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  • #5,301
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:12pm Sep 14, 2009 3:12pm

I wanted to get my hands dirty so here is my first analysis on USDJPY which is not a pair I have much experience on. Please fire me any feedback.

Price Action - I see a bearish pattern (not perfect) = "In Neck Bearish" - this tells me to expect the downtrend to continue but not abruptly. We are approaching the major psycho level of 90.00 so I would expect shorts to be taking profit and bottom fishers to come in here so todays action is not surprising. Tomorrows opening will be important as our bottom fishers may get nervous if price opens lower.



MA's - Big Boss, Boss and Slave are in agreement that the train is heading South. Slave shows increasing downward momentum.


Resistance at 91.729


Support at 90.00


Key level Fridays close at 90.70 = Early Feb Support. Small note - we had little problem pushing below it which gives further bearish tone.


Overall this leaves me bearish, I would not commit to any trades here but would watch the test of 90.00 and tomorrows open.


Volume looks respectable.
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Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,302
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:39pm Sep 14, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting Sinan
[left][size=4][size=4]I wanted to get my hands dirty so here is my first analysis on USDJPY which is not a pair I have much experience on. Please fire me any feedback.

[size=2]Price Action - I see a bearish pattern (not perfect) = "In Neck Bearish" - this tells me to expect the downtrend to continue but not abruptly. We are approaching the major psycho level of 90.00 so I would expect shorts to be taking profit and bottom fishers to come in here so todays action is not surprising. Tomorrows opening will be important as our bottom...
Welcome to the thread! I'd say that is some sound analysis. This is heading south but when you look at the Big Boss chart and zoom out, the down trend becomes clear with the most recent rally looking like a second big bear flag.

Always trade the trend if new - trust me it has taken me a few years to really appreciate this - never think you can outsmart the market - go with the opportunities she presents!

I think we are due a pullback but I would wait for PASR (at DSRI) to show me the way....
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,303
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:40pm Sep 14, 2009 3:40pm
Gas update....
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,304
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:30pm Sep 14, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Gas update....
Danny boy, you are thinking from a “too close” perspective. The most current demand line shown by the DSRI is still angled sharply down (not that green piece of nonsense you have drawn). When price closes above that, THEN we can start thinking “long”.

Also you have drawn a supply DSRI line sloping down – that is totally meaningless.

DSRI supply lines ALWAYS slope UP

DSRI demand lines ALWAYS slope DOWN.

You are obsessed with looking for tops and bottoms, Danny boy! Now if you were on the beach in Ibiza, I could well understand that, but this is a price chart! You need to get out of this habit/style and accept the current prevailing trend UNTIL it shows proof that it is changing/has changed.

Ask yourself a SIMPLE question:

“Has it put in a HH and HL?”

The answer to this tells you what to focus on.

Lastly, you asked me for a list of pairs to trade. This was not on it so I hope this is ONLY your practice stuff!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,305
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:37pm Sep 14, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Gas update....
They don't call her the Widow Maker for nothing...storage is almost full, there are many desperate longs out there with the ability to push the market for a while, also you have all this CFTC action around energy...I would not trust that chart even if she pushes higher...I'm expecting another Amaranth in gas...perhaps many...

I trade Crude and Gold a little but having worked on a commodities desk at an Investment Bank and seeing the level of manipulation at bottoms and tops by the Hedge Funds I would advise "supreme" caution in other commodities. The trend needs to be very clearly established for the manipulation to be minimized.

But perhaps I'm just a wimp

Thanks for your feedback on my first analysis...
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,306
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:49pm Sep 14, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting Sinan
[left][size=4][size=4]I wanted to get my hands dirty so here is my first analysis on USDJPY which is not a pair I have much experience on. Please fire me any feedback.

[size=2]Price Action - I see a bearish pattern (not perfect) = "In Neck Bearish" - this tells me to expect the downtrend to continue but not abruptly. We are approaching the major psycho level of 90.00 so I would expect shorts to be taking profit and bottom fishers to come in here so todays action is not surprising. Tomorrows opening will be important as our bottom...
Sinan, good analysis but the trade on this is over - see my earlier post. The last DSRI supply line is just hanging on by the skin of it's teeth.

