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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #6,001
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:28pm Sep 17, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting benkm108
thanks for that fx.
nice write up. i know i have should hav gotten out of that fcr at be or with a small loss, as it didnt go anywhere for 20 minutes, no speed or rythm.
In Mark Fisher's book he says that the good trades take off right away. He also uses a bus analogy and he says if the bus hangs around letting everyone on then you probably don't want to be on the bus. He says something like if the market just stalls it lets the retail people on and you don't want to be trading with them.

So yes, the fact it didn't move for a while was the first clue. At least I should have exited on the big reversal bar. Instead I got out quite a bit lower.

I've been studying my charts and I've decided I'm going to start cutting my losses quicker. I initially started doing this when I was starting this thread but then the idea of having a loose stop to catch a runner was appealing. I'm now reading an excellent book by Al Brooks and he says every trade starts with a scalp and then if you think it's right you swing it. I think this is good advice. If you're in scalp mode and it goes against you then you will exit right away and wait for a better entry. And if it goes in your favor then you can easily say you're going to let it run.

However if I am thinking of that 50 pip runner from the beginning then I'm much more likely to give it room and end up with a 25 pip loss.

I hope that makes sense and doesn't go against the consensus here. I'm still learning all this but that's my take. I was actually profitable from the beginning when I was at the 21/20 stage. Then when I started being more aggressive giving it room and looking for runners I started having loosing days. So I think a mix of the two could work best. Count on a scalp and keep your losers small but let it run if the market looks like it will continue..
  • #6,002
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:32pm Sep 17, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting tghfbt8
I think it is called DiNapoli three-period rule.
"If a trade is not in profit by three bars (at whatever your time frame is), get out of trade."
I have never heard of it but I really like it. Seems to be compatible with what I've read from other traders. Thanks for sharing.

And FX thanks for your big post. It brought to my attention that I'm being careless with my stops and not watching them enough. Which goes back to my question earlier about trading from work.. the most important thing is to cut losing trades early. One can't do that if they're not watching.
  • #6,003
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:36pm Sep 17, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting tghfbt8
My trades Today.

Hi Tg,

I am sure one of the others or FX will alos give their comments byt can I offer you mine.

Firstly I would great to post th trades as then people can see where you are at

Trade 1 this was covered a few days back and relates to the fact that you were joining the trned very late ere also the trade wss just prior the news item.

Trade 2 The Buy seemed very late there was a entry point much lower down. The close why ? I don`t really get - did you really exit there or maybe you can explain more ?

Trade 3 Again I don`t really get what you did and would need more explanation

Trade 4 - OK, but given that price di move in your favour quite some way you could have bailed for BE +1 at the worst case rather than getting the hard stop hit.

Trade 5 - I don`t see why you would shoirt from here ?

I hope this helps a little, maybe you can give more details on some of the trades.
Survive and Preserve
  • #6,004
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:56pm Sep 17, 2009 2:56pm
HI Here are my trades form today.

MY trading session has been split today, early London and Eurpena , break following news, then later NY session

Trade 1 - OK but in rerospect I should have bagged more pips on this one, using expectancy to read that the market was not going upside.

Trade 2 - Now well documented by various other traders. My question is could I have played the exit any bete ? Maybe I am getting picky here because when I review my results I haven`t taken hard stop for weeks nd the -17 is the woerst for a long time, so perhaps I should simply move on. FRom what I seee given the price action once in the trade there was not other bailout option for example at BE. Regarding the issue of actuall taking it, there are a couple of rising HL`s which indicated to me at least the probabaility was for upside.

Trade 3. OK bailed near the top.

Trade 4 - also bailed near the double top area.

Thanks to all for a good day`s commentary, exchange of views and trading.
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Survive and Preserve
  • #6,005
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:00pm Sep 17, 2009 3:00pm
Hey guys my first time posting my trades for the day. Took 3 trades, finished +40 ticks. I'm very happy, my most profitable day trading Euro. Thanks to all of you for helping me to learn this method. Especially thanks to those of you who post their charts for the day. I study your charts to find out what I did right & wrong. That has been very helpful. I hope my chart will help someone else as well (maybe to show them my mistakes hehe).
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  • #6,006
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:15pm Sep 17, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting PaulLangham
Hi Tg,

I am sure one of the others or FX will alos give their comments byt can I offer you mine.

Firstly I would great to post th trades as then people can see where you are at

Trade 1 this was covered a few days back and relates to the fact that you were joining the trned very late ere also the trade wss just prior the news item.

Trade 2 The Buy seemed very late there was a entry point much lower down. The close why ? I don`t really get - did you really exit there or maybe you can explain more ?

Trade 3 Again I don`t...
Thanks for comments. Explanations below:
Trade 1: New York Session Opening. Price broke bottom of London Session.
Trade 2. yes, the entry was late. Got scared by big red candle.
Trade 3. Tried to reverse couple of times.
Trade 4. Set 41 pips price target and was away from terminal. Should stick with 21 pips target.
Trade 5. Price failed to make a new high. On top of that end of the New Session is known for reversals.
On last trade got 19 pips.
  • #6,007
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:42pm Sep 17, 2009 7:42pm
hey paul, thanks again for posting ur trades for the day, i really learn alot from them, the trade 2 u had, i was in that as well & i played the #2 scenario as it was a fakeout, after entry price dropped & gave us a new fcr then went back up & failed to break 47 area on 3 different candles( i think it was) so i bailed put then for a small loss, obvioulsy hindsight is great now but maybe u could have got out when the new fcr was broken, not sure, but in the end mate u recovered dusted yourself off & was ahead for the day so well done paul.
again paul u seem to be 1 of the guys that is succeeding with this so keep at it & keep posting those charts cause they are great.
chhers andrew
Survive & Preserve
  • #6,008
  • Sep 17, 2009 8:06pm Sep 17, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting PaulLangham
HI Here are my trades form today.

