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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #42,841
  • Sep 1, 2009 6:28pm Sep 1, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Dublin

We'll continue our conversation via PM, no need to clutter the thread.

EDIT -

I can't seem to PM you, have you accept them turned on ?

Sorry, new to the forum and all that. Didn't know there was an on/off button for PMs.

Fixed now.
  • #42,842
  • Sep 1, 2009 7:06pm Sep 1, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Rocket!
Wow, last thing I expected to see when I was going back over missed posts - youtube Hurling clips!

Great to see another Irish man on the thread. Of course, most people will tell you theres a bit of Irish in them... and if theres not, well, gimme a few beers and I'll see what I can do!!

Heres a another clip for any non Aussie/Irish who isn't familar with the International Rules 'Football' Jigsaw was referring to:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIGREZw4Sr4#

I was at most of those games. Man, ye Aussies couldn't beat eggs. I mean...
Check out all the Coat Hanger cheap shots. They're embarrassing! lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #42,843
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:35pm Sep 1, 2009 11:35pm
AUDCAD 4Hr
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42,844
  • Sep 2, 2009 4:21am Sep 2, 2009 4:21am
Hey guys

Just thinking why this pin failed!?

Should be order deleted couse next bar after pin didnt triger the order?
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  • #42,845
  • Sep 2, 2009 4:26am Sep 2, 2009 4:26am
it hasn't failed yet has it? looks like its still trying to sort it self out ?
  • #42,846
  • Sep 2, 2009 4:43am Sep 2, 2009 4:43am
Quoting gasgas
Hey guys

Just thinking why this pin failed!?

Should be order deleted couse next bar after pin didnt triger the order?
Hi Gasgas,

You are trading against the trend....sometimes they come off but trading with the trend always gives you better odds

Cheers

Dave
  • #42,847
  • Sep 2, 2009 4:56am Sep 2, 2009 4:56am
Quoting gasgas
Hey guys

Just thinking why this pin failed!?

Should be order deleted couse next bar after pin didnt triger the order?
Some people say that the setup is fine, as long as it hasnt been invalidated (like price going past the nose of the pin, for instance).

Other people (Mike falls into this camp, I believe) kill the trade if the next bar doesnt trigger it.

I am in the second group. For me, a pin bar is a momentum play, I want a nice hard break. And if it hasnt broken my way in the next bar, I lose confidence that the momentum is still there... and so I kill it. It might work, but I figure why bother with something I dont have complete faith in when I can just move onto the next setup.

It's up to you really, whatever suits you, your trading style and your personality.



(oh, and I think your pin probably had trouble because it went against a very strong trend, and wasnt a very large bar compared to the last couple. But I wouldnt have seen it as a failed pin, it was just one that never got triggered)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,848
  • Sep 2, 2009 5:08am Sep 2, 2009 5:08am
If the next bar touches your entry point, 10pips above/below your high/low respectively, and retraces back, where would you exit your position, taking into account your stop loss is quite large, assuming trading on the dailies?
Quoting joelcf
Some people say that the setup is fine, as long as it hasnt been invalidated (like price going past the nose of the pin, for instance).

Other people (Mike falls into this camp, I believe) kill the trade if the next bar doesnt trigger it.

I am in the second group. For me, a pin bar is a momentum play, I want a nice hard break. And if it hasnt broken my way in the next bar, I lose confidence that the momentum is still there... and so I kill it. It might work, but I figure why bother with something I dont have complete faith in when I can just move...
  • #42,849
  • Sep 2, 2009 5:58am Sep 2, 2009 5:58am
Quoting StoragePro
AUDCAD 4Hr
Saw that. Good spot. Close was a little weak for me giving it that half OB/half neutral bar look. But can't argue with the location.

Also trading that pair intraday gives me the willies.
  • #42,850
  • Sep 2, 2009 7:09am Sep 2, 2009 7:09am
Quoting dogfight
If the next bar touches your entry point, 10pips above/below your high/low respectively, and retraces back, where would you exit your position, taking into account your stop loss is quite large, assuming trading on the dailies?
To be honest, that is a really tricky one.

First, I'd want to check for any news that might have sent it that way. Check other pairs with the two currencies to see how they are reacting. If there is something big that has changed since I placed the order, and I get a high probability it will go for a full loss, I'd kill it.

Barring that, I would double check my entry - is there a big PPZ i missed (aka the aqua line)? Is there opposite PA on a higher timeframe? Did I miss a huge round number?

