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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,461
  • Edited 9:10pm Sep 7, 2009 8:59pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting yen44x
Another advantage I see with a reduced SL is the huge improvement in R:R.

Just as an example, on the attached chart is a sample week with a box of 120 pips. With a 30% stop loss, my R:R at TP1 is over 3:1. To equal that RR using a full stop loss, I'd have to hit TP3.

What it means simply is that even if the reduced SL is hit more often, I don't have to be right on my trades as often either.
****************************************

Yen Man, that is Cool man.

Exactly my thinking with your excellent example.

People, re-read Yen's post. Absolutley correct. Everyone wants to see the biggest profit. My goal is to minimize my loss, increase my RR and then be happy with the LESS RISK PROFIT. Sorry for the emphasis but that's what this whole thing is about. Make money with minimum risk. I really don't care if people make more money over the short term. I care about RR and making money consistently with AS LITTLE RISK AS POSSIBLE. Remember, this is a HIGH RISK, highly leverage investment.

I remember an old movie, but don't quote me, but I think it was called "Downhill Racer". Not one of your Oscar nominee Movies but there was a line in this movie that was profound that I always remembered. I think a Father or Grandfather was talking to the son (Grandson) about his ambition to be the best downhill skier in the world. The father (Grandfather) said, "no matter how good you are, there will always be someone better!!".

I don't ever take away from the people who want to be the best, but these forums are full of people who do better, create code better, have a system better, trade a system better, than anyone else.

My position in life is real simple. If I can be rich (but not the richest) using a system that gives me a great, consistent return, (with minimal risk), that may well be 25% or more less than the best, I DON'T CARE. I am happy to be rich. I do not have to be the best, the fastest, the sharpest or whatever - rich is fine.

This system with my quick SL plus my re-entry at 25 pips below (above) my SL close where I deem it appropriate is working just fine. Unfortunately I do not have the rules strictly written so they can be programmed. Over the last two weeks I have completely cut back my trading to the minimum entries as the market is weird/confused/erratic/non-directional or whatever you want to call it.

I have made several hundred percent using my modification of Aces system on a Live Dukascopy account where I do not have an EA to trade for me but I can still sleep (sometimes).

If you read all these entries on this forum (and I have read everyone) they all worry about the right entry and then finishing for the week if they are SL out. Everyone feels cheated when they don't do as well as the best poster on the system. Do not compete. Stay with your system. If you see something that looks goods modify your system on your live account only after you have done many many tests on a demo account. Do NOT think you failed because someone else did better. IT DOES NOT MATTER.

Sorry. I love Yes's input an got into the lecture mode. One more thing.

I expect some really serious movement in the next month or two for GBPJPY so be prepared - again IMHO.

Thanks Yen, for your input. Excellent. Love it.

Dave R.
  • #3,462
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:00pm Sep 7, 2009 9:00pm
The buffer Ace's advise is 20 p + Spread..

Im'not out my self

I'm in short for two trades of egal lot (winnning + 45p ) and going to (if would like to..) take profit at TP1 witch is faraway from now to 48P, for one of them, and for the second , degrease the SL to BE, so Free for target.
  • #3,463
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:07pm Sep 7, 2009 9:07pm
Hi,

While we consider and learn more about Ace's strategy I was wondering if anyone would like to verify some statistics I found on data based on Alpari UK for 424 weeks beginning 07/23/2001 till 09/04/2009. I found that Monday's formed the Swing Low (if its a Buy/up week) or Swing High (if its a Sell/down week), 58.7% of the time. While Tuesdays were 11.6% (neglecting 4 Tuesdays where the retrace beyond Monday's high/low had occurred AFTER the extreme of the week had already formed on Monday). Wednesdays were 7.8% (neglecting 11 Wednesdays where the extreme of the week had already occured on Monday or Tuesday). Thursdays had 2.1% (neglecting 20 Thursdays where the extreme of week had already formed on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday). Friday had 0.9% (neglecting 45 Fridays where extreme had already occured on the previous four days).

Mondays are certainly statistically significant, forming 58.7% of the weeks swing low or high. On the other hand the data seem to show that if we place our stops at the low 1st bar on Monday (if Buy) or high of first bar (if Sell) then the chance of success is about 60%. This is of course neglecting the cases if the move on Monday is great and strong in one direction and our TP1, TP2, TP3 or TP4 are hit quickly before any correction happens before the extreme of the week is reached.


Regards,

Dave
  • #3,464
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:18pm Sep 7, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting davelochen
Hi,

While we consider and learn more about Ace's strategy I was wondering if anyone would like to verify some statistics ..

Dave
Of course, thank you for that.
  • #3,465
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:22pm Sep 7, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting danc
GBPagainst yen and Ud.. both hitting resistance on 4 hr trend lines horoz lines and 50/618/% fibo points...the Ud cross resistance area is stronger..watching the 5close..6 open emas on the hr to give me short enter point with stop above 4 hr hi..
short both as per the above..looking to add to cable .. currently up abt 150+
  • #3,466
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:33pm Sep 7, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting Pharoah
We all know this year has been exceptional for this system, try doing that in 2002 and 2005, This is what we're trying to resolve, not this years results, set and forget works this year, but will it next year? My advice, do NOT work on a system that uses from jan 2009 till now, specially when it's this particular breakout system.
Pharoah.

Remember that, I believe it was 1998, or something like that were Forex was actually opened to the public. It really never got serious, as far as the public (volume) was concerned, until about 2004, 2005 (again with any significant volume).

