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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,361
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:14pm Sep 14, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting narberth
I think he set that out in his post 2.5 weeks ago
That makes it right then.
  • #9,362
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:22pm Sep 14, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting truckjrt
Pin Bar???
This answer is better than mine:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=17968&postcount=34
  • #9,363
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:26pm Sep 14, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting Interceptor
And how exactly have you deduced that?
Quoting narberth
I think he set that out in his post 2.5 weeks ago
yes


After we broke out of the current range a few days ago 1.4650-1.4700 is a S&R area where in the past price has stalled or reversed, which now is the next logical resistance area where a lot of people take profit and have short positions waiting. Price does what ever it wants to do, but the probabilities of a bear move are greater than a bull move. Like I said in my other post, price might test the upper range up to 1.4700, but I don't think there are enough buyers to push it past that without a retrace first. But I could be wwwrong

Trading for me is a game of probababilies, I don't look at each individual trade and get happy if I win or pissed if I lose, I know there will be losses and wins, but as long as my account is going up I don't care.
It's NOT GAMBLING when the odds are in your favor
  • #9,364
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:11am Sep 15, 2009 2:11am
Quoting User Name
yes

"...but the probabilities of a bear move are greater than a bull move." Why?

"..I don't think there are enough buyers to push it past that without a retrace first." Why?

Trading for me is a game of probabilities, I don't look at each individual trade and get happy if I win or pissed if I lose, I know there will be losses and wins, but as long as my account is going up I don't care.
Really important point to make here. Remember Jacko's original principles? The one about looking at the chart on your screen, and if you get confused asking the 5 year old to tell you which direction it's going in? That way you ensure that you only trade pro-trend, and the a/h gets to work it's magic.
We all get confused(even the Great Man!), and, from time to time, bogged down by bringing personal luggage to the table re fundamental overviews and opinions. And you know what they say about opinions, don't you?
Stick a 300 bar 4 hour chart of fiber on now.
Which way is it going?
Simples.
Price may go up, price may go down = coin toss.
Trading with the underlying trend only = your edge.
Don't lose it.
  • #9,365
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:24am Sep 15, 2009 2:24am
Quoting Interceptor
Really important point to make here. Remember Jacko's original principles? The one about looking at the chart on your screen, and if you get confused asking the 5 year old to tell you which direction it's going in? That way you ensure that you only trade pro-trend, and the a/h gets to work it's magic.
We all get confused(even the Great Man!), and, from time to time, bogged down by bringing personal luggage to the table re fundamental overviews and opinions. And you know what they say about opinions, don't you?
Stick a 300 bar 4 hour chart of fiber...
Jacko's principles are to trade in the direction of the trend...but that does not mean he doesn't enter trades against the trend, it just means that the prime trades he is looking for our pull backs in order to go long in an up trend.

The E/U is not 'trending' as such like it was in the bull run we had in previous years and thus you need to adapt your trading to current market conditions. When the price was consolidating or range trading, you would use the same principles of S/R 50% fib to enter trades in both directions.

A short at the current level is higher risk than entering a long from lower levels 1.4380 previous support...but what if the price takes weeks to retrace back to there or never does? The price has been trading within a tight range of 1.4500 to 1.4650 and his been struggling to rise higher to the 1.4720 resistance area...thus surely you can conclude than on the 4H chart even though the overall direction is gradually up, we are currently within a range again and thus we can trade in both directions, with the knowledge that a short is a higher risk trade than a long.

Now watch the price shoot up now I've said that we are within a range!

Plenty of news events today so could cause some decent price action.
  • #9,366
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:59am Sep 15, 2009 2:59am
Quoting lovejoy80
Jacko's principles are to trade in the direction of the trend...but that does not mean he doesn't enter trades against the trend, it just means that the prime trades he is looking for our pull backs in order to go long in an up trend.

