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4H Box Breakout

  • #3,101
  • Sep 1, 2009 8:44am Sep 1, 2009 8:44am
Your humor is awesome.
  • #3,102
  • Sep 1, 2009 9:37am Sep 1, 2009 9:37am
Interesting thread, and a big thanks to Ace and the other contributors.
I've just finished reading the whole thing, and aside from the inevitable 50+ pages of "which candle is it" etc, it's good stuff.
I ran a broadly similar system on GBP/CHF on a 1 hour setting last year.
Had a box custom made(Ervent?).
Performed brilliantly until the market dynamic shifted, then I got taken out back and slaughtered!
However, the 4 hour setting may well make a substantial difference.
My entry time will differ slightly as I'm UK based and like to get some sleep, and my SL's will be occasionally different too. I tend to allow multiple 'small' losses rather than singular big, nasty ones. I'll keep any differences to myself, though, rather than cluttering up the place.
Cheers.
  • #3,103
  • Sep 1, 2009 10:11am Sep 1, 2009 10:11am
Pharoah,

Concerning your hedging orders of setting an opposing pending trade(call this T2) at breakeven of already existing order(call this T1), what happens if the opposing trade(T2) is opened then retraces back enough to T1(T2 would have closed at this point) and then it retraces back again against the T1 direction?

Regards
MSL10
  • #3,104
  • Edited 10:46am Sep 1, 2009 10:42am | Edited 10:46am
I went back to Danno's data to do a little more analysis. This data leapt out.

2009 ytd Pips Won: 6729 Total Pips Possible: 16607 41% won
2008 Pips Won: 8006 Total Pips Possible: 20635 39% won
2207 Pips Won: 7737 Total Pips Possible: 18358 42% won

This is my understanding of the data. Total Pips Possible (Danno's Max Profit) includes for example a run to 8x maximum for a trade. Pips Win ( or Danno's P/L) includes the pips won when profit was taken. So while max pips might have been 850 pips you might have waited through a retracement and closed the trade at 410 pips.

Stating the obvious this leaves a lot of pips on the table.

I'll be following my usual strategy of closing 1/2 my position at TP1 and setting the remainder to BE+20. Then I'll try using a trade manager to execute a 100 pip SL (Every 100 pips it moves the SL 100 pips in the right direction). This will hopefully allow me to keep more pips on larger runs.

Other options might be a trailing stop or pharaoh's proposed approach to exits which I haven't really worked with

This system nails the entry but the exit needs work.

Sandy
  • #3,105
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:11am Sep 1, 2009 11:11am
Quoting shiko
This pimp gonna burst, but in what direction. The strategy is great but timing to start was bad. Some guys were lucky to start 2-3 months earlier. Anyway, the whole point is to stick with rules in good or bad times. Keep losses small and let profits run.
50% stop loss I am testing and I have feeling due to high R:R ratio when market chooses direction I will be back in the money. Outside of 50% stop loss, I follow revised by Danno96 rules:
TP1. Move stop loss to BE+20 pips.
After reaching TP2 , move it to TP1 and let it run.
shiko,
Are you making just 1 trade per box side, or are you placing 2 trades per side and taking 1/2 of your lots off the table at TP1?

Thanks.
  • #3,106
  • Sep 1, 2009 12:41pm Sep 1, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting Bobcat2
shiko,
Are you making just 1 trade per box side, or are you placing 2 trades per side and taking 1/2 of your lots off the table at TP1?

Thanks.

100% stop loss I made 1 trade per side, but will do now only one if first is lost.
50% stop loss, I am making as many as I get signals. I set 2 , one on each side. One got hit and lost, I set another and another.
Especially on short side. I am betting that one of those signals will bring breakout.
Hopefully it is happening now. Down trend line is intact.
Even if I take TP2, I will cover losses and take 1% profit. If this happenes of course.
  • #3,107
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:18pm Sep 1, 2009 1:18pm
Question for any of you guys that "crunched the numbers"; How many trades (%) went to TP1 ?
Thanks
krly
  • #3,108
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:36pm Sep 1, 2009 1:36pm
With the system, or this week?
  • #3,109
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:49pm Sep 1, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting nubchai

I'll be following my usual strategy of closing 1/2 my position at TP1 and setting the remainder to BE+20. Then I'll try using a trade manager to execute a 100 pip SL (Every 100 pips it moves the SL 100 pips in the right direction). This will hopefully allow me to keep more pips on larger runs.



This system nails the entry but the exit needs work.

