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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #4,261
  • Aug 31, 2009 8:15am Aug 31, 2009 8:15am
Hello to all,

The main up swing is between 1.4257 and 14300. Price has been ranging within these 43 pips since and the question that I ask myself is whether to wait for a clear breakout of the original swing or play the action between the high/low of the swing. I guess some will play the noise and make some pips(high risk) others will wait for a more clear direction. I do not subscribe to taking every new high or low within such a small swing, especially with no major news and London not active today.

Good luck to all
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #4,262
  • Aug 31, 2009 8:49am Aug 31, 2009 8:49am
ok guys,
following to what moneda's post..
what he just mentioned above is valid and it's a matter of perferance..
however.. I tell you what i do and why..
I stick to may game plan.. and that is.. taking every FCR.. why? bcz 1) i get into the action before the reall breakout sooner and will fall into a driver sit when it break through.. 2) if it does not break the other way I will lose less bcz my stop is smaller due to quicker entery.. believe it or not you will end up with alot less nasty fakeout if you take every FCR.. but must rely on solid expectancy skill.. vs .. if i wait for the up/down swing to break.. 1) it may not happen for a long time.. 2) if it does happen I got have my hard sl either at the other side of up/down swing or bottom of PB if it has created one.. I think personaly there is more risk involve with that..

however the chart below is where i would take my shot based on FCR inside the box for the last 3hrs.. on the first one most likely could have made some money and second still be running and sl at the moment be under lates FCR.
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  • #4,263
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:17am Aug 31, 2009 9:17am
hope everyone is in this long trade right now
  • #4,264
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:22am Aug 31, 2009 9:22am
got out of it right now for 2% gain (risking 1% as usual) , so far for the day up 3.00%
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  • #4,265
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:28am Aug 31, 2009 9:28am
the yankeesssssss coming through again.. nice..

would you rather got into this action on the blue shade or yellow one?
obviuosly now after the fact you say the blue shape for longer gain.. but what if it would have gone negative.. triggered your buy order and heads back bearish.. would you like to get toped picked? (yellow shape) and have your hard SL hit in the middle of that up and down swing and then price heads back bulish.. or would get middle pick? (blue shape) and force the price to break the down L/L line and have smaller sl to be hit?

I don't know be the judge... however i hope you made money in this beautiful runner.. thats what its all about..

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  • #4,266
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:37am Aug 31, 2009 9:37am
Quoting fxachilies
the yankeesssssss coming through again.. nice..

would you rather got into this action on the blue shade or yellow one?
obviuosly now after the fact you say the blue shape for longer gain.. but what if it would have gone negative.. triggered your buy order and heads back bearish.. would you like to get toped picked? (yellow shape) and have your hard SL hit in the middle of that up and down swing and then price heads back bulish.. or would get middle pick? (blue shape) and force the price to break the down L/L line and have smaller sl to be hit?...

blue shape looks good !! but taking every shot shouldn't you have been in the short 1.4269?
  • #4,267
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:38am Aug 31, 2009 9:38am
my sl at 4227... banking 42 pips and letting it ride..
  • #4,268
  • Aug 31, 2009 9:46am Aug 31, 2009 9:46am
Quoting anthony500
blue shape looks good !! but taking every shot shouldn't you have been in the short 1.4269?
NO.. because I am still in the short trade based on my last trade.. price created fcr 4288 and second attempt failed and price head back down..
BUT..
lets say this was not the scenario and I would take the bearish FCR.. the worst could happen to me was -12 pips based on exiting at next FCR., but most likely i would have ended up with BE on that one and still took my shot at every break..

Guys, taking evey shot with sound expectancy skill is not risky but not taking every shot is.. you may not understand this now but you will in sometime if you stick with this..
  • #4,269
  • Aug 31, 2009 10:49am Aug 31, 2009 10:49am
Quoting anthony500
got out of it right now for 2% gain (risking 1% as usual) , so far for the day up 3.00%
Nice trading Anthony. Especially during the very tight range earlier today.
Survive and Preserve
  • #4,270
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:04am Aug 31, 2009 11:04am
Hello to all,

Fx,

I think that your fcr approach has proven to you and others that it works...I use it at times..... my point is that I think it is beneficial to this thread to show some contrast to the hypertrading that you use with the more basic and perhaps slower approach of the 1-2-3 method. Not everyone here is capable nor suited for the speed of decision/discretion of the fcr, especially if you are new to this thread. As far as the hardstop being larger with the 1-2-3 not doubt about it, but one should be applying the expectancy factor with the same discretion as with the fcr. One does not have to wait for the hardstop to be hit. I am not sure which style is more profitable, I guess a lot has to do with the trader's state of mind and skill level.Today for example, one could have profited as much as 65pips(+ or -) had one waited for the continuation/breakout of the upswing. Anyway, we have no significant disagreement here... I am very appreciative of you contribution and hope that it continues for a long time.

