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  • #5,281
  • Sep 14, 2009 7:39am Sep 14, 2009 7:39am
Here is an alternate view, weekly chart
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  • #5,282
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:15am Sep 14, 2009 8:15am
Quoting PistolDave
Hi andy4444,

You may be right in taking the trade, but there is a lot of resistance just below. I'm looking for a long entry.

I'm a learner here and am wrong a lot, but here is my way of seeing the possible setup.

Dave
Quoting zuret9
Hi Dave,

I took the message from the BOSS to the WORKER and this is what i get. I'll hold out a little longer before going long.

Z
One of the excellent aspects of this thread is the way in which it redirects one to charts for a second look.

This chart seems to me to be saying 'wait for PA confirmation' rather loudly.
The Boss is a bull candle from the end of last week, the bear candle is from yesterday continuing today but could easily reverse before the week is over. Big Boss is clearly bullish.

I can see that the SS on the Daily suggests a move down but.....it could be a Bond as the sell candle today is resting on the DSRI at 165600 which is also the 50 Fib from the last SH. Price is also above the 20 and 50 with the 20 crossing the 50 upwards. I will wait to see what happens. Hunches are no use in this game, but mine is for a bounce off the DSRI line towards the 17000 level. The UT from the beginning of the year would be rejoined.

[That would also suit me as I'm off on holiday in a couple of weeks and a stronger Sterling is fine by me! Please note Strat, this is NOT influencing my trading analysis.]
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  • #5,283
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:45am Sep 14, 2009 8:45am
What is really interesting is that no matter what our learning and understanding, we all see things differently, right or wrong.

This, to me, is what makes trading fascinating. This is also what makes trading possible - looking at the same chart with the exact same data, one trader sees a short opportunity while the other sees a long opportunity.

While we all want to be in at the beginning of a move, at the same time we want all the odds on our side and sometimes these two do not go hand in hand.

Many, many pages back I said to "see" the opportunity rather than go looking for it. If the trade is there it will stand out. If you are "looking" for a trade, then the odds are clearly no longer in your favour.

If we go back to our # 1 Rule - CAPITAL PRESERVATION - we will keep our hands on our wallet UNTIL the opportunity presents itself.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,284
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:49am Sep 14, 2009 8:49am
Quoting Lotuselanman
One of the excellent aspects of this thread is the way in which it redirects one to charts for a second look.

This chart seems to me to be saying 'wait for PA confirmation' rather loudly.
The Boss is a bull candle from the end of last week, the bear candle is from yesterday continuing today but could easily reverse before the week is over....
""This chart seems to me to be saying 'wait for PA confirmation' rather loudly"".

Keeping your powder dry is always the best option, Christopher. don't forget to pack the viagra!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,285
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:57am Sep 14, 2009 8:57am
Quoting PistolDave
Hi andy4444,

You may be right in taking the trade, but there is a lot of resistance just below. I'm looking for a long entry.

I'm a learner here and am wrong a lot, but here is my way of seeing the possible setup.

Dave



""I'm a learner here and am wrong a lot"" - so am I, Dave!

Trading reduces us all to learner status. When you get to the point that you think and know it all (walk on water), the Market has a VERY nasty habit of whacking you about the head with a surprise and substantial loss. I don't know how the Market knows, but it does! I guess its just a reminder that the Market is always right and knows best and we are nothing but peons at its mercy.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,286
  • Sep 14, 2009 9:07am Sep 14, 2009 9:07am
Quoting PistolDave
Hi friends,

I wanted to comment on some of the ideas Strat posted on #5201 on Sept. 10.

-----------

It is a little rough on the ego to be corrected, but I would rather have you do it and help us learn than have the market do it by taking money from my account. Let's call it "tough love."



[font=Arial]Agree with that. There is no mercy for anyone. Yes, if you don't get tough your money will soon be transfered from...
Well said, Dave!

There is a guy somewhere on another thread here on FF a year or so ago when the $US was tanking who was so patriotic that he thought selling the $US was a betrayal of patriotism and point blank REFUSED to sell it. He will never make it trading as he is not in it for the right reason.

There is one and ONLY ONE reason to trade - TO MAKE MONEY.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,287
  • Sep 14, 2009 10:02am Sep 14, 2009 10:02am
I hope you all thanked nzdusd for it's GIFT!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,288
  • Sep 14, 2009 10:15am Sep 14, 2009 10:15am
Quoting strat
Keeping your powder dry is always the best option, Christopher. don't forget to pack the viagra!
You mean you haven't bought up the entire world supply?
  • #5,289
  • Sep 14, 2009 11:41am Sep 14, 2009 11:41am
I know the candle has not closed yet. But in the famous words of Dr Joe it keeps going down until it stops.

Daily chart
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  • #5,290
  • Sep 14, 2009 11:50am Sep 14, 2009 11:50am
Quoting elitejets
I know the candle has not closed yet. But in the famous words of Dr Joe it keeps going down until it stops.

Daily chart
Come on, folks, what more could you ask for:

Confirmed downtrend

Downtrend channel

Price at extreme of upper channel limit

Double rejection of price (demand)

DSRI supply broken by demand

BEOB

Now where is that one legged, deaf, dumb and blind old man with asthma?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,291
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:14pm Sep 14, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting elitejets
I know the candle has not closed yet. But in the famous words of Dr Joe it keeps going down until it stops.

Daily chart
Nice chart Nic - not one that I follow I must confess. It seems too distant for me and too 'time-zonal' for me to deal with.

Did we ever come up with a country specific 'ideal' beginner's Forex portfolio?

I've changed the pairs I follow on so many occasions. I want to concentrate on only 12-16 charts - not decided yet. Any one got any good suggestions? I guess trading the daily charts in the UK means it must be best to trade European and US pairs? Or say countries +/- 8 hrs of GMT?

