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Tony's Two Candle trading system

  • #241
  • Jul 16, 2009 7:42pm Jul 16, 2009 7:42pm
The rules aren't any different than Tony's rules, except for the addition of the 12 Hi/Low EMAs, PSAR (with a setting of .03), AO, and ADX (with a setting of 2).

For going long: Close of last bar is above the 12 Hi EMA, price > PSAR, AO of 1 hour ago is > AO of 2 hours ago, and ADX of 1 hour ago is > ADX of 2 hours ago.

For going short: Close of last bar is below the 12 Low EMA, price < PSAR, AO of 1 hour ago is < AO of 2 hours ago, and ADX of 1 hour ago is > ADX of 2 hours ago.

In other news, my EA made 3 losing trades that wiped out all my gains...so perhaps this isn't my holy grail after all. I have it set to make only one trade per day now (...greed is the downfall of this trading method!).

Optimal trading time for that one trade appears to be from 9:00 am to 3:00 pm EST.
  • #242
  • Jul 17, 2009 6:54pm Jul 17, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting Danoid
The rules aren't any different than Tony's rules, except for the addition of the 12 Hi/Low EMAs, PSAR (with a setting of .03), AO, and ADX (with a setting of 2).

For going long:...
well thanks for sharing Dan, appreciate it!


Damn man, 3 trade wiped out all your winners? What the hell is your RR? Where are you placing your stop?
-2 SCOOPS OF PROFITABLE RAISINS
  • #243
  • Jul 17, 2009 9:38pm Jul 17, 2009 9:38pm
I was exiting when the PSAR reverses, the EA wouldn't have worked if I used Tony's stop method.
  • #244
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:30am Aug 16, 2009 10:30am
Dear Tony Trader.

I have following the thread and hopefully i am right on this.

1st candle at 1st hour is bullish,so the 2nd hour candle should be bull..am i right?..so when to enter position,at the beginning of the 2nd hour?...

please explain..thanks
  • #245
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:59am Aug 20, 2009 2:59am
Your post was the first in this thread in a month. This usually means the thread is dying or already dead for some reason..... most often from poor trading results.

I was attracted by the logic behind this very simple trade; and if it proved to be consistently profitable on a monthly basis, it would give me another trade trigger compatible with my overall trading strategy..... that being to bank small but quick profits enroute to creating FREE (no-risk!) trades that can be left (with minimal management) to run for hours, days, weeks, even months.

You might also want to take a look at the DIBS thread in the FF trading system list. The DIBS mention is FYI; please, no DIBS discusation on Tony's thread!

"Go forth and multiply"..... your profits that is!
  • #246
  • Sep 6, 2009 12:07pm Sep 6, 2009 12:07pm
I think this system has some potential on various time frames and we should resurrect this thread for some additional study.

Just a thought.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #247
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:01pm Sep 6, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting jtrade
relevant to this (and other) threads...

(quick post as must not get caught at the computer on a Sunday afternoon...)...

...thanks for the thread, Tony Two Bars.
Forex Report - Predicting Price movement.pdf (642.5 KB,
thanks 4 pdf

PREDICTING PRICE ACTION: USDJPY 15 pip trigger
When price moves 15 pips in either direction, what is the probability that it will continue to the following values with the currency and interval shown?
For example, when USDJPY moves 15 pips up or down on the 5 minute interval, the probability that it will continue to +80 (+65 net) is 4.0%.
PAIR: USDJPY


INTERVAL: 60 MINUTE CHART
+20
+30
+40
+50
+60
+70
+80
+90
+100+
91.6%
72.9%
58.9%
47.8%
37.4%
30.5%
24.3%
19.0%
14.9%

  • #248
  • Sep 6, 2009 5:05pm Sep 6, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting johnedoe
I think this system has some potential on various time frames and we should resurrect this thread for some additional study.

Just a thought.
  • #249
  • Sep 7, 2009 8:57am Sep 7, 2009 8:57am
Quoting fxxx
thanks 4 pdf

PREDICTING PRICE ACTION: USDJPY 15 pip trigger
When price moves 15 pips in either direction, what is the probability that it will continue to the following values with the currency and interval shown?
For example, when USDJPY moves 15 pips up or down on the 5 minute interval, the probability that it will continue to +80 (+65 net) is 4.0%.
PAIR: USDJPY


[left][b][size=2]INTERVAL: 60...
Could you clear this up
are you saying there is a 91.6% chance of positive pips after the pair moves 15 pips
so if I place a buy stop 15 pips at previous high or sell stop previous low I
have a 91.6% of making pips on a 60 min chart or 5 min chart

just trying to understand what you are saying here
  • #250
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:45am Sep 7, 2009 9:45am
I would think trading with the trend should significantly improve the returns of this system.............
Then use a manually trailing stop to the previous bars high or low depending of course on the direction of the trade.

