james16 Chart Thread | Page 2206 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #44,101
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:54am Sep 18, 2009 9:54am
Quoting rustyjeff
Ben..I didnt want to say anything when you posted this trade cause i knew this would happen..

Its done to me before as well so dont worry about it.. When this pair moves like it has been.. I stand aside.. dont get in the way..on moves like this I prefer a solid pa on the daily to stop the move or at least pause it..

I know 90 is a nice round number but have a look just above at 91-91.50. on the weekly.
Yep. I said many times before that it's hard trading against sharp moves, and I did it myself

By the way, it makes me think. Divergence used on trend reversals is quite reductions. It comperes the speed of past moves to the speed of the recent move. But it's only a ratio. In this case there was divergence because the past move was FASTER. But it doesn't measures the speed itself. I mean, look at the chart, what a sharp move. Because it was a bit sharper in the past it means that there is a bearish sign? IMO NO!

Now let say the oscillator makes matching highs, and price makes an higher high. That actually tells me that the speed of the move is the same. Of cause that price made an higher high - the trend is up - but the speed is still the same.
So I can't see how there is any kind of bearish sign when MACD makes matching highs and price higher high. The people that say that, actually say that the speed of the move needs to get faster in order that there will be no divergence (bearish sign). LOL!!! where is the sense here? What is the connection between the direction of the move price is making, and the speed, and the momentum?
Sorry if my explanation was bad, please let me know if it was clear.
I am starting to think that any king of "indicator" is a complete BS.

I can still understand the idea of double tops|bottoms with div. That was explained well by Joel - if the speed was fast in the fast and didn't break a certain spot, most likely a slower speed won't break THE SAME SPOT.

But I honestly can't see any sense in using divergence on trends. Please think about it for a moment. Does price needs to keep going faster forever in order to not get a reversal signal? Can't the speed stay the same while price moves to one direction?

By the way, quite funny...after that post, a BUOB formed off the round number (not a great one). I remember Jim post about playing a break of tow matching highs|lows during a very sharp trend can be a good continuation trade. So I bought the break (on my other demo account|testing account) and I'm already up to almost 2R.

Ben
  • #44,102
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:57am Sep 18, 2009 9:57am
Good Morning everyone. I wanted to put up this post to explain the importance of following your trading plan. I mismanaged the USD/CAD daily pinbar trade overnight and it’s burning me up right now. Hopefully, explaining what happened will help me work through it as well as help keep you from making the same type of mistake.

At the time of the daily close (4:00pm CT), I had decided against this trade for the main reason that I didn’t think the nose was long enough to warrant a trade. However, it did have some things going for it: 1.06RN, DIV, descending TL. Finally, my take on this pair recently was that we would have a false breakout of the highlighted region before breaking back up and through 1.10.

I came back to my charts after 9:00pm and saw that the 8:00pm 4hr bar close had produced a 2IB (inside bar followed by another inside bar). This was preceded by a bar that looks like a pinbar (see chart). From my experience, these types of setups tend to work for me. Also, the daily PB had recently been triggered. So, combined with the daily setup, I decided to take the trade and went to bed.

Fast forward to 2:30am when I got up. Price was running and the feed I trade on reached 1R profit, signaling me to move my stop to b/e. A great way to wake up! As the 15 minute chart shows (shown only for illustration), price continued to pop and eventually started running toward my TP, set at 1.076 or 2R. This is where rules were broken and my plan was not followed.

I decided to move my profit target up to 1.079. I had lots of things in my head at this point. Among them:
-Price is running now and it won’t stop until at a round number. Might as well get some more…The best traders let their profits run.
-This is a daily trade. I have been in it 6 hours. Let this work itself up to 1.08. It’s due for a small pullback. Worst case scenario is it retests 1.07 and then rallies up through 1.08.
-I’ll let this run through a little bit and then close on a market order.
-And also: "Follow your rules. You’ve tested this strategy for moving stops and taking profits. Why would you try to change it and not follow it in the middle of a trade?"

