Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Here is my view of the markets, remember I am often wrong
Don't forget Monday is a big US Holiday and US markets are closed.
Nicola

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Non Farm Phoey ... Another August week of no change and endless possibilities with lots at key levels, especially European currencies.


USD index is stuck, consolidating sideways between 78 and 79 where it has been for two weeks with no sign of which way it is going to go. Long term the chart is still very bearish but a rally is not out of the question. A break in the USD index of either of those two levels will show the way. If the gold price breakout continues to rise and indices rise then a breakdown of the support in the USD seems more likely.


Indices ... are sideways still. After falling off steeply at the beginning of the week indices rallied going into the holiday weekend despite worse than expected jobs number.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4...0/cl+daily.gifCrude weekly bearish, daily bearish and lower highs ... but coming up to possible support at $67 (rising trendline, fib level and previous support level and 40day MA). Chart suggests further weakness but support here could mean the uptrend resumes.



Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is very bullish, daily is bullish with good inside bar on Friday. Has yet to break the February high and key 1000 psychological level. No indication to short yet ... but a break down of the daily IB would suggest a retest of the the breakout level before a possible move higher. Failure to hold above the breakout level puts gold back in the ranges.


Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish, it just passed the June 3rd high of 16.25 area on Thursday and Friday pulled back to closed at the level. Bullish price action here suggests a test of resistance at $17.00, but a pullback here is a double top.


AUDUSD weekly strongly bullish (DLHC- double low higher close), daily bullish, has broken out of the 8150-8450 range along with the Gold breakout. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction.


AUDJPY Weekly bullish but sideways, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel and held below 50fib level and 80.00 price. Got good support off the psycho 76 level and Aussie is looking strong all round if gold continues north and Im watching for a breakout of the channel. Looks good to rally.


NZDUSD Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish in sideways range in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00. Not a trade at the moment unless it breaks this level or gives a short signal.


NZDJPY Weekly bullish hammer in slight descending wedge / channel, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel. I am watching for a break of the weekly hammer or price action to short off the top of the channel.


AUDNZD Weekly bullish, daily bullish has been in a two week uptrend but within longer term down trend of daily lower highs and lower lows. Pushing up on strong resistance at 1.24-1.2450 area and 50fib of last swing high/low, I am watching for price action or a possible break up through this level on strong Aussie/gold price.


USDCAD Weekly and daily Bearish but rangebound, despite weakening crude prices. The daily rising wedge pattern is bearish it looks set to break the ascending support line and 1.08 level but strong support at 1.07


CADJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish but within downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Price found support off 61.8fib retracement level of last swing high/low and is now at the top of the descending channel. It could very well change trend and rally north here. I am looking for price action to short (none yet) or a breakout north.

EURCAD Weekly bearish shooting star after pullback in downtrend, daily bearish marabuzo, sell on rips. My advice to myself to short off the 1.58 level last week would have worked really well if only I had taken it ...


GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows. Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies. Again ... if only I had


GBPUSD Weekly bullish retracement after downtrend, daily tweezer bottomed 1t 1.6112 level, a big weekly SR level. Chart is messy, it breached a support line last week and then climbed above, then broke up from a descending channel but went sideways Friday. Not the best looking trade out there, stuck like the dollar index, I am neutral, and waiting for a breakout for more direction. Weakest of the European currencies.

GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer


GBPCHF - Weekly inside bar after strong downtrend, daily haas bounced off strong weekly support at 1.71. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies).

EURGBP - Weekly inside bar, daily has found resistance off weekly level at 88.30. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.


EURUSD Sideways but Bullish, a weekly doji followed by a ... weekly doji. EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength. Stuck in a range between 1.4180 and 1.4405. Like the USD index it needs to break out and the only way is to trade the range until it does.


EURJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in downtrend, this has found support at 1.31. Weekly is making higher lows but daily is still in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Need to watch for more direction, could rally from here.


