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  • #5,261
  • Sep 11, 2009 10:06pm Sep 11, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting zuret9
.....for a good while? Is that a few minutes? lol

Z

ha ha try 7 months
  • #5,262
  • Sep 11, 2009 11:12pm Sep 11, 2009 11:12pm
This caught my eye. There is a massive test looming about 100 below here. Daily DSRI and the 20MA were broken at the same time.

Strat, Sign that boy on the dotted line...............................................

Do you know Andrew?


Roy
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Polishing my crystal ball
  • #5,263
  • Sep 12, 2009 1:25am Sep 12, 2009 1:25am
Quoting strat
Jideck, rather than repeat over and over what has already been posted, keep reading the posts as there are some excellent posts on identifying and constructing S&R levels. If after, reading all the posts, you are still confused, then ask again.
Hi Strat

No problem. If it seems to you that I am trying "to run ahead of the carriage" Its OK to rein me in, just too eager to move ahead.

A question, should we be posting our analysis of the possible trades, being so early in our learning stage?

Many thanks
Jideck
  • #5,264
  • Sep 12, 2009 3:31am Sep 12, 2009 3:31am
Quoting 30XTCi
This caught my eye. There is a massive test looming about 100 below here. Daily DSRI and the 20MA were broken at the same time.

Roy
Hi Roy,

It seems we are going down the way we went up.

Z
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  • #5,265
  • Edited Sep 13, 2009 7:12pm Sep 12, 2009 12:47pm | Edited Sep 13, 2009 7:12pm
be sure to watch these levels....nice chart Z

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  • #5,266
  • Sep 12, 2009 8:24pm Sep 12, 2009 8:24pm
What do you think about going long on this currency pair?

It looks like the AUD broke through the Boss's DSRI the week of June 21st, and through major resistance at 82493, which looks like a trend reversal.

On the worker it broker through 0.8440 which look liked a point of major resistance.

If I way off base on my analysis please let me know, this is my second week and first attempt at analyzing a chart
  • #5,267
  • Sep 13, 2009 3:04am Sep 13, 2009 3:04am
Hello Pipfx,

it seems to me that the train already left the station for aud/usd, meaning that I cannot see price action to trade on the worker. Maybe a retest of level 0.8500 level could give us the chance to go long all the way to 0.8800.

I cannot see the trendline broken on the boss on 21 June.

Ramon



Quoting pipfx
What do you think about going long on this currency pair?

It looks like the AUD broke through the Boss's DSRI the week of June 21st, and through major resistance at 82493, which looks like a trend reversal.

On the worker it broker through 0.8440 which look liked a point of major resistance.

If I way off base on my analysis please let me know, this is my second week and first attempt at analyzing a chart
  • #5,268
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:27am Sep 13, 2009 11:27am
Hi all,

Thanks Strat and all contributors for this fantastic thread.

I wanted to introduce myself and not just lurk, I'm currently working my way through all the posts and recommended material, currently about 50% through.

I'll start with my horror story first and in future posts just focus on analysis as taught throughout the forum.

My Horror Story
______________

I started trading about two years ago....initial trades went well in a classic case of beginners luck, I also had all the advantage of being at the center of the news with my job and so had some good fortune in platinum when South Africa ran out of coal. But it all went to my head, I started over trading and I gave most of my profits back to the market...at the time I really had no clue what was going wrong and decided to just take a break. Looking back at my initial trading experience I would say I had no method (perhaps just fundamental analysis which I overkill), no trading plan and so it would be better to refer to it all as gambling.

Early this year I started again, funded up an account and again had some great initial success trading a mix of FX, Commodities and Stocks. Again I had no real method but at least had some money management. The success again went to my head, I became fanatical about watching the markets having screens up at work, watching the price on my iphone on the way home and staying up all night watching prices on multiple markets roll around...I was truly in hell and then just seemed to self destruct...I started over trading and putting crazy positions on at all hours...eventually I blew my profits again and 50% of my starting balance and quit in disgust at myself...however I was happy, calm and normal again.

I took about a one month break and then went out to seek the holy grail, I bumped into the forex EA world and again had some great initial success. However then I started manually trading again, initially just in small size and with some self control...but then I bumped into Elliott Wave Theory, subscribed to the newsletter and became convinced that my (their) views were correct...this triggered another self destruction button and I blew through all my EA profits and started again hurting my account equity.

So here I am now, I have started to keep a daily trading journal, I have removed all my trading software from work so I cannot manually trade any time frame below daily and I am committing myself to the path of learning. My charts are now naked, I will look at the mirror for my grail, study Strat's need to know and my major focus is on my psychology where I am taking a number of initiatives.

