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  • #5,421
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:07pm Sep 16, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting strat
Sorry, I don't follow EURAUD - also I don't have enough data. Maybe others will help.

Not one of my staples - I'd be selling that though.
  • #5,422
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:28pm Sep 16, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting strat
Sorry, I don't follow EURAUD - also I don't have enough data. Maybe others will help.
Here's my take on this,


See chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud091609w1.png Size: 79 KB
  • #5,423
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:35pm Sep 16, 2009 10:35pm
Here is another chart of euraud daily


More CHOP you would be selling into......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud091609d1.png Size: 47 KB
  • #5,424
  • Sep 16, 2009 11:58pm Sep 16, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting Dabestone
Thanks for the reply and advice Strat Will read and learn from you guys, hopefully 1 day I will be as good ad you guys and contribute more to this thread too

Cheers,
Sean.
Hey are you from fx4noobs? Your name looks familiar
  • #5,425
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:09am Sep 17, 2009 12:09am
Quoting strat
At the risk of forever being cursed, can it really get any simpler than this?
My first thought looking at this chart was that its dangerous entering at the TL in case it finds resistance there again. But when you take the bullish PA and long term uptrend into account our chances of breakout are pretty good.

A lot of times we have to trade into resistance or support, because if we are trading a hammer from a dip, that dip was created by some resistance near by. For example in that trade there was some resistance around or a little above your entry. So how do you deal with that?

Sorry if this isnt very clear, but its been bothering me a little bit. Thinking about it now I guess I already know the answer.
  • #5,426
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:55am Sep 17, 2009 12:55am
Seeing how strong some of the trends have been on some pairs (nzdusd, usdcad etc) it reminds me of the power of the saying:

"You must take every with-trend entry and only trade counter trend once a new trend is established- you will only be wrong once; at the top (or bottom if short)'
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,427
  • Sep 17, 2009 1:30am Sep 17, 2009 1:30am
Quoting Naws
Hey are you from fx4noobs? Your name looks familiar
hey naws... yeap... i, from there

It's no wonder your name sounds familiar to me too. Nice to meet u

How have u been doing?
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #5,428
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:33am Sep 17, 2009 3:33am
Quoting Grimweasel
Seeing how strong some of the trends have been on some pairs (nzdusd, usdcad etc) it reminds me of the power of the saying:

"You must take every with-trend entry and only trade counter trend once a new trend is established- you will only be wrong once; at the top (or bottom if short)'
yeh, although frustrating, but let you gauge the trend early.
  • #5,429
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:52am Sep 17, 2009 3:52am
If anyone is long CHF in any positions (like short USDCHF or short GBPCHF)you might want to check your stops or watch out for news coming up.
In a few hours it is the Swiss National Bank interest rate statement and this is a central bank that likes to meddle in their currency to stop if from getting too strong. They talk the talk anyhow and threaten too and it gets the market moving. They usually target EUR and that rate does not look too bad but they might make comments because of the level of USDCHF
The news is at 08:00 London time, 13:00 UK time
  • #5,430
  • Sep 17, 2009 1:52pm Sep 17, 2009 1:52pm
Quoting Naws
My first thought looking at this chart was that its dangerous entering at the TL in case it finds resistance there again. But when you take the bullish PA and long term uptrend into account our chances of breakout are pretty good.

A lot of times we have to trade into resistance or support, because if we are trading a hammer from a dip, that dip was created by some resistance near by. For example in that trade there was some resistance around or a little above your entry. So how do you deal with that?

Sorry if this isnt very clear, but its been...
“”My first thought looking at this chart was that its dangerous entering at the TL in case it finds resistance there again””

If we didn’t break resistance or support, we would never move anywhere!

“”For example in that trade there was some resistance around or a little above your entry. So how do you deal with that?””

It’s just a trade – it either works or it doesn’t! However, I believe I have the odds all on my side:

The major trend is UP
The market is making a big ascending triangle (using the high)
The market has put in a higher supply PRICE (HL)
The immediate DSRI demand line has been broken
There is weakness across the other JPY pairs

“”Thinking about it now I guess I already know the answer.””

So is my answer the same as yours?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,431
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:58pm Sep 17, 2009 2:58pm
) This is the 5th day of hard selling and PRICE has finally reached the point at which there is no further demand (sellers). In fact, PRICE reached a level at which supply (buyers was found.

