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AUD/USD

  • #4,081
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:38am Sep 22, 2009 12:38am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting fammira
guys when chinese and japanese go for lunch what do you expect to happen?

US have dinner because there is a time difference and AU have afternoon tea ... is this what happen?
  • #4,082
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:53am Sep 22, 2009 12:53am
Quoting G_Man
what the …. Is going on !!!

is this thing gonna do anything? she is not showing me any love

this probably be the most boring trading session i have ever experienced ... i am trying my best to make it fun ... but its not happening ...

either go up so i can add more or go down so i can go holiday ...

[color=black][font=Verdana]unbelievable...
Doesn't seem like we're gonna get much of a move until Wednesday, FOMC, and then the G20 summit later in the week.
  • #4,083
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:53am Sep 22, 2009 12:53am
Quoting fammira
ehehe, typical forex market

trade calmly, a correction to 0,84 - 85 is still in the cards in my very humble opinion
Here is my observation::

Last Monday it retraced back to .8540 from a high of .8650 and then went higher to .8770. Y'day it went back to .8590 and considering its already at .87, should we expect a move to .88?

I added more shorts at .8645 after closing some positions at .8591 last night. Net effect, I am standing exactly where I stood last Monday with a serious chance of getting bust if FOMC meeting turns out to be US$ bearish.

This makes me wonder, do technical indicators work, if at all because y'day was the first "short entry" signal I got on my daily Parabolic SAR after 17 consecutive "buy signals".
  • #4,084
  • Sep 22, 2009 12:56am Sep 22, 2009 12:56am
Quoting thadakman
Doesn't seem like we're gonna get much of a move until Wednesday, FOMC, and then the G20 summit later in the week.

Europe & London should help this take a direction followed by consolidation in early NY session.

Expecting this b!tch to hit .88 before FOMC and possible move to .89 by the end of this week to make me go bust.
  • #4,085
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:12am Sep 22, 2009 1:12am
Quoting puks
Here is my observation::

Last Monday it retraced back to .8540 from a high of .8650 and then went higher to .8770....
The problem with Technical indicators is that they throw up signals after the fact (which is fine if the market ends up trending)... I say, if you're going to use them, then find a system (after lots of testing and trial and error), and once u find ur collection of indicators (usually 2 or 3), just be consistent and take all the trades that get confirmed and don't take any trades that don't... if ur consistent with indicators (your trading plan) and take all the trades ur supposed to (with proper risk management), then you should make out in the long run... nothing worse than NOT taking the trade your trading plan says to take and watch it blow up and then taking the next trade your trading plan tells you to take that ends up a loser... picking and choosing is not the way to go if you're trading by relying on indicators.

I usually watch what's going on with the MACD and RSI on a few different time frames, but don't personally use the technical indicators to enter/exit trades.
  • #4,086
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:32am Sep 22, 2009 1:32am
Quoting puks
Europe & London should help this take a direction followed by consolidation in early NY session.

Expecting this b!tch to hit .88 before FOMC and possible move to .89 by the end of this week to make me go bust.
It was looking like a possible head and shoulders on the 4 hour chart (multiple left shoulders; same pattern happening on the GBP/USD daily chart); but now, it's looking to break to new highs...

I'm personally contemplating tweaking my plan and may not add shorts until either a double top in the 0.8770's or even wait for an 0.8800 break (instead of adding shorts at 0.8750)... the 4 hour trend line still looks to be intact (we got a lower shadow poke through, but no close earlier).
  • #4,087
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:43am Sep 22, 2009 1:43am
Quoting thadakman

I'm personally contemplating tweaking my plan and may not add shorts until either a double top in the 0.8770's or even wait for an 0.8800 break (instead of adding shorts at 0.8750)... the 4 hour trend line still looks to be intact (we got a lower shadow poke through, but no close earlier).
I think a failure to break to new highs can pull this back to the 0.8550 area though.
  • #4,088
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:45am Sep 22, 2009 1:45am
exactly thadakman, upward stop hunt now, I expect yesterday's lows to be cutted on US session or tomorrow
  • #4,089
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:47am Sep 22, 2009 1:47am
Quoting fammira
exactly thadakman, upward stop hunt now, I expect yesterday's lows to be cutted on US session or tomorrow
Fammira, I am seriously sweating now...

