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  • #3,561
  • Sep 14, 2009 11:51am Sep 14, 2009 11:51am
Quoting Patience
I would have liked to have seen that as well before it continued up as it did.

Just popping in, I guess I was expecting more of a down day today with maybe a turnaround on Tuesday. I'm not in anything (due to my lack of broadband) except for my short positions in the 0.8400 area. Looks like a double bottom on my 4 hour chart now in the 0.8550 area so this is an area for me to watch now.

I guess Bin Laden's release of his new video hasn't helped matters as well as the protectionist tariffs by the US on Chinese steel and tires.

Bank of Scotland's...
Hi Patience, Thanks for posting BOS's report. I remember you mentioned you are not a fan of COT report, well , I'm using this website for a while and I'm not sure if you used it before so I posted here, it's fun to use coz you can play with the options and there are lots of other stuff to look at too, I usually use COT index at 13 weeks and also the net position of future and options at Large Inst, when you look at it you might find it somewhat related to market trends, specially the extreme ones (COT index 13 at 0 or 100) .for fun I calculated the relationship between between EURUSD and COT net position and COT index 13 (using a simlpe excel macro), and in 55 weeks it was correct about 68% ,which is not bad, it means the odds of 1.47 to break/even so if you use RRR:1:1 you should be doing well in long run without that much confusing analysis which we all do. for you information the COT index for AUD ,CHF ,JPY and Gold are at extreme so watch out for a deep correction in the current up trend soon this week

http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
  • #3,562
  • Sep 14, 2009 11:54am Sep 14, 2009 11:54am
I entered with 10 pips stop loss

But I am out with just 16 pips (so risk aversive)

But shall go down
  • #3,563
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:11pm Sep 14, 2009 3:11pm
this pair is a lost cause. I am seriously tired of waiting for it to go back down!! Especially with no major news coming out this week...
The Sky is the Limit!
  • #3,564
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:34pm Sep 14, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting ahlamo
this pair is a lost cause. I am seriously tired of waiting for it to go back down!! Especially with no major news coming out this week...
Consumer spending is major news tomorrow morning for the US stock market... this could potentially finally take her down or pop her over 0.8700.

S&P closed pennies shy of 1050, which is a very significant level; bad consumer spending news would be a perfect catlyst to finally take the stocks down and risk currencies like AUD along with it; if that happens the EURO may even go 1.4400.
  • #3,565
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:41pm Sep 14, 2009 3:41pm
I have longer term targets on this pair for 0.9105.

Fundamentals in Australia are extremely strong with one of the highest
interest rates in the world and a strong economy with low unemployment.

In my opinion any short positions are simply a retracement of the current strong and continuing upward trend.
  • #3,566
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:50pm Sep 14, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
for you information the COT index for AUD ,CHF ,JPY and Gold are at extreme so watch out for a deep correction in the current up trend soon this week

http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
Hi shahab8b

Thanks for that link. Will have a little play around. I've been trying to catch up on my reading/funnymental stuff this evening while I am near a computer and I'm wondering when this ball might start rolling. If it does, let's all watch out ....

How to Prepare For China’s Coming Derivatives Default

China, who owns more Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets than anyone, was obviously not too pleased about this. They’ve asked time and time again for the US to stop what it is doing. However, Geithner, Bernanke, et al, simply plowed ahead ignoring their requests (Geithner actually told a group of students in China that the math behind the US’s policies were solid which resulted in the students laughing at him).

China’s decision to default on its commodity derivatives is a very clever means of slapping the US Federal Reserve in the face without “going nuclear” by selling Treasuries outright.

Commodities account for the smallest portion of derivatives on US commercial bank balance sheets ($938 billion out of $200 trillion). A default here would trigger a chain reaction that could essentially wipe out the Fed’s attempts are re-capitalization (the US banks would suddenly be on the hook for billions in losses that they didn’t expect). It’s a very serious indirect way of China saying, “if you want to continue screwing around, we’ll simply walk away from the table.” But they’re doing it in a select asset class that no one but Wall Street engages in (derivatives).



The primary issues now are:

  1. Whether China WILL actually begin defaulting (remember, so far it’s just a threat).
  2. Whether or not China’s decision would trigger a larger chain reaction in the derivatives markets.
  3. How the US will respond to China’s threat.

... that a derivative chain reaction throughout the financial system could cause a full-blown implosion like September-November 2008. We’re talking about massive volatility (2%+ swing days) and a stock market collapse of 20-30% within a matter of weeks.

To read full article: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index....icle&sid=13426

Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,567
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:37pm Sep 14, 2009 4:37pm
Oooopppsss, forgot to post the Sentiment Index for those of you who like to have a squiz. Those retail traders are just lapping up that NZD aren't they?


SSI: USDJPY Positioning Pulls Back Sharply from Extreme after Rally from 7-month Lows
Monday, 14 September 2009 19:19:40 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXCM Sentiment.PNG Size: 51 KB



Intraday Highlight

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.60 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.43 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 28.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.6% higher than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 26.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,568
  • Sep 14, 2009 7:18pm Sep 14, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting Patience
Oooopppsss, forgot to post the Sentiment Index for those of you who like to have a squiz. Those retail traders are just lapping up that NZD aren't they?


SSI: USDJPY Positioning Pulls Back Sharply from Extreme after Rally from 7-month Lows
Monday, 14 September 2009 19:19:40 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

Attachment


Intraday Highlight

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.60 as...
8600 is clear so i load kiwi/dollar long!
seems like lehman coming back from the grave yard, people who park the cash under the pillow now pouring into equities fear of missing out the bulls rally, expect the unexpected its still september folk

i also attack gbp/jpy on 5 minute chart to see what the pound going to do with the dollar, if gbp/usd up then aud/usd will follow.