I am probably still drowning in the sea of forex but hopefully I have spotted my life raft...
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #5,269
  • Sep 13, 2009 12:14pm Sep 13, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strat

No problem. If it seems to you that I am trying "to run ahead of the carriage" Its OK to rein me in, just too eager to move ahead.

A question, should we be posting our analysis of the possible trades, being so early in our learning stage?

Many thanks
Jideck
Jideck, make sure you read and understand everything first, then just watch the posts to get the "feel" of what we're doing. When everything "clicks" in to place then join in. But do not do anything until you fully understand PASR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,270
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:28pm Sep 13, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting strat
Jideck, make sure you read and understand everything first, then just watch the posts to get the "feel" of what we're doing. When everything "clicks" in to place then join in. But do not do anything until you fully understand PASR.
Thanks Strat, will do.
Regards
Jideck and Wife
  • #5,271
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:12pm Sep 13, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting Sinan
Hi all,

Thanks Strat and all contributors for this fantastic thread.

I wanted to introduce myself and not just lurk, I'm currently working my way through all the posts and recommended material, currently about 50% through.

I'll start with my horror story first and in future posts just focus on analysis as taught throughout the forum.

My Horror Story
______________

I started trading about two years ago....initial trades went well in a classic case of beginners luck, I also had all the advantage of being at the center of the news with my job...
Thanks for the story. You may have only found some driftwood right now but if you go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning and read and UNDERSTAND, you will surely find the lifeboat and after that, the cruise ship.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,272
  • Edited Sep 14, 2009 5:35pm Sep 13, 2009 6:32pm | Edited Sep 14, 2009 5:35pm
Hey Alexandra, looks like my "short" love affair with USDJPY will soon be over - waiting to see how my Sunday bar pans out. Then I may have to join your "long" camp!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,273
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:04pm Sep 13, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting strat
Hey Alexander, looks like my "short" love affair with USDJPY will soon be over - waiting to see how my Sunday bar pans out. Then I may have to join your "long" camp!
Can you elaborate on your reasoning Strat? You're not sharing the crystal ball with Alexandra again, are you?

All of our charts (Big Boss, Boss, and worker) are bearish at the moment.

The only things I see that may be going for a long is:

1. We are approaching support (89.9 on my charts).
2. Rubber Band theory (20 EMA is pretty far away at the moment).
3. A risk down to 89.9 or slightly below is relatively low % risk.

Do you see something that I have not mentioned?
  • #5,274
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:12pm Sep 13, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting strat
Hey Alexander, looks like my "short" love affair with USDJPY will soon be over - waiting to see how my Sunday bar pans out. Then I may have to join your "long" camp!
I never knew you were so fickle Strat ...
I'm going to try and hold on for 87-ish

----------------
A funnymental aside from "Across the curve" suggesting the USD is the new carry trade ...
Why is Usd/Jpy so heavy?
* In the last three weeks, Usd/Jpy and risk correlation has broken down. UsdJpy typically trades w/a 60/70% correlation w/equities, but in the last three weeks the correlation has broken down, now only 30% correlated.
* One explanation for the correlation breakdown is that 3mth USD LIBOR is now LOWER 3mth JPY LIBOR. This spread turned negative about three weeks ago, and in the same timeframe, Usd/Jpy has also fallen 2.9%.
Bottom line, the USD is soon becoming the new global funding currency, taking over JPY’s role.
* XXXYYYZZZ JPY strategist Tomoko Fujii also points out that the current political transition might mean that there is no firm JPY policy decision making process in place yet. That said, the mkt generally thinks authories may intervene around 87.10 level.
* Investment flows have also been JPY supportive. Japanese repatriation and foreign investment inflows into Japan has picked up since DPJ victory. Also, into fiscal half-year end, Japanese institutional investors investors tend to slow new investments abroad and Japanese corporate repatration may pick up.
* Barriers pick up at 88 and below for the 1-3mth tenors.
-------------
  • #5,275
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:48pm Sep 13, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting One14
Can you elaborate on your reasoning Strat? You're not sharing the crystal ball with Alexandra again, are you?

All of our charts (Big Boss, Boss, and worker) are bearish at the moment.

The only things I see that may be going for a long is:

1. We are approaching support (89.9 on my charts).
2. Rubber Band theory (20 EMA is pretty far away at the moment).
3. A risk down to 89.9 or slightly below is relatively low % risk.