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/9...ncapture1g.png
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #251
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:52am Sep 7, 2009 9:52am
Just open the PDF-file, mentioned there.
Anyway, they used some rules during their tests, not all candles were counted.


Quoting dryclean
Could you clear this up
are you saying there is a 91.6% chance of positive pips after the pair moves 15 pips
so if I place a buy stop 15 pips at previous high or sell stop previous low I
have a 91.6% of making pips on a 60 min chart or 5 min chart

just trying to understand what you are saying here
  • #252
  • Sep 7, 2009 9:57am Sep 7, 2009 9:57am
Years of experience with a similar method - sounds great!
Could you provide some details about how you set SL / TP / BE?

Thanks!



Quoting pimind
I have not read the whole thread so this might have already been covered.

I have used a similar system for years in forex and other markets ....
  • #253
  • Oct 29, 2009 3:04pm Oct 29, 2009 3:04pm
This still works great!
  • #254
  • Edited 8:15pm Nov 7, 2009 11:39am | Edited 8:15pm
Hello all,

Just thought I would drop a note and say thanks to Tony for such a simple and effective system and sharing it to the FF community.

I am using this system with some small changes and am having a reasonable amount of success thus far.

As far as the Pairs I am using I started with uds/jpy as Tony suggested and then moved to eur/jpy as it seemed to have more price movement with out an unmanageable amount of volatility.

Time frames? I have been trading this method beginning at the Asian open and ending around mid way through the us session..

I use an initial 15 pip stop and take profit depends on PA. And its important to mention that the Stop depends on PA also.. Yes, initial is 15 pips but if the trade is entered and the PA stalls I will exit at a small loss or small profit..

I also Size my trades according to PA and/or if I recently had a huge winner on a large position.. or a string of 2-3 winners in a row..I will decrease my Size by 2/3..

Thanks again Tony!

399BC
  • #255
  • Nov 14, 2009 10:44pm Nov 14, 2009 10:44pm
Yes, update the community!! I´m late in this post, the party is over...
  • #256
  • Nov 15, 2009 12:21am Nov 15, 2009 12:21am
so, viewing a static chart you will notice 90% of time a 2nd bull bar will have a high 20 pips above the 1st bull bar's high (and vice versa for bear bars), but from a dynamic point of view (looking at tick chart, looking the price in action), what is the chance that the price will hit the 20pips TP instead of the 5~10pips (mental) stop loss?

fact is, SL will be hit more often than the TP bcoz (1) price will likely retrace a bit and testing the breakout and (2) from the distance of the TP and the SL, ie. 20 : 10, it is obvious that chance of SL being hit is 2 times higher than the TP being hit.


Quoting forexisfx
Let say he close the trade when 5-10 pips against him. With the above statement posted by tony , we have a holy grail here isn't it ? 99% winning ratio with TP 10. so it's like 1:1 RR with 99% winning ratio.
  • #257
  • Nov 15, 2009 12:21pm Nov 15, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting jtrade
relevant to this (and other) threads...

(quick post as must not get caught at the computer on a Sunday afternoon...)...

...thanks for the thread, Tony Two Bars.

Hey jtrade, thanks for the link..... interesting info.
  • #258
  • Nov 16, 2009 6:35am Nov 16, 2009 6:35am
Guys,

In this one I could go for some nice pips but I didn't cause the PSAR was against it . Did I do the right thing ?

Please give me your imput .

One more thing. Thanks to Tony for this great thread. It's my first tactic I'll try and for the moment the only problem I found is that the damn broker is acting very late to my requests.

Fahren
Attached Image
  • #259
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:40am Nov 16, 2009 9:40am
You missed 7 trades in the chart you showed us.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #260
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:58am Nov 16, 2009 11:58am
Ignore those trades mate. Just tell me your opinion regarding those 2 candles. Not ignoring PSAR was a good idea ?
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