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Ichimoku forever

  • #2,301
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:04am Sep 14, 2009 2:04am
There's a weak bullish signal of the EURGBP... nothing major, but at least a few pips worth, beware there be news ahead!
  • #2,302
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:13am Sep 14, 2009 2:13am
Quoting sinner-
This is definitely not how to trade using Ichimoku and doing so will guaranteed blow your account.

Time for you to go back to page 1 and start reading I think

Hi 4xAddict, hope you are well, someone here mentioned ballooning kumo on high TF as a good oversold/overbought indicator I like that idea very much.
Hey Sinner,

Hope you had a great weekend.

Certainly a valid point on the longer TFs! I like concept of expanding across a few difference indicies as well to test this system's mettle.

How is your EA working out, I've just caught snippets on here.

Is there some way I can help you with your testing? If so let me know, happy to assist although I am no programmer.

Cheers.
  • #2,303
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:16am Sep 14, 2009 2:16am
Quoting sinner-
This is definitely not how to trade using Ichimoku and doing so will guaranteed blow your account.

Time for you to go back to page 1 and start reading I think

Hi 4xAddict, hope you are well, someone here mentioned ballooning kumo on high TF as a good oversold/overbought indicator I like that idea very much.
Went short at 1.6580
Closed at 1.6553
and its already hit 1.6549

And you need to know your attitude wont help anyone here..

Btw.. Thanks DOC
  • #2,304
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:28am Sep 14, 2009 2:28am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hey Sinner,

Hope you had a great weekend.

Certainly a valid point on the longer TFs! I like concept of expanding across a few difference indicies as well to test this system's mettle.

How is your EA working out, I've just caught snippets on here.

Is there some way I can help you with your testing? If so let me know, happy to assist although I am no programmer.

Cheers.
Hey man you too! I spent mine on MetaEditor

I think if we can pick a few different market instruments we may be able to essentially "cover the market" in terms of trades. For example, if we pick one major currency pair, one major index, one major commodity, and gold then we should essentially have all the market fluctuations covered from all angles and hopefully be maximally profitable? I guess my question is more along the lines: is it really worth it to trade multiple Yen crosses at the same time? As vic once said, if we get signal on one we probably get signal on the others before long.

The EA backtests very well on my computer and I am waiting to provide fxScavenger a newer version so he can backtest the last 1.5 years so we can get a good idea of how it fares against all market conditions.

Ideally the goal would be to make an entirely dynamic system which trades Tokyo automatically enters and then trails SL and TP based on the rules. If it works correctly then it should theoretically work across all TF and on all trading instruments across the longest possible backtest for any instrument (since it takes into account whatever the current market conditions are). From then on we only have to worry about the positive or negative expectancy of Ichi on various TF which I am assuming from visual backtesting is highly positive!

You can definitely help with testing the next version

$maker, I've got news for you mate, my attitude or any other part of me will no longer be helping you at all. You asked a question:

Quote
Warriors?
Good this be a good time to enter Short in GbpUsd?

Just checking my knowledge of ichi..

You got an answer you didn't like, and did it anyway. In fact the only reason you could provide for going short is using an indicator that isn't even part of Ichimoku. You said you "just checking your knowledge" but you took a live position based against the people you asked for advice.
  • #2,305
  • Edited 2:58am Sep 14, 2009 2:32am | Edited 2:58am
Hey guys

Im watching just the EJ this week as im having trouble with monitors and already have those charts open.

Could someone critique the following, be as honest as you like. Just hoping i'm reading things correctly.

Daily - Price dropped out of the bottom of the kumo last week after tracing the edge of it. Kumo has a flat bottom and TS is going sideways along it. May see a retrace to the edge of kumo. CSPAN is beneath the curve. TSxKS a few weeks ago. weak bearish trend.

4H - Neutral bearish signal TSxKS in the kumo. CSPAN beneath curve. Price way beneath kumo.