EURCHF Weekly and daily has pulled up in downtrend. Not the best looking trade, it is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50


USDCHF weekly doji, following a weekly doji. Daily bearish but consolidating sideways. Daily descending wedge is bullish and daily candle wicks below the 1.o6 level sugest it could be a base for a move up but no clear direction at the moment.


USDJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in donwtrend. Looks to have found support above previous low at 91.75 and set to move up from here making a higher low but longer term trend is bearish.


USDNOK Weekly and daily bearish but sideways and rangebound. It has broken the 6 level but support at 5.94 needs to break.


NAT GAS (Oct 09 - NGV9) New weekly low but daily bullish engulfing candle suggests a pullback might be setting up in long downtrend. I would wait and look for price action to sell rallies off old support at 3.2 or 3.6 levels

Copper (HGV09) - Weekly bullish hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish and above 50fib level but still needs to negotiate 3000 level and 07 lows. Buy on dips in anticipation of a break but a daily lower high gets me short.


Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily bullish off support at 12280 but still in a tightening wedge. I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel but does not look exciting.


Sugar (SBV09) Weekly big bearish engulfing bar, daily bearish pullback in uptrend. At the moment uptrend is intact and a buy on dips. Need to wait to buy off 20 or 18, or more confirmation that the uptrend is over as ascending trendline is still intact.


Cocoa (CCZ09) - Like the dollar the weekly is sideways and the daily is in a tightening triangle/wedge and needs to breakout. Held below the 3,000 level needs to break that to buy if the uptrend continues. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.


Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly bearish after rejection from 500 level, daily bearish and at multi year lows. Sell on rallies.


Corn (ZCZ09) - Weekly and daily bearish sitting on 300 level which looks set to break for a retest of the previous low at 290. Sell on rallies or break, anticipating new lows or a possible double bottom at 290.


Soy Beans (ZSX09) - This week gapped below 1000 and kept going. Weekly bearish in 4 month downtrend, daily bearish making lower highs and lower lows. Anticipating retest of previous low at 882 level.


Coffee (KCZ9) - Weekly bullish after pullback in uptrend. Daily bullish off 120 support level. Price looks to be consolidating in a tightening wedge and not a trade for me.


Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly bullish after making new lows at 43 and now trading above 50. Daily bullish but still in downtrend. Not a trade for me here, could be a short setup off support turned resitance at 52.00


Live Cattle (LEV09) - Weekly big bullish engulfing and daily is bullish but sideways off support at 86.00 with stronger support below at 85.50 Weekly still bearish I dont see a trade here yet.

I think Danny is aiming it at me, although I know he did some trading last week on his holiday, and I am actually on holiday this week.
I am planning to trade less but better ... just some good daily trades

I echo the bearish view of the loonie at this time. (All 3 TF MAs, DSRI, SR levels)
Ignoring everything but the chart my only internal debate is where the conservative line in the sand is. I currently am of the personal conviction that it will take a break of 1.065 and a retest for anything but an ATM type of trade. I normally stick to rounder numbers so wrestled with 1.08 and 1.07 (as noted by Nicola), but have this suspicion that profit taking will cause too many wiggly lines between 1.065 and 1.08.
My risk in waiting is losing the potential profit off any PA that involves PASR at 1.07 and not 1.065, a tradeoff that I am currently comfortable with.
My next expected area of congestion would be good ole 1.03 again.
Any holes in the logic? I am here to learn.
walt
ps. The reason for 1.065 is the congregation of Boss closes in july/aug 2007 and 2008 plus the single bounce early August 09.

LOL - Nic! You sussed me out! You should be a detective

Not aimed at you directly Nic, but I was reading some files I had last night and then when u said u were on holiday (so was I!) it reminded me of that .pdf I had from a few years back.

Thought it would be useful for the traders on here. Good trading all,

Good post. I appriciate it

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For anyone thinking of opening a spreadbetting acct, take a look at ETX Capital.
At the moment, if you open an acct, they give you 100 quid to start off with. you don't have to deposit any money.( unless you want to top up your starting balance.)
Any profits made can be withdrawn, but obviously you can't withdraw the 100.
only drawback, minimum 1 quid a pip.

