Ichimoku forever

Before EG fall to D1 TS, I won't think to long. He makes 3mo new high. However, EG may not stop until touch the magical 0.9000 number, probably. EU touchs 1.4700 tip. A historical number, when he started to fall. Beware... Gotta Sleepy. Have a nice day, everyone.

Out of interest, do any of you usually have trades open at the start of NY? The price went pretty wild for 90mins or so on all pairs.

Hi Everyone,

Apologies about the G/Y trade today, not entirely sure the cause of this risk rally today however it certainly allowed the G/Y to hold onto that lower channel support around 148.80 level that we've been trying to break for the past few weeks.

As a few people have expressed a bit of concern/disappointment/doubt after a couple of trades haven't made it today I thought it is a great opportunity to discuss a few issues in more detail and put things into perspective.

Regarding SL placement, VIC is correct. You are either using MM that allows you to potentially sacrifice ?# of pips in return for an opportunity to hit a profit target of ?# of pips or you are longer term trading between S/R levels.

I trade the G/Y using the first method for everyone here because it provides a fixed maximum loss value and a certain sleep at night factor for those who aren't watching the screen all day. i.e you can set an SL a TP and go to work knowing your max losses or gains from a trade.

I also use this method because when targeting smaller TP's such as 50, 70 or even 80 pips on the G/Y this will usually occur within an hour or two of trade entry allowing everyone to have their trade completed on the same day.

The method that Vic is using is a longer term trading method where he enters on a higher timeframe, assesses where the nearest S/R level is that would need to be broken to invalidate the trade trend and then lets it run until the whole ichi signal has played out and the price candle CLOSES back over the longer TF KS. I put "closes" in capitals because until a candle has held over an important S/R level there is no way to know if the trend has completed.

Here Vic has used the 1hr kumo top/4hr KS as his important resistance level on this trade and now we can see why it is important to wait for a candle to close.

Now sure, there is the arguement that what happens if it keeps flying past the S/R level and goes -300 pips. The answer is:

1. You have set yourself some rules before entering the trade so back your judgement and see it out. There is a reason you saw that S/R level as important so trust your analysis.

2. You are in for the long haul so don't sit at the screen watching your hair turn grey, quietly sh@tting yourself in front of a 1min or 5 min chart.

Note the time that the candle is due to close, and leave your computer then come back just before the candle completes.

If you are stopped out, it happens! No one ever said it's a nice experience however it is 100% inevitable. When this does happen, slowly go back over your trade and see if there was anything you could have done to change it/or any mistakes that you made. If there was, learn from it and don't do it again. If not, you have simply been unlucky however focussing on your most recent loss and not all of your previous gains only serves to get you into a negative frame of mind which is terribly dangerous for traders.

The reason that we establish risk reward ratios is so that we know any losscan be regained with 1 successful future trade assuming you follow good MM rules and never trade anything with a less than 1:1 risk reward ratio.

On Vic's trade, it is widely acknowledged that the next key support level on the U/J is 87.00 which is the most recent major low that is yet to be breached. As we have gone through the 90.75 support level it is only psychological support and some barrier interest around the 90 level holding this trade back at the moment.

If Vic enters this trade and holds it to 87.00 he will have made over 300 pips. Unless a major tragedy occurred like 9/11 or a Lehman Bros collapse it is very unlikely that the trade would ever go the wrong way more than 200 pips based both on existing resistance levels in this case and also the fact that you are only waiting for a 1hr candle to close.

The underlying moral of the story is choose a risk profile / method that you are comfortable with and apply it yourself. The guys on here will continue to post trades that they see as great opportunities and MOST importantly have money in themselves. It is up to you if you take them or not.

Regarding trading NY session, this is a GREAT session to trade however as the market is a dynamic system it never reacts entirely the same so you will inevitably have losing trades. The key is to maintain your MM risk reward ration at 1:1 or greater so that any losers you can make back in one winning trade.

Last week saw over 400pips nett profits taken. Sure this week so far we have had some great winners and some annoying losers however it is also only Wednesday so there is plenty more time left for new trade entries to arise.

Finally, make sure you only ever invest an amount into a trade that you can afford to lose! If I was to ask you now how much you would be happy to lose in return for the opportunity to make money from a successful trade your answer should NEVER be over 2.5% of your equity.