Just thought I put that out there again to see if anyone had given it any more thoughts??
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,292
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:23pm Sep 14, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Nice chart Nic - not one that I follow I must confess. It seems too distant for me and too 'time-zonal' for me to deal with.

Did we ever come up with a country specific 'ideal' beginner's Forex portfolio?

I've changed the pairs I follow on so many occasions. I want to concentrate on only 12-16 charts - not decided yet. Any one got any good suggestions? I guess trading the daily charts in the UK means it must be best to trade European and US pairs? Or say countries +/- 8 hrs of GMT?

Just thought I put that out there again to see if anyone had...
I thought I had done this before but anyway here goes. This is what I recommend for those who are ready to trade using PASR:

EUR/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
EUR/CAD
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY

For those still practicing, find as many charts as possible to practice on. Any instrument will do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,293
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:25pm Sep 14, 2009 12:25pm
Strat, All, Please see attached (PSA)

My thought at the time on kiwi-buck. I note you had a 'confirmation' bar - can you explain why your entry was not at the high of the hammer Strat - were you unsure and awaited confirmation or do you trade a set-up bar then a confirmation bar?

PS Strat - what's with that gaudy yellow chart? Is this a change after your recent visits to China (LOL) or are you going all 'chicken' on us (ie yellow back, spineless LOL)....or have you had 'submerged Beetle's songs' in your dreams???
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,294
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:27pm Sep 14, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Nice chart Nic - not one that I follow I must confess. It seems too distant for me and too 'time-zonal' for me to deal with.

Did we ever come up with a country specific 'ideal' beginner's Forex portfolio?

I've changed the pairs I follow on so many occasions. I want to concentrate on only 12-16 charts - not decided yet. Any one got any good suggestions? I guess trading the daily charts in the UK means it must be best to trade European and US pairs? Or say countries +/- 8 hrs of GMT?

Just thought I put that out there again to see if anyone had...
I look at many more charts each night than I watch through the day and try to find the markets that are trending rather than going sideways.

Here is my opinion (and remember I am often WRONG) of the popular FX pairs and these are the ones I would watch at the moment for opportunities until I see a confirmed reversal of trend:

Uptrend: EURGBP, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY
Downtrend: GBPJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF, USDJPY

Sideways: CADJPY, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURJPY, CHFJPY,
Waiting change confirmation: GBPUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD

That is how I choose what to watch ... and it changes each week.
  • #5,295
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:32pm Sep 14, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting strat
I thought I had done this before but anyway here goes. This is what I recommend for those who are ready to trade using PASR:

EUR/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
EUR/CAD
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY

For those still practicing, find as many charts as possible to practice on. Any instrument will do.

Thanks Master - do you recommend following gold and oil for a $ steer or am I thinking of old 15min dark, dark days??
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,296
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:34pm Sep 14, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Strat, All, Please see attached (PSA)

My thought at the time on kiwi-buck. I note you had a 'confirmation' bar - can you explain why your entry was not at the high of the hammer Strat - were you unsure and awaited confirmation or do you trade a set-up bar then a confirmation bar?

PS Strat - what's with that gaudy yellow chart? Is this a change after your recent visits to China (LOL) or are you going all 'chicken' on us (ie yellow back, spineless LOL)....or have you had 'submerged Beetle's songs' in your dreams???
My personal trade WAS off the Bond hammer but I wanted to demonstrate how, using a confirmation bar, you can lower your RISK. I also wanted to highlight the "GIFT" or ATM and the ease at which you could make money on this pair with this set up.

Just trying to bring some colour to the thread, Danny, to stop it getting boring.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,297
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:37pm Sep 14, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting elitejets
I look at many more charts each night than I watch through the day and try to find the markets that are trending rather than going sideways.

Here is my opinion (and remember I am often WRONG) of the popular FX pairs and these are the ones I would watch at the moment for opportunities until I see a confirmed reversal of trend:

Uptrend: EURGBP, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY
Downtrend: GBPJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF, USDJPY

Sideways: CADJPY, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURJPY, CHFJPY,
Waiting change confirmation: GBPUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD...
Thanks Nic - I guess that is a good way of staying out of sideways markets too. Just look for trending pairs (as your gbpaud shows)

I've been told on many occasions to become a master of one market but I firmly believe this counts more for day traders down in the bowls of the 5/15m TFs.

I only like to scan a few charts after 2200 GMT for 15 mins and only trade the pairs that I have highlighted in my weekly analysis. Sometimes I have missed BASIC setups by flicking thru too many charts too.

I liked Strat's reminder about not 'looking' for trades - the best ones really stand out.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,298
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:37pm Sep 14, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Thanks Master - do you recommend following gold and oil for a $ steer or am I thinking of old 15min dark, dark days??
NO! Just trade what you see on each individual chart. Correlation can turn on a dime and put you in the wrong direction and make you pennyless.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,299
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:40pm Sep 14, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting elitejets
I look at many more charts each night than I watch through the day and try to find the markets that are trending rather than going sideways.

Here is my opinion (and remember I am often WRONG) of the popular FX pairs and these are the ones I would watch at the moment for opportunities until I see a confirmed reversal of trend:

Uptrend: EURGBP, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY
Downtrend: GBPJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF, USDJPY

Sideways: CADJPY, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURJPY, CHFJPY,
Waiting change confirmation: GBPUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD

That is...
Very good point, Nicola.

Watch everything but ONLY trade ACTION!

Do not go looking for action - just trade OPPORTUNITIES!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,300
  • Sep 14, 2009 12:42pm Sep 14, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting strat
.

Just trying to bring some colour to the thread, Danny, to stop it getting boring.
LOL - Boring? Never - more gems here than on that Wikipedia web site thingy and the DeBeers website!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
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