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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #43,141
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:28pm Sep 4, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting Bryan
Check out this baby. +600 piperoos till we hit the 60ma.

I know, I know. Focus on what you can lose......not on what you can gain.

But it is a beautiful thing.......
Are you looking at the current weekly bar? I do not see a setup from today.
  • #43,142
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:09pm Sep 4, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting james16
knocked me out of my uj trade and i had it around the neck.

im still not going to pay attention to the news.

IM NOT IM NOT IM NOT.

NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER EVER EVER.

its a dead end road and at the end its bleak and the scenery sucks.

trust me.

You could have kept your stop loss at break even (92.00) and you would have been fine, big guy . . . hehehe . . .easy for me to say, my pip size is bit smaller . . .lol

Interesting where Price closed today . . right on your 93.00 you talked about.

All in all, not a bad way to start the weekend, my friend.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,143
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:23pm Sep 4, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting squeezy
did you get in on this one ben
Well, this one did it's work eventually.
Not clear enough for me to take...to be honest.
Nice trade squeezy.

Ben
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  • #43,144
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:35pm Sep 4, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting esbatu
Hi mike, thanks for your reply.

Hi guys,

I am trying to understand the reason for James going long on USD JPY.

From his chart I can see that he take the trade because there are divergence/big round number/double bottom/very tight stop. Are those factors enough to pull the trigger even there is no daily PA present? (Though I do see some pinbar on H4 and H1)

To me, this trade is like catching a falling knife, since the price has been going down from early august. Please feel free to comment.
Thx
A major part of a high quality PA setup is its location with supporting confluences. I believe James saw this level as he has seen it a thousand times before and decided to take low risk "blind" entry at the 92.00.

The 92.00 was a Daily/Weekly PPZ level with MACD divergence as shown on Jim's chart. (Chart 1)

As Jim stresses, we look for these high conflenced areas and use PA formation to confirm our setup. On the 4 hour, show a BUOB. Although the size may not have been the best, everything else pointed to a low risk trade with stops below the 92.00.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,145
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:45pm Sep 4, 2009 5:45pm
hi guys. I was just wondering how I should be looking at this. Im confused again lol. Maybe over thinking again
Ok G/J pin on weekly may not be the best but I know you guys always say trade with the trend. As a rookie I dont really trade 4 hour but I guess you could say gj is ranging on the weekly and the pin may indicate a move up to the top of the range.

But the other train of thought I have is the short term daily trend is down right? A logical place to look for a PA is on a pull back to continue the downtrend on the 4 hour chart.
How do you look at these things when there are a few options.
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  • #43,146
  • Sep 4, 2009 5:53pm Sep 4, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting jarroo
Strong confluenced area.
Take the Eur/Cad for example. We have a strong Daily/ Weekly PPZ level at the 1.5800. Long term EMAs and Fib retracement levels on the Daily. A very stong confluenced area. A low risk, "blind" entry near the 1.5800 would not have been a bad way to go.

There was some PA (Pin Bars) on the 4 hour time frame but nothing that really stands out. The point is that a great location can present a low risk opportunity with a little practise.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,147
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:24pm Sep 4, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting supermatt
hi guys. I was just wondering how I should be looking at this. Im confused again lol. Maybe over thinking again
Ok G/J pin on weekly may not be the best but I know you guys always say trade with the trend. As a rookie I dont really trade 4 hour but I guess you could say gj is ranging on the weekly and the pin may indicate a move up to the top of the range.

But the other train of thought I have is the short term daily trend is down right? A logical place to look for a PA is on a pull back to continue the downtrend on the 4 hour chart.
How...

I like it, Matt.

Yes, it's true that the daily shows a down trend , but we could be in a consolidation period, which Price tends to do most of the time. (as you have said) The Weekly and Daily PBs could be showing us that this consolidation will continue.

