AUD/USD

Are you scalping short? Or looking longer term? Have you traded during the September to December period before? The market can go beyond what anyone can believe it will go. Believe me, I've been on the wrong side before - many times.

If you are shorting you have to be really nimble when the market is in a mood like this.

I really don't mean to preach but be safe.

good to hear from you Puks 8625 resistance move above it delay adding short (1 minute chart)

absolutely thats my landscape aka reading the mind of the markets participant , then the quote price aka the support and resistance in real time finally the candle chart formations aka higher-high/ higher-low, ring the bell ?

or you might like the stochastic http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...92&postcount=1

keep the positivity flow and share what you know before it taken from you

The market is scary as it is and you're making me worried. I' ve only started for 3 months. I am not a scalper but you can say a mix of trend and position trader. I am shorting with a target of .8400. 5 standard lots and market is against me by 250 pips....

there you go penetrated 8640 jump in? I am

I know how you feel - I have been there before but this is the worse time of year to be on the wrong side. I wrote this in another thread and I know it concerns the Euro but it's still relevant.

I'm still spewing at my stupid mistake on Friday shorting the AUD because I was trying to warn others about this volatile period on another thread on 16 August and I've been through this period 5 years now and I still got sucked in. I'm not saying that it's not going to turn, you just don't know when it will.

I've just been fiddling with some numbers on Excel for the EUR/USD. I don't know whether they will be of use to anybody but I may as well put them out there since I've done them.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1250455530

I am assuming my spreadsheet is self-explanatory. I basically just wanted to give myself a better idea of the ranges during September-December. You have probably heard me banging on about this Xmas rally from time to time and if you've never experienced it, it can be a bit of a shocker (especially when you are on the wrong side and I have been on the wrong side a few times).

What has become apparent to me is if you look at the range for Sep-Dec for each respective year and compare it to the yearly range for that year you can see that the Sep-Dec range is basically half of the total yearly range (if not more in some cases). So, what I'm saying is that within a three month period, the range can be nearly half (or more) of the range done in the 12 month period.

Of course Sep-Dec 2008 was abnormal. The trend was down initially but we had that massive spike back up in December which took PA back to 1.4718 at the high so it nearly retraced the whole of the Sep-Dec down move.

It we take 2008 out of the equation and add up the yearly ranges from 2000-2007 and then divide it by 8 we get an average yearly range of 1,903 pips. For 2009, we have done 1,990 pips (low of 1.2456 and high of 1.4446). That's why I've said in another post that we have basically done our average yearly range. Not that it matters really because we are not in normal times.

I suppose what I am trying to stress here is that once the trend becomes obvious then don't fight it (trying to scalp against the trend in this period can be an account killer). If you dare to scalp against the trend then be like Jack "nimble and quick" (or make damn sure you have your stop loss in place).

Sorry to rave on about it.

My goal is 0.8400 also, but in order to see that, I believe we really need a nice pullback in US stocks, that's when the dollar usually gains strength.. I've been adding to my position (starting at 0.8430's on Friday) and this break out is really hurting... just have to hang in there, we should get a nice pullback in US stocks this month and also in October... I can see a breakdown closer to 0.8250 but I'm more into salvage mode here than profit mode now lol...

I added more to my position this morning at 0.86375, which looked to be great earlier , but we're back up there now already... as long as we don't break to new highs soon we'll survive another day.

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/2...2m_816ad55.png

yes i meant short ... but i've been wrong last couple of days so just ignore me ...

thats why i like your comment and analysis, no bullsh1t or try to paint on forum canvas the beautiful copy picasso but sending the true message across instead ! good on you mate

Glad I waited for the market to decide on it's direction. I slept in then had PC problems all morning so I couldn't jump on this huge move up but I didn't get caught on the wrong side either because thing look as though it would break downwards by the chart pattern.

from fundamental analysis
AUD USD will go up cause of gold and commodities gainning and it likely to contine to outperform . however thing to take note that G20 comment on excessive volatility could result unwinding of position .
from technician analysis
it aready break fibo 61.8 for monthy chart . the next res area will be 8800

it better to wait and see how the market move . if you want to short wait for it to reach 8800

If I can warn as many people as I can about this time of the year, then all is good. It was truly a shocker for me when I started trading.

And it's when retail traders finally realise the trend and get on board with it, the market goes BANG right the other way. As they say, expect the unexpected

how strong is 8655?

i am expecting break out 80.00

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...8m_d0e8d4c.png

stop the ausiie/dollar bleeding too or just eat the bullets! nah ... the best defence is attack( aud/jpy)

Thanks for the good stuff patience, keep it coming

yesterday i wrote 8676 is likely the reversal point only if the bears agree with me

Ben10,
Do you use the WMAs on all time frames? I thought you used them on the 1M chart now you have an hour chart up? I was using a similar set just not the larger ones and I would wait too long waiting for the 2 sets to cross. Do you know what I mean?

reduce some aussie/yen position for profit as the 1 minute chart reverse