1H - Neutrul bearish signal TSxKS in kumo followed by a strong bearish trend from before the weekend. Kumo expanding so look for a rise in volatility.

M30 - As above however with a TSxKS beneath the kumo confirming a stronger bearish trend. Market is moving upwards, TS and KS look like they cross again confirming the bullish retrace to the bottom of the kumo.

M15 - Price moving strongly inside KUMO, TSxKS, weak bullish signal (as expected on higher TF). CSPAN has moved above the price action confirming bullish retracement.

M5 - Strong bullish movement, CSPAN a long way above price curve. TSxKS within the kumo and expanding quickly, Very thin kumo suggests low volatilty that movement should be questioned.

Conclusion - Wait to see if market retraces to the edge of the kumo on higher timeframes before continuing down. Need TF's to confirm one direction. If this happens on higher TF look for bearish entry on lower TF.
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  • #2,306
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:35am Sep 14, 2009 2:35am
Quoting carsomyr
Hey guys

Im watching just the EJ this week as im having trouble with monitors and already have those charts open.

Could someone critique the following, be as honest as you like. Just hoping i'm reading things correctly.

Daily - Price dropped out of the bottom of the kumo last week after tracing the edge of it. Kumo has a flat bottom and TS is going sideways along it. May see a retrace to the edge of kumo. CSPAN is beneath the curve. TSxKS a few weeks ago. weak bearish trend.

4H - Neutral bearish signal TSxKS in the kumo. CSPAN beneath...
Looks spot on to me try and include a chart next time and mark the spots that confuse you out we will explain them

We are in an intermediary position in the market right now, which is why you are having trouble reading signals properly. Once a trend is established everything will make sense
  • #2,307
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:41am Sep 14, 2009 2:41am
Quoting sinner-
Hey man you too! I spent mine on MetaEditor




You got an answer you didn't like, and did it anyway. In fact the only reason you could provide for going short is using an indicator that isn't even part of Ichimoku. You said you "just checking your knowledge" but you took a live position based against the people you asked for advice.
Exactly.. i did say i was JUST checking my knowledge of Ichimoku.
your answer could have been like what Doc gave.. or even just " you are seeing it wrongly.. dont go short just coz it broke kumo on the 1h "

I traded based on it.. and the fact that it was a 200 day EMA also.. i made the money.. i could have lost it..thats part of the game.

You might be the smartest trader in the world.. and i do respect your understanding of ichimoku.
But we are here to trade and learn from each other. So the attitude needs to be helpful as well.

Cheers
  • #2,308
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:41am Sep 14, 2009 2:41am
We have a cross on EU M5 just now and it agrees with the H4 and Daily tf. I am surprised not to see any mention here.
  • #2,309
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:54am Sep 14, 2009 2:54am
Quoting $maker
Exactly.. i did say i was JUST checking my knowledge of Ichimoku.
your answer could have been like what Doc gave.. or even just " you are seeing it wrongly.. dont go short just coz it broke kumo on the 1h "

I traded based on it.. and the fact that it was a 200 day EMA also.. i made the money.. i could have lost it..thats part of the game.

You might be the smartest trader in the world.. and i do respect your understanding of ichimoku.
But we are here to trade and learn from each other. So the attitude needs to be helpful as well.

Cheers...
Mate doc just tell you that you're gambling and which underwear to wear if you want to step in front of the bus, nothing more. I not reply to you anymore make me too angry.

Chodi, nobody mention EU cross directly but it was a good pick if you traded it (even provide a retrace for reload more longs). I notice somebody above mention EURGBP bull signal so we can extrapolate EUR long from that
  • #2,310
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:57am Sep 14, 2009 2:57am
Quoting Chodi
We have a cross on EU M5 just now and it agrees with the H4 and Daily tf. I am surprised not to see any mention here.
Hi Chodi,
Take a look at the 1 hr, 30 and 15...
Price needs to be trading above the Kumos...
Then we look for a strong 5min...
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #2,311
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:59am Sep 14, 2009 2:59am
Quoting sinner-
Looks spot on to me try and include a chart next time and mark the spots that confuse you out we will explain them

We are in an intermediary position in the market right now, which is why you are having trouble reading signals properly. Once a trend is established everything will make sense
Cheers mate. I have just gone back and edited in all those charts to make checking what im saying a bit easier.
Glad to hear im on the right track.

