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AUD/USD

  • #2,941
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:37pm Sep 4, 2009 12:37pm
Were Do You guys see this pair going does anyone see a reversal around 0.8565 ????????
  • #2,942
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:37pm Sep 4, 2009 12:37pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting ben10
G_MAN 0.8530 penetrated but not through yet , i think it will crack and shoot another 100 pips to 0.8630 i reduce the short and reenter kiwi long
8630? are you serious? have you had redbull?

if the kiwi hit 69, i am going short too ...
  • #2,943
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:40pm Sep 4, 2009 12:40pm
Closed my short from 8414 at 8413... 1 pip profit lol. Was just showing off to some friends.

Looking to long again at 8400 and short at 8550-60.

Gold still has the possibility of breaking the U$1000 mark so we may still have some room upwards.

Oh and Fammira, high five! We made the new high of eighty-five xD
  • #2,944
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:42pm Sep 4, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting G_Man
i think it will pullback to around 8480 and that would be the end of this week ...
Have a good w/end guys. I am off to bed.

disastrous friday and screwed up w/end.
  • #2,945
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:42pm Sep 4, 2009 12:42pm
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting dnagold
Were Do You guys see this pair going does anyone see a reversal around 0.8565 ????????
ok, thats it, i've heard enough ... i think i am gonna stop reading and go sleep ... i really wanna stick with my plan ...

so have a great weekend guys ... and i will see you on Monday ... and just remember what i said ...
  • #2,946
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:44pm Sep 4, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting G_Man
8630? are you serious? have you had redbull?

if the kiwi hit 69, i am going short too ...
Q from a forex newbie who lost 4 grand :- Are you long or short?

A: I am FLAT.
  • #2,947
  • Sep 4, 2009 12:45pm Sep 4, 2009 12:45pm
ok guys very good run for the kiwi/dollar and aussie/yen to nite, will continue to rescue the aussie/dollar troops next week , have a funtastic weekend everybody
  • #2,948
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:00pm Sep 4, 2009 1:00pm
Now that we are above 85, watch for a break and hold for several days. I would like to see another brief retrace back to 84.50 region to test resistance now turned support before initiating any new longs.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #2,949
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:01pm Sep 4, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting Kristo
My charts show a penetration to 84.69 already and in my mind its just a question of breaking and holding. That may take a few days to pan out, but yes, I do believe AUD/USD is going to advance further after a brief retrace. I should say that I am a Position trader, and am patient in that regard.


(Posted by Kristo last Friday)
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,950
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:06pm Sep 4, 2009 1:06pm
8hr chart.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #2,951
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:58pm Sep 4, 2009 1:58pm
Short at .8513
Cover at .8300
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #2,952
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:40pm Sep 4, 2009 4:40pm
Gosh, looks like we weren't the only ones caught on the wrong side of the AUD move today. I've got a couple of soldiers out there still battling away at 0.8425 and 0.8470 and I've gotta say, it ain't looking purdy for them with US bank holiday on Monday.

I got faked out on my USDX chart - shame on me. And to think I've been a US$ bear for many, many months now.

Hope you guys can survive whatever Monday throws at you.

SSI: Retail AUDUSD Positioning Hits an Extreme after a Late-Session Move Above 0.85
Friday, 04 September 2009 20:33:40 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXCM Sentiment.PNG Size: 52 KB



Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -3.15 as nearly 76% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.57 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.3% lower than yesterday and 20.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 48.1% higher than yesterday and 80.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 19.1% stronger than yesterday and 45.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,953
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:10pm Sep 4, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting Patience
Gosh, looks like we weren't the only ones caught on the wrong side of the AUD move today. I've got a couple of soldiers out there still battling away at 0.8425 and 0.8470 and I've gotta say, it ain't looking purdy for them with US bank holiday on Monday.

I got faked out on my USDX chart - shame on me. And to think I've been a US$ bear for many, many months now.

Hope you guys can survive whatever Monday throws at you.

SSI: Retail AUDUSD Positioning Hits an Extreme after a Late-Session Move Above 0.85
[size=2]Friday, 04...
Hi Patience,

I suspect there are many short-side traders who may be sweating a little bit at the moment and having been caught myself in the past, I understand the angst. I closed my last long at 85.10 as I was really only shooting for the 85.00 psych level and am now flat the AUD. Next week I will be looking for any signs of/the emergence of follow-through strength in the Aussie, although with the Labor Day Holiday on Monday, general USD weakness could prevail momentarily with the real picture emerging later in the week. I certainly won't be jumping the gun, as you are quite right in that "head fakes" are a real possibility, in particular when a currency reaches its technical extremities. For my mind upward momentum in the AUD needs to be convincing for several days before I will consider positioning for a re-entry, and even then it would only be following a retrace to test support. I have not lost my modest bullish bias as yet, but given that my target has been hit it is a time for reappraisal rather than haste.
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #2,954
  • Sep 4, 2009 7:56pm Sep 4, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting Kristo
I suspect there are many short-side traders who may be sweating a little bit at the moment and having been caught myself in the past, I understand the angst.
Hi Kristo

Oh, I so know what you mean. I've been on the wrong side so many times before and you would think I would have learnt by now. I'm not worried about my positions. I'm more annoyed at myself for not having taken advantage of it when I've been a US$ bear for so long and it has treated me fine.

