AUD/USD

i am sweating too... For a move even lower.. I dont know

move all yen stops , protect the gain and ride! now i can make coffee

if 90.46 couldnot pass i'll close it and reenter when she break above it.

ok back to the aussie she also falling below 8650 awesome

yens stop taken , not to worry about it any more back to almighty aussie

Same here... i had been counting on a usd bounce also....with the feds easing off intervention, i had hopes of at least a 500 pips move down of the 1800pips or so move down like end of sept last year.... even though, that was in the heights of the financial crisis and things are different now

this is unreal ! 7 green heikin ashi candles on daily chart now stop and reverse , i expect minimum 3 candles down next week.

Puks ...where are you buddy ?seems like we see the light but i would like to see 8600 penetrated first

all the aussie trades thats show some pip/s gain protect them, just incase she is going ballistic and move back up

On the daily, it appears yesterday's candle looks like a hanging man, which would be a reversal signal. However, i am really in doubt technicals matter anymore this week. The way the Dollar got beaten is still a big mystery for me. I mean i understand why it could be but not why it is at this level of intensity. INSANE!!! I really hope we'll see some retracting back down next week...although i', starting to doubt it will be any time soon.

sh1t she move up again better closed some

i just hope it closed below the 8600 thats all

Word!!!!!! that's my hope too

have a great weekend folk !

I really does look look like a reversal is starting, but we need a nice red candle for confirmation... as of now, it's consolidating and could break out to the topside again... I'm banking on it going lower, I like to get in early (catch tops and bottoms) and not wait for confirmation... way more risky and not the smartest way to trade, but you can get much bigger profits and if you cut your losses early (which I didn't this time) it can be a great strategy.

Insane indeed!!!!...... I would love to hear your views on Why the dollar is`so intensely beaten? I believe a rise from the ashes is in the making though....

Hi Guys and Ladies

I posted this on the EUR thread but I don't know if any of you follow it so I thought I would post it over here as well cos you know this is one of my favourite threads.

Well, I've been out of action and not near a computer and I am surprised to see that the EUR is basically where it was about 36 hours ago. Considering the significance of the day/date I thought more action would have prevailed but not so. The market never ceases to surprise me

USDX Daily

You can see PA hung around this area last year for a few days in August 2008 and then again in September 2008 before going north. Maybe we are going to consolidate around this area for a few days before the next leg south - ha, ha - that's my bias talking again

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252695808

USDX 1 Hour

What I find surprising the most is that PA found it really difficult to break above my 34 EMA on the 1 hour chart all week!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252695808


And for those of you who like the Sentiment Index, here we are:

SSI: Retail Traders are Looking for a Reversal from the dollar after a Round of New Lows
Friday, 11 September 2009 17:34:04 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252696002

Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.33 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.90 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.8% higher than yesterday and 9.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.4% lower than yesterday and 41.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.


And I know it's a bit late and I haven't even read it myself yet, but here's Bank of Scotland's Daily Market Strategy. Not sure if it will be of any use now.

BOSDailyMarketStrategy-11thSeptember2009.pdf

Good trades and fab weekend to all

.

Do I see red in the daily closing candle ( almost doji looking)?! Have a great week end everyone!

My weekly chart has closed bullish, which could indicate further upside however the momentum is not convincing me as yet. I have attached a monthly GOLD chart as I believe GOLD is the main AUD upward driver at this point. Notice a new high of 1011.75 was reached this week and price is closing in on the March '08 high of 1032.20. Regardless of the longer term AUD direction which will eventually revealed for all to see, I expect some volatility as a result of the GOLD price movement. My longer term bias remains short on the AUD and I will continue to sell into spikes and strength and am happy to hold longer term drawdown if further upside prevails. Shorter term traders may consider keeping their powder dry by waiting for more traditional reversal patterns.

Patience I am interested in your thoughts on the reduced weekly range of 160 odd pips. Do you interpret this as a slowing of upside momentum?

Hi Kristo

I'm just trying to quickly do some weekend analysis at the moment. My bro arrived on Thursday morning for his first visit in 17 years - lol - so I haven't been able to catch up with much at the moment and the house we are staying in at the moment (because it has more room) doesn't have a landline and I'm not set up for all that mobile broadband stuff (I'm so behind the times )

My first thoughts were a slowing of momentum but if we take this week's range in the context of the monthly range we can see that the monthly range has, so far, been 436 pips, which is a healthy range for only two weeks' of trading. The range for just two weeks has been larger than the range for all of August. I hope you understand what I am trying to say here. It's very late.



And for G Man, who was questioning why I was working on only 15 weeks of data, here is the weekly range for all of 2009. As I said in a previous post, I was working on the 15 weeks of data because it was when we started consolidating from the big run-up from 63.

I have highlighted in yellow the weeks where we have done a range of under 200 pips. Taking this data, the average weekly range is actually higher than the 15 weeks I was working from. The average weekly range here is 311 pips. From the 15 weeks I was working from and adding this week's range, the weekly range is now is now 279 pips.



On the daily we appear to have a "High Wave" candle which indicates indecision and may signal a reversal with medium reliability but confirmation of this candle is required. To read further about this candle please see this website http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs12.asp.

I'm going to have a look at my USDX and other charts (EUR etc) and have a read up about things and if I come across anything of interest, I'll be sure to post it. I'm going to see if I have enough time to delve a little more into the interest shown in US Treasuries this week. I'm not sure about all this "indirect" interest shown. I'm no expert on this stuff but "indirect" interest is "Customers placing competitive bids through a direct submitter, including Foreign and International Monetary Authorities placing bids through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York".

It's just that I read something earlier this week that said "Then there is even some speculation that excess dollars created by the Federal Reserve in swap transactions could perhaps be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasuries to provide liquidity for the U.S. government". The link to read more is http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=205. I'm also not clever enough to separate the wheat from the chaff when reading stuff but I always like a bit of conspiracy

Just as an aside, FXCM's Sentiment Index is looking more the way I would prefer it to look e.g. retail traders trying to fade the moves across all USD based pairs. I'm going to be keeping a keen eye on this because as soon as I see retail traders starting to jump on the other bandwagon i.e. starting to short the USD, I think I'll be starting to look the other way.

Cor, have I raved on or what!

[EDIT] I forgot to say that I can't argue with the weekly or monthly candles at this stage either. Because of Friday's candle, at this stage, I'm thinking that maybe the AUD might like to take one of it's Monday baths and cleanse itself of a few longs before resuming the trend. I can't really see the trend reversing that much at the moment though unless the stock indices decide to belly flop and given that September is a strong month for gold. I'm going to have to get that mobile broadband thing in place because I don't want to miss whatever is going to happen.

Here are last week's results. Pretty decent.

And the second chart are levels for this week.

Good trading everyone!