I dont want to take a full bar loss. If it retraces hard against me, I would look for any kind of zone (ppz, round number) that might stop the retracement and send it back the way I want, and tuck my stop behind there. Lastly, I'd probably look at the PA on a lower timeframe (4H, maybe 1H), and if it looked like it was going pear shaped, cut my losses short.


Havent had to yet. If you pick your trades right, it should be pretty rare.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,851
  • Sep 2, 2009 8:14am Sep 2, 2009 8:14am
Quoting joelcf
...I dont want to take a full bar loss. If it retraces hard against me, I would look for any kind of zone (ppz, round number) that might stop the retracement and send it back the way I want, and tuck my stop behind there. Lastly, I'd probably look at the PA on a lower timeframe (4H, maybe 1H), and if it looked like it was going pear shaped, cut my losses short...
(Joel, this is not intended to pick on you or your post. It just brings up a topic that I've never understood.)
This is the part that always baffles me in trade management. Profitable experienced traders set initial stops at places where they never intend to let the price get to... What I mean is, some traders place the stop at the opposite end of the bar with the intention to exit the position before it gets to that stop. I've heard James does this. Not sure about others.

My questions to those that manage trades this way:
1. Do you only intend to move your stop up (ie, not take a full bar loss) if the trade moves slightly in your favor and then against you quickly? This was the case described above, to which Joel was replying. Or do you plan to move your stops closer Anytime the trade is going against you (even if it's a slow movement against you).
2. Is there a reason you don't look for round numbers, ppz, etc prior to entering, and putting your initial stop there (even if you position size based on full bar stop?) That would allow you to walk away from the trade and wouldn't have to 'manage' it until you are ready to move stop to b/e (or take profit)...
For this second question: For example, say we are risking 1%/trade. We normally position size based on full bar stop. Ok, fine. So we do that. But we are uncomfortable taking a full bar loss. So we place the stop at the bottom of a bar, but then if it goes against us, we get out for a quick, small 30 pip loss. To me, it would make more sense to put the initial stop at -30 from entry, thus taking some emotional decision making out of your hands when the trade is quickly going against you. Managing like I have outlined, you would position size for a 1% risk, but you would have only a fraction of that truly at risk (because you would place initial stop closer to entry)...And my understanding is that is the goal of 'cutting losses short'...

I should note that I don't particularily care for discretion in my trades (I'm sure most of you are saying, duh Josh!). Also, I am of the strong belief that emotions can ruin trades much more often than can help them, and therefore, eliminating emotional, time sensitive, decision making from the trade management is one of my top objectives when designing my management strategies. I should also note that once I am more experienced and have a stronger confidence in PA and my abilities, I might be more open to a more active management style of exit management. But for now... I'm trying to keep the impact of my emotions in a trade to a minimum.

Looking forward to hearing from those that trade this way. I know there are infinite ways to manage trades, but this one boggles me more than most.

Josh
  • #42,852
  • Sep 2, 2009 8:39am Sep 2, 2009 8:39am
Thanks 4 all responces guys.

I totally agree about the trend, there is strong 4weeks down trend on daily chart, looking that way, no trade. I didn't trade it, but the reason I mabey would trade it, would be, that pin break would happen 30-40pips above 150.level which should act as support but somehow didn't.

Yep Joelcf, I'm with you on that, if next bar doesn't break clearly some confidence on pin is lost...it depends how that candle closes but I usually kill the order.
  • #42,853
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:28am Sep 2, 2009 9:28am
Good morning from San Francisco. No fog today. Nice.

AUDCAD update from last night.

It is in the first trouble area - pull stops to BE at least if you are in it - RIGHT?
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42,854
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:31am Sep 2, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Jduester
I thought the same thing....
Corrected my fill today to what my TP was placed at... so 'only' made 2R...
  • #42,855
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:39am Sep 2, 2009 9:39am
Quoting StoragePro
Good morning from San Francisco. No fog today. Nice.

AUDCAD update from last night.

It is in the first trouble area - pull stops to BE at least if you are in it - RIGHT?
may i ask you which ma you use? 365 ema and 150 ema?

thanks
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #42,856
  • Sep 2, 2009 9:40am Sep 2, 2009 9:40am
Quoting Jduester
(Joel, this is not intended to pick on you or your post....
Hey Josh,

I know I am not Joel, but I was doing this as well. So maybe it can help you hearing my thought while doing it.

Placing the initial stop below the pin (classic stop) is giving your trade place to move before it goes in your favor. If the price retraces immediately after I placed my trade, it's just a looser trade. But if it went in my favor, got to the first area of trouble (as expected), and retraced - then I'll never take a full bar loss on it.

