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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,381
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:08pm Sep 15, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting Interceptor
Another Great Man within Forex Factory once said, "If you can't trade a sideways market consistently at breakeven or better, you have ZERO chance of success in this business".
The first question is when can you define a range? Price has only been up at the present level for 4 or 5 days. To me this is too early. So what do you do? Actually it's quite simple. You trade the developing range, but with a bullish bias, thereby providing yourself with a degree of protection against the greater trend.
The quantity or frequency of trading opportunities...
I wasn't trying to suggest that volume of trades is important or that you can't wait for an A+ setup, but waiting for the price to retrace to 1.4400 in my opinion is wrong...the price might not retrace at all to anywhere near that level, I was just suggesting that you have to move with market and adapt your trading to the current conditions.

Totally agree...impatience is high on the list of things that kills accounts for newbies in my opinion, over eagerness to trade causes you to take average trades at best and lose money fast which starts the snowball affect of fear and the need to make back that money which is where money management goes out of the window and before long the account has gone. As Jacko would say..the first rule of trading is 'do not lose money'.
  • #9,382
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:25pm Sep 15, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Overbought...why do you say that, please don't say MACD, RSI or any other lagging indicator is telling you it is overbought?

For an A+ trade you should be looking at potential areas to go long...these areas will be previous resistance turned support levels or wait for the price to create new S/R range levels.

I think you will be waiting a while for the price to retrace to 1.4400.

The next known area of resistance is the 1.4720 area.
Overbought or moved up too far, whichever. No MACD or RSI just that this is working on day 9 or now maybe 10 of upward movement. I would think that there would be some profit taking soon. I am thinking in the 1.455 area.

That is just a gut feel though.

If I can have a gut feel as a newbie.
  • #9,383
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:47pm Sep 15, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting truckjrt
Overbought or moved up too far, whichever. No MACD or RSI just that this is working on day 9 or now maybe 10 of upward movement. I would think that there would be some profit taking soon. I am thinking in the 1.455 area.

That is just a gut feel though.

If I can have a gut feel as a newbie.

Ok, understood now. Just because it has gone up 9/10 does not mean there is a higher probability it will go down or is due a down day. Not sure what price you mean as that is a typo? As it happens I have just entered a short trade...but for technical reasons with a stop above the next resistance level (1.4720) at 1.4730.

The technical reasons is not based on Jacko principles though and my trendlines are not what Jacko would be trading and I do count this trade as higher risk as it is counter-trend.

I will post a chart tomorrow to explain further. I also like the correlation with the MSCI World Stock Index as described on dailyfx.com.

The E/U is very correlated with stocks at the moment rather than economic news which can be seen from the price movement upon the really good set of US data today...price started to retrace and then followed US stocks to make yearly highs.
  • #9,384
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:26pm Sep 15, 2009 6:26pm
Originally Posted by User Name
yes

"...but the probabilities of a bear move are greater than a bull move." Why? Based on the size of the move with no major retracement a lot of buyers are already in a trade, when price hit 1.4652 some got out as you can see by how priced pulled away from that level instead of plowing through it.(this was my thought process yesterday)

"..I don't think there are enough buyers to push it past that without a retrace first." Why? same as above

Trading for me is a game of probabilities, I don't look at each individual trade and get happy if I win or pissed if I lose, I know there will be losses and wins, but as long as my account is going up I don't care.

Quoting Interceptor
Really important point to make here. Remember Jacko's original principles? The one about looking at the chart on your screen, and if you get confused asking the 5 year old to tell you which direction it's going in? That way you ensure that you only trade pro-trend, and the a/h gets to work it's magic.
We all get confused(even the Great Man!), and, from time to time, bogged down by bringing personal luggage to the table re fundamental overviews and opinions. And you know what they say about opinions, don't you?
Stick a 300 bar 4 hour chart of fiber...
I didn't come on here to argue with anyone, I thought I specified my reason for entering this trade in my other post. Anyway if we had strong trending market like we did before March 2008, then it would be stupid to trade counter trend, however, with the current situation where we seem to have a trend change every week or two (on the 4h chart) I prefer to trade both ways if I feel that the opportunity is there. Trend trading is still my bread and butter strategy, however if there is a counter trend set up that I feel is worth entering, I will do it also. I don’t enter after every move hoping for a pull back only when the risk reward ratio is in my favor and I feel we have hit a support or resistance area. My target for this trade is at least 200 pips however I will take 100 if the trade goes my way and then starts to reverse. If we see 1.4749 first I will lose 1% of my account and if we see 1.4449 I will be 2% richer

The way I trade is that I really don't care what happens with this trade or any other trade, I know that the strategy that I use is sound and makes me profit every month, I don't look at individual trades I just look at my average, kinda like a casino doesn't care and sweat about every single hand of black jack, they have rules they follow which makes them money at the end of the week. I trade 2% with the trend and 1% CT and I have some other rules that I follow, as long as everything aligns I place a trade and walk away.
It's NOT GAMBLING when the odds are in your favor
  • #9,385
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:47pm Sep 15, 2009 7:47pm
I think that is a very good attitude towards trades User Name,keeps the emotions out and yet portrays confidence in your system.

