Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Hi Strat,
I am new member here,i like medium to long term trading, where can i find the details of your daily system strategy(technique)
much thanks

HaHa - no, the dog is still in control, just another wag!

Indeed

100% agree with this. Since I have a trading partner in a different time zone, we can together cover all markets 24hrs a day. So as Strat indicated, you should be capable of exiting the trade next bar (for example, I have exited GU trade at BE and GJ and UCAD in profit after I posted those charts and still holding the remaining two). Although I have that capability, I don't prefer anything less than H4 (only majors) and mostly Worker.

The goal of my posts was to show you the power of DSRI when combined with static SRs and PA, just another perspective.

Scroll back to the top of the page

Look for the table which says 331 of 331

Move your mouse pointer to “First”

Left click on “First”

Start at the top and read and understand Post # 1 of “First”

Once read and understood, move to Post # 2 and repeat

Do NOT move to post # 3 until posts 1 & 2 are fully understood

Repeat until you get to your post

You may be disappointed as it is not a system – it is a methodology which requires WORK on your part – lots and lots of HARD work.

Unfortunately I was not able to look any chart in July, anyway looking back I feel I would be afraid to pull the trigger on so many pairs at the same time.
I see the price action on all the pairs you mention except for CHF/JPY where on 13 July I only see an inside bar. If for example you would have a chart like mine, would you advise to enter the trade supported by other correlated pairs?

Ramon

Nope, ill be watching it closely though. EJ is trading with the indices right now and im having a hard time understanding whats pushing them up STILL!! The Gov is running out of monopoly money to pump into this fake recovery as i see it.

Im still fighting the whole patience thing lol.... this is a trade for someone with more expierience than myself so i will pass on it. There has been a lot of ranging PA in the past years around these levels. so only the best set-ups on this pair.

Still riding this one down, PASR is showing its hand nicley here.

FYI, I am not trading H4 just using the chart to show the PASR that took place today a little clearer. Although it is still quite clear on D1 too

It looks like hammer on my chart doesn't it?

Nice read Craig.
Here's my daily chart too.
We do have to be a little careful though as the market is in 'Barb Wire' where we have 3 or more overlapping bars, 1 of which is a doji. (2 in this case). The bulls have defended the boss 20ema, the rising TL and 16260 level whilst the bears have defended the descending TL and last low of the uptrend breakout. After 6 strong bear trend bars though one would favour the short side, but it may be prudent for the risk adverse to have an order short at the base of the hammer (along with the trapped traders) to be sure. This was after all a Friday bar before a UK Bank Holiday on Mon. Lets see what the US and Asians do with Cable before jumping in. We have also had a channel spike out (the weekly Shooting Star) and we are now below the worker 20ema. Remember, Capital Preservation is key; the markets will produce more great trades in the future!

What I have noticed is that when you get the 20/50ma cross the market will often move opposite to the expected direction as many systems use this cross as a trade signal (we don't) so I guess this is the market 'fading' that signal. It then spikes above the emas but the best thing to look for could be an ema gap bar where you have a bear candle with a gap between it and the ema. These often result in great trades and add weight to any signal. Just look at the hammer on 13 Jul. This a a great example of an ema gap bar long. The trend is up, but the market has broken below the ema but we have a bull candle with a gap between it and the ema.

I just thought I'd share with you this weekend some of the stuff I have learnt over the past couple of weeks with regard to trend trading and counter trend trading.

When I started out (4yrs ago) I was trading blind just looking for a chart was that going up and buying because it looked good. I won a bit and lost a bit.
Then I came across Trader_Dante's thread Making Money Trading over on T2W which I found to be a revelation. I had never considered Fibs and SR levels or even individual candle patterns and I was amazed that some good soul had taken the time to show new traders how and what the market did and why.

That thread and the J16 thread really got me interested in the markets and trading, but I STILL thought I knew best and tried 'fitting' many silly indicators and lines to my charts thinking I could get the march on the markets. I have a shelf full of trading books all about RSI, MACD, Force Index, Convergence, Divergence etc and I filled my head with all that senseless crap.

So then I started to 'give' the markets my cash as I found my little systems never stood up in the live market. Great in hindsight but crap in practise.

So, then I went back to 'pin bars' (hammers and shooting stars) and re-read Tom's thread over on T2W. I had some success but I still didn't seem to be making it as a trader because I was programmed to be a counter trend trader without having any real idea what a trend was in the first place and when that trend was broken. To me, this is the BIG danger with learning some of these formations unless you RIGIDLY stick to taking them as fades (ie reversals back INTO the main underlying trend).

This was my big undoing as I was trying to trade every hammer and shooting star always looking for those 1000pip plus moves at the top or bottom of a big trend break.

