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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,181
  • Sep 2, 2009 1:42pm Sep 2, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting madpommie
Hi Dan

You may well be right and most things are open to interpretation so we are probably both right and both wrong all at the same time.

The point I was trying to make on the current posting was not my own but from Jacko's post on 27th August 2009:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2997724&postcount=9045

Cheers
Dave
Hi Dave,

Thanks for the reply. I think you are right in so much as when the market is ranging up and down the 50% level would be a good target from selling the top and buying the bottom.

However, when the market is trending I think the 50% level is used as a guide to getting in the market at a discount. I.e. when the market is going up you wait for a retracement and the 50% level (or better) represents the discount level.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,182
  • Sep 2, 2009 2:02pm Sep 2, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Dave,

Thanks for the reply. I think you are right in so much as when the market is ranging up and down the 50% level would be a good target from selling the top and buying the bottom.

However, when the market is trending I think the 50% level is used as a guide to getting in the market at a discount. I.e. when the market is going up you wait for a retracement and the 50% level (or better) represents the discount level.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan

It does indeed make sense. I think my problem is before we were range bound I was trying to prove that I knew better than Wayne until I'd read trading in the zone so I've only been paying attention for the last 3 months and missed what you are saying totally.

I'm glad that I am still around to hear what you are saying and will be here to see it unfold in practice.

Thanks for the patience and I know that the conversation will help others understand where and how to use the 50% fib. It has me.

Cheers
Dave
Each loss is one step closer to a winner!!! Cheers, Dave
  • #9,183
  • Sep 2, 2009 2:20pm Sep 2, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting madpommie
Hi Dan

It does indeed make sense. I think my problem is before we were range bound I was trying to prove that I knew better than Wayne until I'd read trading in the zone so I've only been paying attention for the last 3 months and missed what you are saying totally.

I'm glad that I am still around to hear what you are saying and will be here to see it unfold in practice.

Thanks for the patience and I know that the conversation will help others understand where and how to use the 50% fib. It has me.

Cheers
Dave
Glad to be of use!
  • #9,184
  • Sep 2, 2009 7:09pm Sep 2, 2009 7:09pm
good morning, afternoon and evening

hi friends. thanks for the discussion. this jacko's method is a good and safe method.

francis
  • #9,185
  • Edited 7:32pm Sep 2, 2009 7:13pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting bootsyjam
I'm long at 1.4200.
Price fell to 4200, the nearest round number closest to the 50% fib that I have drawn.

When it retraced back up after going through it I entered long. Time will tell. Hope I've got the strategy right.
Snap! I was in exactly the same trade: bought at 1.4200 and closed out at the Fib50 (drawn from the high on the 27th to the low on Monday) just shy of 1.4300.

One of my main reasons for taking this trade was the bounce off the daily trendline, dating back to the 4th March, which is slightly higher than the H4 one....exactly at 1.4200 in fact!

Although we don't trade from the daily, I find it helps to keep an eye on it. Price is still respecting the upper and lower trendlines over a 300 day period for now, but a break is inevitable by the middle of the month, probably sooner (see my last post).

Could we see the resumption of a proper trend before long?

Congrats on your trade

Ignore Fib on the first chart, I drew it wrong. Similar levels anyway but the second one's right
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  • #9,186
  • Sep 2, 2009 7:37pm Sep 2, 2009 7:37pm
This thread is really coming alive again! The last few pages contain some of the most useful discussion and advice I've seen here for ages. Well worth a read. Thanks Coscorp, Madpommie, DanUK, etc....

Great posts everyone.
  • #9,187
  • Sep 2, 2009 8:55pm Sep 2, 2009 8:55pm
Just wanted to say good job here Jacko...you teach "principals" that a lot of people leave out. For anyone knew the first few posts in this thread are very important and should be taken as such. Keep up the good work.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #9,188
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:41pm Sep 2, 2009 9:41pm
Greetings to the venerable Jacko and g'day to everyone else!

I have been trading forex for a while now but only found this forum about a week ago and this thread a few days ago and ... wow! I just want to say that I think it's wonderful that someone as successful as Jacko is so generous as to share his excellent method with people who are willing to learn and to take the time to create and have input into this thread.

