The System II (Yes with irony)

hey fx i m keen also, the last couple months of my trading has improved 10 fold because of ur help & others, the charts live u guys share are awesome because its real time, its just a matter of taking every shot & dealing with ur trade without emotions.
i for 1 am very grateful for ur help & all others , its a great thread that continues to grow
cheers andrew

FX,

You and half a dozen others have kept FEB's legacy alive on this thread. And what a sterling effort it's been.
I am grateful for this thread's lessons. Everytime I read this thread, a fresh nugget sparkles.
Would love your continued participation and guidance.
Keep well and take care.

Ether

Hi Fx....
I don't even have to say....
I'm also very interested, as usual, to hear what you have to say....
As I said many times, everytime You, Dare, Moneda (the V.I.P on the threat), and of course Feb, explain something in detail... It's the best opportunity to get a "runner" on my learning process....
So then, ears and eyes open to try to absorb everyword from you....

Hi Paul,

I second your question as well.... This issue, sometimes, also makes me doubt a little bit....

From my humble opinion, it all has to do with expectancy...

In the examples you show in your charts, I would chose #2....
My thoughts for that would be:
As you draw your examples, there are 2 little fractals under where you could trail you stop loss, trailing it as soon as the high is taken...
Apart from that, it seems you would have taken a good an early entry, so you would have room enough to let price breaths a little bit......
As the mini-range was formed, it is a matter of brakecting it...
If price breaks to the upside, you are already in the trade and going for the runner, and if it breaks to the downside, you close the previous trade and go for a down run.....

But as I said before, only my humble thought....

Very interesting question so far, let's see what Fx point out on this topic...

P.D: Congrats to you... You are doing a hard job, and improving and growing a lot, as far as your everyday trades show, Paul.....

I have just one question if I may and this concerns the exit .

If you see my chart I have given two examples: the first is what I am doing, which is closing on hesitation during a significant pulback and then attempt to go higher, the second gives more time , there are several pace you could come out there, but price in the end heads higher again, just wondering what you think about it.

I guess what I am asking is how much space do you give price and how much time to do you it in these cases. ??

Cheers[/quote]

Hi Paul,

Your diligence, clear charts and explanations of your trades are a great tool for all of us to study and give different perspectives that in the end give us an excellent opportunity to evaluate our own expectancy skills. THANK YOU.

Regarding your last two charts...let me give you how I think I would have dealt with them:

Chart#1.... I would have drawn a horizontal line five pips (-/+) at the bottom of the first pullback and exited if price broke through that level.

Chart#2...Here you have price ranging and again I would have placed a horizontal line a few pips below and exited if there was a breakout.

I would also take in consideration the time of day or the release of major economic news... During low volatility I may just close my trade and take a break.

Time and space is in the mind's eye of the beholder

Hope this helps

Good luck.

Hi Jplo

Thanks for your comments and ideas, what you are saying certainly makes sense. One thing I didn`t mention is that in my observation after such a long runner, if price does not pull back significantly but starts to meander a little as per chart 2 I have observed that this relates to the market accepting price at these new levels. Without getting into prediction which is onbviously not what we do here, the longer price goes sideways the more chance I have of it breaking again to the upside. You can say that people are not taking their money off the table in fact.

Hey Moneda, What nice words, thanks !

You hit it on the nail as regards time of day. If we take Fridays example, time was running out for more moves as New York was coming to a close, so yes I agree totally this is an important factor.

Thanks for your feedack ! Very useful.

Hi Paul,
Good question.. but I must say my answer can not be very scientific.. as you all know there is not set on stone rule about anything we do here.. however, I have made the effort to put things to words with structure and come up with some details and guidance so you guys practise in the right path, then eventually get things done based on your instinct and intution..
from knowing me what I do mostly is what you have displayed on your second figure.. simply is expectancy and sticking to my #1 & #2 approach..
How much space? i give it as much as up to the last fcr..(no more than that)
how much time? expectancy= speed and rhythm..

Guys.. there are two situtations that must occur before I bailout early.. one.. when price is turning against me with very rapid speed.. two.. when price is really super stalling more than usual..
otherwise i stick to my plan..

I hope it helps..

It does indeed, thanks.

Ok guys.. this post is in regard to my 4654 post.. it looks like there is plenty of interests as i expected so, due to the fact that we got such a elite group of people in this thread.. My kind of people.. dedicated, hardworkers and student of the game.. Bravo to all.

