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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,401
  • Sep 16, 2009 6:04am Sep 16, 2009 6:04am
Quoting DanUK
I can understand the desire to counter-trend trade because it can be a lot of waiting around while waiting for your moment to strike... which means you aren't trading, which means you aren't making money. But it also means you aren't loosing money and you are sticking with the highest probability entry because the trend really is your friend. I know it's cliché but this thread is based on it. That is something we all need to remember.

Regards,

Dan
Absolutely spot on.
I remember a quote from the J16 thread.
In fact it's pinned up on the wall next to my screens.

"I do not get paid for trading, I get paid for waiting".
  • #9,402
  • Sep 16, 2009 7:19am Sep 16, 2009 7:19am
Quoting DanUK
Just to add my .02! Personally I would say the with-trend entry is still the best option and my reasoning is something like this...

I haven't actually been long since 1.4200 but I have been long since 1.4250 (chart attached with reasoning) - it was admittedly a risky entry because NFP Friday was coming up before I placed the order; however it was in the direction of the trend - and I think it is important to stay with your "with-trend" entries. If I had closed my position and then counter-trend traded...
Well looking back at my log I was in at 1.42 but tightened up my SL at the top of what was then the trading range. I cashed in 200+ pips but have been on the sidelines ever since. I guess that I am frustrated and just want to work the system correctly. I understand having patience and waiting around but it just kills me to see the market move up like this not be in it.


So from here. What is the current strategy?

Sorry I can't post a chart yet but here is what I see:

Resistance at 1.4710 (high from 12/18/08)
Support from 6/2 to 8/3 highs trend line (today 9/16 would be 1.4530)

Fib
H: 1.471
L: 1.42

38.2% 1.451
50% 1.445
61.8% 1.439.

So today, in trying to trade with the trend. I should plan on waiting for a dip correct? and from my info above the first buying point would be 1.4530 (support from above)

The next buying point would be 1.445 (50% Fib)

Am I missing anything?
  • #9,403
  • Sep 16, 2009 7:38am Sep 16, 2009 7:38am
Quoting truckjrt
Well looking back at my log I was in at 1.42 but tightened up my SL at the top of what was then the trading range. I cashed in 200+ pips but have been on the sidelines ever since. I guess that I am frustrated and just want to work the system correctly. I understand having patience and waiting around but it just kills me to see the market move up like this not be in it.


So from here. What is the current strategy?

Sorry I can't post a chart yet but here is what I see:

Resistance at 1.4710 (high from 12/18/08)
Support from 6/2 to 8/3 highs...
Yes, strictly speaking you should be looking for a discount to get into the trend. I'm not sure how the 1.4530 level comes into this trading method - if I have missed something here please let me know. I think the 50% fib area is a good target. It lines up with highs from August which is nice to see too. There are of course no guarantees - price could stop before then and continue to shoot on up... if that happens it's just tough luck for me! Then again it could break through the 50% level, hit 1.4400 and go back up... or it could go all the way back down to the shallow rising trendline... or it could...

The key is to watch what happens when price get to the areas of interest. If it blows straight through then we can rule it out and look for the next area of interest. However, if we get a reaction... then it's time to think about pulling the trigger. And if it goes against you... wait and deploy the anti-hedge strategy. If you're with the trend you've got your edge... some will be winners, some will be losers. Our job is to exploit the trend to our advantage so that the winners outweigh the losers.

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,404
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:04am Sep 16, 2009 8:04am
Quoting DanUK
Yes, strictly speaking you should be looking for a discount to get into the trend...

The key is to watch what happens when price get to the areas of interest. If it blows straight through then we can rule it out and look for the next area of interest. However, if we get a reaction... then it's time to think about pulling the trigger. And if it goes against you... wait and deploy the anti-hedge strategy. If you're with the trend you've got your edge... some will be winners, some will be losers. Our job is to exploit the trend to our advantage...
This last paragraph is a big help, I think it has been the piece that I have been missing and until now haven't seen anyone say it.

