Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

ok, although diffifcult as you of course know
my question about changing direction for the BOSS after major TL break, is it a MUST to retest TL ?

I keep a private blog of my trades to help with my discipline and its a record of my trades. I do chart analysis on Sundays for the week ahead because it is a good price action exercise for me and it helps me choose from the things that I watch.
I am not always right but it is a good exercise to look back and see what I was thinking a week ago.
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It looks like some possibilities this week with quite a few pairs at key levels for breakouts, particularly a dollar break, but as we still have another week of August holidays to endure I am not going to get too excited.

Sterling weakness across the board but if the dollar falls off then GBPUSD will be an ugly sideways trade and other crosses will have more opportunity. Commodity currencies are stronger than continentals. I'm not sure how the landslide Democrat win in the Japan elections will play out with regard to the Yen. The charts indicate more yen strength for me but there could be a wobble.

Indices ... I am incredulous at the crap stocks that are leading this rally but if I try and look past my bearish bias and purely at the chart then ... the uptrend is clear and we are stalling at a technical fib level. If I look past my bearish bias on the daily, or I did not know what the chart was I would have to say we could be building a base for a move higher to 1130. Not a trade for me anyhow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4.../s%26p+4hr.gif


Dollar Index broke below 78 on the strange moves of Thursday afternoon but failed to hold below, is back at the bottom of its range and is bullish short term, although it remains in a clear downtrend. A lot of long dollar positions must have been stopped out on Thursday. Crude, Vix and commodity index indicate some short term USD bullishness but into major resistance levels where this could reverse. Vix moving higher should be bullish for the USD.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4...00/wti+dly.gif

Crude is bullish but weakening, after failing to follow through on the breakout and large bullish engulfing candle of last week and is unable to break and hold above $75. It remains in a clear uptrend but is stuck at resistance level of June highs. Holding above $70 suggests a base forming for another push higher. A break of $70 and the ascending trendline suggests a pullback to 66.50. Having said all that I am still bearish, maybe it is my bias or that it could close above 61.8 of the last weeks swing, I am not sure but I am going to watch for lower timeframe opportunities, or trade a break of the weekly inside bar.

Gold is another weekly bullish hammer and bullish daily has broken out of a short term wedge although longer term wedge is intact. Failure to break 960 means it is stuck short term and could put in a short term double top at this level. A break and hold above 960 means a retest of the resistance line at 965. A break above 965 or below 934 would get me excited.

Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish but coming up on the big 15.00 level so not a buy for me. Above 15.00 means a retest of the highs at 16.225, Failure to break that puts in a lower high and changes the picture. I actually like this short off 15 and a descending daily resistance line forming.

AUDUSD weekly bullish hammer but a daily bearish shooting star indicates a pullback before continuing higher or more sideways. It broke out of the bull flag, is trading above 61.8fib level and made it to 7 pips off the high for the year but could not make new highs (yet). Looks set to continue to do well vs when USD weakness continues and a buy on dips.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4...200/au+dly.gif

NZDUSD Weekly doji, daily IB - Sideways in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00. Not a trade at the moment.

NZDJPY Weekly sideways, daily sideways after bullish hammers failed to engage, but pair remains in uptrend. Might be an interesting short below 63.300 but not the best trade at the moment.

AUDNZD Weekly sideways (uptrend has stalled) and daily has broken out of range and ascending support line and looks an interesting short at this point or off the 1.2350 level.

USDCAD Bearish - Failed to break the 1.10 level looks set to consolidate between 1.08-1.10 before continuing lower to retest Aug lows.

CADJPY Weekly sideways after bullish hammer did not engage yet, daily is bearish with lower highs and a bearish candle Friday. We are sitting bang on 50fib level from Sep08 highs and Jan 09 lows. Uptrend is still intact but short term is bearish and a break of the 85 level says we go to 81.60 and a close above 88.500 and we are set to retest highs and 90 level.

EURCAD Weekly sideways in downtrend, daily bullish hammer. No trade, will wait to short off 1.58

GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows. Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies.