Still great call. My daily candle on USDX is bearish so I'm taking bets on breaking 77.98 support on Monday (even if only for a brief visit to the other side). As you said, Monday won't be true trading conditions with the US out of action so we will see what the rest of the week dishes up.

Good trades to you

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-DAILY-4SEP.PNG Size: 64 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,955
  • Sep 4, 2009 8:47pm Sep 4, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting Patience
Hi Kristo

Oh, I so know what you mean. I've been on the wrong side so many times before and you would think I would have learnt by now. I'm not worried about my positions. I'm more annoyed at myself for not having taken advantage of it when I've been a US$ bear for so long and it has treated me fine.

Still great call. My daily candle on USDX is bearish so I'm taking bets on breaking 77.98 support on Monday (even if only for a brief visit to the other side). As you said, Monday won't be true trading conditions with the US out of action so...

And you too Patience. Interesting USD Chart you have there.

The following GOLD chart is one I keep an eye on as well when I am looking to Carry Trade the AUD long term. Price is currently at a critical level, having just broken recent May '09 Highs. The Feb '09 High was 1005.09 and March '08 shows on my charts as 1032.90. Time will tell whether GOLD has the gumption to continue higher and break the 1000.00 level with strength, but its a significant psych level. If it does.............I would expect AUD to respond positively.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #2,956
  • Sep 5, 2009 2:18am Sep 5, 2009 2:18am
Quoting ben10
where have you been buddy ?
I was out these days so no time to trade

I see more upside for equities with the Dow that should manage to overcome 10,000 points this month

therefore more strenght for AUD and then probably good chances to start shorting around 0,87 with potential for extensions to 0,88 - 89 according to how up equities will manage to go

sure there will be ups and downs, but at this stage I would try to use spikes and further stenght to build short positions rather than buy on weakness for more upside

in case equities will soon correct instead, this break will be a false break and the short signal would be important.
But I still favour some panic buying before we see a reversal

if one is long, I would use spikes to close positions and further strenght to build shorts
if one is short at these levels or slightly below I would consider to wait or cut small losses and wait for a potential top to form

my idea is that we may be not far from a top where it makes most sense to use upspikes to add shorts

I'll follow up and make up my mind better by looking at how the market moves in the next sessions in order to adjust or confirm my idea
yours views for sure truly appreciated
  • #2,957
  • Sep 5, 2009 2:49am Sep 5, 2009 2:49am
Quoting fammira
I was out these days so no time to trade

I see more upside for equities with the Dow that should manage to overcome 10,000 points this month

therefore more strenght for AUD and then probably good chances to start shorting around 0,87 with potential for extensions to 0,88 - 89 according to how up equities will manage to go

sure there will be ups and downs, but at this stage I would try to use spikes and further stenght to build short positions rather than buy on weakness for more upside

in case equities will soon correct instead, this break will...

I am average short at .8450
will cut loss if above .8550 prints
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #2,958
  • Sep 5, 2009 3:04am Sep 5, 2009 3:04am
Big resistance here {look at the monthly} so I will be closing my longs. Looks like divergence to boot.

Probably drop down to .8400 and try again.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,959
  • Edited 8:44am Sep 5, 2009 6:34am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting Kristo
Time will tell whether GOLD has the gumption to continue higher and break the 1000.00 level with strength, but its a significant psych level. If it does.............I would expect AUD to respond positively.
If anything was strange to me about this week, it was Gold. Just sort of made the move without anything fundamentally important happening. From what I read, I know a lot of people have been expecting this move higher in Gold and my email inbox is now being bombarded with articles on if Gold breaks the $1,000 level, it won't be coming back down again (well, not this time so they say).

I see you are based in Melbourne. Love Melbourne - fantastic city and I have had many memorable holidays/weekends there. I have a brother in Brisbane who emailed me the other day saying "As long as you have not lost your job – you would not have noticed any recession over here in Aussie. Things are quite good & the Prime Minister keeps giving people money to keep the economy moving".

Then I have another brother who has spent various periods of time over the years in California who undertakes manual type under the table work and he just cannot procure any work at the moment. He has never had a problem in the past but he said that it's different this time because even the "locals" can't find work. Two very different opinions of what is happening in two very different parts of the world. It is so bad over in Arnie land that he is finally coming for his first visit to me in London in 17 years. Must be bad - ha, ha. I think he's hoping to pick up some work here. Not that it is a bed of roses here though.

It's the second week that my weekly candle has closed above my 61.8% monthly fib at 83.81 and it has now done a yearly range of 2,287 pips although that figure does pale in comparison to last year's range of 3,841 pips. I guess anything is possible these days.

[EDIT] Thinking about Gold, supposedly all the "real" traders were back at their desks this week so they showed their hand and Gold was the beneficiary in this case.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,960
  • Sep 5, 2009 9:46am Sep 5, 2009 9:46am
Quoting plan-b
I am average short at .8450
will cut loss if above .8550 prints
ups and down are the rule, so you probably will be able to close your position with profit, sure I wish you that
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