The 153.50 looks like the "trouble area", but a nice break could allow us (me) to move to break even and see if she goes to the moon (or the 160.00 lol).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,148
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:02pm Sep 4, 2009 7:02pm
so if price doesnt break that 153 region would you look for shorts if a PA setup occured on the 4 hour as we are in a downtrend on the daily. Seems to be nice place for a pullback. I guess you have to be prepared for any situation
thanks for your input
  • #43,149
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:16pm Sep 4, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting supermatt
so if price doesnt break that 153 region would you look for shorts if a PA setup occured on the 4 hour as we are in a downtrend on the daily. Seems to be nice place for a pullback. I guess you have to be prepared for any situation
thanks for your input
Yes, that 153.50 area looks pretty strong. A nice bearish pitbull PA at that level would be nice.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,150
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:21pm Sep 4, 2009 7:21pm
thanks
  • #43,151
  • Sep 4, 2009 9:23pm Sep 4, 2009 9:23pm
Hi All...

After years of trying to trade smaller time frames and a change to my work schedule I am moving to the higher time frames. I have been reading J16 for a long time but I have never actually put the methodology to the test and tried to trade it. I am trying to re-focus my technical analysis skills on the Daily charts and wondered if I could get some feedback on my EU analysis?

Ok..I have a Daily EU chart. Looks like we have a PPZ @ 1.4300-1.4400 denoted by several rejections of price in that area. I'm not much of a pattern person but I do see what appears to be an ascending triangle in an uptrend which is typically a bullish pattern.

The second chart is still a daily chart but zoomed in to see the last few weeks PA. The last significant PA bar was the BEOB which was a rejection from the PPZ @ 1.4400 level. Since the close of that bar we've had 3 inside bars and none of them have broken out from the BEOB bar. My take on that is we had no follow through to the downside in 3 days so we may see a break to the upside this coming week. Either way, I would wait for some additional PA to confirm direction before entering a position.

Does that sound like a reasonable analysis???

The other question I had was about placing entry orders. Since I trade smaller time frames I use market orders and I am not very comfortable with the idea of placing limited orders, which I will now have to do. Does any one have any advise on over coming this issue? I see that many traders in this thread use various entry techniques, such as the touch and rejection of S&R, pullback to 50/61% level and breaks of TL/S&R. At this point I'm thinking that fib pullbacks many be my best bet for a good entry, but I'd like to hear from some of the experienced traders in the forum.
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  • #43,152
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:32pm Sep 4, 2009 10:32pm
Quoting ozziedave
Either way, I would wait for some additional PA to confirm direction before entering a position.
I checked the chart for you and that is pretty much the sum of it.

The rest of your analysis is fine. Use it later when we get a breakout.

At the moment , if you are looking for a trade on EU daily you will be doing your head in. IMO. As you said... Daily Bearish OB which seems to be getting nowhere. If you switch to a weekly chart you see a bullish OB. There's your conflict.

I'm not meaning to be short with you. Just letting you know that that one sentence of yours is worth a lot. The trade will be easy when it actually comes along.

Pullbacks. ...for your other question.

If we break clear of the current mess (let's say a break upwards), you would wait for a pullback and then wait for PA confirming that the pullback isn't in fact a total failure of the breakout. A successful pullback trade would begin by a strong rejection of the line that was just broken, proving that everyone has switched tactics.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #43,153
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:16pm Sep 4, 2009 11:16pm
Hello guys , could any body guide me to the followed system here in this +2000 pages ( so hard to read them all ) . Regards
Winners never quit and quitters never win. Vince Lombardi
  • #43,154
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:35pm Sep 4, 2009 11:35pm
Sure! Love to help you get started. Start with post number 1 and go from there.

You won't need to devour every post, there is a lot of noise, butyou will see that starting there is where you start.

And post number one is Gospel.
When you figure out.a few things, start putting up charts and we will happily help you along.




Quoting cristiano7
Hello guys , could any body guide me to the followed system here in this +2000 pages ( so hard to read them all ) . Regards
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #43,155
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:07am Sep 5, 2009 12:07am
Quoting TiaForex
PS As Bundy said, once you start paying attention to NFP you see that price action tips its hand before the news hits. It is possible to be correctly positioned using simple PA and that's what I think you did today. Personally that level of unpredictable volatility scares me so I stay out.
It can help point the way. Pre-result is still too unpredictable for me too.

What I was talking about was trading the aftermath. Usually within the first hour after the news there is a good set up off of one of those A1 levels I was talking about. Often a big confluence point.

