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  • #5,221
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:26pm Sep 10, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting dre3029
this is probably stupid but, where is "The path of learning?" Is it this thread because I can't find the title anywhere.
No, not stupid at all, in fact a very good observation.

I started the thread to help other traders and was quickly inundated with newbies/rookies/learners/curious/inquistives wanting to know how to trade from Step 1.

As a result, the thread evolved into The Path of Learning.

So yes, the thread is it, you are on it but you have to start at the beginning and work your way through it in chronological order to UNDERSTAND.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,222
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:32pm Sep 10, 2009 4:32pm
ok, thanks!
  • #5,223
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:33pm Sep 10, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Aston, I see you are back? You been on summer hols?

Can't say that I have read her stuff? I'm under 'orders' currently not to read any more books/papers/news etc as I keep complicating things with 'thinking' I know what will happen next or why an event just happened. I'm trying to just accept PA alone and not seek reasons for it (as Strat pointed out with Eurusd)

So, for now, I'll pass thanks; but I will look it up in the future - maybe!
Danny boy - DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,224
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:46pm Sep 10, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting strat
Danny boy - DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE
Thanks Strat. You'd think it would be dead easy with my background??!! (Discipline that is)
Hence why I passed on AD's reading offer.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,225
  • Sep 10, 2009 4:55pm Sep 10, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting AstonDan
Nope i don't think you've missed anything Strat, but she writes about stops and how they can lead to price 'cascades', which i thought was relevant to GW's observation regarding Shooting Stars often breaking with more momentum than Hammers, that's all
""GW's observation regarding Shooting Stars often breaking with more momentum than Hammers,""

I didn't read that into it, Dan, so thanks for bringing it up, which leads me into:

Remember, the Markets obey The Laws of Nature (Physics). Simply put, what goes up MUST come down. Whether you believe it or not, the Markets are governed by the same Earth's gravitational pull as we are. This means price will always fall faster (and harder) than it climbs.

Think of PRICE as a concrete ball being rolled up a hill. It takes a lot of energy (buyers) to get it moving but once its moving (momentum), it takes less energy (buyers) to keep it moving. The steeper the hill, the longer the hill, the more energy (buyers) is required. Sometimes the energy is weakened by outside forces (sellers), and the ball slips a little back down the hill but usually, energy (buyers) recovers and gets the ball moving up again.

On the hill, there are plateaus where energy (buyers) are given a chance to rest and recover. After the rest and energy is replenished, the ball is pushed back up the hill until it reaches either the pinnacle or a large plateau.

If it reaches the pinnacle and goes over the top, it requires very little effort (sellers) to get to the first plateau where it takes a rest and falls over the edge to the bottom.

If it reaches a large plateau, a little energy is still left pushing it until eventually it gets to the edge of the plateau and then it falls and so on.

A simple analogy for a simple mechanism!

If you don't believe me, get out your trusty charts and observe how there are less bars going short to cover the same amount of pips as going long.

For example, look at the USDCHF chart I used in the STRAT TEST.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,226
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:20pm Sep 10, 2009 5:20pm
Hello
AS we can see we have nice BEOB on EURGBP. As Im still short since 2.9 when we had BEEB. Would you say it is wise to add other position? I risk just 1% per trade with this method but I have running other 6 trades on daily and weekly scale. How many active trades do you usually have? Do you watch for correlation among these trades to avoid higher risk?

We saw that Strat gained some pips on EURUSD bull run. As I didnt see any particular PA pattern I was out of the market. However today we can see similiar bull run on NZDUSD. I would say it is even better as we got BUOB. Im not sure if this kind of bars are safe to play as a trend continuation, or brakeout patterns (my backtest didnt show spectacular results), or maybe Strat's EURUSD style. So would you say it is valid long signal on NZDUSD?