There are many traders who like to give there trades a bit more place at the beginning (like Mike). So they just move there stop slightly when it gets to the first trouble area (or any other trailing stop method), instead of moving their stop straight away to BE (like James does).

So basically I think you have an excellent question, and my personal answer based on how I do this, will be that after price got to the first trouble area, it makes no difference between moving your stop slightly, or just monitoring the trade and killing it early - that is the same - in both ways you are not taking a full bar loss after price reached 1st trouble area.
On the other hand, if price retraced before hitting the first trouble area - I will probably not kill it.

I have the same believe as you on emotions that can ruin trades more often than improve them. So my personal preference will be to just move my stop slightly (where exactly = depends on the different situation on each trade and the way I plan to handle my stops. trail, targets,etc).

Again, I'm not Joel, but I am doing the same...so thought maybe it can help you in such a way

Ben
  • #42,857
  • Sep 2, 2009 10:02am Sep 2, 2009 10:02am
Damn Josh, I'd love to answer you here , but that questions got so much going on I'm getting a headache reading it. lol

I totally understand why you are asking all that though.

The best answer I can give of myself is to suggest that you filter down to trades that you know are going to be easier to manage. It's pretty easy to watch a trade move against you when you are confident you have chosen the absolute best place to take a punt on. Where there is a good clear run ahead of them. Then you don't have to worry about those other trades that stress you out about whether to manage them once they've only moved a little in your favour.

A real confidence booster when managing a trade is seeing strong "tails" etc develop on the price action that's bouncing off your protective levels that you are trailing with. (you can pretty much look at the chart and see that people are flooding the market with orders every time it reaches one of these points.) Assuming you have a -50 pip stop. ...If there is say a 30 pip movement in your favour on E/U and in the recent waves of bars you see tails formed at the -10pip level (to your trade entry) then you move your original stop up to just behind that -10 pip area. ...Not Break Even yet. (...Unless you decided before hand that 30 pips was the target for the trade , of course.)

You want to take discretionary out of it?? ...Well you should, by now, be able to read good S/R bounces surely? Just use them! ...nothing discretionary about that once you can read them. Have a mechanical idea as to how many points you will place the stop behind the most extreme tail. (Once again by 'Tails' I'm talking about major influence occurring on that level (or area) whenever it's hit.)

And choose trades that work with that style.

Trade other styles as you learn them.

Quoting Jduester
(Joel, this is not intended to pick on you or your post....
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #42,858
  • Sep 2, 2009 10:03am Sep 2, 2009 10:03am
Quoting benji533
Hey Jazflyer,

Actually this is a nice flag pattern. I didn't play it mainly because it is against the main trend.
Secondly The pin is too small for me. However that divergence makes sense to me.

You have missed another trouble area, which I have marked with a blue horizontal line. Check out how if acted as a price flip zone.

IMO, if you took that trade as a breakout trade, you can just trail your stops after you are in a free trade. If using PPZs and PA bars to move your stops makes you a bit confused, try trailing with Mike's 2 bar stop method....
Cool. It stalled as predicted.

Hey Jazflyer, hope you have at least moved your stop to BE at the line I have pointed out here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42626

It isn't yet a failed trade, but even on winners you can predict where price will retrace...so you can be ready for it and not freak out when it happens, or move your stop to BE at that point, or just close the position.
But never be surprised and take a full bar lose loss. In this case the pin is really really small...that fact even rises the odds of this retrace to occur...so we must be ready for it and act accordingly....that also means not to play these puddle bars at all (James would say "treat it as a business").

Hope it helps.

Ben
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  • #42,859
  • Sep 2, 2009 11:11am Sep 2, 2009 11:11am
Hey Mike...hope you will see this post.

I had been monitoring a breakout pattern on daily. When it broke, the only PA it produced was a pin on the 15min chart.

Basically it is not trade-able for me. Logically thinking...it is not so smart to enter a breakout of daily bars, based on a 15min pin bar. A 15min bar has no value of data next to the daily bars. Based on this, I have decided that the maximum I'll allow my self to go down in time frames in order to spot a PA confirmation bar will be 2 time frames difference.
For example - If I have my pattern on daily, so the lower I will get is the 1H chart.

Because I know it's your method and you probably have been trading it for a while, it will be nice to hear your take about this. If it's ok...

Ben
  • #42,860
  • Sep 2, 2009 11:13am Sep 2, 2009 11:13am
When I have OB, IB, PB DBLHC etc I should enter them on 50% ret right ?
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