I actually had my ‘close trade’ ticket window open and ready to hit the ‘close’ button when my bid was 1.0765. I had marked it in my spreadsheet as a 2.12% gain on a 1% risk trade. I was just going to let this run a little higher and then hit the ‘close’ button…

What I mean to say is, I was just going to ‘modify’ my rules, aka, break my rules in the middle of a trade. What I mean to say is, I was just going to get a little bit more. One word sticks in my head right now – GREED.

Well, the chart shows what happened. It didn’t take me long to realize that I no longer had a trading plan and no longer had rules to break… Who makes rules for those times when you break the rules? Who makes rules for after you have taken full profit?

So I did what I felt was right for my personality. I kept my stop at b/e and moved my profit target back to 2R. CAD data came out at 7:30 and stopped me out shortly after at b/e.

I’m guessing there are several of you who might be quick to reply with
-“you knew this wasn’t an A+ setup and yet you didn’t take any partial profit?” or
-“Josh, you will be a much better trader when you realize that fixed profit targets don’t work and you must take profits based on S/R, RN, etc.”

I can only respond by saying that through my testing, demo, and live results, I’ve proven to myself that my exit strategy works and works well. It fits my personality and eliminates all emotion and human decision making after placing the trade. These are important characteristics for me, especially as a relatively inexperienced trader. I will add that there are others much more successful than me trading a similar type of exit strategy albeit on a lower timeframe. The way I entered this trade was not how I normally enter (placing a daily trade 5 hours after the daily close). However, the reasons for my taking the trade were sound and well within my rules, especially since I was not chasing the trade and was able to enter at the price planned.


So what can I take away from this trade?
I didn’t lose any money. I realized the importance of my trading plan. I realize how lost I feel when I don’t follow my plan and don’t have rules to follow. Don’t mark a profit in your spreadsheet until it’s in your account. Don’t let your opinion of the market override your plan for the trade.
I realize my reaction to breaking my rules must be controlled and realized. I was disappointed in myself for letting greed enter into my trade management. I did realize my mood change from excitement on a winning trade to shame. Not because I missed out on 2R instead of b/e (hey, a b/e trade is a win). But because I didn’t follow my plan and it led me to doubting my abilities, dedication, and commitment to this career path.
After some reflection, however, I also realize how far I’ve come since January when I started learning PA. I now get truly bothered and angry with myself when I break a rule. I’m learning that virtually everyone, regardless of experience, breaks their rules sometimes. It’s something we strive to eliminate, but can probably never fully achieve. In the past, I didn’t have written rules to break and so the frustration was more a feeling of being lost and wondering if I would ever succeed in this business. Long nights of lying awake in my bed wondering what I will do if I fail at this endeavor.
I’ve come a long way in 9 months and have all of you to thank. But I also realize that I have a long way to go in order to reach my goals. Challenging goals are not attained overnight, in 9 months, or even a few years. That is why we set intermediate goals along the way. (3 consecutive winning months of daily/weekly demo trades, 3… of live trades, backtest, write rules, consistently follow them).

In closing, I will simply make a suggestion to new (and long time?) traders. When you break a rule, take a step back from your computer. Reflect on what happened. Ask yourself why it happened. Ask yourself if it’s preventable. Ask yourself if there is anything you can take away from it.
But also, put it in perspective. Are you still able to be a trader? Did breaking this rule make your goal attainment impossible? Is there any reason why you can’t learn from this mistake and then put it behind you? Until you can put it behind you and get over it psychologically, I suggest you don’t trade. The feeling of revenge is also deadly and is not one to mess with.

I know this is a long post, but I truly hope it helps some of you. I’m going to wrap up my week and take the remainder of the day off. Take care everyone and have a safe and fun weekend.

Josh

(Note: Charts zoomed in to show details only).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 091809MISTAKE4hr.GIF Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 091809MISTAKE.GIF Size: 52 KB
Attached Image
  • #44,103
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:57am Sep 18, 2009 9:57am
Quoting joelcf
Despite seeming to have opposite viewpoints, I completely agree with both of you.
You poor, poor man. Keeping my company will only ruin your reputation. Just ask my wife.

