

When we zoom out, we get a “sideways” impression

Zoom out still further and it looks like we are in demand

So what to do?

Ask the BOSS – she knows!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sep22 close up.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sep22 one zoom out.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sep22 two zoom out.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sep22 boss.gif Size: 29 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,555
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:06am Sep 22, 2009 9:06am
Quoting elitejets
Did you deliberately miss number 4 off?
Thanks Nic - some of the text was lost on the transfer over to FF. Odd; good job I write in word first then post as there was a little more underneath! Thx!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,556
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:22am Sep 22, 2009 9:22am
For those with any doubt as to where EURUSD is heading, let's draw a map:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd big boss.gif Size: 33 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,557
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:44am Sep 22, 2009 9:44am
Quoting Barry Cade
Ive just found this thread. It has some great content which I intend to start applying as I return to longer t/fs.

Irrespective of your success at trading, this sort of comment (& its not the first) doesnt move anyone forward. Nobody learns. You may feel better for offloading some angst & exercising your ego but you are likely to offend others, encourage more offensiveness & discourage others from useful input for fear of being machine gunned. It could ruin the thread.

Please use your undoubted talents to HELP others.
Respectfully, I do find it helpful to illustrate the ridiculous. I saw a post from that trader about a non-HSH formation on Cable; then I saw the EURUSD uptrend described as lack of supply. That is against a background of similar dubious posts and questionable attitude. This is an educational thread. That type of thing is careless and misleading.

If you have just discovered this thread, then perhaps it is fair to say that you should be greatly "helped" in your trading, whether it be with stepwise technical suggestions from some or with broader brushed comments and occassional specifics (aka the Cable and E/USD discussion last night) from me.

If your posts show some forethought, you should have no problem being gun-shy.
  • #5,558
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:51am Sep 22, 2009 9:51am
Quoting strat
For those with any doubt as to where EURUSD is heading, let's draw a map:
Strat pardon me but I am new here! So according to you Eur/USD will move UP? to what point please? and in how many days?
Thanks,
Bomi
  • #5,559
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:55am Sep 22, 2009 9:55am
[
quote=Blackeagle;3080507]And you are doing correct, my friend, especially that wick is touching a major SR.[/quote]

Thanks Blackeagle - ref the micro trades too, I completely forgot that you trade the H4 too - I was, as you intimate, thinking daily only; this is good for me as I'm that zoned in on worker and above of late, that I had forgotten that people trade down there
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,560
  • Sep 22, 2009 10:03am Sep 22, 2009 10:03am
Quoting behman8850
Strat pardon me but I am new here! So according to you Eur/USD will move UP? to what point please? and in how many days?
Thanks,
Bomi
FIRST:
If you are new here, please go to the top of the page where it says "371 of 371", click on "FIRST" and start reading from there. Once you have read and understood each post and got back to here, you will know the answer.

SECOND:
This thread does not, and never will, give signals. For that you must go to the other threads which provide signals or copycat trades. However, if you want to learn how to generate your own signals and targets, then start at the beginning of The Path of Learning (FIRST post).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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