Theres nothing so much I feel like im struggling with (yet) just wanted to confirm my thoughts.

Many thanks
  • #2,312
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:02am Sep 14, 2009 3:02am
Yes I went long from 4564 on eu as this appeared a full signal that corresponds with the highest tf's. I think that the selloff this morning in eu was a correction and this signal a return to the original trend. We shall see.
  • #2,313
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:07am Sep 14, 2009 3:07am
So, demo this week and 1st trade -50 on the GJ - what did I miss?
I entered on the 5min at crossover A. Stopped out at 150.20.

http://www.sidekicker.net/SB/FX/GJ_ichi.jpg
  • #2,314
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:13am Sep 14, 2009 3:13am
Quoting SanMiguel
So, demo this week and 1st trade -50 on the GJ - what did I miss?
I entered on the 5min at crossover A. Stopped out at 150.20.

http://www.sidekicker.net/SB/FX/GJ_ichi.jpg
Hi there,
Take a look at your Chinkou on the 5 min....
Then take a look at the 15 min.
Ts and Ks are twisted....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 23 KB
Attitude can reflect outcome in life and trading!
  • #2,315
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:16am Sep 14, 2009 3:16am
Hi Everyone,

Watching the G/Y at the moment and we are seeing a really tight range of approx 50 pips - for the past 6.5 hours in fact. Sinner is spot on when he says the market is yet to give us a clear direction!

Doc's call that there looks to be a little EUR/GBP strength showing lends support to the idea that the next leg for the G/Y may be down.

In fact most charts are saying that we are close to a decent sell signal however the 150.00 level will be an important one for us to break in order to safely enter a trade. (Unless you are Samer who has already stolen 50+ this morning!!)

Note that current candle is testing KS resistance on 15min and TS resistance on 30min with 5min showing a good entry signal.

HOWEVER - it's almost clear skies on the 5min as the kumo has basically GONE which is not the most comforting scenario to be entering a trade on.

Watch this one closely however and if you see an entry on a sustained break of 150.00 then there may be a decent run down to weekly KS at 140.42 as a minimum.

There will likely be a short term bounce off the 150.00 level so don't expect an easy trade here, we really need to see some momentum first!

Cheers.
  • #2,316
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:17am Sep 14, 2009 3:17am
Quoting SanMiguel
So, demo this week and 1st trade -50 on the GJ - what did I miss?
I entered on the 5min at crossover A. Stopped out at 150.20.

http://www.sidekicker.net/SB/FX/GJ_ichi.jpg
I would expect entering a trade when the kumo is that thin/non-existent would not be a good idea. On my charts the crossover was also not really beneath the kumo. Am I right?

Lets wait to hear from a warrior who knows what hes talking about
  • #2,317
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:18am Sep 14, 2009 3:18am
Quoting $maker
Went short at 1.6580
Closed at 1.6553
and its already hit 1.6549

And you need to know your attitude wont help anyone here..
$maker , Calm Down mate , this is not the proper way to respond to Sinner's advise, the man was trying to show you what is wrong and what is correct. have you read the whole thread, have you seen the way my replies and advises looked like !!!!!!, if the guys didn't knew that am just trying to help for sure they might killed me by now, Sinner is not a gambler sinner is a real trader and i think missing his advises is missing a big part of knowledge .
i really encourage you to follow his advises am sure he is saying them to ensure you the best and secured trades.
have a nice day
Cheers


