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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,141
  • Sep 2, 2009 4:30am Sep 2, 2009 4:30am
Quoting Ace284
Fair enough, and you're right there has been a lot of commentary in the thread lately that is not too important for learning purposes. Hint hint, shiko, 28 posts in the last 24 hours. I'm sure that's a record for this thread. The nature of this strategy requires lots of waiting around. So I can understand you wanting to post to pass the time but quite a few times its just that...passing time. I don't mind reading it because I know this system like the back of my hand and I don't get confused with non related posts. But sometimes...
This is a gem of a method that Ace has shared, with results backtested for several years. The results clearly show this method has an edge.

Any additional changes should be backtested and results compared to the original method, else there might be a reduced edge with the modified method.

Plan the trade, and trade the plan. What Ace has given us is a set-and-forget plan. The rest is up to you, whether you choose to follow the plan exactly or make variations (with the risk of a reduced edge).

As Ed Ponsi once said in a seminar i attended, "judge your success by how well you followed your plan, not by the outcome of the trade".
  • #3,142
  • Sep 2, 2009 5:18am Sep 2, 2009 5:18am
Quoting TraderT

As Ed Ponsi once said in a seminar i attended, "judge your success by how well you followed your plan, not by the outcome of the trade".
That's a fantastic saying, will be remembering that one.
  • #3,143
  • Sep 2, 2009 5:25am Sep 2, 2009 5:25am
Btw Ace, you owe me 320 pips from this week!

lol
  • #3,144
  • Sep 2, 2009 6:41am Sep 2, 2009 6:41am
Quoting Jesper
That's a fantastic saying, will be remembering that one.

I can say that I am following plan, but I do believe that additional rule of no trading if first trade of the week is a loss should be implemented. It would save money in case of choppy / consolidating market.
I personally will not make second trade if first is a loss on 10% box stop loss.
I believe this wip saw is telling that market is in indecision and we should wait.
Let's look at January 2009 and there were many similar occasions when real break out happened. There were week after week of TP3-TP4 from the trade number 1. On the other hand when first trade was a loss, probabilities have been rather slim that second will be winner according to Ace rules.
  • #3,145
  • Sep 2, 2009 7:47am Sep 2, 2009 7:47am
Quoting shiko
I can say that I am following plan, but I do believe that additional rule of no trading if first trade of the week is a loss should be implemented. It would save money in case of choppy / consolidating market.
I personally will not make second trade if first is a loss on 10% box stop loss.
I believe this wip saw is telling that market is in indecision and we should wait.
Let's look at January 2009 and there were many similar occasions when real break out happened. There were week after week of TP3-TP4 from the trade number 1. On the other hand...
Gees you can talk ..HOW does your missus put up with you???
  • #3,146
  • Sep 2, 2009 7:56am Sep 2, 2009 7:56am
Quoting tpr
Folks,

...Posts about the size of your box ...
Ohhhh..that bit made me chuckle.

On a more serious note, have been following this thread with interest. And wonder if I could ask a general question. I think someone mentioned earlier about keeping any modifications to minimum and then the need to backtest them. All of which makes sense. But what do people consider to be a reasonable backtest length ? 6months, 1 year? , 5years?

If a strategy didn't work 5 years ago, but is working for last 6 months, does that mean we shouldn't use it ? I was kind of thinking about a year seems a good period.

I suppose if we have a big length of time backtested you can determine the type of market where the strategy doesn't work. That is fair enough, but it is only of use if you can recognise that type of market in realtime ? It is always easier in hindsight and say that 2002 was a non-trending year for example. But would you have known that at the time ?

Hope I haven't gone off topic too much, but just wondered what other traders thought about this.
  • #3,147
  • Sep 2, 2009 8:37am Sep 2, 2009 8:37am
Quoting danc
Gees you can talk ..HOW does your missus put up with you???
Like this
  • #3,148
  • Sep 2, 2009 8:51am Sep 2, 2009 8:51am
Quoting danc
Gees you can talk ..HOW does your missus put up with you???


I think I know how . . . his missus doesn't read this thread.

The question is . . . how do we put up with shiko???

Just kidding shiko. It's good to see you took Ace's advice to heart . . . only 6 posts overnight.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,149
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:03am Sep 2, 2009 9:03am
Quoting yen44x


I think I know how . . . his missus doesn't read this thread.

The question is . . . how do we put up with shiko???