I know you have been around for awhile since I was following your posts way back and maybe that's what they call "experience".

Anyway please keep your good insights coming in.

Thank you.
  • #9,386
  • Sep 15, 2009 7:59pm Sep 15, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting User Name
Originally Posted by User Name
I didn't come on here to argue with anyone,

The way I trade is that I really don't care what happens with this trade or any other trade, I know that the strategy that I use is sound and makes me profit every month, I don't look at individual trades I just look at my average, I trade 2% with the trend and 1% CT and I have some other rules that I follow, as long as everything aligns I place a trade and walk away.
I like this post. I really like the first line I quoted. Nothing wrong with a healthy discussion.

IMHO, one thing we shouldn't lose sight of is that the mere nature of this method is subjective as far as which trades to take and why. It's not as cut and dry as what some people would like to think. If it were then we could just write a computer program and walk away. I believe everyone is going to have some bias one way or another, particularly when the trend is ambigous.
  • #9,387
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:17am Sep 16, 2009 2:17am
Quoting User Name
Originally Posted by User Name...
Can you sum up the system which this thread is devoted to?
  • #9,388
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:21am Sep 16, 2009 2:21am
Quoting RickyRudy
I like this post. I really like the first line I quoted. Nothing wrong with a healthy discussion.

IMHO, one thing we shouldn't lose sight of is that the mere nature of this method is subjective as far as which trades to take and why. It's not as cut and dry as what some people would like to think. If it were then we could just write a computer program and walk away. I believe everyone is going to have some bias one way or another, particularly when the trend is ambigous.
I just asked my youngest son to pop into the room to clear up any ambiguity.
Guess what..................
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  • #9,389
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:33am Sep 16, 2009 2:33am
Quoting Interceptor
I just asked my youngest son to pop into the room to clear up any ambiguity.
Guess what..................
Nobody was claiming the current trend is ambiguous. I was speaking in more general terms, similar to where we were not long ago. Everyone can CLEARLY see we are in an uptrend. The guy makes some salient general points. Why the need to be argumentative and always prove oneself right in this thread? Isn't it about helping each other trade? He made some good points that can help other traders. Time to move on.
  • #9,390
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:26am Sep 16, 2009 3:26am
Quoting Interceptor
Can you sum up the system which this thread is devoted to?
Please see page 1 of this thread.....
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,391
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:31am Sep 16, 2009 3:31am
Hi All

Just a thought and not aimed at anyone as I've enjoyed the recent discussions...

If we play nicely and treat our mistakes like our losses as part of the game we have a higher probability of the experienced posters that have been around long enough to be making money to post here and help us to become profitable. This includes Jacko!!!!

If we decide not to play nice we lose that experience....

Does anyone want to play??
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,392
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:38am Sep 16, 2009 3:38am
Quoting RickyRudy
Nobody was claiming the current trend is ambiguous. I was speaking in more general terms, similar to where we were not long ago. Everyone can CLEARLY see we are in an uptrend. The guy makes some salient general points. Why the need to be argumentative and always prove oneself right in this thread? Isn't it about helping each other trade? He made some good points that can help other traders. Time to move on.
It isn't about being right or wrong.
It's about wanting to keep this thread intact.
Go look around FF, specifically at most of the older threads. They usually follow the same flight path. Firstly, the originator lays out a system or method. This is often a method which he/she has put a lot of work into, and has been trading successfully themselves. Secondly an audience develops, full of traders old and new, who are keen to learn. Everything at this point is fully focused.
But then, the 'tweekers' arrive.
These take many forms; from the indicator junkies, to the EA addicts, to the terminally impatient who just HAVE to be in the market more often than the existing system requires, and the butterflies who stick with a system until it's first, inevitable, drawdown period occurs and then flutter off to the next thread.
Jacko's methodology has been laid out clearly and concisely.
And what's more it works!!! That makes it about as close to 'The Grail' as real life will allow.
I just struggle to understand the 'need' which some have to over-embellish an already proven road map to success.
  • #9,393
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:40am Sep 16, 2009 3:40am
Quoting madpommie
Please see page 1 of this thread.....
Congrats.
Now, anything about No. 4 which is unclear?

"4. stop thinking that you have to "outsmart" the market.
You don't have to..this business is very easy if you leave your brain at the door....just follow the trend = follow the money =going with the flow = barking with the big dogs.
Stop thinking that "it can't be that easy".......it is!!!"
  • #9,394
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:42am Sep 16, 2009 3:42am
On the nail again interceptor though I don't envy letting the whippersnappers near my trading machine.

I'm sensing you are frustrated with the countertrend discussion.

I myself find it extremely valid right now as I am sitting in a Jacko countertrend trade that is going against me.

So, any chatter on here as to the merits of countertrend trading will only help with my psychology and keep me 100% to my plan which is why it took me 9 months longer than it should to become profitable.

