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AUD/USD

  • #3,201
  • Sep 8, 2009 9:48pm Sep 8, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting puks
I am fighting this gorilla and hope to bring it down to my profit level at .8400 by Friday. Retail sales down ----> 50 pips down. London and NY will make it 100 pips. Tomorrow's unemployment data down ----> 50 pips in Asian session followed by 50 pips in London/NY session. If that happens, I'll be a happy man by Friday
just hold on there Puks price tendency is down so i also expect the bears momentum to continue , i see 0.8510 is on the table
  • #3,202
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:24pm Sep 8, 2009 10:24pm
With the dip in the retail trade data and the home loans points to a slowing down of the economy with the consequence that it takes the heat off the RBA to increase interest rates .....this other than the weak Usd seems to be the force that has been driving the Aud ...looks like it is time for the Aud to grab the breather we have been expecting.
  • #3,203
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:42pm Sep 8, 2009 10:42pm
What a stressful ride from Friday, it's finally pulling back; I'm waiting for 0.8400 also; as long as US stocks go down this week we'll see it easily... I still think when US stocks finally get their correction (10% or so) we'll get the AUD between 0.78-0.800 again, then it'll probably shoot towards 0.900 assuming the US stocks continue their uptrend.
  • #3,204
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:03pm Sep 8, 2009 11:03pm
In the Black,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,205
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:25pm Sep 8, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting geribosi
do you think it'll bounce back to pre-new release tonight?
maybe not that high, but in case of recovery it could be a good short chance, let's see what happens
  • #3,206
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:31pm Sep 8, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting AussieMatt
In the Black,
good job AussieMatt and this how i see from the shortt term technical perspective but...

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...rm_4ba11f3.png

expect the unexpected incase the bulls get angry and shoot up
  • #3,207
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:36pm Sep 8, 2009 11:36pm
we are not far from a test of the 200ema

it should bounce from 0,8550 - 60 otherwise it could fall further
  • #3,208
  • Sep 9, 2009 12:13am Sep 9, 2009 12:13am
I wouldnt wish shorts upon anyone here! Look at gold futures flirting with the 1000 level right now, if it were to act as a firm resistance it would have bounced off the level, however it didnt. I will be looking to add longs around .8577, and 8550 if it reaches there, short term target .8700.


AUD has lots of strength
  • #3,209
  • Sep 9, 2009 1:16am Sep 9, 2009 1:16am
Quoting mfoste1
I wouldnt wish shorts upon anyone here! Look at gold futures flirting with the 1000 level right now, if it were to act as a firm resistance it would have bounced off the level, however it didnt. I will be looking to add longs around .8577, and 8550 if it reaches there, short term target .8700.


AUD has lots of strength
lets see....

i bet it'll hit 85 before it hits 87.
  • #3,210
  • Sep 9, 2009 1:37am Sep 9, 2009 1:37am
Any A/J short from here? 79.5?
  • #3,211
  • Sep 9, 2009 1:52am Sep 9, 2009 1:52am
Quoting puks
lets see....

i bet it'll hit 85 before it hits 87.
i think more possible it ll hit the 8560 before it tries a league higher but i dont think it ll make any new highs for this week or even before the last week of the month
  • #3,212
  • Sep 9, 2009 2:14am Sep 9, 2009 2:14am
good idea as well to gather some pips from the USD/CAD as we wait the final settle for the AUD/USD , i got some profit from there , it moved 40 pips till now
  • #3,213
  • Sep 9, 2009 3:49am Sep 9, 2009 3:49am
News popping up here and there about fragile economies and commodities seen pulling back slightly. This'll fuel the bears for a bit.
  • #3,214
  • Sep 9, 2009 3:57am Sep 9, 2009 3:57am
Quoting T55
News popping up here and there about fragile economies and commodities seen pulling back slightly. This'll fuel the bears for a bit.
what news? can you please send us a link or two?

thx
  • #3,215
  • Sep 9, 2009 4:05am Sep 9, 2009 4:05am
A link: http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009...fx6861953.html

Or two: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_...467373063.html

Or three: http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0909-fgvz.html

Though the last is a bit more positive. Not necessarily Australia's economy thats fragile... more so in Europe. The problem in Europe is that they need a weaker Euro in order to aid in recovery. And the Euro and AUD tends to have a strong correlation with each other against the USD
  • #3,216
  • Sep 9, 2009 4:58am Sep 9, 2009 4:58am
It seems that something is going to happen like last year, this time I believe the EURO has to stop as from talking to my friends in Finland they say things are not so great. The AUD is really worth .80 at least

I am an Aussie and I am waiting for Fammira or Ticker?? to let me know.. I believe the AUD is long the Yen is suspect and the Euro must stop

Fammira old mate ???
  • #3,217
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:27am Sep 9, 2009 5:27am
hey G_man,

How you doing? what are your thoughts now that the retail sales number is crap?

Personally I dont believe it'll reach .8650 anytime soon but the most frustrating thing is that it's not even going down...

your thoughts?
  • #3,218
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:31am Sep 9, 2009 5:31am
i think it might go up and touch the SMA and sinks deeper again ,, that would be by the start of the NY session
  • #3,219
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:56am Sep 9, 2009 5:56am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting puks
hey G_man,

How you doing? what are your thoughts now that the retail sales number is crap?

Personally I dont believe it'll reach .8650 anytime soon but the most frustrating thing is that it's not even going down...

your thoughts?
i think one of the major reason for recent AUD strength is simply the gold prices ... so the question is why and how long the gold prices will stay in that level?...

R & S for this week in my opinion:

R1: 8620
R2: 8660
R3: 8700
S1: 8560
S2: 8500
S3: 8430
  • #3,220
  • Sep 9, 2009 5:58am Sep 9, 2009 5:58am
Morning - good trades today


SSI: AUDUSD Retail Traders Buy Dips as Pair Hits Fresh 2009 High
Wednesday, 09 September 2009 09:23:27 GMT
Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXCM Sentiment.PNG Size: 349 KB


Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.98 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 25.5% higher than yesterday and 19.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 63.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.4% stronger than yesterday and 47.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.


Bank of Scotland's Daily Market Strategy

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BOSMarketStrategyDaily9Sep2009.pdf   100 KB | 221 downloads


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