GBPUSD Weakest of all the continental currencies, stuck in a range between 1.61 and 1.66. For me (I know others disagree and think support will hold) it has broken and retested ascending support and looks set to break down the head and shoulders neckline and I will get short in anticipation. Beware full moon day Friday could be a pivot day for cable a(no laughing).

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4.../cable+dly.gif

GPBJPY Weekly bearish and daily bearish, this is sitting precariously on long term support line from March lows, I am watching for a break.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4...200/gj+dly.gif

GBPCHF - Very Bearish, has broken down long term support line and my target is 1.66. Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a sell on rallies.

EURGBP - Very Bullish, has broken strongly out of range and target is 90. Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a buy on dips.

EURUSD Sideways but Bullish - EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength, held below an uptrending resistance line. Looks to be making a base for a move higher. However weekly rising wedge/channel is bearish longer term for me and I would sell a break of it.

EURJPY Weekly sideways, daily lower highs and lower lows indicates a turn to bearish and I am looking for a break of 1.33 and I would short in anticipation of it and cut if it failed to break.

EURCHF Weekly and daily bearish, has broken ascending support and all set for lower its a sell.

USDCHF Bearish - took out 1.06 level, and has closed below. Selling a successful retest of 1.06 or 1.0650 from below to target 1.04, watch which way the daily IB breaks.

USDJPY Weekly bearish, daily IB. Still in downtrending channel and back below the 50fib level looks all set to retest July lows at 91.80. I will probably trade daily IB.

USDNOK Bearish - weekly IB but daily is lower highs and lower lows. I like it short, it has broken the 6.00 level but strong support at 5.94 needs to break. I would trade a break of the weekly IB.

Copper (HGV09) - Weekly spinner doji, daily has been rejected off 3.00 level. Is trading above 50fib level and has found support off it (2.745) but into an area of 07 lows and strong resistance at 3.00. I still say could be a very nice short setting up off this level and I will wait for better price action...

Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily doji in a tightening wedge. Sell on rallies I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel.

Sugar (SBV09) Weekly bullish, daily bullish and at new highs. Hard to buy at these levels I would stay out and wait for a pullback to support at 20.00 or 18.00

Cocoa (CCZ09) - Weekly sideways but bullish, daily IB after strongly rejecting 3,000 level. Now resting on an ascending daily support line. A breakdown of the daily IB would break trendline and set up a nice short, and a break of the IB long continues the uptrend. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.

Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly doji below 500 level, daily bearish. Broke and remains below the 500 level I will sell a succesful retest of it from below anticipating a break of the previous low and poss support at 485.

Corn (ZCZ09) - Monthly IB, weekly sideways, daily doji is slow ascending wedge. I would wait to sell a break of the daily ascending trendline from 17Aug anticipating a break of the support at 310 and new lows.

Soy Beans (ZSX09) - Weekly bullish, daily bullish, strong bounce and support off the1000 level and a double bottom. Price is contained in a tightening wedge and looks good for a breakout one way or other...

Coffee (KCZ9) - Monthly and weekly bearish. Nice small IB on daily is an NR7 and a good trade setup for fans of Crabels ORB strategy (I am a fan), In fact it is the narrowest range day for weeks.

Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly doji after pullback in downtrend and new lows. Resistance off 48.00 but I am not sure this is a good enough level. I would prefer to short at 50 or a break of the rising daily support line.

Live Cattle (LEV09) - Bearish, weekly LH, daily bearish. Sell on rallies, strong support at 85.500

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Greetings Strat and the several others on the first bench of this forum.

Well, I am a new (forex) trader and was by temperament drawn to your LT strategy and not the scramble of the M1 to M15 crowd. I do have a fair amount of experience in futures and equities.

So I started reading on THE PATH (not done to be sure) until the repeated msg "don't be a lurker" here hit home. So I registered and am now a Junior Member which is more than correct on trades placed but strikes me as somewhat humorous as one not quite (close though) Strat's age. So Junior it is!