The E/U is not 'trending' as such like it was in the bull run we had in previous years and thus you need to adapt your trading to current market conditions. When the price was consolidating or range trading, you would use the same principles of S/R 50% fib to enter trades in both directions.

A short at the current...
Another Great Man within Forex Factory once said, "If you can't trade a sideways market consistently at breakeven or better, you have ZERO chance of success in this business".
The first question is when can you define a range? Price has only been up at the present level for 4 or 5 days. To me this is too early. So what do you do? Actually it's quite simple. You trade the developing range, but with a bullish bias, thereby providing yourself with a degree of protection against the greater trend.
The quantity or frequency of trading opportunities doesn't matter.
All that matters is the quality of them.
You earn your pips by waiting for the right ones, and hopefully ignoring the smelly ones.
Impatience is an absolute killer-ask my wallet!
  • #9,367
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:20am Sep 15, 2009 3:20am
Hi Guys

You are both right!!!

However, Jacko normally only takes AAA+ trend trades but sometimes he takes AA+ countertrend trades.

What does he look for in a countertrend trade???

INHO...
Price struggles to get above a certain price and to make higher highs...7 hourly bars in the last 2 days tested Fridays high of 1.4637
Price at the top of a channel.... looks pretty neat to me. It's also very shallow and like username said arguably a range.

So, this would suggest that probabilites are in our favour.

Are we right to go short down to the retracement? Yes!

Will we make pips?? I don't know but probably.

There are a subset of Waynes group who always take the moves back to Wayne's entry points. Maybe they could post some stats. How many trades over what period with win / loss % and avearage pips per trade. I'd post myself but only just done my first one so no data.

Hope that helps and remember we are here to help each other!!!

Quoting Interceptor
Really important point to make here. Remember Jacko's original principles? The one about looking at the chart on your screen, and if you get confused asking the 5 year old to tell you which direction it's going in? That way you ensure that you only trade pro-trend, and the a/h gets to work it's magic.
We all get confused(even the Great Man!), and, from time to time, bogged down by bringing personal luggage to the table re fundamental overviews and opinions. And you know what they say about opinions, don't you?
Stick a 300 bar 4 hour chart of fiber...
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,368
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:36am Sep 15, 2009 3:36am
Quoting madpommie
Hi Guys

Hope that helps and remember we are here to help each other!!!
Couldn't agree more, and I hope that my bull-in-a-china-shop manners don't cause offence. None intended.
I always keep a wary eye out for phrases like:
"I think the market is due a fall"
"I believe the market is going down"
"I have a feeling that we may go up from here"
Such expressions are absolute, stone cold, nailed to the floor account killers.
The hard truth is that all such 'Mystic Trading Guru Market Master' type nonsense is absolutely unnecessary with Jacko's method of trading fiber.
Indeed, the chances of success go up considerably when you avoid such "feelings" and "beliefs" like the plague.
  • #9,369
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:58am Sep 15, 2009 3:58am
LOL, None taken!!!! ....anything that stimulates positive conversation is always good.

I had to laugh at what makes you wary.

Jacko's rules are very simple and yet he very rarely places orders, he watches price sooOOoo much and uses words like "I believe" ...EVEN IN TODAYS BLOG!

I found this very hard to get used to as it feels like he is also a gut feel trader. None of us can say we know the market is going down and therefore it can only be...

.... a belief based on probabilities drawn from our assumptions of past experience of price action!!?? IMHO

I think that when anyone sees "I believe" from one of Jacko's group the should change it to the above.

On the flip side maybe when we find ourselves saying "I believe" we should rephrase to the above.

PS I never did like China shops!!