If you find yourself seeing trading suggestions as a chance to double your account really quick you are actually gambling, not trading!

We have a system here that works great, it is not 100% perfect otherwise some major investment bank would have Vic locked up in their basement trading 24/7 and everyone else would be bankrupt.

Let's keep our chins up, keep patiently watching the market and you never know when the next great opportunity will come along and blow any losses we've had out of the water.

To give you guys some perspective, despite a few losses along the way I have managed to trade up 1200pips (nett - including losses for those who do not know this term) in a little over 2 weeks. While it was difficult because it has taken more of my time than I would have liked, I can vouch for the fact that this system does make money if you stick by your rules over the longer term.

Cheers!

I hear that the Japanese finance minister has been talking, so that might have affected the technicals.

Pardy

Fantastic read. Thank you Addict. I do understand that there is no silver bullet to trading any market, but I do believe that if done properly, this system can get me where I want to be. Clearly it's done that for you. I hope you've been trading it on a full 100k account $12k isn't a bad haul for 2 weeks

I have to create a trading plan that works for me and stick to it. I can't be all over the place taking every suggestion or I will be in the poor house sooner rather than later. Doesn't mean I won't take any but possibly minimize the number i do take

Thanks again for a great write up and hope to be able to turn things around during the asian session tonight

FkFx

Looks correct on all accounts mate!

Need a completed candle to hold below the kumo on the 30min for the GY.
EU has everything pointing in the right direction
E/G the same.

Good spotting.

Ok bad start for the week for me.., - 40 pips today... didnt trade yest coz of a broken back..
but im heading out..
will see you guys tommorow.
btw.. the thread is awfully quite around when london opens..?
i start around then.. and dont see many here! hopefully today was a one off case
nowadays.. its boring trading alone
im heading out..
G/l

Ichi loves Asia for a reason mate!!

I trade F/Time and I am running on a full account and I think it is only fair to put my money where my mouth when we are providing trading opportunities for others to jump in on.

G/Y takes some taming but when it gives you a 300pip run in a couple of hours which it regularly does (until the last month or two with reduced volume) it's all worth it

Regarding setting yourself up a trading plan, it is really important to consider the volatility and regular trading range of the pairs that you want to follow. G/Y for example can monster you very quickly and drop more pips in an hour than the U/J might do in a day. Pick the more manageable pairs in the short term. U/J, E/J, E/U, U/CHF, E/G. These all trend nicely but don't seem to get the craziness to them that some of the commodity crosses do in particular.

Good luck into the Asian session!

Nice +1

Finally some normal movement +pips on USDCHF, +pips on USDCAD, looking like reclaiming some on USDJPY.

Vic and I are normally about mate however Vic's got night shift at the moment and I had a few things on late last night so slept in today.

Will be online bright and early tomorrow - normally around Frankfurt open.

Hope the back heals - ouch.

Cheers.

For me it depends on my chart, I now only trade daily and 4h time frames which means I am in for a long period. This gives me very very few trades but a higher chance of winning trades.

Important US data releases between 8am to 10am. If it's not NFP, I will just monitor my trade because I am in for a longer period. If I don't have trade, I usually allow the data release first before getting into the trade.

For example, right now I'm still long at a/j. Entered during the TSxKS cross (4h).

I don't think it's the time or session but rather what the technicals and fundamentals are telling you.

EURUSD + 50
USDCHF + 30

I post my charts early.
Thanks again to all members and special to Vic.

Well done doc

any warrior watching USDCAD? On 5M posibble bearish cross, higher TF with short bias.
regards
oromek

Awesome! I want to do that.

Steve

Hi Oromek,

Hope you trusted yourself on that analysis it was well done!.

I might join you on a 1min retracement and ahold below 1.0650. 1.0650 is the critical number here to hold below. It is the next major support level.

Cheers!

Anytime someone wants to drop the hammer on the UJ, I'd appreciate it lol

http://www.speedysigns.com/images/de.../H/244/674.jpghttp://media5.picsearch.com/is?6Glpy...BtPJwXHRKZogBM

I missed that part, anyway that's weekly R/S line, maybe 5M wont honor it for 50 pips. So far unfortunately it works good.
I'm afraid you're right, that trade shouldn't have been taken.
thanks