When the result is released , price will fly through the weak levels without screwing around and stop where all the big orders are. ...sometimes there's a good trade in it.... either a reversal, or a pullback/continuation.

Your not gambling before the news. Just taking advantage of any strong direction that may begin after everyone has taken a deep breath.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #43,156
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:19am Sep 5, 2009 12:19am
Quoting benji533
Well, this one did it's work eventually.
Not clear enough for me to take...to be honest.
Nice trade squeezy.

Ben
yeah, i closed it just above 1.55, when i saw it bouncing on the 1hr tf....
next week should be interesting ...can see some breakout patterns...gu daily is one im watching
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #43,157
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:29am Sep 5, 2009 12:29am
Quoting bundyraider
I checked the chart for you and that is pretty much the sum of it.

The rest of your analysis is fine....
Hi Bundy...
Thanks for the feedback..didn't notice the weekly bullish bar but checked it out and I agree with ya. Higher TF over rides the low TF.
  • #43,158
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:54am Sep 5, 2009 12:54am
Isn't it interesting how we can have different takes?
I had posted
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post3019874 that I liked the look of the GBPJPY daily 2 days ago, but Mike said it was such a no no for him.

I had already taken it anyway, but I still struggle to decide how to manage the stops.... I am used to shorter TF's so I find making and giving back 50+ pips very hard to do.... in the end I put a trailing stop on it and got stopped out with just 19pips.
I find the management the hardest part by far..... I have only banked 70 pips this week, but my 2 main trades are now +160 and +100 from my entries.
Do the successful one's in here play the trade on the same TF as it was opened, i.e. making stops adjustments on a daily basis??

Thanks for any sage advice
Jim


Quoting jarroo
I
I like it, Matt.

Yes, it's true that the daily shows a down trend , but we could be in a consolidation period, which Price tends to do most of the time. (as you have said) The Weekly and Daily PBs could be showing us that this consolidation will continue.

The 153.50 looks like the "trouble area", but a nice break could allow us (me) to move to break even and see if she goes to the moon (or the 160.00 lol).
He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #43,159
  • Sep 5, 2009 1:59am Sep 5, 2009 1:59am
Quoting Jim4x
Isn't it interesting how we can have different takes?
I had posted
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post3019874 that I liked the look of the GBPJPY daily 2 days ago, but Mike said it was such a no no for him.

I had already taken it anyway, but I still struggle to decide how to manage the stops.... I am used to shorter TF's so I find making and giving back 50+ pips very hard to do.... in the end I put a trailing stop on it and got stopped out with just 19pips.
I find the management the hardest part by far..... I have...
Personally, when I trade a daily chart, I manage it only on daily, and ONLY after the bar closes. That is simply because it helps me to prevent emotions. During the day there are tons of noise and up-and-down movements that can freak me out.
At the end of the day I can make a better decision.

Ben
  • #43,160
  • Sep 5, 2009 3:02am Sep 5, 2009 3:02am
Quoting Jim4x
Isn't it interesting how we can have different takes?
I had posted
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post3019874 that I liked the look of the GBPJPY daily 2 days ago, but Mike said it was such a no no for him.

I had already taken it anyway, but I still struggle to decide how to manage the stops.... I am used to shorter TF's so I find making and giving back 50+ pips very hard to do.... in the end I put a trailing stop on it and got stopped out with just 19pips.
I find the management the hardest part by far..... I...
I'm sure Mike didn't like that size of the PB but I bet he loved that location. Although it did break hard with a retest.

I agree with Ben and many others, that you manage the trade on the same time frame that the setup was given. A conflicting signal on a lower time frame may cause confusion. Most likely, the conflicting signal may workout and then continue in the direction of the higher time frame's signal.

I agree, manageing trades can be the hardest part of trading. The key for me is manageing the risk or eliminating it all together. Much like James16 , I will take some off the table and move the other position to break even. Or instead of moving the other position to break even, I will place the stop loss away from break even to allow more room for the trade yet if it gets stopped out I will have net gain or breakeven result.


Making and giving up 50 pips, 100 pips or 450 pips is what you will have to get use to if you want to endure a long term trade. It does make it easier when you know that your worst possible outcome is that you lose zero money.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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