Ichimoku forever

Hi Peter,

6am GMT. What was your entry price and SL value and will review it now if you like!

Cheers.

Hitman,

Looks like someone has some stops around 86.00.

The length of the tail on this latest 5min candle though implies that someone is buying into the downward movement.

We may see the NY's test the mettle of the stops in the next hour or so.

NOTE - not required with ichi however interesting that the latest closed 5min candle bounced off the 50 day moving average which has turned up again and is looking to cross the 100 day soon.

Supports the idea that this trend isn't finished!

Cheers.

Has anyone ever looked at matching renko bricks with ichi? Here's a pic of the euro with 10 pip bricks. (there is no time with renko, a new brick is formed after price moves a certain amount, in this case 10 pips)

Decided against golf today to monitor the short from last night into the US session.

Just closed out 51.4 pips (92.07 down to whatever that less 51.4pips is )

Great call yesterday mate. I didn't get in high enough to make this a long term trade however next support is around 91.20-91.00 area and below that it's 89.60.

Still plenty of milk in this cow!

Thanx a lot, 4xAddict,

My entry price was 1.0389, SL 1.0398, time: 6.26 am GMT.

I will be back in about 2 hours, and will post my reasoning behind that trade.

Regards,

Peter

brilliant mate , O Green World , i am still on with this deal , i think i might TP @ 89.6x, also am movin my SL with Ks 4hrs , we have to concentrate on the long term deals they are completely stress free , i'd likt to have one deal on long term and work intra day from my 5 min, we need to discuss this idea mate.
cheers

Hi
1/ You say you target 50 pips. If the TS crosses the KD in the opposite direction while you are in a trade, do you close out the existing trade?
2/ Why not go for more pips, stay in the trade until either price crosses the KS or the TS crosses the KS again? I suppose the traditional long term view to exit the trade is when the TS crosses the KS the opposite way to your trade.

Hi Peter,

There are a couple of things that I see that contributed to this trade failing however your have also been a bit unlucky on this one given how clearly and reliably a number of other pairs have been performing recently.

Review
Firstly the period between 6am and 8am is the time when everyone in europe/london gets to the office to start trading for the day. With Ichi we generally only trade the Asian and US session when possible as they tend to behave more consistently in trends than the London/European session. Frankfurt open and London open often have a habit of retracing some of Asias moves and behaving in a generally obnoxious manner.

There are so many possible scenarios that could drive this that it is impossible to ever know the exact reasoning. Simply put, due to this occurring so regularly we tend to try and avoid the period at market open.

I know that is kind of a nothing answer however I have been burned at this time of the morning on numerous occasions so now I just simply wait for calmer waters.

Secondly, the TS on your entry on 5min is flat and the Chikou is pointing upwards. The 1min TS is also heading up close to the KS and the Chikou is above the price instead of below it (also pointing upwards).

When entering on the 5min charts I always like to see a decent angle down on the TS to confirm it's really heading south before I enter a sell order. Generally speaking (and I think of it is a gravity effect) the market seems to plummet faster than it rises because psychologically people are more inclined to bail out fast to avoid loss rather than blindly jump in.

Stop Loss Positioning
We normally start trades with our SL above the kumo on the 5min chart - in this case this would have been at 1.0410 (13 pips from your entry point). Once we see 20-25pips (this initial TP value is purely dependent on the risk profile of each trader, as some will bank 10 pips and be happy), we will normally move our SL to break even on the second half of the position and trade with other people's money with zero chance of loss.

Kumo Shape
I think that the main consideration to be very careful of is the kumo thickness. When the kumo is thick it means there is high volatility and also strength in the move that is currently happening. When it is really thin as it was when you entered it implies low volatility and a lack of confirmed trend direction. This was supported by the flatness of the TS on the 5min chart.

The 30min, 1hr, 4hr and daily charts also all had pronounced "flat tops" on them when you entered and these are known to have a gravitational pull on the price action from below up towards them. The inverse relationship is true for upward movements.

Other Contributing Factors
1. Very small SL - 11 pips is very close, normally if we locate our SL on top of the 5min kumo it's closer to 50 pips away and with us targeting a 50pip TP, it means we have a 1:1 risk reward ratio.

By giving ourselves room to move like this, it means that we do not have to pick the absolute trend top or bottom of a move in order to make decent pips.

Now the obvious question here is "but if you put it above the kumo then it would also only have been 13 pips". That is correct, and this distance being due to the very narrow kumo would have been enough of a deterrent to not enter.

2. Lack of short term trend strength and flat kumo top on longer time frames.

Going Forward
The SL is something easily rectified, just give yourself more breathing room. I sold the U/Y overnight at 92.07 and located the SL above the previous daily highs at 92.60. This 50pip (+ broker spread) allowed me to ride out the early european turmoil which went up to 92.25 twice before ending up tanking later in the NY session and dropping over 80pips from it's London market top.