Just kidding shiko. It's good to see you took Ace's advice to heart . . . only 6 posts overnight.
But all of the to the point :-P
  • #3,150
  • Sep 2, 2009 10:00am Sep 2, 2009 10:00am
Quoting shiko
I can say that I am following plan, but I do believe that additional rule of no trading if first trade of the week is a loss should be implemented. when first trade was a loss, probabilities have been rather slim that second will be winner according to Ace rules.
You have mentioned this several times. Do you have an Excel sheet or some sort of data that you can post to back this up? If it's true, it would be worth implementing, but so far you've furnished nothing to substantiate what you're saying.

If you recall, you made the same statement a while back, and I quickly scanned the charts and found 4 recent examples where a trader would have left hundreds of pips on the table by ignoring the second trade.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,151
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:07pm Sep 2, 2009 12:07pm
I am wondering if the fact that Forex trading has come a long way since 2002 might have something to do with it as well...
Things like VOLUME and the AMOUNT of people actually trading it have changed since then.

I dont know if that has anything to do with why lots of great results in the last 3 years vs pre 04.

Of course this hectic recession has also created tons of volatility.
  • #3,152
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:08pm Sep 2, 2009 12:08pm
hi,

i know there have been many discussions on where to put your stop loss, and whether to take profit at tp1 tp2 etc..anyone who tried this method ever tried treating the boxes like resistance and support? i mean when price reaches TP 1, placing stop loss jut about TP1 box. this way if price moves against you at the TP1 level, u dont risk all of hard earned pips, the way you would if you had S loss place at break even like many of you suggest.

any feedback appreciated as this is not tested, just an idea
  • #3,153
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:10pm Sep 2, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting Weasy2k
I am wondering if the fact that Forex trading has come a long way since 2002 might have something to do with it as well...
Things like VOLUME and the AMOUNT of people actually trading it have changed since then.

I dont know if that has anything to do with why lots of great results in the last 3 years vs pre 04.

Of course this hectic recession has also created tons of volatility.
I would have to agree with you on this one, 10,000 small traders = 1 large Market Maker (volume wise)
  • #3,154
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:12pm Sep 2, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting ledobedo
hi,

i know there have been many discussions on where to put your stop loss, and whether to take profit at tp1 tp2 etc..anyone who tried this method ever tried treating the boxes like resistance and support? i mean when price reaches TP 1, placing stop loss jut about TP1 box. this way if price moves against you at the TP1 level, u dont risk all of hard earned pips, the way you would if you had S loss place at break even like many of you suggest.

any feedback appreciated as this is not tested, just an idea

If that's the kind of system you're looking for, check out my system 4H breakout with custom stoploss, it uses the exact same fantastic breakout system as this (thanks again Ace, you rock) but has a tighter stoploss system in place that is designed to lock in those hard earned pips.
  • #3,155
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:18pm Sep 2, 2009 12:18pm
Maybe the first week of every month is not so good for this system (I didn't do back test). Since there are so many news that are scheduled to be released in the first week.

This week is particularly bad since Japan had a vote and got a new goverment.

I may decide to skip the first week in the future.
  • #3,156
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:21pm Sep 2, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting Baby001
Maybe the first week of every month is not so good for this system (I didn't do back test). Since there are so many news that are scheduled to be released in the first week.

This week is particularly bad since Japan had a vote and got a new goverment.

I may decide to skip the first week in the future.
I've skipped the first week of the month all my life.

The result? I'm 25% younger than I would be otherwise.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,157
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:23pm Sep 2, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting Baby001
Maybe the first week of every month is not so good for this system (I didn't do back test). Since there are so many news that are scheduled to be released in the first week.

This week is particularly bad since Japan had a vote and got a new goverment.

I may decide to skip the first week in the future.
This may very well be the key to unlocking this system full potential.
  • #3,158
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:37pm Sep 2, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting Baby001
Maybe the first week of every month is not so good for this system (I didn't do back test).

I may decide to skip the first week in the future.
Quoting Pharoah
This may very well be the key to unlocking this system full potential.
I disagree . . . one month does not prove much of anything. Even a quick glance at the charts for 2009 will show you that some tremendously profitable weeks occurred in the first week of the month this year.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,159
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:39pm Sep 2, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting yen44x
I disagree . . . one month does not prove much of anything. Even a quick glance at the charts for 2009 will show you that some tremendously profitable weeks occurred in the first week of the month this year.
Yup, I didn't check into it, I've got other things on my plate at the moment, but thanks for checking.
  • #3,160
  • Sep 2, 2009 12:44pm Sep 2, 2009 12:44pm
i think the first week can be very profitable solely for the reason there are so many news. if u can anticipated the news, your intra day trading can turn very profitable.
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