Quote
I am an absolutely left brained kind of person. Probably a necessity, given what I do. I dont just want to know how something works, but why. And I want to understand it well enough that I can take it apart, find problems, improve it, bolt a supercharger to the manifold and then put it back together again - bigger and badder than ever.

What you do is fundamentally *different* that what a retail trader does - no? Ultimately, only a few things might be bolted onto this to supercharge it. If I have learned nothing else, I have learned that simplicity is to key to the kingdom.

Quote
And that's a good thing. Is it all completely actionable? Probably not. But it gives context to what you are seeing, helps you understand why the bars are doing what they are doing. It's up to you to take advantage.

Here comes a curve ball. I agree. To be honest, I enjoy learning about the inner workings. But again, most of it is just Mental Masturbation.

Quote
If I dont understand the market/instrument/timeframe, I'm not going to be comfortable trading the conclusions I arrive at. Some people are, and that's great. Neither is better or worse, it just depends how you are wired. Different strokes and all that.

At the end of the day, that is a belief - did it actually serve you and make the trade possible, or was it simply a cottony universe of our own making?

Quote
Having more information is never a bad thing.

I completely disagree. I may post up something on this over the weekend if I have time. I used to believe this to be true, but that belief took a pounding about 10 years ago.

Quote
I think the key is being able to balance things, and - like SP said - being able to understand what you can and cant control.

Balance - how does one know he is in balance? Beliefs are different between people. Nations fight wars over them, and religions spawn horrors over them. I see the vast majority of people on the FF have beliefs that I flat out know will kill them.

Quote
I like to think that I am the pilot on the plane.

Yeah - that is the hard part - no? I have always been in control of the external. I can only walk in the steps of the elephants. PA are the footsteps.

As you know, I am a hound for knowledge. I've read some pretty esoteric stuff on this market - some of which I understand - until the Math gets fired up, then I shrivel up again. But that knowledge has only served as a reinforcement for what I have learned right here - From Mike's rants on round numbers (which went right over my head till I read Osler!) to Jim's fist pounding on not trading into a PPZ.

If a person is willing to keep it simple, and simply make money, beyond there dreams, everything you need is plainly in the open right here.

Getting into trading and making money has been a very surprising journey. Everything I thought I knew to be right and proper is not. Everything! Getting myself to the place I am now caused me a lot of pain. All the old beliefs were demolished and new, useful ones took their place. Retail trading is not what anyone supposes it is when they get in to it.

I envy the really young guys - those who have not had a chance to cement beliefs into place - or even form well informed ones. I think teenagers are best suited to learn to trade - the question everything.

But hey - I enjoy these talks. They are more important than learning to identify a good pinbar. (that is easy) The mindset we need to have is much more difficult to gain.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,104
  • Sep 18, 2009 9:58am Sep 18, 2009 9:58am
Quoting ghous
4H ppz, Trendline,

In on the test of the initial rejection wick.



g.
Damn Ghous, that's a sweet short. I did the same but at a way lower price on the break of the BEOVB and only half my normal position size because we didn't get the retrace. And Benji, damn good call on the cad/jpy.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #44,105
  • Sep 18, 2009 10:16am Sep 18, 2009 10:16am
Quoting benji533
Yep. I said many times before that it's hard trading against sharp moves, and I did it myself

By the way, it makes me think. Divergence used on trend reversals is quite reductions. It comperes the speed of past moves to the speed of the recent move. But it's only a ratio. In this case there was divergence because the past move was FASTER. But it doesn't measures the speed itself. I mean, look at the chart, what a sharp move. Because it was a bit sharper in the past it means that there is a bearish sign? IMO NO!

Now let say the oscillator...
Here is an example.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pפpppppppppppppppppppppפppפp.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #44,106
  • Sep 18, 2009 10:36am Sep 18, 2009 10:36am
Quoting Jduester
Good Morning everyone....
Hey Josh,

Thanks for sharing this. I think many appreciate it, and so am I. IMO there is nothing to say about the setup or your exit strategy at all.
I can see more the effect of psychology involved here. Psychology is exactly all the thoughts which passed in your head while deciding to move your target. IMO there are many ways to successfully trade. But only if you can control your self you can do it.