So thank you for the countertrend chatter, REALLY NEED IT TODAY as we approach the stop. and I am only human.

Quoting Interceptor
I just asked my youngest son to pop into the room to clear up any ambiguity.
Guess what..................
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,395
  • Sep 16, 2009 4:15am Sep 16, 2009 4:15am
Quoting madpommie
On the nail again interceptor though I don't envy letting the whippersnappers near my trading machine.

I'm sensing you are frustrated with the countertrend discussion.

I myself find it extremely valid right now as I am sitting in a Jacko countertrend trade that is going against me.

So, any chatter on here as to the merits of countertrend trading will only help with my psychology and keep me 100% to my plan which is why it took me 9 months longer than it should to become profitable.

So thank you for the countertrend chatter,...
Don't beat yourself up on this trade. I'm also in it, although every bone in my body was shouting "NO!" at me.
The critical thing is that we learn to be able to accurately second guess Jacko's entries, and subsequently to be able to evaluate and criticise those entries when appropriate. You then arrive at an interesting point where it's almost as though there are two different trading personalities at work within the same trader. The straightforward stuff works brilliantly, ie. draw channel lines and wait. I'm uncomfortable with the times when any fundamental gut feeling seems to fly in the face of the solid methodology though.
Wayne, if you spot this-no offence mate!
  • #9,396
  • Sep 16, 2009 4:52am Sep 16, 2009 4:52am
Quoting madpommie
On the nail again interceptor though I don't envy letting the whippersnappers near my trading machine.

I'm sensing you are frustrated with the countertrend discussion.

I myself find it extremely valid right now as I am sitting in a Jacko countertrend trade that is going against me.

So, any chatter on here as to the merits of countertrend trading will only help with my psychology and keep me 100% to my plan which is why it took me 9 months longer than it should to become profitable.

So thank you for the countertrend...
To add to the countertrend chatter:

Is a countertrend trade still the most probable trade now as we ease upto and bounced off of the resistance line of 1.4715?

I agree and can see that the current trend is up but what is or would have been an entry point since it broke out of the previous trading range? If you are to buy on the dips what was the dip?

Has anyone been long since 1.420?
  • #9,397
  • Sep 16, 2009 5:26am Sep 16, 2009 5:26am
The biggest issue which I have with counter-trend entries is the problems which they cause to the anti-hedge strategy.
When you counter-trend you are effectively climbing without ropes. It's possible to do, but inherently dangerous in comparison to pro-trend entries.
  • #9,398
  • Sep 16, 2009 5:37am Sep 16, 2009 5:37am
Not knocking myself out too much, just remind myself of the statistical probablilties of Wayne's system that help me through the odd loss or 2!

Good Point re the anti-hedge!!

Have any of Waynes guys who do the counter trend trades (not Waynes) down to Waynes entry points go and statistics on the win / loss rates.

Quoting Interceptor
The biggest issue which I have with counter-trend entries is the problems which they cause to the anti-hedge strategy.
When you counter-trend you are effectively climbing without ropes. It's possible to do, but inherently dangerous in comparison to pro-trend entries.
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,399
  • Sep 16, 2009 5:58am Sep 16, 2009 5:58am
Quoting truckjrt
To add to the countertrend chatter:

Is a countertrend trade still the most probable trade now as we ease upto and bounced off of the resistance line of 1.4715?

I agree and can see that the current trend is up but what is or would have been an entry point since it broke out of the previous trading range? If you are to buy on the dips what was the dip?

Has anyone been long since 1.420?
Just to add my .02! Personally I would say the with-trend entry is still the best option and my reasoning is something like this...

I haven't actually been long since 1.4200 but I have been long since 1.4250 (chart attached with reasoning) - it was admittedly a risky entry because NFP Friday was coming up before I placed the order; however it was in the direction of the trend - and I think it is important to stay with your "with-trend" entries. If I had closed my position and then counter-trend traded at the top of the range I wouldn't have caught the long break that we are now in. The most probable trade is always with the trend... no exception - because the trend is the edge we are trying to exploit here (i.e. using this trading method).

I can understand the desire to counter-trend trade because it can be a lot of waiting around while waiting for your moment to strike... which means you aren't trading, which means you aren't making money. But it also means you aren't loosing money and you are sticking with the highest probability entry because the trend really is your friend. I know it's cliché but this thread is based on it. That is something we all need to remember.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #9,400
  • Sep 16, 2009 5:59am Sep 16, 2009 5:59am
Quoting madpommie
Not knocking myself out too much, just remind myself of the statistical probablilties of Wayne's system that help me through the odd loss or 2!
The statistical probability which you rightly mention is the 'edge' which Wayne's trading method has. The 'edge' is easily identifiable as trading with the trend, thus increasing the odds of the market going in your direction and, also, giving you a second bite at the cherry via the a/h system.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why anybody would wish to trade this method without this method's 'edge'.
Apologies for(yet another) rant.
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