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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #43,281
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:44am Sep 8, 2009 2:44am
Quoting my30marahaba
Hi Jarroo,

Thx very much for your explanation
It's always cool to look ahead of Price to see areas that are heavily confluenced. I'm not saying that Price is heading there right now (maybe ), but the 92.00 on the Cad/Jpy sure looks good.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,282
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:05am Sep 8, 2009 3:05am
Quoting jarroo
It's always cool to look ahead of Price to see areas that are heavily confluenced. I'm not saying that Price is heading there right now (maybe ), but the 92.00 on the Cad/Jpy sure looks good.
Agree with you jarroo, not hurry but watching closely with the patience to see how the process of pa going up.

enclosure the weekly chart of forexlite index lfxjpy and cadlfx on weekly TF
CADJPY = (lfxjpy*cadlfx)
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  • #43,283
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:10am Sep 8, 2009 3:10am
Quoting my30marahaba
Agree with you jarroo, not hurry but watching closely with the patience to see how the process of pa going up.

enclosure the weekly chart of forexlite index lfxjpy and cadlfx on weekly TF
CADJPY = (lfxjpy*cadlfx)

Nice charts mymarahaba.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,284
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:16am Sep 8, 2009 3:16am
Quoting benji533
Thank you Aaron for your comment.
Ben
Quoting benji533
Hey Jeff,


Thanks bro it all comes from you guys, sharing your experience.

Ben
Quoting benji533
Just scrolled back on the 4H chart and found this within one minute.

Ben
Go, Ben, Go.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,285
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:20am Sep 8, 2009 3:20am
Quoting Cyrus
How then can we have a better gauge that the PA is a result of new positions being initiated? In general, when there’s PA + strong confluence. Best if its in the direction of the trend.
Strong confluence of support and resistance are watched by everyone. The big boys throwing around a mountain of money a pop also see this and likely put on their positions around these levels too.
That's the stuff that drives prices: New orders coming into the market from the sidelines.

Not any ol’ confluence.
Strong confluence.
Stuff you can see...
Great post Cyrus.

Your right, Josh's post is mega awesome.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,286
  • Edited 3:49am Sep 8, 2009 3:37am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting jarroo
Great post Cyrus.

Your right, Josh's post is mega awesome.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
agreed. that should be the default for 'im new, how did I pa?!'

(Its now also preserved in my vault of awesomeness' notebook, so that even a nuclear war cant erase it)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #43,287
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:50am Sep 8, 2009 3:50am
Any body looking for this pullback.
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  • #43,288
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:51am Sep 8, 2009 3:51am
Quoting joelcf
agreed. that should be the default for 'im new, how did I pa?!'
lol. One could stay on the 1st post of this thread for months. And do just fine.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,289
  • Sep 8, 2009 4:34am Sep 8, 2009 4:34am
Quoting nasir.khan
Any body looking for this pullback.
Hi,

I am a bit confused here. I can see serious Resistance ere for an up move. Could you please help me out wiht this?

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Kind Regards zol
  • #43,290
  • Sep 8, 2009 4:45am Sep 8, 2009 4:45am
Quoting zoli
Hi,

I am a bit confused here. I can see serious Resistance ere for an up move. Could you please help me out wiht this?

Attachment
This is based on 1H or 4H in the first place so i will watch out for my Target in same TF.

I don't see much in way until 1.4500 and 1.4612 (61.8%).
  • #43,291
  • Sep 8, 2009 4:54am Sep 8, 2009 4:54am
Quoting jarroo
The Aud/Jpy and Nzd/Jpy bullish PBs are at a swing high or at a very shallow swing low. Although they could be tradable if managed carefully, I would pass on these.

The Cad/Jpy and the Gbp/Jpy are at deeper swing Lows along with the confluencing PPZ and Fib retracement level. All good and better setups, but their size are a bit small for my liking.