It is now freaking huge. There are FX mutual funds, trading funds, combined funds that are trading billions - billions besides all our global "little guys".

To compare this market to the 1900 to 2004 forex market, year by year, is to compare model T ford to the Toyoto Hybrid. You are comparing A to M or N or O. This is a massive upswing curve. We haven't even reached P or Q. We have not even seen the volumes that will come.

This is huge. Do not look back. IMHO.

Dave R.
  • #3,467
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:57pm Sep 7, 2009 9:57pm
Quoting droland
Pharoah.

Remember that, I believe it was 1998, or something like that were Forex was actually opened to the public. It really never got serious, as far as the public (volume) was concerned, until about 2004, 2005 (again with any significant volume).



This is huge. Do not look back. IMHO.

Dave R.
i agree i have been preaching the same thing I am only testing my strategy to 06 with some random months in 04-05.
markets are growing every year even more so then years before (volume wise)
  • #3,468
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:06pm Sep 7, 2009 10:06pm
I readed some post and make me a resume of all the system and I liked it, my question is if there is any EA available for this system? to back and forward test to see exactly how it is going and too see if I can optimizate it.
Thanks
  • #3,469
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:09pm Sep 7, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting droland
****************************************

Yen Man, that is Cool man. Exactly my thinking with your excellent example.

People, re-read Yen's post....
Dave,

First of all . . . it's great to see you back. In a sea of sometimes pointless posts (yes, I realize most of them were mine), you have always made great sense and I have learned a ton from you, and I hope others take advantage of what you've shared here.

Secondly, any ideas I have I stole fair and square from the great minds on this thread, but I'm always willing to share the credit if the idea doesn't work.

Seriously, it was you who opened my eyes to the concept of not blindly following the system. That's not a swipe at Ace. It's a fantastic system as he introduced it, but Ace himself has acknowledged the modifications and potential improvements to the system. So, thanks for that and kudos to all for their "two pips" worth.

Yen
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,470
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:11pm Sep 7, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting Pharoah
Ouch, 100% SL, I hope the price turns in your favor. I'm expecting the first days of this week to be ranging, due to Labor Day holiday. But I could be wrong.
Its August. We have discussed this way way back. Patience. Play but play conservative and wait for the better markets. I believe they are coming IMHO.

Dave R.
  • #3,471
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:14pm Sep 7, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting yen44x
I grew up on a dairy farm . . . anyone who's been around cows knows there's plenty of crap for everyone, so I just try to share it.
Oh sure. I thought you were a burro man. Now I feel used.\

dr
  • #3,472
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:16pm Sep 7, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting droland
Oh sure. I thought you were a burro man. Now I feel used.

dr
After looking at nothing but cows in my formative years, it was love at first sight with the burros.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,473
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:18pm Sep 7, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting yen44x
No offense, fed, but this kind of advice, at least to me, always sounds better in advance. Then, it sounds like you know what you're talking about instead of rubbing it in.

I'm not saying you're wrong . . . that's just how it comes across to me.
I said this before but I will say it again. Why do I like you so much?

dr
  • #3,474
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:20pm Sep 7, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting droland
I said this before but I will say it again. Why do I like you so much?

dr
And I said it before and I'll say it again . . . that's something only your therapists can answer. I just hope they're able to help.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,475
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:21pm Sep 7, 2009 10:21pm
Fellow traders . . . what other thread offers you this kind of insight on cows, burros, and crap, as well as a mention here and there on trading this fantastic system?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,476
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:26pm Sep 7, 2009 10:26pm
just wondering, has anyone noticed a decline in activity around late august early sept on an almost yearly basis?
  • #3,477
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:27pm Sep 7, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting Pharoah
just wondering, has anyone noticed a decline in activity around late august early sept on an almost yearly basis?
Definitely . . . all I do from late August until early September is lay around and drink beer . . . almost no activity at all.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,478
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:29pm Sep 7, 2009 10:29pm
Quoting yen44x
Definitely . . . all I do from late August until early September is lay around and drink beer . . . almost no activity at all.
has anyone wondered why, or anyone know why? I have a theory. And I meant Market wise
  • #3,479
  • Edited 10:36pm Sep 7, 2009 10:31pm | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting droland
****************************************

Yen Man, that is Cool man.

Exactly my thinking with your excellent example.

People, re-read Yen's post. Absolutley correct. Everyone wants to see the biggest profit. My goal is to minimize my loss, increase my RR and then be happy with the LESS RISK PROFIT. Sorry for the emphasis but that's what this whole thing is about. Make money with minimum risk. I really don't care if people make more money over the short term. I care about RR and making money consistently with AS LITTLE RISK AS POSSIBLE. Remember,...

Dave are you using a % of the box for your SL? If so can you share what %s you're using and how you arrived at them? I used 80 pips this week which works out I guess to 70% of the box and was stopped out on the long. I'm thnking 50% may make more sense. If price retraces to 50% of the box then it seems likely it will go to the end of the box. I don't have stats to support that though.

One more thought: It might make sense to see how often the first breakout trade went in the direction of a 200 ema or some comparable trend indicator. I'm thinking that the only thing better than limiting the downside in taking a trade that goes south is avoiding taking that trade to begin with.
Sandy
  • #3,480
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:32pm Sep 7, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting Pharoah
has anyone wondered why, or anyone know why? I have a theory. And I meant Market wise
Sorry, Pharoah, I knew what you meant but had to get the joke out of my system first. I will now defer to traders who want to share their theories.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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