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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,201
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:27am Sep 3, 2009 9:27am
Hi coscorp, thanks for the very informative posts. Need to get my head round them though!

R.e your TP levels, my attitude is that the same rules apply to avoiding stop hunting by brokers. For example, there was a triple top formation on gbp/usd today-now where are the stops going to be-just above the triple top perhaps? ANd look what happens-price runs up-bang, takes them out. But this triple top is also near an 00 level so what then? Bang, takes out the 00 level as well as it's another popular area. And oh look, it's managed to drop to as low as 33 (at the time of writing) -so the shorts were right, but the timing and placing of the SL was way too obvious.

In relation to that, I think the same applies to TP levels. 00 AND 50 are extremely popular levels, so if I want to exit a long at a profit, I would put my TP below the 50 level-especially as that's the selling price. The brokers don't want you to get your profits in the same way that they want to run your stops, so they will try to make sure those levels aren't hit. Of course you can say that it works both ways but looking at eurusd chart I think it would be quite obvious that many people are long, and as a result, a lot of TP orders would be around that 50 level.

But then again I get the feeling you might know more than me and that I might just be paranoid

Which of course doesn't mean that they're not out to get you.

Hmm rereading my SL/TP theory, it does actually sound totally bonkers as I was long cable this morning. I give up.
  • #9,202
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:38am Sep 3, 2009 9:38am
Quoting RadMan
Good morning Coscorp

On your last chart you have the fib low on early july, not august 17?

just curious why

i do understand your TL's, i'm making headway.....slowly


Lloyd

BTW I too am grateful for your posts and this thread

Yes - those are my major fib levels (300 bars).
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,203
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:39am Sep 3, 2009 9:39am
i dont understand how a broker can hunt your sl? I can understand if you bought at a psych level(1.4400) then had an sl at 1.45, your sl would be more susceptible from a move toward that level... but thats hardly a broker hunting?
  • #9,204
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:40am Sep 3, 2009 9:40am
Quoting bootsyjam
Hi coscorp, thanks for the very informative posts. Need to get my head round them though!

R.e your TP levels, my attitude is that the same rules apply to avoiding stop hunting by brokers. For example, there was a triple top formation on gbp/usd today-now where are the stops going to be-just above the triple top perhaps? ANd look what happens-price runs up-bang, takes them out. But this triple top is also near an 00 level so what then? Bang, takes out the 00 level as well as it's another popular area. And oh look, it's managed to drop to as low...
LOL - in retrospect it was kind of naive of me to put the TP at the 50 level and not be happy with one 10 - 20 pips lower.

Live and learn as they say.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,205
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:03am Sep 3, 2009 10:03am
Quoting Pipscalibur
i dont understand how a broker can hunt your sl? I can understand if you bought at a psych level(1.4400) then had an sl at 1.45, your sl would be more susceptible from a move toward that level... but thats hardly a broker hunting?
Hi Pipscalibur
Maybe it's terminology-market makers/brokers/hedge funds/call them what you want. Bottom line is that in situations like that when S/R levels are so obvious, you know they're going to get hit before a move continues in the direction that is expected. How many times has it happened to you? It isn't chance, it's just the way things work. Funds/whoever move the markets, will run prices up to these levels, take out stops, and subsequently get even better prices for their positions before the move continues back down in the expected direction. In fact, it is probably one of the reasons, if not the reason, why jacko has his anti hedging strategy, because if he is certain that he is on correct side of a move but he's taken out, then he'll re-enter again at the SL level because he knows he's right. So he's almost acting like a hedge fund/one of the big boys, in that respect.

Of course, you don't have to think I'm right, but if you've traded fx it must have happened to you many times?
  • #9,206
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:26am Sep 3, 2009 10:26am
Cos, you still long?

I see a green candle forming on my chart

luck to you
  • #9,207
  • Sep 3, 2009 10:33am Sep 3, 2009 10:33am
Hey Bootsy,
I understand that the big players move money to the psych levels and sometimes no further. I thought you were worried about a single broker quoting a price slightly above or below the correct price(slippage?). Eg when the price hit 1.4348 earlier tonight, a broker could have quoted 1.4350 to hunt stops.
Caught up in terminology.

I am new to fx, though i have seen this happen many times, and i think it makes sence to place stops at a point beyond the psych levels
  • #9,208
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:07am Sep 3, 2009 11:07am
Quoting RadMan
Cos, you still long?

I see a green candle forming on my chart

luck to you

Yes I'm still in...

in hindsight (nice thing hindsight eh?) I should have just gotten out higher and then waited for the dust to settle...but I guess this is a good exercise in patience.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,209
  • Sep 3, 2009 11:39am Sep 3, 2009 11:39am
If I had a pair then I would have gone long at 1.4250-Daily pivot and 50% fib from 4.00pm 1st september to 10am 3rd september swing hi/low. However, I get the distinct feeling that this is very short term in terms of Jacko's approach and he's probably not even sniffing at these trades. Let alone not near a round number either.

Yeah pipscalibur its just the terminology is all, although I wouldn't trust individual brokers as far as I could throw them. I don't think there is a centralised pricing system for forex, so there can certainly be deviations in price by a few pips max between brokers, and you can bet that it'll be to their benefit.
Like I said-paranoid, me? Never!
  • #9,210
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:13pm Sep 3, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting bootsyjam
I wouldn't trust individual brokers as far as I could throw them. I don't think there is a centralised pricing system for forex, so there can certainly be deviations in price by a few pips max between brokers, and you can bet that it'll be to their benefit.
Like I said-paranoid, me? Never!
bootsyjam,

If you're worried about stop hunting or the big boys pushing price around to close the retailers out before a move, you should be placing your stops beyond the obvious SR and TL's, maybe 20 pips for the majors, and more for the more volatile pairs (sorry for mentioning other pairs Jacko).