Also, how good is the internet, that we can be sitting practically anywhere in the world and have access to this wealth of information for next to nothing!!
  • #9,189
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:08am Sep 3, 2009 12:08am
Thanks anyway, this is helpful.

Quoting narberth
Zoom in as far as possible then out 3 times is roughly 300 bars - found this elsewhere on this thread so no credit to me
  • #9,190
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:20am Sep 3, 2009 3:20am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Dave,

Thanks for the reply. I think you are right in so much as when the market is ranging up and down the 50% level would be a good target from selling the top and buying the bottom.

However, when the market is trending I think the 50% level is used as a guide to getting in the market at a discount. I.e. when the market is going up you wait for a retracement and the 50% level (or better) represents the discount level.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan

Thanks Dan, I was starting to doubt why I had entered the trade as the other opinions certainlky make sense too. So i was using that thought process without knowing it, there's still an uptrend (generally and it's still rangebound, so why not buy at the 00 level close to the 50% retrace?

Pipped, glad i wasn't alone-i don't have the same daily trendline as you do-mine is still a way below but that's the beauty/pain of forex, even trendlines can be different!
  • #9,191
  • Edited 4:57am Sep 3, 2009 4:27am | Edited 4:57am
Pipped I would contend that the second one is also wrong as you have a HH further back in time - thus - the fib should be drawn retracing from the LL to the HH.

just my. 02


Quoting Pipped
Snap! I was in exactly the same trade: bought at 1.4200 and closed out at the Fib50 (drawn from the high on the 27th to the low on Monday) just shy of 1.4300.

One of my main reasons for taking this trade was the bounce off the daily trendline, dating back to the 4th March, which is slightly higher than the H4 one....exactly at 1.4200 in fact!

Although we don't trade from the daily, I find it helps to keep an eye on it. Price is still respecting the upper and lower trendlines over a 300 day period for now, but a break is inevitable by the...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,192
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:52am Sep 3, 2009 4:52am
time for an update on what i'm seeing on my charts

[IMG][/url]http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/6431/23075211.th.gif (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1sRvF9)[/IMG]

direct link is here: http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1sRvF9

the dark blue TL's are what i call the major Trend Lines as per Jacko's parameters - always drawn on H4.

The red ones are what I call the minor trend lines - however - as can be seen price has respected them far more so they need a lot of attention paid to them - meaning the capability of adapting one's trades to what price is doing - had we waited for only the major TL's to be hit - we would have missed out on fair number of possible trades. Those of us who are more aggressive like to ride the train both ways as it were - whereas Jacko prefers to decide the major market sentiment and trade only in that direction.

That being said the aqua colored TL is another minor which was respected and gave a lot of potential long trades - however it failed nicely on the 01-09 with price going all the way down to the 1.4180 level (or rounded off to 1.4200 - nice round number and double zero as well) - question is will this bullrun have the strength to break it to at least reach 1.4350...

Personally, I'm going to wait and see if it does and have set my TP at 1.4350 with stop at + 50 (entry was 1.4190).

I have however removed my pending sell at that level in view of the major news due out today - hopefully it will push this even higher (major TL?) so we can sell at a better price.

Cheers

disclaimer: these ARE NOT trading recommendations - simply how I see what is happening.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,193
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:42am Sep 3, 2009 6:42am
We're at that minor support turned resistance now....let's see what it does.
  • #9,194
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:10am Sep 3, 2009 7:10am
Quoting Pipped
We're at that minor support turned resistance now....let's see what it does.
wait for unemployment changes and the ism i dont think it will push through 1.4350 tonight
but lets see
  • #9,195
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:43am Sep 3, 2009 7:43am
Hi Coscorp, this is very helpful and I get the colour legend.

Purple: overall trend using highs and lows from t/f, though I can only see one low or point touching the trendline so presume other other is back out of sight.

Red and Lilac :So these are mini trends within the majors which could be tradeable but Jacko sticks to the majors if understand correctly.

This helps me with chart plotting so thanks for this

Cheers

ST





Quoting coscorp
time for an update on what i'm seeing on my charts

[IMG][/url]http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/6431/23075211.th.gif (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1sRvF9)[/IMG]

direct link is here: http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1sRvF9

the dark blue TL's are what i call the major Trend Lines as per Jacko's parameters - always drawn on H4.