Regarding the kumo characteristics (weather forecast), I would suggest re-reading over the first 10 pages of the thread, checking the website www.kumotrader.com and then also asking the guys on the thread for the ichi video link. It's been listed in here within the last 10 pages. This will give you a clearer picture of how the weather can affect your trades.

Solution
Keep coming back here and if it means better outcomes for you, then simply make a pact to only trade suggestions listed in here for a few weeks so that you can see the way the analysts are preparing and confirming entries. This will give you the support and clarity that you can only get from live trading.

Vic and the other Kumo Warriors are more that happy to answer any questions that you may have further. Probably best is to email us at the address below my message and we will explain things for you as best we can.

The report archive has trade idea reports on there where each warrior has pulled together a summary of each trade that has been entered which is also a great reference tool.

Conclusion - What are the easiest/safer pairs to start with?
Finally, U/CHF is not the easiest pair to trade as it has a lot of underlying factors influencing it including but not limited to:

1. CHF has a love hate relationship with the market as it has previously been a safe haven currency so has previously been impacted when risk appetite increases/decreases differently to most others. At the moment the market is not 100% committed to the safe haven status of the CHF so sometimes it can react one way and other times it wont.
2. Swiss Gov has been selling CHF into the market to stop it appreciating so there is heightened speculation taking place on this pair
3. CHF is at lows now that have not been seen for a really long time so support is going to make trading any new lows quite a choppy game for the short term.

Follow the U/J, E/J, A/U, E/U and G/U for more logical behaviour and each one has a warrior providing daily analysis and trade suggestions for it.

Good luck mate, hope that helped and feel free to Private Message me or send an email if you need further info.

Cheers.

Thought this off my news reel subscription might have assisted with the strange moves in the pair today.

NEWSOFTHEDAY - 9.32am GMT
US Dollar vs Swiss Franc: Vague chatter of SNB rumors aiding USD against Euro and Swiss pairs - dealers
- Followup: Dealers point out that RBS was a large buyer of USD ahead of US equity open

4xAddict,

First off, I would like to say big thank you for such a detailed reply, to be honest, I did not expect to get that complete answer. You are amazing folks here!!

Regarding the times of a day to trade, I am inclined to believe that most action happens in Europe/London session and London/New York overlap times. Most of the time London has better moves, at least from my experience, so I am not going to give up my London session trading even when using Ichi =)

Also I am a kind of a technical trader, I believe that everything you need is on the charts, so I never trust any news and do not believe in fundamentals but I think though that there are some people who are really good at analyzing fundamentals and profiting from it, it is just me being a purely technical trader. I would like to remove as much discretion from my trading as possible, only this way I can become consistently profitable, so fundamental explanations of my losses do not qualify ))

As for TS and Chikou, I agree, it may be my mistake (I am just learning), next time I will watch the TS angle more carefully. However, Chikou was pointing upward because I was trying to get in on a pullback.

Also the I must have noticed the Kumo being flat on multiple TFs, thanx for that point.

And I completely agree on a SL: I tend to put a tighther SL to increase my RR ratio but if often is hit, I need to give a trade more breathing space.

To sum up, I will try to be more careful next time and will take into account all the points you mentioned (except fundamentals ))

Big thanx again for all your time spent explaining everything to me.
Let the pips be with you, buddy!

Best wishes,

Peter

I'd like to thank all the warriors for trusting ichimoku and trust in me and agreed to gather so we can make a wonderful team , Guys really thank you for your hard work and efforts , you have opened my eyes to markets i never been in , this is my first life time to trade GBP USD and it was a very successful trade made me 100 pip

THANK YOU WARRIORS WE ARE MAKING A GREAT TEAM

Have a nice day all

Hi Peter,

Not a problem, glad you have joined us.

Regarding fundamentals, you're certainly not the only one who takes a purely technical point of view and in fact I am a strong believer in the possibility to suffer analysis paralysis from trying to balance every possible thing coming in.

Many of the guys in here ignore the fundamentals and run a purely tech approach and do really well. A few of us recently just decided to steer clear of things around major news events to add another layer of control over our Money Management.

Regarding trading London, I too trade the London session but I try to avoid getting in before it has settled from the open. I think this is amplified by how calm and steady Asia can be with its trend direction and then the contrast appears to be markedly less manageable once Europe opens. The sizeable moves are certainly there, they just catch ichi by surpirse at times which is what keeps me more cautious than normal.

Once again, great you're hear with us and please feel free to post any trades that you are considering entering where you see potential setups. We all pool our analysis so that we all see the benefits of great trade suggestions and learn from the mistakes that are inevitably made - keep us up to date with how you're going!