There MAY be more downside, I really don't know, nobody does, but I do know that any new short trades down here are HIGH RISK. Only the stupid and foolish money will initiate new short trades here.

With 90 being a psycho number, I would bet any one of my accounts that there are a good few banks with buy stops placed there. Another reason to stay out UNTIL direction is known.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,307
  • Sep 14, 2009 5:06pm Sep 14, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting strat
Danny boy, you are thinking from a “too close” perspective. The most current demand line shown by the DSRI is still angled sharply down (not that green piece of nonsense you have drawn). When price closes above that, THEN we can start thinking “long”....
Thanks Strat - I'm NOT trading this, just using it at a vehicle to help me better understand tops and bottoms due to my past errors in this area. For a long I would, as you say, only be convinced if there was a big TL break then a HH and HL -therefore indicating the possibility of a new trend. As this has been in such a major down trend I'm watching it to better understand what develops when the battle between bulls and bears starts.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,308
  • Sep 14, 2009 5:29pm Sep 14, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting strat
Sinan, good analysis but the trade on this is over - see my earlier post. The last DSRI supply line is just hanging on by the skin of it's teeth.

There MAY be more downside, I really don't know, nobody does, but I do know that any new short trades down here are HIGH RISK. Only the stupid and foolish money will initiate new short trades here.

With 90 being a psycho number, I would bet any one of my accounts that there are a good few banks with buy stops placed there. Another reason to stay out UNTIL direction is known.
Ah ok I see the better DSRI line, mine didn't really see much action, thanks.
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,309
  • Sep 15, 2009 11:18am Sep 15, 2009 11:18am
what do a long term trading method do in consildating market.
  • #5,310
  • Sep 15, 2009 11:20am Sep 15, 2009 11:20am
Quoting rockk
what do a long term trading method do in consildating market.
Stay out and find a market that is trending ...
  • #5,311
  • Sep 15, 2009 11:21am Sep 15, 2009 11:21am
The Power of DSRI
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,312
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:29pm Sep 15, 2009 1:29pm
Strat,
Coincidentally I took the very short you illustrated above on GBP/CHF. I made a few pips but not as many as I had hoped.

I put a sell order in before I went to bed last night at 5 pips below yesterdays low. I set 1/3rd of it to close at +50, and also at +50 my SL was moved to BE (+1) on the other 2/3rds, which I had planned on letting run.

BUT, after my SL was moved to BE (+1) the market turned back up and stopped me out at +1 on the final 2/3rds.

Of course, after I was stopped out price went back on it's trek downward, but oh well. I didn't hit a homerun but I didn't strike out either....

Marto
  • #5,313
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:38pm Sep 15, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting TTMarto
Strat,
Coincidentally I took the very short you illustrated above on GBP/CHF. I made a few pips but not as many as I had hoped.

I put a sell order in before I went to bed last night at 5 pips below yesterdays low. I set 1/3rd of it to close at +50, and also at +50 my SL was moved to BE (+1) on the other 2/3rds, which I had planned on letting run.

BUT, after my SL was moved to BE (+1) the market turned back up and stopped me out at +1 on the final 2/3rds.

Of course, after I was stopped out price went back on it's trek downward, but oh well....
The important point is that (1) you MADE money and (2) didn't LOSE money.

Had you understood The Power of DSRI, you would be in triple pips heaven right now.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,314
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:56pm Sep 15, 2009 1:56pm
Hello
Here are some from my resent trades that were stopped out.
EURGBP BEOB with support of DSRI and 0.8800 resistance area
Gold SS was very nice trade as well.
Im not happy with the results but satisfied with setups.
alter
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  • #5,315
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:07pm Sep 15, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting strat
The Power of DSRI
what is DSRI
  • #5,316
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:14pm Sep 15, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting yab
what is DSRI
Go to the top of the page

Look to the right

At the box that says page 355 of 355, click on "FIRST"