I like the Cad/Jpy. Price broke the two PPZ levels of 85.00 & 86.00 and seems to be retest the 86.00 to continue upward. Nice 2 Day PB that broke nicely.
thanks for that jarroo. All those weekly pins have been on my mind and wasnt sure which ones were the better ones to take. Im still unsure if to take them off the weekly chart as I am scared about the daily trends being down and taking shorts off a 4 hour if the pa occurs. Maybe I should just stick to the weekly and daily and dont even bother with 4 hour... I know you guys say stick to daily and weekly for a reason but I always end up making a simple thing complicated lol. ughh

anyone have any opinions on the G/U pin on the weekly?
its not really the best pin as the wick is about the same as the body. If I had a live account I dont know if i would be so happy taking this trade although it seems to be moving up at the moment.
  • #43,292
  • Edited 5:57am Sep 8, 2009 5:42am | Edited 5:57am
Hi All,
First to say thanks for all the posts I get to read here, this thread has really taken me a long way in my trading. I don't get to post much here or the PF due to time limitations but I do keep up with the reading.

Anyway some of this post may sound a little strange- I am still on the demo process and have been doing well, improving month by month. For August I was pleased to be up 16% demoing daily and 4 hour. It felt good to be developing the ability to sit and wait to spot a winning trade and set a target / stop loss that works. I'd like to soon start with a relatively small real account.

Well last Friday, for whatever reason I do not know, maybe in an attempt to establish how far I had come since my earlier trading days, I actively decided to break all the rules for a day (which was NFP day to compound things).
I decided to trade shotgun style not sniper style,
I traded too many lots.
I didnt wait for perfect PA entries. Or any, even not perfect.
I used some sort of gut instinct that I imagine equated roughly to my entries / exits when I first started trading.
And I lost. Every trade lost and went against me. I saw my profits begin to dwindle.
So to get back to where I was and get even I tried revenge trading. When I thought a loser would retrace, I doubled up twice as many lots to get my cash back and win some more.
Of course this didnt work either. I lost double. big time. Half of my months 16% gain was lost in little more than an afternoon.
I know its only a demo account but I felt terrible to be losing my hard earned gains.


So what have I learnt from this day of weird demo so far.... a few obvious but basic things really hit home when I had this experience.....
1. the Price Action techniques James teaches here all work extremely well and I can never let go of them and think I know another better way or can manage without them.
Not for a minute.

2. Big losses mess with your reasoning and trading. James refers to this in post 1.
Since Friday I have lost my trading balance and focus.
Partly through losing too much in my account - it makes me want to over trade. The big loss itself is affecting my trading.
Partly through kind of getting out of the practice of being a patient sniper.
It easy to lose patience and hard to get back on track with it.

3. I'm so glad I did this while only on demo and not using and losing real money. I hope I did it out of some genuine motivation to see how far my trading has come, and what the difference is being
a sniper to a shotgun trader.
And I hope I do not have a self destructive streak.
Losing on a big scale feels horrible...I can see why a BE trade is a success.

The light at the end of the tunnel is that I know I can get back on track. I know what to do. August still was not a losing month, September is still open to question.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #43,293
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:18am Sep 8, 2009 6:18am
Hi Rik

First - let me say I am glad you had this experience. Being up 16% for August was some fine work. Killing it off in one morning was superior.

Now you know why it is stressed to be solidly profitable at least 3 to 6 months in demo - because if yo cannot do it there, you will not do it live.

Consider this a sign post as to where you are today. Based on what I read below, you are getting close, but days like this one disastrous day have to become a thing of the past.

Keep at it and work on that all important self control. And please, figure out why you did this in the first place.

Quoting rikrok
Hi All,
First to say thanks for all the posts I get to read here, this thread has really taken me a long way in my trading. I don't get to post...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #43,294
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:40am Sep 8, 2009 6:40am
Quoting joelcf
I generally dont use their charting too much - I pass the data through to ninjatrader and use that for charting/trading, but it isnt too bad. You could definitely trade from it and be happy.

It's a step above the rubbish that most brokers give you, but it cant hold a candle to Tradestation.



lol. That's a long, complex question that far smarter people than me have tried to answer and not been able to.

Figures suggest somewhere around 75-90% of activity is non-deliverable (ie, the end user is trading the movement in the currency and never...
Thanks for that Joel .