Do you see something that I have not mentioned?
I didn't say I WAS going long - yet - I'm waiting to see how PRICE reacts at this support (PASR).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,276
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:51pm Sep 13, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting elitejets
I never knew you were so fickle Strat ...
I'm going to try and hold on for 87-ish

----------------
A funnymental aside from "Across the curve" suggesting the USD is the new carry trade ...
Why is Usd/Jpy so heavy?
* In the last three weeks, Usd/Jpy and risk correlation has broken down. UsdJpy typically trades w/a 60/70% correlation w/equities, but in the last three weeks the correlation has broken down, now only 30% correlated.
* One explanation for the correlation breakdown is that 3mth USD LIBOR is now LOWER 3mth JPY LIBOR. This spread turned...
Sorry, I''ll try to be more discrete!

87 seems to be pushing the envelope but I don't really have a clue - I'll just go with what she gives me (the market, not Alexandra!).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,277
  • Sep 13, 2009 10:27pm Sep 13, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting strat
I had another really good laugh last night.

As you know, Naws has stepped up (thank you, Naws), and taken on the role of Administrator to the thread now that rogueforex has exited stage left. In doing so, he is updating the Index and amongst other things, the membership of those on The Path of Learning. He sent out a mass mailing to the membership asking if they were still active etc., and last night, sent me the responses received to date.

One of these responses was the cause of my laughter.......
Hi friends,

I wanted to comment on some of the ideas Strat posted on #5201 on Sept. 10.

-----------

Quote
Everything I say and do on here, MY THREAD, is calculated and for a reason. My “slap ‘em in the face, kick ‘em in the balls” style when you do wrong is for a reason. I have been admonished by Tiaforex many times on J16 for this style and I thank him (her) sincerely for this compliment.
It is a little rough on the ego to be corrected, but I would rather have you do it and help us learn than have the market do it by taking money from my account. Let's call it "tough love."



Quote
Trading, and in particular, futures and forex, is, mentally and psychologically, one of the hardest and toughest arenas to participate in. It makes trading stocks look like kindergarten games. If you are not mentally and psychologically tough and strong, then, no matter how good your technical skills are, you will NEVER, EVER, make it.
Agree with that. There is no mercy for anyone. Yes, if you don't get tough your money will soon be transfered from your account into the account of the more skilled and tougher traders.



Quote
I have said it many times, to be successful in trading is 95% trading psychology and 5% technical skills. The trading psychology books and “know it alls” tell you about controlling your emotions – specifically greed and fear. How many tell you about being mentally and psychologically tough and strong? This thread goes the extra step – you either mentally toughen up and strengthen on here, or you run as fast as you can to a “nicey picey, ass lickin’” thread where there is no heat.
I haven't read much about mental toughness in trading. Everyone seems to want to avoid the subject that in trading, for you to make money someone else has to lose. You have to be tough to deal with that. Maybe it's not politically correct. Maybe it wouldn't sell so many books and courses. Who knows. It would be great if everyone could be nice and friendly in this business, but that's not reality. There is only two options, either get tough or get out. Actually that is an issue that a person should confront early on in trading. Can you deal with the fact that in order to make money trading you will be taking money from someone else's account and putting it into yours by your trading ability? If you have a problem with that then you will be sabatoging yourself all along the way.

Personally, I appreciate what you are doing to help us. I'm learning more here about real trading than I have anywhere until now. Keep going Strat!
  • #5,278
  • Sep 14, 2009 1:44am Sep 14, 2009 1:44am
I entered short at open of right eye on the pin on the worker this morning which had touched a level defined several times by the boss. (1,6739ish)
(I wish I would have just sold it with a short stop at the pre-drawn level, but I didn't)
The entry coincides with head and shoulder on the boss-chart and september is historically a down month for cable.

Thank you again for your learnings Strat!
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  • #5,279
  • Sep 14, 2009 8:48am Sep 14, 2009 8:48am
Hi andy4444,

You may be right in taking the trade, but there is a lot of resistance just below. I'm looking for a long entry.

I'm a learner here and am wrong a lot, but here is my way of seeing the possible setup.

Dave


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  • #5,280
  • Sep 14, 2009 9:08am Sep 14, 2009 9:08am
Quoting PistolDave
Hi andy4444,

You may be right in taking the trade, but there is a lot of resistance just below. I'm looking for a long entry.

I'm a learner here and am wrong a lot, but here is my way of seeing the possible setup.

Dave


Attachment

Hi Dave,

I took the message from the BOSS to the WORKER and this is what i get. I'll hold out a little longer before going long.

Z
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