I think I am at a place where Static S/R, Dynamic S/R, the BOSS and Worker, our friends the BUOB/BEOB, the ema tag team of 20/50 and 100/250 make some good sense to me, and, I am tempted to add Shooting Stars and Hammers, but the recent discussion on the forum clearly tells me there will still be many mistakes to be made and nuances to be learned. So . . . I am working at it and reading the current material and continuing from the START of the PATH. (You will notice nothing is yet here on Fibs, momentum or volume although they are not foreign . . . just not familiar enough.)

I am smart enough to know something and wise enough to know it is probably not yet enough to trade . . . but it is getting tempting. PATIENCE, Junior Member!

I'll will try not to clutter up the forum with nonsense that can be read as one moves through the PATH. And I will continue to watch and learn from Strat and his pantheon of stars.

I look forward to my daily education with all of you. Thank you for the journey this far.

David

I might be misunderstanding here but don`t you mean the opposite?

when the BOSS bottoms that means it wants to go up right? So if the worker is supposed to follow the BOSS then we should buy the worker?

Strat how are your boots?

No, it doesn't always happen and a lot of good trades are missed if waiting for a re-test BUT when it happens, fill yer wellies!

Hey Forrest Gump, kid, stay with the PLAN man, and ask any questions you want about anything - we have people DYING to answer your questions.

Nicola,

Please explain to Naws! Muchas grassy ass!

Nancy Sinatra already sang for you!

thanks

Hi elitejets,

Thank you very much for your detailed info. It's amazing,really helpful for newbie like me.

Btw, can i know how do you choose your trade from all these info, what i meant is how do you pick the right one to trade?

Thanks

I picked the ones with lower risk and most likely to work (usually, I am often wrong )
I am short USDJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and crude.
I am long Soy beans and I have an order pending for coffee.
I am still short GBPCHF from 2 weeks ago and will add when I can.
I only put 1% risk on each trade.

Mostly going through all the charts, and then seeing what happened later is a learning exercise for me, even if I don't trade them or watch them all.
Thanks

Errm I am a bit confused here myself actually Boss.

hello strat, its me again with more questions and i will be very glad if you can help me out.

looking at the DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE INDICATOR, please what is the major criteria for drawing these trendlines??

i know you consider the close of a candle but how do you locate the candles to use to draw the trendlines both in a uptrend and downtrend??

i have looked through ao you have drawn yours on some charts and compared it with blackeagles and some others and i cant really figure what candles you consider when you want to draw these lines or how do you know the candles to use for the trendlines

i will be very graeatful if you can help out....and please KEEP ON HELPING TRADERS

green pips to you this week

Please do not take my trendline (DSRI) drawings into consideration as I use them on H4 time frame to trade differently.

But on daily or above time frames (actually for all time frames but since we are mostly dealing with daily and above on this thread), basically you should draw uptrendline by using major swing low closes and downtrendline by using major swing high closes. Hope that helps.

Oh dear. When I put up the Boss and Worker charts I noticed they were a mirror image of each other - they can't really be when you think about it because the time frames are different. Anyway, in true to form Strat style, I made an outrageous statement to see if anyone was reading. Unfortunately, only Naws was reading and understanding. I guess the rest of you were just lurking!

Nice one Naws

sludge pumper,



The DSRI identifies support and resistance which is moving with the momentum and trend. We identify this with the levels at which buying or selling begins or ends. These are also seen as major swings. Usually, but not always, connecting the swing highs or lows will identify the DSRI.

You can take a short cut and identify these from a line chart but I prefer to “see” it from the swings of a candle chart. Many times I will also use the “open” of a candle when it confirms support or resistance.

Go back to those charts I posted and study them carefully. If you still don’t see it, post your own examples for our comment.

Yeah Nice one Naws - I did question Strat on the same as I was thinking that was odd? I read and re-read it and thought I was missing something and gave up after a hard afternoon of F12'ing my way thru some charts!

Elite,
its nice that you post all your trades. at least the general idea.
about eur/us i agree, not only the weekly have bearish ascending wedge but the daily also.