SEND IN THE CLOWNS:

They're already HERE (from the song)

They can’t even agree the count on the same thread!

Post #3181

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Good example of a bottom and trend change. This is the kind of thing that I'm working on getting the skills and patience to trade. It stops me trying to pick tops and bottoms on the strength of a single candle pattern (as in Al Brook's Book)

Why is it so hard to trade the trend? Seems simple does it not? Yet still after all these years I seem 'programmed' to try and pick counter trend trades. All about having an ego I guess that I need to stamp out of myself. God I hate the 'internal chatterbox'. This is the guy you have to beat if you want to be a successful trader in my opinion. That wretched little internal voice. Grrr

Amazing - these people trade off waves and ABCs with a little divergence from nasty indicators thrown in for good measure!!

I love the guy who charts 'divergence sure to come' LOL
Like there are any certainties in this business?? He needs to read 'Trading in the Zone' 'Fooled by Randomness' and 'Black Swan' amongst many others!!

The good news is that these guys are out there for us to take the opposite side of with good old, 1930 Edwards and Magee classic Price Action.

Cheers for shining the torch down the black tunnel of PA Strat - hope to never look back - indeed KNOW I'll never look back!

eurusd s/r

more recent eurusd s/r

What are those bars? - Renko bars or Range bars or Sports bars or chocolate bars or prison bars or ..............?

Looks like we might have a test of DSRI here

renko

i find them clearer for id-ing levels than candles.

Gold just spiked through $1000 this morning. This will not be a happy day for the US Dollar ...

This is a big level and tantamount to a news release like NFPs. I would trade carefully before jumping in at this level. We are in the gold buying season (Indian weddings amongst other drivers) but I will be waiting for a good strong penetration of this level then a retest before getting in. There will be a lot of noise around this level I predict or it could be a mass ETF buying spree by small investors as this is plastered all over the newspapers.

Is this gold wagging the dollar or the break of the USD Index support wagging gold? (thanks for the chart Nic btw!)

Candles, bars etc., do not identify S&R levels - our Mark I eyeball in conjunction with the porridge between our ears identifies S&R levels from the footprints left behind by the market.

EURUSD - Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.

Yesterday's Sunday bar was, I thought, all lined up for a down move so I placed my sell stop below the low of the bar. Fortunately, no damage was done, as the big boys didn't go on a stop run before their 200 + pip move in the opposite direction today.

The beauty about Sunday bars is the low risk. Had they done a stop run, my SL would have been a few pips above the high of the Sunday bar so my loss would only have been about 50 pips. A very easy loss to take!

A 50 pip loss is equivalent to fly shit in a pepper pot when trading the Worker and above.

Now, when trading M15, 50 pips is a big loss. When trading M5, 50 pips is a HUGE loss. It's all relative.

Now is a good time to confirm CAPITAL PRESERVATION rules:

NEVER TRADE WITHOUT A STOP LOSS

IMMEDIATELY AFTER BEING FILLED, PLACE YOUR STOP LOSS ORDER

NEVER MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS ORDER

DO NOT INTERFERE WITH YOUR STOP LOSS ORDER

DO NOT "BABY SIT" YOUR TRADES - WHAT WILL BE, WILL BE

IF YOUR STOP IS HIT - TRADE OVER, YOU ARE DONE, TAKE IT ON THE CHIN, FORGET IT, NO HARM DONE, DO NOT DO A "If I had done this and this, it wouldn't have been hit" POST MORTEM, DO NOT FEEL BAD, DO NOT FEEL OR EVEN THINK YOU HAVE "FAILED" - SIMPLY JUST MOVE ON TO THE NEXT TRADE

For those that participated in the TEST, here is what happened.

Remember what I told you and NEVER, EVER forget it or IGNORE it. If you do forget or ignore it, then you will be back with the 98% LOSERS.

When I get chance, I will do a PM with the summary and send to all those who participated.

Those of you that didn't participate, you missed an EXCELLENT opportunity to notch up your trading skills but never mind, we need somebody to feed off!

i can hear those bars from "Mack the Knife" already starting up