Start READING and UNDERSTANDING Post # 1, when UNDERSTOOD, READ and UNDERSTAND Post # 2 etc., keep READING and UNDERSTANDING until you get back to HERE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,317
  • Edited Sep 16, 2009 3:26am Sep 15, 2009 2:29pm | Edited Sep 16, 2009 3:26am
The power of DSRI .. an update

GBPAUD daily:
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  • #5,318
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:50pm Sep 15, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting alter
Hello
Here are some from my resent trades that were stopped out.
EURGBP BEOB with support of DSRI and 0.8800 resistance area
Gold SS was very nice trade as well.
Im not happy with the results but satisfied with setups.
alter
Alter,

“”Im not happy with the results but satisfied with setups””

And you should NOT be happy.

There is something fundamentally wrong with your trading, Alter. What I see from this is that you are trading EVERY set up.

Every “set up” is NOT A TRADE. Each “set up” must be filtered and qualified BEFORE entering a trade.

Comments on EURGBP chart:

I don’t see a valid DSRI

The most current supply DSRI would have stopped you taking the BEOB.

The immediate trend is UP

It made a HL on Sep 04

What usually follows a HL?

A HL followed by a HH means the trend is UP

The most current supply DSRI would have had you with a long order above yesterday’s high.

You are trading AGAINST the immediate trend

ALWAYS trade WITH the trend NOT against it.

Comments on GOLD chart:

Your SS is not even a Bond SS let alone a pure SS – it is a DOJI

A DOJI means INDECISION

I don’t see a valid DSRI

The immediate trend is UP

You are trading AGAINST the immediate trend

ALWAYS trade WITH the trend NOT against it.
Alter, if you are trading REAL money, you should STOP immediately before you blow your account.

You need a HUGE injection of Dr. Joe before trading again.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,319
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:14pm Sep 15, 2009 3:14pm
Strat I don't understand why DSRI on EURGBP is not valid. Here is bigger picture and it looks pretty significant.

Regarding gold, ok maybe it is not SS I normally call it Pin bar that is also reversal pattern. There is no DSRI but 1000 was tested couple of times and i has always been rejected which tells me 1000is strong rezistance. Trend is up of course as we are looking for SS at the end of the up move.

I trade real money, have still 5 trades runnnig. If I was to stop trading after couple of loosers I guess I wouldn't be mentally prepared.
Thank you for response I will work to modify my strategy.
alter
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  • #5,320
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:43pm Sep 15, 2009 3:43pm
Here are some very interesting observations from a new member who wishes to remain anonymous who worked at a very large Investment Bank:

“”Some of my key thoughts from my time on the front line:

• There is NO big plan, Investment Banks are more like the wild west than the CIA. Traders are all lone rangers (or cowboys) trying to protect their P&L from their usually incompetent manager (who is usually a bad trader who had the right friends).

• There was and still is an “anything goes” culture in regards to risk, the focus is just to make money. As a 28 year old, I was lending $hundreds of millions to hedge funds on a trade I had only just understood and which those above me had no clue (and this was 2008!).

• The big hedge funds are the market movers, not really the Investment Banks. If you want I could go into a little detail on how I saw that working in commodities…

• The Investment Banks, for the most part, aren't any better at taking market positions than the average retail investor; all the propriety trading desks I came across over the years eventually blew up and were closed down. I saw the manager's personal trading books and they were mostly deep in the red. The banks make money on large volumes, spread, borrowing at X and lending at Y, when it gets any more exciting they eventually blow up...

• Trading education was very poor…a course on options, nothing like what FF offers. Most traders loved indicators, demark was the latest fashion (Yeah, baby, Yeah, we LOVE traders who love indicators!). Very few senior traders taught the junior traders anything…

• There were a few good people but generally most of the people were very greedy and ruthless. The more greedy, the more ruthless, the higher they climbed. The good guys all eventually jumped ship...

That’s just a few thoughts right now…I have lots of stories from my former life…if you have any questions feel free to fire them at me.””


What is also very interesting is that I am currently corresponding with a retired Chief Trader of 15 years of a top Investment Bank whose story is just the opposite! No wonder the financial institutions are in such a mess!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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