To be honest, it's a bit strange for me. I do not have certain rules. I mean, I enter trades when I think there is an enough good reason to do so, and I exit trades mostly by trailing stops. If I set targets, I still trail my stops all the way to the target. So I use more common sense than rules.

By the way, 9 months is a long time. I'm sure you know what you are talking about from experience.

Take care and thanks again for sharing.

Ben
  • #44,107
  • Sep 18, 2009 10:48am Sep 18, 2009 10:48am
Quoting Jigsaw
Attachment

Here you go, I robbed your chart
Jigsaw
Is it a OCO order type that is set above or below current price to be triggered when price comes to your preferred entry level?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #44,108
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:07am Sep 18, 2009 11:07am
Quoting benji533
Here is an example.

Just a tip, when you play divergence trades such as RSI / MACD or whatever the LONGER the divergence is apart the LESS chance you have of it working, that is how I use some of the TIME crap I do when I trade. SO if you have 5 bars that make a divergence vs 100 bars well that 5 bars has a better odds MOST of the time because once you go so far back anything can make a divergence. Look at this chart.

Now are these 100% textbook divergence trades? Nope but who cares nothing is exact in the market and the only reason I am here is to make money and that is what I do that works.

Now here is the mix, from the time it hit until it was time to take the trade is was 8 bars.... Just something to think about
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 109 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #44,109
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:25am Sep 18, 2009 11:25am
Quoting benji533
Here is an example.
Those were easy passes.

The bars are small, tiny, Luxembourg small bars. No conviction.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,110
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:25am Sep 18, 2009 11:25am
Quoting benji533
It worked for sure.

I think you drew your fibs upside down






But you got the gist of it down.
  • #44,111
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:42am Sep 18, 2009 11:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: beobongu.gif Size: 32 KB


A good afternoon/morning all. (I'm going to assume the Aussies aren't awake yet and Europe's knock off for the weekend)...
I recorded the attached trade on GBP/USD three days ago after the BEOB closed (15th). I proposed that the best strategy would be as indicated....

1) wait for price at 1.65408 and go short (non conservative) (17th)
2) wait for price at 1.63908 and follow it short (conservative)(18th today)

I am fairly new to BEOB/BUOB and did not take it as I'm still feeling my way.
It's obvious now that this would have been /still is a profitable trade either way. Can any of the wise men/women(?) out there share light on whether this was a good setup to consider and whether my two possible entries were a correct assessment?

Thanks in advance

Dave
  • #44,112
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:53am Sep 18, 2009 11:53am
Quoting StoragePro
Those were easy passes.

The bars are small, tiny, Luxembourg small bars. No conviction.
Quoting Ryanmcd
Just a tip, when you play divergence trades such as RSI / MACD or whatever the LONGER the divergence is apart the LESS chance you have of it working, that is how I use some of the TIME crap I do when I trade. SO if you have 5 bars that make a divergence vs 100 bars well that 5 bars has a better odds MOST of the time because once you go so far back anything can make a divergence. Look at this chart.

Now are these 100% textbook divergence trades? Nope but who cares nothing is exact in the market and the only reason I am here is to make money...
Thank you guys for the comment. But unfortunately you are missing my point. At this stage I do not care about what works ant what not. I didn't even look if the div worked on my example chart, I just searched for a double MACD tops and a higher price top.

The thing that I want to know is the reason, sense, logic, factors for this to work. I want to know why. I can't see any sense. It's the same with the moving averages post I had last week, and Jarroo's reply. I want to know why these tools work.

Ben
  • #44,113
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:54am Sep 18, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Icehocey77
I think you drew your fibs upside down






But you got the gist of it down.
The direction of the fibs doesn't matter. The 50% will always be in the middle

Ben
  • #44,114
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:56am Sep 18, 2009 11:56am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pפppppppppppppppppppppppפpppפp.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #44,115
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:58am Sep 18, 2009 11:58am
People here will vouch that I am a wise-guy...