Thanks,
Josh
  • #9,405
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:24am Sep 16, 2009 8:24am
Yeah it's funny how that happens and one of the best reasons to participate in a good forum... you often know the answer yourself but it doesn't quite click until someone else says it and you have one of those "ah ha" moments!
  • #9,406
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:03am Sep 17, 2009 3:03am
Hey Dan,


What are the next areas of interest that u got going, I went short at 1.4640 and then got stopped out at 1.4740 i was thinking
ah but its against the trend. what u think?
  • #9,407
  • Sep 17, 2009 4:30am Sep 17, 2009 4:30am
Quoting IliaM
Hey Dan,


What are the next areas of interest that u got going, I went short at 1.4640 and then got stopped out at 1.4740 i was thinking
ah but its against the trend. what u think?
Hi IliaM,

I currently have a long position open from 1.4250 (stop currently at 1.4650); the 4H trendline it has been following has held well but it is pretty steep which tends to mean it won't go on forever!

I am absolutely still in favour of a long position over a short position but only at a discount. When price eventually makes a retracement (of a reasonable size) I will be interested in seeing price make it to at least the 1.4400 to 1.4500 before going long again (based on the current position). Time is an element too so it also depends on how long it takes to go back down and where we are in relation to a trendline too. But my first area of interest will be the 50% retracement level (as mentioned above).

Hope that helps. What does anyone else think?

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,408
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:20am Sep 17, 2009 5:20am
I agree, I think the next areas of interest would definately be 1.4500 - 1.4000. It might go straight through the 50´s fib but it will stop and reverse at 1.4000 definately.

I also believe the 1.45 does hold quite a lot significance on the weeklies/dailies chart.

Adding to what Dan said about the 4H trendline. Ive noticed over and over that the steeper it gets the faster and harder it will drop, so I firmly believe that it will exhaust, break it and end up very near the dailies TL.

Not to repeat what others are saying, im still learning hehe xp.

plus i like putting charts up, very visual...

Great thread guys keep it up!
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  • #9,409
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:44am Sep 17, 2009 5:44am
Quoting DanUK
Hi IliaM,

I currently have a long position open from 1.4250 (stop currently at 1.4650); the 4H trendline it has been following has held well but it is pretty steep which tends to mean it won't go on forever!

I am absolutely still in favour of a long position over a short position but only at a discount. When price eventually makes a retracement (of a reasonable size) I will be interested in seeing price make it to at least the 1.4400 to 1.4500 before going long again (based on the current position)....
Waiting for 50% Fib at about 1.4450. anyone think it will break over 1.48 before it turns. I would not put my money on it but someone somewhere must be thinking "can we get it to 1.50"
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,410
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:51am Sep 17, 2009 7:51am
Quoting narberth
Waiting for 50% Fib at about 1.4450. anyone think it will break over 1.48 before it turns. I would not put my money on it but someone somewhere must be thinking "can we get it to 1.50"
Yes it would certainly be interesting to see if we could get past the 1.48 area. If we did and price managed to hold above then I don't think we would be seeing the 1.44/1.45 area again!? However, I think we will see a retracement before going above/staying above 1.4800... of course we only trade what we see though!
  • #9,411
  • Sep 19, 2009 4:34pm Sep 19, 2009 4:34pm
I honestly cannot understand why anybody feels the remotest need to speculate where price will go next. The charts will reveal all. Just exercise patience, and keep a resolutely open mind. You really don't need any more.
  • #9,412
  • Sep 20, 2009 1:23pm Sep 20, 2009 1:23pm
Quoting Interceptor
I honestly cannot understand why anybody feels the remotest need to speculate where price will go next. The charts will reveal all. Just exercise patience, and keep a resolutely open mind. You really don't need any more.
Something to talk about on a forum I would guess!
  • #9,413
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:55am Sep 21, 2009 2:55am
Quoting Interceptor
I honestly cannot understand why anybody feels the remotest need to speculate where price will go next. The charts will reveal all. Just exercise patience, and keep a resolutely open mind. You really don't need any more.
The charts will only tell us where price is and where it has been never where it is going, that will always be speculation.