Strat
Not trying to be anal, but i'm slightly confused as to your terminology.
To my mind, Demand = buyers, Supply= sellers, which is the opposite of what you said.
In a past life, when i needed to buy, there was accepted market terminology, used to speed up the transaction, basically abbreviations.
If buying, you would shout: "Mine" x amt, " I'll Take" x amt.
if selling, you would shout: "Yours" x amt, "I'll Give Ya" x amt. ( Titter ye not, i'd like a quid for every time i shouted I'll give ya one!!)http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Coupled with the arcane hand signals, all signified :selling- supplying to the mkt at the current price,
buying- demand for the currency at the current market price.

Probably not worth a rat's ass, but i have to reverse your terminolgy in my brain.

  • #5,432
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:23pm Sep 17, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting golfer27
) This is the 5th day of hard selling and PRICE has finally reached the point at which there is no further demand (sellers). In fact, PRICE reached a level at which supply (buyers was found.

Strat
Not trying to be anal, but i'm slightly confused as to your terminology.
To my mind, Demand = buyers, Supply= sellers, which is the opposite of what you said.
[font=Arial]In a past life, when i needed to buy, there was accepted market terminology, used to speed up the...

FINALLY!


Thank you, Golfer27! It seems you are the ONLY ONE reading AND understanding!

I fully expected to be pulled up over it the first time I posted it, but I wasn't, so I thought I'll continue to play the game! In fact I thought I will do it more and more rubbing salt into the ever deeper wound.

What happened to all the other ex brokers and ex bankers out there reading this thread? - I guess that's why they're "EX"!

Naws - when you are up and running, give Golfer27 a bronze pick.

OK, since the game is up, prior to this post, everywhere I said "demand" should have been "supply" and vicky vercky.

From this post forward:

DEMAND = SUPPORT = BUYERS

SUPPLY = RESISTANCE = SELLERS
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,433
  • Sep 17, 2009 4:40pm Sep 17, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting strat

So is my answer the same as yours?
Yea basically, every trade is a gamble but we only trade when the odds are on our side.
  • #5,434
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:05pm Sep 17, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting strat
These two have been the terrible twins for months now - neither helping the other.

Since my target 1.0320 has been penetrated, it looks like she wants a shot at my next target - 1.0270. If she busts that, then I will have to break out the abacus again!
[CHART}
Low today on my data is 1.0274 - 4 pips off my target - I really must do better!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,435
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:09pm Sep 17, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting strat
This last candle hasn't closed but it is, nevertheless, telling us a story.

Who knows what the story is?
USDJPY Price is still in BALANCE - no demand and no supply - everyone is happy (except Alexandra)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,436
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:33pm Sep 17, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting strat
USDJPY Price is still in BALANCE - no demand and no supply - everyone is happy (except Alexandra)
Tease..!
  • #5,437
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:09pm Sep 17, 2009 7:09pm
LOL - I am never happy. Acttually, am I quite happy in this and the crosses (for the moment, again!)
  • #5,438
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:24pm Sep 17, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - I am never happy. Acttually, am I quite happy in this and the crosses (for the moment, again!)
Hey Alexandra,

I was curious as to what would USD/JPY have to do to push you out of your longs? Clsoe below 87? or would you still hold on for the LONG term trade?

Iam assuming your long from some of yours and others comments on the thread lately. (please correct me if i am wrong)

Just trying to understand a little about how you manage risk in these situiations. Maybe you could explain a few of your rules for long term trades?

I would be interested in hearing a little about your method if you wouldnt mind. (maybe in a PM if you would like to keep it off the tread)

Thanks,

Craig
  • #5,439
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:41pm Sep 17, 2009 7:41pm
I was fortunate enough to stab USDJPY on that retest of the 87 level some time ago, for a nice trade; however, I was of the opinion that 93.50 should have held, which it did not, so I was forced to exit a large portion; Consequently, I have been taking buy setups (of Strat's liking!) and sometimes buying support levels since that time with relatively tight trailing stops. So far I am fighting the recent downmove, however. Once the sell points are obliterated, those stops will be loosened and the trade allowed to run....hopefully for many weeks/months.

I should add that this is not a fully typical trade for me. The underlying basis remains fundamental - that the Yen is overbought. Normally, I will use a technical (weekly or monthly) base from which to take trend-based trades on a daily (occassionally 4 hour) basis. Hence the synergy with Strat.
  • #5,440
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:04pm Sep 17, 2009 10:04pm
GBP/JPY may be on the way to hell
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