Sandy
Sounds interesting, where would you find such a trade manager?

regards
Jesper
  • #3,110
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:02pm Sep 1, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting Jesper
Sounds interesting, where would you find such a trade manager?

regards
Jesper
Sounds like a basic trailing stop to me.
  • #3,111
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:04pm Sep 1, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting Jesper
Sounds interesting, where would you find such a trade manager?

regards
Jesper

Jesper this is the one I use http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=89371

Sandy
  • #3,112
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:07pm Sep 1, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting wrenski
Sounds like a basic trailing stop to me.
What I like about the jumping stop is I can combine it with moving the SL to BE + 20 as well as closing partial lots if I want to. Also after each increment the SL is fixed ~ actually changed to the new price. With a trailing stop I don't know how you'd do that

Sandy
  • #3,113
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:12pm Sep 1, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting nubchai
What I like about the jumping stop is I can combine it with moving the SL to BE + 20 as well as closing partial lots if I want to. Also after each increment the SL is fixed ~ actually changed to the new price. With a trailing stop I don't know how you'd do that

Sandy

Oh, Okay...I see what you are saying now.
  • #3,114
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:17pm Sep 1, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting bhamble
Your humor is awesome.
The check's in the mail, my friend.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,115
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:20pm Sep 1, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting krly
Question for any of you guys that "crunched the numbers"; How many trades (%) went to TP1 ?
Thanks
krly
krly

I looked at 2009. Danno's data goes to 8-10-09. It shows that out of 49 trades:

9 made it to TP1 only - 18%

32 made it to TP1 or greater - 65% (this includes the 9 above)
17 didn't hit TP1 - 35%


Pretty darn good imo !!


Sandy
  • #3,116
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:29pm Sep 1, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting shiko
Yeah, I was seeing these levels too. But this is mechanical system. what if there were a break out?
and 170 is not that much for G/J. I was scared to contra trend this pair with S/R cause of its violent nature. If it breaks out we are in the money.
Thats true Shiko, this system is definetly mechanical and it is simple where you can set and forget but with a few small filters one can limit losses. I rather be right being wrong than being right being right. This is just the way I limit loss because it is not how much you can make and how many times you are right but how you can limit your losses and preserve your capital. So many traders focus so much time on being right that they do not allocate enough time to study about being wrong. And I am not saying that I look at reasons why I shouldn't enter but this week as per my rules and onliy my rules the box was big enough that the probability of it hitting 4xTP would be very low and this is a probabilities game. And in a few post back I mentioned the confluences of events happening to make me be a little cautious.

As mechanical as a system can be, it is always good to have human eyes study and judge a situation as well.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #3,117
  • Sep 1, 2009 2:29pm Sep 1, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting shiko
Yes, I am on vacation starting this Saturday and will be back only October 4.
Please don't go Shiko . . . who am I going to tease? You're man enough to take it (even if you did lose that 1%).

Seriously, have a good time and leave some pips for us.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,118
  • Edited 8:28pm Sep 1, 2009 2:39pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting Fms
2 consecutive full losses ... I know itīs against the original rules, but how probable it is to have a 3rd consecutive loss ?

I mean, anyone would take the short order again for a second time ?

The Legend of Trader Scott and Whipsaw Mountain . . .

Once upon a time, Trader Scott decided to climb Whipsaw Mountain to seek the magic Pip. Almost immediately, he was attacked by a runaway bull. Wounded but not willing to give up, Trader Scott recuperated quickly and one day later was on Whipsaw Mountain again. Out of nowhere appeared a wild bear, and again Trader Scott was wounded.

Trader Scott was not one to give up easily, and asked himself "Should I head to Whipsaw Mountain for a third time this week?"

Just then Princess Pips appeared to Trader Scott. She told him "I will make you a deal, Trader Scott. If you promise not to venture onto Whipsaw Mountain more than twice a week, I will protect you and be your companion for life."

Since Princess Pips was quite comely , Trader Scott found it easy to accept her offer. And they lived happily ever after.

Does that answer your question, Fms?

*I just chose the name Trader Scott out of the blue, so no offense to any real Trader Scott out there.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #3,119
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:04pm Sep 1, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting yen44x
Please don't go Shiko . . . who am I going to tease? You're man enough to take it (even if you did lose that 1%).

Seriously, have a good time and leave some pips for us.
I wonder who got that valuable 1%
  • #3,120
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:09pm Sep 1, 2009 4:09pm
new to this forum, spent bout 20 hours STRAIGHT reading..i have used this system on some historical data and liked what i saw...however there were many false signals. are there any other indicators u wud recommend to filter these false signals?
stochastic looked pretty usefull when i looked at past few weeks on the gbp jpy.

also, i know many people surely asked about this, but i just cant read any more at this time, but do you keep trailing your stop loss or simply put the stop loss e.g on a bull market, on top of the box the price has just broken from?

thx
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