Thank you
alter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd1.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #5,227
  • Sep 10, 2009 5:59pm Sep 10, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting alter
Hello
AS we can see we have nice BEOB on EURGBP. As Im still short since 2.9 when we had BEEB. Would you say it is wise to add other position? I risk just...
If you only risk 1% on each trade and you have a total of 7 trades running, that means you have a total of 7% of your account committed. This is already too much for conservative trading. I do not recommend anyone, at this stage, commit more than a total of 5% at any one time. At this point in your trading, correlated trades should be avoided at all costs.

With regard to NZDUSD, it is already too late as the break out above existing highs was on 9/7/09. Furthermore, this technique is not being taught at this stage and should be ignored. Just concentrate on shooting stars, hammers, BUOBS, BEOBS, BUEBS and BEEBS.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,228
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:30pm Sep 10, 2009 7:30pm
hey guys....

my first two trades of september and probably my last two trades of september..

i dont ussually take two trades at the same time so i had to adjust my position sizing...
i have already exited both with a profit...if i can do this anyone can guys..

charts are of gold and usd/cad.. a day or two back

http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q...sdcad-sep8.gif
http://i432.photobucket.com/albums/q.../gold-sep8.gif
  • #5,229
  • Sep 10, 2009 8:37pm Sep 10, 2009 8:37pm
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed, the 1.04 is holding for the moment and perhaps worth a stab for those who like the quick trade. The long term charts, however, would need a lot more work to make that bear trap a reality.

I'm more interested at the moment in the USDJPY's hold of 92. That has my interest long term.
Looks like 92 is history. Or is it?
  • #5,230
  • Sep 10, 2009 8:55pm Sep 10, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting strat
I had another really good laugh last night.

As you know, Naws has stepped up (thank you, Naws), and taken on the role of Administrator to the thread now that rogueforex has exited stage left. In doing so, he is updating the Index and amongst other things, the membership of those on The Path of Learning. He sent out a mass mailing to the membership asking if they were still active etc., and last night, sent me the responses received to date.
Nice post! ...and thanks for being a "Protector". Coming from a slightly newer generation (somewhere between street gangs and drug gangs) and a tough city I also had to fight to survive and I appreciate guys like you. I can't claim that I was a big "fighter"...more of a tough bastard. I would never give in to those older punks.
  • #5,231
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:36pm Sep 10, 2009 11:36pm
Strat

I am the " sensitive " lad from OZ who has just finished his milk and got a new nappy attached! Reality is that i am originally from Belfast where i grew up during the sixties into the " Troubles " of the 70,s so take it from me your neighbourhood was kindergarten in comparison,petrol bombs were my forte!!

None the less Naws did make the comment that readers were dropping off so i gave him my 2 bobs worth.Anyhow i appreciate your efforts and as i said to those British paras bring it on!!

Gerard
  • #5,232
  • Sep 11, 2009 12:15am Sep 11, 2009 12:15am
Quoting strat
[color=Blue]""GW's observation regarding Shooting Stars often breaking with more momentum than Hammers,""

[color=Black]I didn't read that into it, Dan, so thanks for bringing it up, which leads me into:

Remember, the Markets obey The Laws of Nature (Physics). Simply put, what goes up MUST come down. Whether you believe it or not, the Markets are governed by the same Earth's gravitational pull as we are. This means price will always fall faster (and harder) than it climbs.

Think of PRICE as a concrete ball being rolled up a hill....
Great analogy Strat - exactly what I meant but explained 100% better. Markets fall with greater momentum than they do on the way up - simples!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,233
  • Sep 11, 2009 2:32am Sep 11, 2009 2:32am
Lower highs and lower lows
Bearish daily outside bar (or dbl high lower close) on the worker and a DSR (trendline) break delivers the goods ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,234
  • Sep 11, 2009 5:08am Sep 11, 2009 5:08am
Quoting elitejets
Lower highs and lower lows
Bearish daily outside bar (or dbl high lower close) on the worker and a DSR (trendline) break delivers the goods ...
Where is your PT?
  • #5,235
  • Sep 11, 2009 5:14am Sep 11, 2009 5:14am
Quoting alter
Where is your PT?
Hi Alter,
I took the CHFJPY not the EURJPY, I posted the EURJPY chart because more people trade it but they look the same.