MY trading session has been split today, early London and Eurpena , break following news, then later NY session

Trade 1 - OK but in rerospect I should have bagged more pips on this one, using expectancy to read that the market was not going upside.

Trade 2 - Now well documented by various other traders. My question is could I have played the exit any bete ? Maybe I am getting picky here because when I review my results I haven`t taken hard stop for weeks nd the -17 is the woerst for a long time, so perhaps...
Paul,

as usual thanks for posting your charts. Simple question: I saw you drew a lot of FCRs there, but you only traded 4 times. I am not saying this is bad, my question is how do you decide what trades you enter? For example, after trade 3, you have several bearish impulses breaking FCRs but you don't enter. Is it to avoid continuations at all?
  • #6,009
  • Sep 17, 2009 8:21pm Sep 17, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting en0x
Moneda,


Do you ever believe that its not the system that makes a trader successful? Sure there are great systems out there and really crap ones. But I have seen a good trader take a basic boring system and make a killing out of it, then you have me, who can take an amazing system and make a dogs breakfast out of it.

Basically you can take the same system and get two completely different results from two traders off it.

There is something that always keeps me losing, always and its not this system, that system or any other. ITs me and my head,...
En0x,

Sorry that I did not respond until now...working to pay the bills... Yes, I agree with you that once one finds an approach/method that is sound like the one we are using here the rest is a matter of experience/attitude/discipline and courage. I can not think of a better place to hone your skills as a trader....this is not a dash...it is more like a marathon... you have to develop very short term memory...like a shooting guard in basketball...they keep on shooting ....they don't worry about the one they missed... fugget awbow it! trade an amount that doesn't bother you.. otherwise...the desire to recoup your losses clouds your mind. I once asked a very successful man what he consider to be the most important ingredient to his success....his answer was PERSISTENCE.

Best to you.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #6,010
  • Sep 18, 2009 12:50am Sep 18, 2009 12:50am
Good Morning Guys,
I decided to not make a post about PA.. I think it will create confusion.. and complicates things.. we are all about simplicity and would like it to countinue so.. it would take away from "IF and THEN".. this thread is not a system or etc.. its about training your naked eyes with some simple tools at your disposal..
I rather go over things in the moment and give pointers when we are live trading.. hinsight is a different story..
I though about this alot last night, and honestly, I could not come up with something solid and more I thought about it I realized I wouldn't know exactly how i would have reacted myself to that 4743 fcr for sure.. (I was not trading at that time)..
i hope you understand my honesty..
the last thing we want is second guessing and confusion..

Thank you.
  • #6,011
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:01am Sep 18, 2009 1:01am
i am long at the moment.. with knowing that first opportunity on this bullish swing was at the first blue shade based on fcr break.. the one i have taken is the countinuation.. but its after some rage time and bracket form.. so i took it base on BB.. lets see how it will shapes up..
will it be a runner? fakeout? semi fakeout? I don't know.. nor I care.. I am out to put myself to test to play the best exepectancy possible..

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  • #6,012
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:07am Sep 18, 2009 1:07am
morning. first play of the day for me, 1,2,3@14723, price failed to push further so out @ BE, now looking for break below FCR
  • #6,013
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:09am Sep 18, 2009 1:09am
oh just saw your post fx. cheers

Edit: i have reentered at the same price as price failed to make a LL, i should however possibly still be in from the first break..

Edit: i hope you all dont mind me posting my thoughts out loud
  • #6,014
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:13am Sep 18, 2009 1:13am
Quoting benkm108
morning. first play of the day for me, 1,2,3@14723, price failed to push further so out @ BE, now looking for break below FCR

did you enter right at 4723?
  • #6,015
  • Edited 1:21am Sep 18, 2009 1:20am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting fxachilies
did you enter right at 4723?
3 pips above
  • #6,016
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:28am Sep 18, 2009 1:28am
Quoting benkm108
3 pips above
so you closed at BE right at the next candel which is a bearish one..
another words you did not let it develop enough..
that is not correct expectancy!! that is trading scared..
you need to led the retrace develop.. otherwise you would have a hard time catching runners or even banking 21 pips.. the only time you will is if its straight shoot up.. and thats not how market move 90% of times..
you need to feel and experience the twist and turns in order to develop into a better more profitable trader..

just a humble advise..
  • #6,017
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:35am Sep 18, 2009 1:35am
played #2 to prefection... held my ground to the end.. and now playing IF and Then and dance his soung.. and sooner or later if it swings away i be in it for sure..

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  • #6,018
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:41am Sep 18, 2009 1:41am
i see, i got out on the 6:55 candle which was 15 minutes later as i didnt see any rythm or speed, i then got back in at the same price once i realised i shouldve still been in(not the correct way of doing things) and got stopped at 14713, now short from there. yep experience will learn me.

im grateful for your comments.

Again i see your perfect reading of the market...
  • #6,019
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:42am Sep 18, 2009 1:42am
hey guys , i m currently short
Survive & Preserve
  • #6,020
  • Sep 18, 2009 1:42am Sep 18, 2009 1:42am
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