p.s. don't miss understand my advise and tell me my attitude is bad
  • #2,318
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:26am Sep 14, 2009 3:26am
Quoting samer960
gj closed half at + 50 pip and move stop loss to break even , ej closed half at + 26 pip and move stop loss to break even , e u closed + 27 pip. = 103 pip .
ragards


even during the thin markets you still have the ability to make your pips .RESPECT Samer my all RESPECT. you are a real hunter

have a nice day mate
cheers
  • #2,319
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:36am Sep 14, 2009 3:36am
Quoting SanMiguel
So, demo this week and 1st trade -50 on the GJ - what did I miss?
I entered on the 5min at crossover A. Stopped out at 150.20.

http://www.sidekicker.net/SB/FX/GJ_ichi.jpg
Hi SanMiguel,

Krmo is correct here and you should also note that the kumo on the 5min is almost gone it's so thin.

I never like to enter a trade on the 5min signal when the kumo is so thin as it has at least 2 undesirable effects.

1. Kumo thickness suggests the current level of market sentiment and also the volatility in the market (generalisation however it is fine for this example). When there is no substance to the kumo it tends to suggest that the market is unsure how to proceed and for this reason can be prone to fast changes in direction that are not necessarily in line with the normal ichimoku rules.

2. When it is so thin there is not a sufficient range between your entry point and SL to allow the market room to move. For instance not long after your trade there was an announcement that UK bank loans increased this month 24% which has seen a short little bump up in the market however this data is hardly enough to fire the GBP skywards.

On a pair like this which is quite volatile compared to others you do need to have a relatively wide SL (normally 40-50pips minimum) - this is because most moves on this pair are substantially larger than this number so your risk reward ratio can still be really great with a 50pip SL.

If you are ever looking to enter this pair and your normal SL location is under 50pips from the price action, just double check everything closely. I do this and it has saved me some unnecessary losses a few times.

Cheers.
  • #2,320
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:58am Sep 14, 2009 3:58am
Hi Everyone,

I have mentioned the research of Joel Kruger over at Dailyfx.com a few times because I strongly respect his opinion.

While I don't trade with the contrarian/swing style patterns that he uses, mentally as a trader he always 110% researches and thinks through all of his trades.

I just received this little reminder from him about trading psychology and it's dead on the money.

Enjoy.

"AVOID THE SPLIT PERSONALITY

It is critical to know exactly what type of trader you are before establishing a position. If you commit to a shorter-term trading idea, then it needs to be a short-term trading idea with a defined exit strategy. If however you commit to a longer-term idea, then your stop-loss and take profit need to be appropriately adjusted. One of the biggest problems we see is traders that commit to a short-term trading idea, and refuse to exit once their mental stop-loss is hit. At that point, it becomes a longer-term trade that was never intended for at the start. How many times have we heard “I got in at X price and it is against me but I am not worried because this is a longer-term position.” If you find yourself saying this or if you hear this, you absolutely should WORRY. This is a classic sign of a trader that does not know how to walk away from a losing position, which ultimately will lead to their demise. One of our favorite trading sayings is “All A Long-Term Trade Is…..Is A Short-Term Trade Gone Bad.”

Similarly, those with longer-term ideas, should not be quick to book profits on a winning trade. This will skew trading results and produce an undesirable performance outcome. At the end of the day, the lesson is to avoid the split personality and stick to your initial plan of attack. "

A great example of sticking with your rules was Vic's U/J trade from last week. While others like myself took short term positions and made money a couple of times (102pips total for me) Vic stated from the start that he was going longer term on the 4hr time frame. At different points others were asking him why he wasn't cutting and running however his reply was simple. It is a longer term trade. Sure enough he closes out before the weekend (good risk management) up 176pips!

Always decide on a set plan before your trade and NEVER change it mid trade because things aren't looking so great. I think everyone has done it before - I certainly have and I can say that I don't remember on short trade that I decided to hold for the "longer term" ever making me money.

Cheers!
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