Good luck to all
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #4,271
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:04am Aug 31, 2009 11:04am
ok.. now I play #1.. if price acts funny I will bank for max amount.. now its exit time unless its a clear/strong break through..
  • #4,272
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:36am Aug 31, 2009 11:36am
Quoting moneda
Hello to all,

Fx,

I think that your fcr approach has proven to you and others that it works...I use it at times..... my point is that I think it is beneficial to this thread to show some contrast to the hypertrading that you use with the more basic and perhaps slower approach of the 1-2-3 method. Not everyone here is capable nor suited for the speed of decision/discretion of the fcr, especially if you are new to this thread. As far as the hardstop being larger with the 1-2-3 not doubt about it, but one should be applying the expectancy factor...
Oh please don't get me wrong buddy, there is no disagreement at all.. we are on the same page.
about the newbies.. I have said manytimes "one step out of times".. one should pace themselves and work there way up.. 1-2-3 is our bread and butter (BB) and FCR is a more advance level of that, thats all.. requires quicker thinking/reaction and sounder expectancy skill.. with enough practise and screen time devotion it should come around.

about which style is more profitable..
Moneda & everyone..
I have earned this in the hard way as to testing it with big time money on the line and I have find out that FCR is much more profitable..
why? bcz..
it gets you in early.. your stops are smaller.. results in much more favolrable RR.. you don't miss any oppourtunities (higher chances of catching runners).. and most importantly it turns to be all about PA and no time for prediction and other distractions.
must spread the load wisely..

try it religiously and you will see..

just a result of my hard earnd and costly experience.. I am offering it to you guys for free and boost your confidence so you can apply it and find out for yourself.

Good luck..
  • #4,273
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:19pm Aug 31, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting fxachilies
would you rather got into this action on the blue shade or yellow one?
obviuosly now after the fact you say the blue shape for longer gain.. but what if it would have gone negative.. triggered your buy order and heads back bearish.. would you like to get toped picked? (yellow shape) and have your hard SL hit in the middle of that up and down swing and then price heads back bulish.. or would get middle pick? (blue shape) and force the price to break the down L/L line and have smaller sl to be hit?

I don't know be the judge... however i hope you...

Hey Fx,

This is another great post and sorry for going off track every so slightly but it is a little like deja vue for me. I used to work with a good trader who was a bit of a maverick and one of his pet comments was exactly the same as you have quoted above - he was always screaming at people trying to get them to understand that the best place was to get into the move before it really took off rather than joining after the party is was full swing.

It is such an obvious thing you have stated and yet so powerful, for those that understand it and can implement it. I mean who wouldn`t want to be in the cockpit already in the move so that when the rocket blasts off you are already getting ready to off load the first contracts and holding the rest for who knows maybe the moon ?

Spare a thought for the souls who are trying to clamber onto the sides as the rocket goes into launch mode and blasts off.. They will fall off right .I mean we aren`t even talking about the increased risk reward you just picked up as well, by adopting your approach.

I want to say one more thing reference the question of taking every FCR , with no exceptions, for me makes things a lot easier. How many times have you worked with people who have a not bad strategy who second guess it, who don`t take "this one cos of xyz" etc etc we have all been there. Cos its this or cos its that.

What you are doing by taking every break is simply ensuring - as you have said many times - that when this baby blows you are guarenteed to be in on the move. How much better can it get than that ?

Anyone who is still wrestling with this concept ask yourself this question, how much easier is it to:

- decide on some random, optional and moving event whether or not to take the trade ? Based on what, gut feel, news, time of day etc etc ?

or
- take all of them come what may, irresepctive?

Has to be "take all of them". The first option kills your emotions and breeds issues like wanting to get even with the market when it doesn`t oblige your decision making. Throws you around like a ship on the rocks.

Thats it.

Thanks
Survive and Preserve
  • #4,274
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:38pm Aug 31, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting moneda
Hello to all,

Fx,

I think that your fcr approach has proven to you and others that it works...I use it at times..... my point is that I think it is beneficial to this thread to show some contrast to the hypertrading that you use with the more basic and perhaps slower approach of the 1-2-3 method. Not everyone here is capable nor suited for the speed of decision/discretion of the fcr, especially if you are new to this thread. As far as the hardstop being larger with the 1-2-3 not doubt about it, but one should be applying the expectancy factor...
HI Moneda,

I hadn`t refreshed my page and therefore hasn`t seen your reply.

Just to say that I don`t believe there is a right or wrong approach, but more like a preferred goal approach - this depends on a person`s ability to understand and trade the concept and his/her willingness to practice it.

I want to add just one thing, when you say

" Not everyone here is capable nor suited for the speed of decision/discretion of the fcr, especially if you are new to this thread. As far as the hardstop being larger with the 1-2-3 not doubt about it, but one s"

This is absolutely correct, but IMHO people should working towards the "every break" method FX uses.