Hmmm, I guess it really is hard to quantify considering the different labels a person could put on the different actions . . . .

I will make a note of that paper and read it when the market decides to slow down a bit hehe.
  • #43,295
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:44am Sep 8, 2009 6:44am
Hi rikrok, you are not alone. Same thing is happening to me. I was demoing the pinbar on dailies and weekly for last two months with quite impressive results (for me anyway ). Almost any pinbar that I took gave me profits, be that a grade B/ C / D pinbar.

So I decided to go live this month (I know, I should demo for at least 3 months), and guess what. From four pinbar trades that I took, only one gave me profits. In fact, I was just closing my third loss trades for this month as I am writing this. I am telling you, this is really a horrible feeling. My account is now down 2%. Well on the positive side though, I guess it's better to experience this when we are first starting out to trade live where the stake is still small, than later on.

For other seniors, do you guys ever experience the same thing?

I know that we should be picky and only take the A trades, but why there are some months that feel so easy to trade pinbar and some months that most of us will experience loss? As for this September, is it because due to it being "holiday" month and we do not have enough volatility to trade?

Really appreciate if somebody could enlighten me on this subject and maybe share some experience. Thx
  • #43,296
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:44am Sep 8, 2009 6:44am
Quoting zoli
Cool this one Ben!

Thank you for sharing so others, like me, can learn from it (applies to all your posts).

thx
Hey zoli,

Thanks for your kind words
James and Mike are giving so much for free...so if my posts can help someone I'm glad.

Just this question: Once this 8500 is broken as it is, it does have a high potential to act as support from now on, hasnt it?
Yep

Umm...not so cool trade...it was pretty stuck yesterday.
But now it's cool stop at BE.

Quoting jarroo
Go, Ben, Go.

Jim
Hey there buddy

Ben
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  • #43,297
  • Sep 8, 2009 7:14am Sep 8, 2009 7:14am
Quoting benji533
Hey zoli,

Thanks for your kind words
James and Mike are giving so much for free...so if my posts can help someone I'm glad.

Just this question: Once this 8500 is broken as it is, it does have a high potential to act as support from now on, hasnt it?
Yep

Umm...not so cool trade...it was pretty stuck yesterday.
But now it's cool stop at BE.

Hey there buddy

Ben

hey Ben, did u get any of this....lol
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #43,298
  • Sep 8, 2009 7:29am Sep 8, 2009 7:29am
Quoting StoragePro
Hi Rik

Keep at it and work on that all important self control. And please, figure out why you did this in the first place.
Storage Pro,
Many thanks for your feedback ....I've just been out for a walk in the late summer London sunshine to reflect on why I may have done this, aside from the conscious reasons given in the previous post I suspect there was some unconscious reasons at play.

I work in a very rule bound regulated environment, doing things by the book is everything, so following trading rules should not be a dificulty to me.

However, I also have a somewhat rebellious nature at times, so enjoy subverting rules on occasions, when I get the chance to get away with it. And winning whilst subverting the rules can be a part of the game.(As a lawyer by training it comes as 2nd nature to attempt this now and then)

I think you can see where this is leading... I know this is clearly not a trait to allow into my trading.

This little escapade has at least alerted me to this so it has been worthwhile.
If, when I go live I ever find this urge arising, I'll know its time to turn to back to demo for a while again.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #43,299
  • Sep 8, 2009 7:36am Sep 8, 2009 7:36am
Quoting squeezy
hey Ben, did u get any of this....lol
Hey squeezy,

I was all day at school...so missed it

Check out the first example chart on this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42465
it was pending on my watch list for a long time now.

Great trade mate

Ben
  • #43,300
  • Sep 8, 2009 7:52am Sep 8, 2009 7:52am
Quoting nasir.khan
Any body looking for this pullback.
Hey bro,

Seems like many long term pending patterns on my list broke today.

I saw several people here trying to trade that consolidation box during the week - hope none of them loosed. I bet you that this area killed many traders this month LOL..

There was no pullback, so I'm not sure if I will take it if it will retrace now. I am interested to see a nice pin or BUOB off that round number. There will be too much traffic to pass if we will retrace too deep.

Ben
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