The red ones are what I call the minor trend lines - however - as can be seen price has respected them far more so they need a lot of attention paid to them - meaning the...
" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #9,196
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:45am Sep 3, 2009 7:45am
Quoting coscorp
Pipped I would contend that the second one is also wrong as you have a HH further back in time - thus - the fib should be drawn retracing from the LL to the HH.

just my. 02
Hi coscorp,

You've confused me

I just drew my fib from the most recent low and high that touched the major trendlines.

If I had zoomed out further (say 300 bars) there would be a new LL from the 8th July to the HH that you have on your chart.... what I mean is, are there not countless possibilities for drawing fibs (not wrong, just short-term/long-term, major/minor etc)? Or have I missed an important point here?

It's interesting because I wouldn't have thought to draw mine this way when I was looking to go long - it feels backwards almost (maybe just to me). As I understand it, the Fib50 is largely a self-fulfilling prophecy so the general consensus tends to win: I'm wondering what TA the majority of traders would have made here. My fib gave me confluence with the trendline at 1.4200 which helped get me into the trade, instead of 1.4250 which might have given me less confidence as price went lower. Hindsight's a wonderful thing, but the trade worked out as hoped.

Also, I noticed that the minor red support line on your chart is the same as the daily trendline on mine which has been respected since March. Does this not make it more significant than the major blue one?

Thanks a lot for your posts and ongoing effort - I like your analysis and charts.
  • #9,197
  • Edited 8:41am Sep 3, 2009 8:31am | Edited 8:41am
Hi,

1.4346...missed my tp by 4 pips.... and market has dropped like a stone to boot....let's hope the news will push it back up giving another opportunity to get into a short. Otherwise I guess I'll just have to wait for another setup lower down to possibly go long again if I get stopped out - time will tell.

Now,

Pipped you are correct in that there can be different interpretations on where to draw fibs from - however personally if I see an HH or an LL a bit further back (or forward) I will use that - because it will probably help the fib levels hold more significance. If you look at your second chart the HH is just a bit further back. I also have a major fib going back further which is on the chart -


[IMG]http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3881/63259424.th.gif (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gxbXvGS)[/IMG]

as you can see the - 50 fib for that is a 1.4140 and is intersected by the major lower TL in blue (both based on the LL of July 7).

Regarding TL's if I may - I would suggest either drawing them from the wick or from the body - but it would be best imo to maintain consistency with the levels we take the TL's from and make them end. I use the wicks as they give me the HH and LL of that movement - some I know prefer the body - but agai being consistent across the board is fairly important from my experience.

Cheers

Quoting Pipped
Hi coscorp,

You've confused me

I just drew my fib from the most recent low and high that touched the major trendlines.

If I had zoomed out further (say 300 bars) there would be a new LL from the 8th July to the HH that you have on your chart.... what I mean is, are there not countless possibilities for drawing fibs (not wrong, just short-term/long-term, major/minor etc)? Or have I missed an important point here?

It's interesting because I wouldn't have thought to draw mine this way when I was looking to go long - it...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,198
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:52am Sep 3, 2009 8:52am
Hi Coscorp, heres my chart and would welcome ur views.

I can see a HL 141.909 indicated by red line so my question is :

I presume u entered at 1.4190 because the price had made it above 142 and retraced giving you entry at the HL (higher than the prev low at c141.72) confirming trend up as indicated but Jacko would wait for the major trend line to be broken.

Cheers

ST
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" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #9,199
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:10am Sep 3, 2009 9:10am
Hi,

actually it was much simpler than that - I had the minor TL at 14180 and price was hovering around 14200 (double 00) thus I decided to put my order in the middle hoping price would go back down and catch it -and in case price would have broken to go down to the major TL I had an extra 10 pip cushion for my SL, as I don't always use 100 pip SL's like Jacko.
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,200
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:25am Sep 3, 2009 9:25am
Good morning Coscorp

On your last chart you have the fib low on early july, not august 17?

just curious why

i do understand your TL's, i'm making headway.....slowly


Lloyd

BTW I too am grateful for your posts and this thread
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