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...1m_f7cb00e.png

if the gap between gbp/yen and gbp/usd getting bigger and bigger the value of the yen should lower and lower ..... what about aud/yen and aud/usd?
  • #3,569
  • Sep 14, 2009 7:27pm Sep 14, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting ben10
0.8700 - 08500 the range for the week !
i watch closely those level and if she can not penetrate or break 0.8670 i'll attack short for sure!
  • #3,570
  • Sep 14, 2009 7:49pm Sep 14, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting ben10
if the gap between gbp/yen and gbp/usd getting bigger and bigger the value of the yen should lower and lower ..... what about aud/yen and aud/usd?
so here its .... for few days i see the yen's bull run and she drag the aud/yen with her but aud/usd down move not as much as aud/jpy why?
becouse dollar and yen going into action not the aussie! i create good position syntheticly on gbp/usd short and gbp/jpy long but im waiting to short the yen ATM.

now i want to create the same for aud/usd and nzd/usd position

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...8m_94b06e2.png

if my average kiwi long 0.7000 and aussie short at 0.8700, thats will give me aud/nzd short synthetic at 1.2428 .
  • #3,571
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:30pm Sep 14, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting ben10
http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...jm_5a481dd.png

aud/yen : aud/usd = usd/yen

78.50/0.8650=90.75
......./0.8600=91.27
......./0.8550=91.81
......./0.8500=92.35

i make the aud/yen as carry trades position and scalp the aud/usd and usd/yen as the spread is low. i try to make the gap between aud/yen long and aud/usd short bigger so i got the best price for usd/yen long synthetic. then i will shoot the usd/yen on its own from the short side.
if my guesstimate correct and Mr.yen is continue sailing south to 87.00(daily double bottom) 'cos of dollar devaluation then.....

a/j : a/u = usd/jpy
75.50/0.8700=86.78
74.50/0.8750=85.14

wow spooky ! thats going to make the aussie shortie heart pumping fast.
when the yens move is over ..... 100s pips is the prize winner
  • #3,572
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:42pm Sep 14, 2009 8:42pm
as she ranging between 0.8700 - 0.8500 why not milking it too and make that 0.8600 the line in the sand above it short it

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...2m_6d1c858.png
  • #3,573
  • Sep 15, 2009 2:37am Sep 15, 2009 2:37am
seems more like a bullish trend more than anything else....i would rather buy at 8550, 8520 and 8470 than to short
  • #3,574
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:21am Sep 15, 2009 3:21am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting ben10
as she ranging between 0.8700 - 0.8500 why not milking it too and make that 0.8600 the line in the sand above it short it
totally agree .. atleast for this week ... but if it breaks 8500, i think it will go as low as 8400 ...
  • #3,575
  • Sep 15, 2009 3:40am Sep 15, 2009 3:40am
Quoting G_Man
totally agree .. atleast for this week ... but if it breaks 8500, i think it will go as low as 8400 ...
Geeeeeeee, I am getting increasingly tired and frustrated by this flat move. my soldiers are stuck out there.

should I close all the positions or wait a while longer?

what do you reckon guys?
  • #3,576
  • Sep 15, 2009 4:34am Sep 15, 2009 4:34am
Think it will move lower now. Let's see.
just speculating
  • #3,577
  • Sep 15, 2009 5:36am Sep 15, 2009 5:36am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting puks
Geeeeeeee, I am getting increasingly tired and frustrated by this flat move. my soldiers are stuck out there.

should I close all the positions or wait a while longer?

what do you reckon guys?
wait till tonight US open ... and if nothing happens then wait till tomorrow night ... where is Patience? Patience is what you need ... lol

i have got a strong feeling, tonight is your night ... it wont be that exciting but it would be fun enough ... at 10.30 AEST everything gonna be alright ...
  • #3,578
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:02am Sep 15, 2009 6:02am
Quoting G_Man
wait till tonight US open ... and if nothing happens then wait till tomorrow night ... where is Patience? Patience is what you need ... lol

i have got a strong feeling, tonight is your night ... it wont be that exciting but it would be fun enough ... at 10.30 AEST everything gonna be alright ...
I really hope so but here is something strange... AUD/USD didn't go down DESPITE of following bad news for the currency::

1. Retail sales here - worse than expected.
2. Job lost - worse than expected.
3. RBA statement - Less hawkish than expected and no imminent rate rise in 2009.
4. Dow, Gold, Oil all down but AUD is still hovering around .86 mark and find a strong support at .8540-60 area.

So imagine if US retail sales is better than expected, I'll get a huge spike up my backside.

Worse than expected retail sales figures in US will only able to push this down to around .8550.

I really hope that I am proved wrong tonight, yet once again...
  • #3,579
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:45am Sep 15, 2009 6:45am
puks, be patient

market will probably go down more today and tomorrow

I still think 0,8630 - 50 was a good chance to short, and we could see 0,84 - 0,85 this week

gold and oil are helping AUD, but if equities investors will start taking profits this week (and I think they will), AUD will quickly follow
  • #3,580
  • Sep 15, 2009 6:48am Sep 15, 2009 6:48am
I don't like to talk about myself and my positions, but puks I can tell you that I went through losses in almost every trade, and believe me I closed with profit probably more than 90% of them
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