I find it usefull to speculate on where the market may go and how I would respond. If the price moves quickly to a level that I am interested in I am prepared.
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,414
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:17am Sep 21, 2009 3:17am
Quoting narberth
The charts will only tell us where price is and where it has been never where it is going, that will always be speculation.

I find it usefull to speculate on where the market may go and how I would respond. If the price moves quickly to a level that I am interested in I am prepared.
You obviously have to prepare game plans for all eventualities, but all 'opinions' of precisely what the market will do next are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
  • #9,415
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:59am Sep 21, 2009 3:59am
Hello everyone
After much searching I finally became one of Jacko's turtles. Without doubt this was the smartest thing I've done since I started trading and although I am making money following his trades I am still very much learning the method.
Like all 'simple' systems the subtleties are not so easy, particularly in a ranging market and I have been reading this thread and learning from you experienced traders. Ultimately, my aim is to trade independently of Wayne so if you don't mind I will be posting my thoughts for your criticism and comment.
Currently I have my chart open on the 4H and I notice the PA has bounced three times now off the 50% Fib of the 14/9- 17/9 movement.
It is also forming a pin-bar on the 4H.
I am considering going long off the high of this bar.
Any comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,416
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:09am Sep 21, 2009 5:09am
Well the pin-bar turned out to be a neutral bar in the end so I will just be watching the PA again around the (above mentioned) 50% fib and the 1.4650 area.
  • #9,417
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:27am Sep 21, 2009 5:27am
Dollar is getting stronger in all fronts.
You better think again before too late.


Quoting thedave
Hello everyone
After much searching I finally became one of Jacko's turtles. Without doubt this was the smartest thing I've done since I started trading and although I am making money following his trades I am still very much learning the method.
Like all 'simple' systems the subtleties are not so easy, particularly in a ranging market and I have been reading this thread and learning from you experienced traders. Ultimately, my aim is to trade independently of Wayne so if you don't mind I will be posting my thoughts for your criticism and comment.
Currently...
  • #9,418
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:31am Sep 21, 2009 5:31am
Quoting thedave
Well the pin-bar turned out to be a neutral bar in the end so I will just be watching the PA again around the (above mentioned) 50% fib and the 1.4650 area.
Hi 1.4650 is too high for me. Last time it bounced here it made a lower high so it looks like the bull is getting weaker. Also a long at 1.4650 with a 100 pip stop would put the stop at 1.4550 which is only a weak support area (1.4500 would be stronger).

The bull run took off from 1.4190 and ran up to 1.4770 The 50% fib for this run is around 1.45 I will wait for an opportunity at around this level.

DYOR
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,419
  • Sep 21, 2009 5:45am Sep 21, 2009 5:45am
hey guys Im new here, been reading lots of good stuff here just closed out my first euro trade was in at 1.4500 started trading the euro after reading jackos extolling of it's virtues. Waiting for the turn around and a good entry. The trend is my friend. hope yourall having an awesome day
  • #9,420
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:04am Sep 21, 2009 7:04am
Thanks Bernard/ Narberth
These are the subtleties I was referring to in my original post. It's tempting to pull the trigger too soon from fear of missing out on a further strong bullish move.
My thinking was that if price broke below the 50% fib of the 14/9 17/9 move I would then wait for an entry at around 1.4600/ 1.4550 which seems to be the next area of major support/ resistance.
The problem is what-if.
What if price does rebound again off the Fib and takes off. Where would you next look for an entry?
Jacko is fairly confident that we are now in a bull trend (although he is expecting a significant retrace) and I recall him saying that the great thing about the AH strategy is that even if you get it wrong, as long as you have correctly predicted the trend, you will always get back any lost pips.
Is this not the case here?
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