I mentiond in my post that last week was a great one for me as should have been for most of you.. i made way above my normall avg profit and most weeks and recent months have been pretty much the same give or take..

so I pulled some stats for my self awarness and you guys aswell based on last weeks results (bear in mind that i am not much of a stats guy)
if you would have honored..
1)taking every shot.. and
2)playing expectancy correctly (#1&2).. then
there was roughly a total of 32 enteris with no better than a 50% hit ratio (who cares) = roughly to 500 max possible gained pips with 6 possible runners.. that you could have taken advantage of.. I end up with 380 of that 500.. in my book thats pretty good (I did miss one runner though..)
to match or better such success in a consisten basis is not that difficult..
I broke down the ingredients to three parts in this order..
Technical.. Execution.. Psychological.
pretty much the same as every other system with only difference that ours is much simpler to follow and ita not a system.. its your naked eyes getting the work done and eventually your intution (upon development process)

First.. you get your tech right.. your setup..
*for the tech part is very simple.. all you need to do is to draw your FCR's correctly and immediately as soon as they are formed so you can stay close to PA.. (refer to post 3420 about fcr)

second.. then you execute
*for Execution part is also very simple..
enter: each and every FCR..
exit: play expectancy #1 & #2.. (refer to post 4219)

third.. once your in you get your psychy right..
* for the psychy part is simple aswell..
first part) just be patience once you have executed a entery correctly.. wait for the true color of the price to show up.. perhaps wait for the fcr to form or how it reacts to the previous fcr.. (fakeouts and semi fakouts are given and they happen 2/3 of the times)..
second part) don't panic.. spread the load wisely, will lead to not being under pressure so as a result, less chance of panicing and you led things to develop.. (mostly will develop in your favor, trust me..)

now, the stuff above is nothing new to you.. right? and its not new to me neither now or last week or last month.. so..
its a matter of sticking with your gun and executing it religiously..
it's matter of keeping a few notes close to your heart and living by it.. like your bible..
Thats what i do best..

so if you were expecting that i spit out some kind of a magical thing.. then i must say sorry brothers.. thats not what this thread and style of trading is all about.. I know you concur..
but at the same time i gave you plenty to work with if you really absurbed this lil post..

sorry for misspells, kamas or missed words.. I am a bit tired and its 2am my time.. I wanted to get this done so we set food into the week with something helpfull and positive..

now..
PS)there is a important detail about fcr that i have not mentioned up to now for a reason.. and some of you might have figured it out on your own by now (my plan to make you figure out on your own)..
anyhow now its the time.. but, I am going to put it out as a question at first and see where your development process are by your replies to correct answer.. its simple but super powerfull..

Question..
When your fcr's gets to close to eachother what does that tell you about PA? ...... and what your next move should be?......
two words..

I am going to answer it, couple of hours after NY open.. bcz I want to see what everyones replies are..(please think about it and your limited to one post)

see you before londi session..

price is in consolidation... and breakout imminent??. so put entries orders in place and wait??
Cheers

You could play it either way and still make money in the long run... but i am going to say this...

dont trade

Wait for a significant breakout (decent swing) and then start trading the breakouts.

Cheers,

the chop monster is in play & we should now be looking for a bracket trade,
great post by the way fx

Andrew and others,

You may want to consider that for the most part Feb recommends that the best time for trading his approach is during the London and NY sessions. You will also find that that the first few hours of each session are usually the best times to find fresh and active swings (1-2-3) and/or FCRs. This is when price action most likely will give the volatility that one is looking for.

Good luck,

All,

Sorry for a very dumb question, but you know when someone says "its in post 12345" is there a way to actually go to that post without randomly selecting pages then trying to find the post in there(by then taking a estimated guess to go forward or backward which is what I have been doing , takes awhile) Not complaining, just wanting to know if anybody who is a long term user of FF knows how to skip to a post quickly. I havent been able to figure it out yet in over a year

good morning you all,
I got this short trade going on at the moment.. lets see what happens..
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

I had an order for the short there too, looks like a fakeout, as I write now 1 pip away from the stop and reverse point.

Hope you had a good weekend FX>

don't you just love it, how fakeouts hardly led you down.. lol.. now playing #2.. if it hit my sl so be it.. then I be long..

hey mon, i was only answering fx s question on his post, i wasnt referring 2 2days market , sorry for the confussion
andrew.

It really is a number games.

Just keep rinsing and repeating.