I propose renaming the thread to
'james 16 - start at p1, stop trading the 5m chart... and no, we dont have an EA for you'
the EA bit was very funny
james16 Chart Thread
- #43,081
- Sep 4, 2009 2:36am Sep 4, 2009 2:36am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
the EA bit was very funny
- #43,082
- Sep 4, 2009 3:00am Sep 4, 2009 3:00am
That trend line is a bit uncomfortable for me.
For a trend line to be vailed IMO it needs at least 3 time to touch and reject price. Otherwise you can pull a line between every 2 points o your chart.
In addition you can see that price didn't reach it recently. That is more like two old very minor swing points. Check my last post for an example of trend lines.
Hope it helps.
Ben
PS - you have cropped the pair and TF. My guess from looking at your chart is EURGBP daily, right?
If you can see it, you may have a chance to get a pullback to the recent horizontal old resistance.
- #43,088
- Sep 4, 2009 4:00am Sep 4, 2009 4:00am
By the way, on the lower TFs there was a break out pattern, but not enough good for me.
Ben
something u & rac said.....hmmmm
thnx ben
Simplicity is the key to success
- #43,089
- Sep 4, 2009 4:11am Sep 4, 2009 4:11am
aha, something just triggered upstairs...just rushed to put my thoughts on paper now....
something u & rac said.....hmmmm
thnx ben
this is the beauty.Ben
- #43,090
- Sep 4, 2009 4:40am Sep 4, 2009 4:40am
This is alot longer than I planned. So, here is the short version.
Behold, the power of the sports analogy:
I kick a football at a window. It doesnt break, and comes back to me.
Next, I kick it at the window again, but from a bit further back. The ball goes to the same point (ie, to the window) but by the time it gets there, it is already decelerating, because I kick like a girl....
This post made me think.
When we have a double top or bottom, with divergence - the example of the ball and window is very clear. Price stalled at resistance with high momentum (ball didn't break the window with full speed). So most likely price wouldn't break resistance with low momentum (lower speed of the ball won't break the window).
But on the other hand I have a conflict. We earlier got to the conclusion that the more a certain area gets tested - higher the odds it will break.
Does any one here ever tried to trade double tops and bottoms, based on divergence and PA alone? Sounds like a killer to me
James - that was a part of your thought process on your last trade? Have you been trading this way for a long time?
Maybe I can use it as a pullback location when I have no round numbers around...just thoughts (I still don't have anything to give me the push like the order flow does - but maybe it is still a good entry for many fresh traders).
By the way, when price is making higher highs and the oscillator lower highs...it becomes a bit different because if we make the sport analogy - the ball did break the window.
So basically when this happen, all I know is the fact that price is loosing momentum - AKA recently moving slower than in the past.
Ben
Hi mike, thanks for your reply.
Hi guys,
I am trying to understand the reason for James going long on USD JPY.
From his chart I can see that he take the trade because there are divergence/big round number/double bottom/very tight stop. Are those factors enough to pull the trigger even there is no daily PA present? (Though I do see some pinbar on H4 and H1)
To me, this trade is like catching a falling knife, since the price has been going down from early august. Please feel free to comment.
Thx
Hi guys,
I am trying to understand the reason for James going long on USD JPY.
From his chart I can see that he take the trade because there are divergence/big round number/double bottom/very tight stop. Are those factors enough to pull the trigger even there is no daily PA present? (Though I do see some pinbar on H4 and H1)
To me, this trade is like catching a falling knife, since the price has been going down from early august. Please feel free to comment.
Thx
- #43,093
- Sep 4, 2009 5:34am Sep 4, 2009 5:34am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,036 Posts
The other main thing to keep in mind is that the US is the dominant mover here, so by going long AU and UJ, you are effectively hoping for USD to simultaneously move up and down
Aud>Usd>Jpy... where we would buy AUD/USD and buy USD/JPY...
This gets especially feasible if we are taking the long trades on different timeframes... say a weekly pinbar on A/U and a 4hr pinbar on U/J...
So for me, I don't pay ANY attention to whether I am long USD in one pair and short USD on another pair. I Only trade the charts. Heck, just yesterday, I took a short E/U 4hr pinbar, and a few hours later took a long G/U 1hr pinbar off 1.63. Both ran to over 0.5R before stopping me at b/e (but neither have hit the price of my initial stop...).
Treat each chart independently, and treat each pair independently (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF XXX/JPY, where they generally give the same PA and imo, it's just increasing your risk to take all their setups). Of course, I'm a relative newbie, so take my opinion for what it's worth...
I'll be out most of today. Flat right now. Enjoy the day and long weekend (for USA people)!
Josh
- #43,094
- Sep 4, 2009 6:01am Sep 4, 2009 6:01am
Chart
im also short on this pair but got in a little late....looking back i saw much better entry @ 1.6985 area
are you planning on taking profit at 1.69 or waiting to see if we break it
good trade
u've got me thinking .....
Simplicity is the key to success
Hi mike, thanks for your reply.
Hi guys,
I am trying to understand the reason for James going long on USD JPY.
From his chart I can see that he take the trade because there are divergence/big round number/double bottom/very tight stop. Are those factors enough to pull the trigger even there is no daily PA present? (Though I do see some pinbar on H4 and H1)
To me, this trade is like catching a falling knife, since the price has been going down from early august. Please feel free to comment.
Thx
I took a long off the 4hr PB yesterday but it wasn't really moving quickly enough for me, so I got out for a small profit.
- #43,098
- Sep 4, 2009 6:22am Sep 4, 2009 6:22am
nice one ben
im also short on this pair but got in a little late....looking back i saw much better entry @ 1.6985 area
are you planning on taking profit at 1.69 or waiting to see if we break it
good trade
u've got me thinking .....
That PZZ should act as resistance now. hehe I like this
Ben