Price will often test these levels before making a decision, meaning if you want to stay in the trade, you need wider stops, and therefore a smaller position size to keep your risk constant.

Also, tomorrow's NFP, I would be wary opening anything today, because if price doesn't get far enough from your entry before the news, there's a good chance you'll be taken out by the spike.
  • #9,211
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:44am Sep 4, 2009 1:44am
Hi Low (boom boom!)
Those levels don't rule my life, but I'm always aware of them, and days like yesterday on cable only serve to show stop hunting as an art form

Bringing the thread back to Jacko's system, and combining it with your post, I don't think it is an issue with his system-the trailing stop of 50 points is set and that's it. I'm guessing that adding an extra 20 points anyway would greatly reduce the profitability of the system. I'm hopefully signing up to trade with him an am extremely excited by the anti-hedge. If you know the market is going your way then bang it again, I just need to gain the knowledge of knowing when the market truly is going my way!

I know Jacko talks about news trading on the front page, as in trading aound news events. It's US Non-Farms today-does anyone know if Jacko would just sit today out completely, or trade as normal if his levels are hit?
  • #9,212
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:19am Sep 4, 2009 2:19am
Jacko is currently using a 100 pip hard SL with a possible target for getting out.

Regarding major news like today - in my experience if price reaches his desired level he will get in - but is more cautious because of the possible spikes he much prefers to wait for the dust to settle then place the trade - also today is friday and normally he doesn't hold positions over the weekend - albeit he has done so on occasion in the past.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,213
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:36am Sep 4, 2009 2:36am
Does anyone know where to find some good info on the nfp?
From what i can see it will be good for usd, still undecided if i have the balls to short it...
  • #9,214
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:45am Sep 4, 2009 2:45am
Hi Pips,
Just my opinion and you can decide to ignore it, but don't get sucked into news announcements. It's for the big boys only-they decide how it will affect the currencies and will shift their billions in and out in a very short timeframe as a result, hence the huge swings and the huge spreads .
If you've figured out a way of riding on their coat tails then great stuff.
I also wouldn't try and guess the market's reaction to it-who knows what has been priced in or what hasn't? The big boys drive the trneds-if you know what they're thinking then great, if you don't then good luck
  • #9,215
  • Sep 4, 2009 2:59am Sep 4, 2009 2:59am
Thanks mate but i wouldnt try to trade the news exclusively, no one knows what the result is and I'm sh*# scared of my broker freezing the platform on me.
The reason I brought it up is that if price reaches 1.435 i think Jacko might be willing to head in(me thinks he has some inside info , or his crystal ball has made a prophecy).
I think last months NFP had a swing of 150pips, much too volatile for my tastes.
In either way i just wanted to get a more fundamental view of the picture.
Haha i dont think the big boys even know what theyre thinking
  • #9,216
  • Sep 4, 2009 4:41am Sep 4, 2009 4:41am
Quoting Pipscalibur
Does anyone know where to find some good info on the nfp?
From what i can see it will be good for usd, still undecided if i have the balls to short it...

Hi

NFP last month saw EURUSD go up 50 pips before falling over 200. Big stops indeed.

As to the direction 50/50. This may or may not show correlation to the news event so again 50/50.

I traded the NFP last month whist Jacko was out on the town with his missus, I lost 100 pips and he had a good night out.

Having said all that it doesn't mean he won't trade it. Then again he is the jedi. I wouldn't trade it on my own.

It is also interesting to note that you have a daily lower trendline at 1.4100 and quite strong support at 1.4400. That gives us quite a tight range for the NFP so we may see the break out of the range.

Lets see what we get this month????? LOL

Cheers Dave
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,217
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:41am Sep 4, 2009 6:41am
Quoting coscorp
Regarding TL's if I may - I would suggest either drawing them from the wick or from the body - but it would be best imo to maintain consistency with the levels we take the TL's from and make them end. I use the wicks as they give me the HH and LL of that movement - some I know prefer the body - but agai being consistent across the board is fairly important from my experience.
Hi coscorp,

Thanks for the TL advice, that makes good sense to me. Successful trading definitely needs consistency....

I prefer to draw from the wicks too - I obviously just need to learn to stick to one method! Doing this would put a daily TL around 1.4100 right now, which seems more reasonable.

I like it when something simple makes a big difference to my trading.

Cheers
  • #9,218
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:48am Sep 4, 2009 6:48am
hi

i understand how A-H strategy works but i have a question yet.
if after we stopped price goes side way around our stop point what will be our decision?
i.e

long at 1.4200
A-H stop ( 1.4150)

market hits our stop and going nowhere ,,,, price moves between 1.4120 to 1.4180
how much room you give to price to move before you put another buy order at 1.4150?

regards
  • #9,219
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:53am Sep 4, 2009 6:53am
Quoting shahram261
how much room you give to price to move before you put another buy order at 1.4150?
... but Jackos stops are currently 100 pips from entry. So your original stop would be at 4100 if you follow his example.
  • #9,220
  • Sep 4, 2009 6:55am Sep 4, 2009 6:55am
Quoting shahram261
hi

i understand how A-H strategy works but i have a question yet.
if after we stopped price goes side way around our stop point what will be our decision?
i.e

long at 1.4200
A-H stop ( 1.4150)

market hits our stop and going nowhere ,,,, price moves between 1.4120 to 1.4180
how much room you give to price to move before you put another buy order at 1.4150?

regards
Hi,

Personally I like to see price move at least another 50 pips from my stop before using the A-H strategy.

I would also note however that the original stop loss should be 100 pips not 50 at the moment, due to volatility.

Regards,

Dan
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