Last digressions:

Re the speed, I have worked at a house where the speed during news events was a 2 or 5 second charts - it isn`t as hard as it sounds when you practice, practice and practice. We used simulators to speed up 1 min charts to practice, as welletc etc etc People can do that that over time.

This game is competitive and it depends on how much you want it, if you practice and stick at it ,the 5 mins with evry FCR will be fine for most, so I would aim for it if I was a newcomer - over time of course. Think about Tiger Woods, of course bags of raw talent, but I read that he hits proportionally many more balls on the practice ground than most other pros ? Anyone thing this has a direct relationship with his success ?


Ok that was it, see you all 2morrow at the London session.

Good trading to all and thanks for the great posting.
Survive and Preserve
  • #4,275
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:42pm Aug 31, 2009 1:42pm
Fx,

Just got back and read your enlightening posts... You are right we are on the same page and newbies need to read the whole thread in order to have the perspective that some of us have.... Keep on trucking my friend!
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #4,276
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:43pm Aug 31, 2009 1:43pm
Just one trade today as I had errands
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Survive and Preserve
  • #4,277
  • Aug 31, 2009 1:46pm Aug 31, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting PaulLangham
HI Moneda,

I hadn`t refreshed my page and therefore hasn`t seen your reply.

Just to say that I don`t believe there is a right or wrong approach, but more like a preferred goal approach - this depends on a person`s ability to understand and trade the concept and his/her willingness to practice it.

I want to add just one thing, when you say

" Not everyone here is capable nor suited for the speed of decision/discretion of the fcr, especially if you are new to this thread. As far as the hardstop being larger with the 1-2-3 not doubt about...

Paul,

I agree with you totally... I am glad to see that more people are sharing their perspectives and experiences. I am tickled to see the spirit of cooperation that exists in this thread...

Good luck to all
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #4,278
  • Edited 4:55pm Aug 31, 2009 4:44pm | Edited 4:55pm
Ok Guys..
I can't say enough about today.. it's has been a awsome fun day for me.. and we have had some great postings, questions and issues being discussed.. great comments by Moneda and Paul as well as others.. heck we even had feb here today with his golden post..

I can not resist to show you guys once more time the benefit of taking every FCR.. today is a great example as it is most days..
taking action on every FCR break will take you to promise land when market is ranging and takes you to the moon obviously when market is trending..
what do I mean? check it out..
I want you to look at my chart.. there is 9 possible trades.. I took them all as i was busy trading my DB account mostly today..
I want you to go ahead and disregard the number 4 trade profit wise for now.. (the runner)
the other 8 trades are pretty much during range time.. do me a favor and do the count and see if you still wouldn't have made money?
for the record personally, I have made more than my daily minimum goal (+50) on those 8 trades ranging time..
so what am I trying to get at? here it is..
you can breakeven at worst and even make money during range time "while" pursuing runners or big breaks, when taking constant shots in a constant changing invironment..
now.. making money with those 8 trades is not nearly as important as the chance that you have given yourself to be positioned early in the cockpit ready for the takeoff as Paul put it so nicely earlier..
so this style gives you double advantage..

To be super successful you got to bank runners..
now.. I am going to let you in on a secret.. .. its simple but it worths a million dollars of goods.. lol.. you should know it by now but here it is anyways..
you only endup with runners and big breaks, IF you take action on those other 8 trades during the range time.. otherwise you simply won't be in the mix of things to endup with any runners.. if you do!! its by luck and it won't be consistant.. and at best you be in it late and won't get the whole enchilada, thats of course if you don't get toped or bottomed picked.. very important.. you got to take max advantage out of the ride most times too.. so, it makes it even more vital to get in early before it's going to takeoff..
the single movment of the todays runner was around 80 pips and I endup banking 68 of it.. that is superb my friends.. closing the day for 112pips..

bottomline..
neccessay ingredients are:
-spreading the load wisely.
-solid expectency skill.. play #1&2.. control greed.
-staying close to PA as the one and only indicator.
-But.. more importantly then all the above.. pulling the trigger on every darn FCR.. period.

see you all tomorrow before London open..


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  • #4,279
  • Aug 31, 2009 11:58pm Aug 31, 2009 11:58pm
short at moment based on last fcr.. lets see what happens..

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  • #4,280
  • Sep 1, 2009 12:27am Sep 1, 2009 12:27am
Was short with you except I closed out at +3 because price didnt pierce the LL. Not sure if I am playing this right.

I missed the major move last night as I accidentally fell asleep. Wife asked me to lie down with her for a second, next thing I knew it was 2 in the mornig, lights still on in the house everywhere and I had missed the move . That is life , there will be more chances. I do feel I am reading this better though. In for the long haul tonight

Lets do it.

Thanks again for your awesome support FX.
Quoting fxachilies
short at moment based on last fcr.. lets see what happens..

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Survive and Preserve
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