Cheers!

hi guys
i have been busy these days . i can see you are doing great .
thanks for this nice thread vic and guys you are great with these reports . thats so pro . keep it up
regards

Hi everyone,

Just a note confirming that the expected post news pattern for the GBP occurred again today after the GBP interest rate decision.

The pair (G/U) jumped 70 pips in the first 5 mins only to retrace and then build into the midday lunch period. After lunch the correction took place and those that chose to enter at this time actually would have made a solid return (50+pips) without all the news release stress.

Cheers!

Thank you Samer for your nice words, I hope the reports are helpful.
This team is wonderful I’ve been able to have a wide view on several pairs with sharp eyes , it helped me to choose which pair I’ll put my money in !! This week was not the EUR JPY!!! It was USD JPY!!! I was amazed by this pair it proved for me some important points, I used to hear a lot of big boys speaking about the USD JPY and they were correct, it is one of the safest currencies ever, very smooth, able to provide a tide risk control and very good responding to ichi, I think it can ensure long term plan and stress free trades. I am testing it on 4hrs it will save us a lot of time. Also the GBP USD is awesome it can cover the previous points. These trending pairs are good on the long run, they are clear and predictable. These markets are where you can make money.
Wish you all the best

Cheers

p.s. tomorrow I’ll post some stuff am sure you will like.

As I mentioned in my previous post.. I am very much enjoying the education of this thread. I like others have avoided Ichimoku method for lack of understanding and chart clarity. I feel as though this thread has built a confidence in me to began to take trades using this method.

However, with that being said... A picture is still worth a thousand words. The Daily Analysis is informative but a greater compliment to those pdf's as well as this thread, would be if some of you veteran ICHI traders could post some charts of your closed trades.

A nice chart showing entries and exits is certainly more than helpful to young warriors preparing for battle.

If you are using MT4 as your platform, I would suggest dragging and dropping your closed trade from "accounts history" tab directly to the chart. This will automatically show an arrow (entry) w/ a line drawn to a triangle (exit). You may then put a vertical line at your entry point to further enhance the entry if you so desire. These kind of charts are easy to read and identify, and further solidify that you made a legitimate trade using this method.

Thanks again.. I look forward to seeing some of your charts and hopefully posting some myself!!

revrobwimb

Samer- I thought you were trading today due to all the whipsaws! lol I thought you were pushing the market around! Good to hear from you.

Vic-great job on the cable trade!!

I also want to say that 4x is a great teacher and he is dead on with what he said! Great job.

I followed my own advice and stayed out today. I didnt like the way the news releases were coming out-just when things resume the way they should-Bam! A news release..lol I could have grabbed a few here and there but I like things a little calmer. lol


I just want to say that for those trading eu- be aware that we need a move down at some point so we can continue with the uptrend. I don't know how news might have altered the eb and flow but be prepared. Also remember that a lot of the big boyz will take profit on Friday-or they might drink too much red bull and run the price up to 1.49! lol Go with a strong signal with the trend and when you get some room, move the stop. If it was meant to run-you'll get to lock in some profit. Euro moves with less volatility than others (usually) so if you trade the way Vic taught, you should be safe.

4X went over stop placement and he is right-put your stop in a safe place and allow the trade room to move. I think I mentioned that I use a tight stop and if I threw anyone off I apologize. Once you learn the pair and get used to ichi-you can get away with certain things. I get stopped out like anyone else but I guarantee you this "on other pairs I use rational stops!" lol

Hope you guys are enjoying the thread and I will try to announce some set ups when they happen. I know lately with euro it's been pretty easy-Bullish, wait for buy signal. I also don't countertrend trade so don't expect me to announce a sell on a retrace. hehe!

Cheers!!

How would you guys react in this in situation? I am short usd/jpy which is in line with the long term trend. But there is a short term consolodation (see the ichi on 1 minute and 5 minute).

Would you guys get out while it consolidates and then get back in when the long term trend continues?

Or would you stay the course knowing it will probably shoot back up and be prepared to accept a small loss if it doesn't (when it hits sl)?

Hello All

here is the AUD USD long position Report , i stopped out this position with small losses , everything is explained in the report.

have a nice day

p.s.i'll be providing a full report about the USD JPY 4Hrs trade by tomorrow.

all,

Hope everyone avoided the whipsaws or on the other hand took advantage of them if you were brave enough to trade with the trend. The trend truly is your friend. Ichi should have told you in the end where your bets should be.

The Kiwi has sustain its position even though we've had, news, swings in gold, and a general belief in the green back. Its still overall trading in this range before a possible push forward as i reported in the weekly. I remain bullish, but will respect the possiblity of several bounces due to its heavily traded nature by its commodity characteristics (does have a bit of the carry tradism in it also long).

Happy Pippin to all,

Lionsden