I am also short in EUR/USD at 1.4630
  • #4,090
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:53am Sep 22, 2009 1:53am
It'll be interesting to see what the futures do, and if the US stocks gap up or down decently... trend I've been noticing lately is play opposite (go long AUD if the Dow gaps down as the stocks usually fade and pull higher after opening) (and go short AUD on a gap up, If AUD pulled higher Euro session, which it's doing now)... not a bad way to snag some quick pips by getting a position within a 1/2 hour before the US market opens as the move will usually come within a 1/2 hour after opening... where it goes from there is anyone's guess... but the US Dollar has been consistently selling off as the session progresses.
  • #4,091
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:54am Sep 22, 2009 1:54am
Quoting puks
Fammira, I am seriously sweating now...

I am also short in EUR/USD at 1.4630
Did you short the EUR/USD when you got out of your AUD/USD short... how long before or after... b/c shorting the EUR/USD would pretty much be the same as staying in that AUD/USD short, only, your risk/reward would be higher b/c the Euro moves more than the Aud.
  • #4,092
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:02am Sep 22, 2009 2:02am
Wow, guys, the NZD broke 0.7200 (that must've screwed some people on an option barrier!)... that's too good to pass up, even more extended than the AUD... I'm shorting now and will not short the AUD until 0.8800 now (If it gets there) in order to limit overall risk.
  • #4,093
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:04am Sep 22, 2009 2:04am
Quoting thadakman
Did you short the EUR/USD when you got out of your AUD/USD short... how long before or after... b/c shorting the EUR/USD would pretty much be the same as staying in that AUD/USD short, only, your risk/reward would be higher b/c the Euro moves more than the Aud.
After.

at one stage I was long in EUR/USD at 1.4670 but then closed the position at the same price and entered short. took profit of 10 pips and within a minute it came down to 1.4620 so I entered a short and then re-enter another short at 1.4640 as I thought it was bouncing off the support at 1.4615 but i should have stuck to my long.

sh!t........
  • #4,094
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:18am Sep 22, 2009 2:18am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting puks
After.

at one stage I was long in EUR/USD at 1.4670 but then closed the position at the same price and entered short. took profit of 10 pips and within a minute it came down to 1.4620 so I entered a short and then re-enter another short at 1.4640 as I thought it was bouncing off the support at 1.4615 but i should have stuck to my long.

sh!t........
wait till EUR open ...
  • #4,095
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:19am Sep 22, 2009 2:19am
Any thoughts on NZD/USD ?

I have an annoying short at 0.7011
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #4,096
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:22am Sep 22, 2009 2:22am
Quoting puks
After.

at one stage I was long in EUR/USD at 1.4670 but then closed the position at the same price and entered short. took profit of 10 pips and within a minute it came down to 1.4620 so I entered a short and then re-enter another short at 1.4640 as I thought it was bouncing off the support at 1.4615 but i should have stuck to my long.

sh!t........
Was that 10 pip profit a planned scalp? Were you planning more scalps going short? (if so, the loss needs to be cut extra early)... you need to have your stop and profit target in mind before even opening the trade...

a big mistake is to take small profits (10 pips for example) and sit on big losses... either hold out for big profits too, so at least you can give yourself a chance to even out on the big losses...

I've done this numerous times in the past... had winning trades that I took very small profits on (that of course kept blowing up in my favor, but I didn't benefit); b/c of this, it never offset the losses I've allowed myself to take... luckily, I've tweaked my trading enough and rarely catch myself in that mode anymore.
  • #4,097
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:25am Sep 22, 2009 2:25am
Quoting plan-b
Any thoughts on NZD/USD ?

I have an annoying short at 0.7011
Personally, I'd add a tad more short near this level... that'd give you a nice chance to at least break even, depending on how soon you want to offload the trade.

Something big should happen this week though, with FOMC and G20 summit... it'll all come back or the loss will keep snowballing... if you're in no danger of getting liquidated out of your trade, I'd just sit tight as I'm sure it will eventually lose 0.7000 again (could be a while, could even be this week, but way more likely to be Next week if the dollar can finally catch a break).
  • #4,098
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:28am Sep 22, 2009 2:28am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
just added more at 8736 ...
  • #4,099
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:52am Sep 22, 2009 2:52am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
i like this moment ... where everyone is so quite now ... thinking deep very deep ...
  • #4,100
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:57am Sep 22, 2009 2:57am
Arghhh...This NZD move is making me sick.
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