Quoting Interceptor
Couldn't agree more, and I hope that my bull-in-a-china-shop manners don't cause offence. None intended.
I always keep a wary eye out for phrases like:
"I think the market is due a fall"
"I believe the market is going down"
"I have a feeling that we may go up from here"
Such expressions are absolute, stone cold, nailed to the floor account killers.
The hard truth is that all such 'Mystic Trading Guru Market Master' type nonsense is absolutely unnecessary with Jacko's method of trading...
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,370
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:11am Sep 15, 2009 4:11am
Jacko does state that this short trade is counter-trend and therefore carries a higher degree of risk...
  • #9,371
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:20am Sep 15, 2009 4:20am
A counter trend trade maybe 'lower probability" than a trade with the the trend, but your risk shouldn't change. If anything you can adjust your risk lower for the counter trend trade.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #9,372
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:24am Sep 15, 2009 4:24am
Yes goose, you are correct... I meant lower probability as you have already mentioned.
  • #9,373
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:56am Sep 15, 2009 4:56am
Quoting Interceptor
Couldn't agree more, and I hope that my bull-in-a-china-shop manners don't cause offence. None intended.
I always keep a wary eye out for phrases like:
"I think the market is due a fall"
"I believe the market is going down"
"I have a feeling that we may go up from here"
Such expressions are absolute, stone cold, nailed to the floor account killers.
The hard truth is that all such 'Mystic Trading Guru Market Master' type nonsense is absolutely unnecessary with Jacko's method of trading...
I tend to agree that such statements with no justification indicate a level of bs that should be avoided but I have yet to see a mechanical system that can make money in all market conditons and if it was possible to trade wih no discretionary input then we could all leave it to our EAs and go down the pub .

In this case I think username set out his reasoning in his first post
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,374
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:41am Sep 15, 2009 6:41am
Quoting narberth
I tend to agree that such statements with no justification indicate a level of bs that should be avoided but I have yet to see a mechanical system that can make money in all market conditons and if it was possible to trade wih no discretionary input then we could all leave it to our EAs and go down the pub .

In this case I think username set out his reasoning in his first post
All 'reasoning' is hypothesis.
Trade what you see-not what you 'guess'.
  • #9,375
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:42am Sep 15, 2009 6:42am
Quoting Interceptor
All 'reasoning' is hypothesis.
Trade what you see-not what you 'guess'.
LOL. Trading is your best guess.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #9,376
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:57am Sep 15, 2009 6:57am
Quoting LasVahGoose
LOL. Trading is your best guess.
Tbh, if I ever end up looking at a screen and having to 'guess' which direction price has been moving in, then it's time to turn the computer off.
  • #9,377
  • Sep 15, 2009 10:13am Sep 15, 2009 10:13am
interceptor

how to do you determine your entry?
if ur not guessing using probabilities what is ur stratagey ?

(could not find what ur point was in previous posts)
  • #9,378
  • Sep 15, 2009 1:01pm Sep 15, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting IliaM
interceptor

how to do you determine your entry?
if ur not guessing using probabilities what is ur stratagey ?

(could not find what ur point was in previous posts)
In an uptrend, at the bottom of the channel.
In a downtrend, at the top of the channel.
In a ranging market(once the range is established), at either top or bottom.
If the range is not established, then following the direction of the previous trend.
I'm exceptionally annoyed with myself today.
Tomorrow I shall wear the clown's red nose all day, as penance.
  • #9,379
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:28pm Sep 15, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting truckjrt
I agree that the market is set to move down but at what point would you abandon the thought it will return to 1.44 and start going long from the current levels?

Any thoughts on when to jump ship on PA coming back down to 1.44 or so? Or is it so overbought now, (up 10 of 11 days, 9 in a row) that the odds of it coming down is all but certain?
  • #9,380
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:54pm Sep 15, 2009 2:54pm
Overbought...why do you say that, please don't say MACD, RSI or any other lagging indicator is telling you it is overbought?

For an A+ trade you should be looking at potential areas to go long...these areas will be previous resistance turned support levels or wait for the price to create new S/R range levels.

I think you will be waiting a while for the price to retrace to 1.4400.

The next known area of resistance is the 1.4720 area.
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