I have a different strategy to most though. I take half of the trade off at 3x my risk (3x the stop size) and then I would try and hold this to see if it takes out the previous swing low at 131
For my trade in CHFJPY that is at 86.40
I have been using this TP method for a while and it is working for me, but Strat would tell you different I am sure.
TP in winning trades is always a hard one and can be quite personal.
  • #5,236
  • Sep 11, 2009 5:25am Sep 11, 2009 5:25am
Quoting elitejets
Hi Alter,
I took the CHFJPY not the EURJPY, I posted the EURJPY chart because more people trade it but they look the same.

I have a different strategy to most though. I take half of the trade off at 3x my risk (3x the stop size) and then I would try and hold this to see if it takes out the previous swing low at 131
For my trade in CHFJPY that is at 86.40
I have been using this TP method for a while and it is working for me, but Strat would tell you different I am sure.
TP in winning trades is always a hard one and can be quite personal.
If your SL is above the swing high (or above the bar) it would require kind of exceptional move to get profit 3 time bigger then SL. So I suppose you don't place SL above the entry bar, right?
  • #5,237
  • Sep 11, 2009 5:31am Sep 11, 2009 5:31am
Quoting alter
If your SL is above the swing high (or above the bar) it would require kind of exceptional move to get profit 3 time bigger then SL. So I suppose you don't place SL above the entry bar, right?
I did not use a full bar stop, no. I pick daily setups I like and look for 4hr (and sometimes 1hr entries). Its not "stress-free" and will give you more losers than using just daily candles, but I am profitable.
I do trade daily candles too and I try to get 3xrisk reward but I will adjust if that looks unlikely.
This daily candle is 80 pips and I think this trade has at least 200 pip potential targetting the previous swing low so thats a pretty nice return.

That is not something I would recommend for everyone but it works for me.
  • #5,238
  • Sep 11, 2009 9:07am Sep 11, 2009 9:07am
I browse forexfactory.com on occaision mainly for the calendar, and don't look at the forums much, or say much, but as a PA student for a few years now, I find Strats thread very informative and on target. I especially appreciate things being kept simple and suggesting that ones mastery of the simple should be the goal. I can also say that I've tried lower time frames and they are very frustrating and not worth the amount of time needed to effectively trade them...for my personality type anyway.

Thanks for sharing Strat, I will continue to read the thread.
  • #5,239
  • Sep 11, 2009 9:42am Sep 11, 2009 9:42am
@ jets:

i must fully agree that profit taking is probably one of the most difficult things to work out in trading...

Although your method of profit taking works for you. i could never be comfortable taking frofit from the market at an arbitratry distance based on my stop...

if you are letting the market( and not some squiglly/ line) tell you when to enter the market, why not let the market (and not some arbitrary number) dictate when to protect your position and take profit
  • #5,240
  • Sep 11, 2009 10:24am Sep 11, 2009 10:24am
Quoting pizdun
@ jets:

i must fully agree that profit taking is probably one of the most difficult things to work out in trading...

Although your method of profit taking works for you. i could never be comfortable taking frofit from the market at an arbitratry distance based on my stop...

if you are letting the market( and not some squiglly/ line) tell you when to enter the market, why not let the market (and not some arbitrary number) dictate when to protect your position and take profit
I take your point. The arbitrary distance is where I take half off to pay for my stop, then if it retraces and I am stopped out I have made 1x my risk.
The second half of the trade I use SR levels, swing hi/lo's and price action reversals to determine when I take the rest off.
I know many people who take half off at 1:1 and then the stop is paid for and it becomes what they call a "free trade".
I dont apply this rule to an ATM or counter trend trade.

As I said, my rules are unusual and not for everyone.
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