It is a BEOB. But for starting out, look for these at a swing high or swing low.

See the attached chart. for examples.



Quoting Mpondondo
Attachment

A good afternoon/morning all. (I'm going to assume the Aussies aren't awake yet and Europe's knock off for the weekend)...
I recorded the attached trade on GBP/USD three days ago after the BEOB closed (15th). I proposed that the best strategy would be as indicated....

1) wait for price at 1.65408 and go short (non conservative) (17th)
2) wait for price at 1.63908 and follow it short (conservative)(18th today)

I am fairly new to BEOB/BUOB and did not take it as I'm still feeling my way.
It's obvious now that...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 2008 ob.gif Size: 18 KB
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,116
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:59am Sep 18, 2009 11:59am
Quoting benji533
Thank you guys for the comment. But unfortunately you are missing my point. At this stage I do not care about what works ant what not. I didn't even look if the div worked on my example chart, I just searched for a double MACD tops and a higher price top.

The thing that I want to know is the reason, sense, logic, factors for this to work. I want to know why. I can't see any sense. It's the same with the moving averages post I had last week, and Jarroo's reply. I want to know why these tools work.

Ben

You are NEVER going to make it if you have to know why, you can take 2 exact same setups, same time, same date same everything and one works and one does not work. What you NEED to be working on if something that works for you MOST of the time OR if it does not work most of the time make sure your winners make a LOT more then your losers. Who cares about the logic and all that other crap because I will tell you that it WILL drive you nuts and NOT make you any money, read my post a few pages back about people that know everything about the market and still can not trade. don't be like them.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #44,117
  • Sep 18, 2009 11:59am Sep 18, 2009 11:59am
Quoting benji533
Thank you guys for the comment. But unfortunately you are missing my point. At this stage I do not care about what works ant what not. I didn't even look if the div worked on my example chart, I just searched for a double MACD tops and a higher price top.

The thing that I want to know is the reason, sense, logic, factors for this to work. I want to know why. I can't see any sense. It's the same with the moving averages post I had last week, and Jarroo's reply. I want to know why these tools work.

Ben

Ah - ready - here is the answer <drum roll>

Because they do.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,118
  • Sep 18, 2009 12:04pm Sep 18, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting benji533
.

Riddle me this batman -

How do you enter? I like breakouts, but I've always taken PA as entry points - a pull back and a bar, a PA bar that gets me out of the range - enter on the break. Got a rule you employ? Many breakouts don't give a PA entry, which provides me a great deal of trade comfort. Am I missing something?
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #44,119
  • Sep 18, 2009 12:12pm Sep 18, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
You are NEVER going to make it if you have to know why, you can take 2 exact same setups, same time, same date same everything and one works and one does not work....
Crap? is it crap to know what you are doing? Yea, I care about logic.
No, it doesn't drive me nuts at all.

Think about what you are doing. I don't care if it works most of the time. It isn't about making winners. It's about psychology. I want to know what I'm doing.

Playing something just because in the past it worked more than failed, is gambling. You may make money from gambling, but it is still gambling. I hate gambling. I don't want my living depend on gambling.

I don't think that searching for these answers will stop me from "making it". To be honest, for me personally, inside, I am already making it.

If anyone here knows a website or a book that goes deep into moving averages and divergence - please let me know. I can't believe that one day someone just decided that it works, and everyone followed him. There must be a research process that leaded to these indicators.


Ben
  • #44,120
  • Sep 18, 2009 12:15pm Sep 18, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting StoragePro
Riddle me this batman -

How do you enter? I like breakouts, but I've always taken PA as entry points - a pull back and a bar, a PA bar that gets me out of the range - enter on the break. Got a rule you employ? Many breakouts don't give a PA entry, which provides me a great deal of trade comfort. Am I missing something?
I don't have any rules. I use common sense on each trade to enter and manage it. But the tools are always the same.

Check this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44087

Ben
52 traders viewing now