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AUD/USD

  • #3,501
  • Sep 13, 2009 3:46am Sep 13, 2009 3:46am
Quoting cvarnado
Who is trading in here!
i'm a trader in the above quoted pair of currency,but unfortunately the market turned agianst me.is there any hope of recovery from united state economy?
  • #3,502
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:44am Sep 13, 2009 5:44am
When you argue about currency and monetary policy, there are always two sides to the story, at least. In a nutshell, if US continues to allow the depreciation of the currency without any rel demand, driving inflation solely on a debasing of the currency, we are talking about stagflation. No growth, higher prices...and basically a japan scenario. The difference between US and Japan, however, is the broad basis of the US economy versus Japan's high dependence on the use of foreign resources both materially and in labor aspects. The US can't afford to basically allow the end of production within our own borders and must support the currency. A failure to do so woud make Japan's lost decade seem like a bad weekend. In a stagflation invironment the US would likely fall into a funk that would last until the country would need to be reborn. All the wealth would flee the country (if it hasn't already) and the land of the free and the home of the brave would have a most uncertain future.

Bernanke has said so himself, that, if the pricing pressures continue purely on speculation of inflation he'll be forced to act. I believe it's because of the gloomy scenario I projected above.

Good luck, and USA better start protecting the USD.
  • #3,503
  • Sep 13, 2009 2:14pm Sep 13, 2009 2:14pm
Thanks for the detail Patience. It's entirely possible the AUD will grind higher in the near future..............there are many pundits talking up 89-90 levels but I am not convinced as yet, hence my modest short bias. The traditionalist in me would still like to see a thorough test of the 85 level before I would consider establishing another long-term LONG position. 8hr chart attached.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #3,504
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:41pm Sep 13, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting Kristo
Patience I am interested in your thoughts on the reduced weekly range of 160 odd pips. Do you interpret this as a slowing of upside momentum?
thats interesting question Kristo ! i ask my self the same as i see it slowing down pips movement indicates distributions either the bears or the bulls reduce or add to positions "square" ! if the bulls momentum since march were to continue then 0.9000 is likely on the table, however she must pass or clearly break above 0.8700(weekly support and resistance IMO).

0.8700 - 08500 the range for the week !
  • #3,505
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:03pm Sep 13, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
When you argue about currency and monetary policy, there are always two sides to the story, at least. In a nutshell, if US continues to allow the depreciation of the currency without any rel demand, driving inflation solely on a debasing of the currency, we are talking about stagflation. No growth, higher prices...and basically a japan scenario. The difference between US and Japan, however, is the broad basis of the US economy versus Japan's high dependence on the use of foreign resources both materially and in labor aspects. The US can't afford...
excellent assesment on the fundamental front buddy, appreciated that and i see from the technical aspect of it as the bulls yen strenght from april already hit the fourth leg down , could it create another three leg down? well i doubt it as the 90.00 provide very good support but im prepare at 87.00 to attack from the long side.

as the gap between aud/jpy long(carry trades) and aud/usd short(speculative positions) getting bigger and bigger so the value of usd/yen will lower and lower(down move).

how low can(usd devalued their currency) she go?
  • #3,506
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:19pm Sep 13, 2009 5:19pm
i fcuk this sh1t now how bout that!! the spread 1.8 pips

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...hm_3a20b44.png
  • #3,507
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:20pm Sep 13, 2009 5:20pm
8600 broken?
  • #3,508
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:23pm Sep 13, 2009 5:23pm
you may not see and feel but right now lemmetellya im shaking and my heart pumping !!! my size is unusual big should close within sseconds
  • #3,509
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:26pm Sep 13, 2009 5:26pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
what a start of the week ... loving it ... it was risky ... but now im back in control ...

AUD 8664 - 8590
NZD 70.71 - 7015
  • #3,510
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:27pm Sep 13, 2009 5:27pm
the yen ,the pound also down! if you jump now(swcalp) was too late

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...rm_5d40b68.png
  • #3,511
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:28pm Sep 13, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting G_Man
what a start of the week ... loving it ... it was risky ... but now im back in control ...

AUD 8664 - 8590
NZD 70.71 - 7015

good to hear from you mate , from last week i say to my self i want this break below 8600
  • #3,512
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm
I am glad to see this is taking a breather. Looking out for0.8535
The Sky is the Limit!
  • #3,513
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm
close some and move stops protect the gain , hopefully can ride this
  • #3,514
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm Sep 13, 2009 5:32pm
Au equities opened weaker at present the S/p ASX 200 down 27.80 @4568.30 and gold has dipped to 1005.30
  • #3,515
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:33pm Sep 13, 2009 5:33pm
oh sh1t this is good 8550 should break?
  • #3,516
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:43pm Sep 13, 2009 5:43pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting ahlamo
I am glad to see this is taking a breather. Looking out for0.8535
hey guys ... just be careful ... gold price is still up there ...

close some while its down ...

i am still shorting ... still got 6 players ...
  • #3,517
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:45pm Sep 13, 2009 5:45pm
move above 8580 on 1 minute chart scalp position should close immedeatly!
  • #3,518
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:48pm Sep 13, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting G_Man
hey guys ... just be careful ... gold price is still up there ...

close some while its down ...

i am still shorting ... still got 6 players ...
thats what Kristo try to trade i think, can gold buyers hold that high price? if yes out the short , if no add more short
  • #3,519
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:52pm Sep 13, 2009 5:52pm
ok my first target hit 8572 so move my stops further, now the second target is 0.8507 , dont ask me how i get this target its just the way i trades you may had different measure and target
  • #3,520
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:54pm Sep 13, 2009 5:54pm
Quoting G_Man
hey guys ... just be careful ... gold price is still up there ...

close some while its down ...

i am still shorting ... still got 6 players ...
I am expecting this to break below .8550 by EU and break below .8500 by the time NY opens.

4 players out there battered and bruised. Considering Asian session is usually quiet for the past 2 weeks, i am expecting this downward trend to continue beyond .8500 to test .8460.

Cheers
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