So then, in Jan of this year I came across another 'thread' and some pro's down in Spain who had set up a live room with a special chart set up. Now, although I couldn't trade in their way, I did learn am few things from them guys like the importance of the 20 and 50 mas (I'd never used them before) and the ability to set MT4 up showing some of that info across the charts (ie Boss MAs on the worker charts). Their system was not for me as they used 'averaging' candles that HID the PA from traders. This seemed odd to me; why would you 'hide' the PA? I also found that the heiken ashi candles were only good after the event and didn't trade well live. And as for the 15min TF - Well, we all know how stressful that is!! But, I did meet some good people there and I'm still in contact with a few of them today, so there are many positives to that experience including my friend introducing me to this thread back in April 09.

Since coming across this thread and Strat's instruction I feel I have learnt much more about trading etc in the past few months than the previous 3 yrs! The odd thing is, I already knew a lot of it and debunked it because I wouldn't believe that trading could be that simple. Well, I can save you a few years and a good few thousand pounds/dollars etc and tell you that the only way to trade and mix it with the pro's is with PRICE ACTION. This is the 'grail' to the markets. Why don't many people learn this stuff?

Well, I reckon some see it as too hard to bother with and would rather have an EA tell them when to trade. It could be that some people think it is a lot harder than this (I did) and look for complex systems. Learning PA may seem like a hard slog but believe me, once you start to see the PASR you can have a little chuckle when you read a chart because you can see what may be about to unfold (I say MAY as there are no certainties in this business).

Lets looks at the chart below to illustrate the point.

The chart is the FTSE Fut chart

As you can see the FTSE is in a strong up trend since Mar 2003 and if you wanted to make money all you had to do was buy on every dip to that Trend Line(TL). All the MAs are in the right order too, so we would never consider shorting this market. The key to making money is identifying a trend early on and the sticking with it. Once you have a low then a high then a higher low its time to jump on board. Trends often go on a lot longer than people think.

As you can see at Point A, the market broke that UP TL; this was our first warning that the bulls were running out of steam and a trend change could be in the offing. Now, most TL break need confirming with a test and sometimes these tests will result in a higher high (Point B) or a lower low (in a down trend). What we look for here is a reversal pattern (we are now looking for a short because of the TL break) and in 14 Oct 2007 we had a BEOB. Now aggressive traders may take this setup as their short. The more conservative amongst you may wish to see the test of the break of that TL from underneath before you traded. As you can see at Point C we had a test of the TL break from underneath with an Inside Bar. IBs are dangerous but they are best if they trade in the way you expect them to go. So, if you are looking for a short you would not take a green or bullish IB break. But that's not being taught on Strat's thread so I'll zip it!)

So, we have now had effectively a 1-2-3 set up. We have had a major TL break, a new high back into that TL and now we are looking for the 123 to get us in. We had this with this double top, (1) the back down thru the TL and 20ema (2) then back up to underneath the TL with a lower high (3). This is a text book short set up trend reversal.

We then had another TL test (the final UP TL, not shown but you can 'see' it) drawn from the March 2003 lows to the Aug 2004 lows and beyond. Look at how that TL break in Jan 2008 was tested from underneath in May 2008 ( the lower high under Point C) This time we had a BEOB. This was also a 'Low 2 Short' (ie the 2nd lower high after the peak) and this gave rise to the best short of the lot with 2 large pushes down to the MAJOR yearly up TL at 3700 region.

Point D is the down trend line from the peak thru the Low 2 high and beyond. Until this TL is broken we are still, really, in a down trend and this current thrust could yet be a retrace back into that TL. The current chart is showing a steeply rising wedge pattern and the current rate of ascent is unsustainable in my opinion and a test of the monthly 20ema. I think once Sept Oct starts we could see this rally peak at about the 5000-5100 level before starting a new leg down. Again, wait for the micro TL break (ie the lower part of the wedge pattern) and the retest of that break before going short.

Al says in his book that most market moves involve 2 pushes down and 3 pushes up. If this is the case then we may see some corrective action this week or next before a final small 3rd push up into that descending TL and the 5100 region before the resumption of the down trend.

Hope I've not got above my station here or explained this well enough for people to understand; I would invite comments to the contrary for learning of course!

I'm looking at the GBPJPY chart and it looks like the same setup is occurring on the daily chart.

Hello Grimweasel,

What you say was true for me too, for a beginner is easy to spot all hammers and shooting stars, but the problem is that is difficult to decipher which one is with the trend and which one is counter trend. It is like myopia: you just cannot see the "big picture" around, you only focus on things very near to your eyes.

In the post you speak about inside bars, etc. Could you attach a candle chart of FTSE?. Thanks.

Hey Grim, I typed in to find the thread Trader_Dante's thread Making Money Trading on yahoo but the site wouldn't let me go to the second page of the thread. Do you know why?

Hi Oblo,

I won't post anything here about IBs as I know Strat would not like me to do so. They are much more difficult to trade and are really 'pause' bars that have to be taken in the context of those around them. I'd stick with the basic reversal set-ups first; once you have those nailed over a few years of growing equity curve then maybe take a look then. I don't trade them myself on account of my last sentence!

No idea mate - it works fine for me?
Try Google Chrome - I much prefer it it IE 8 or whatever carnation of browser Microsoft is on these days!!

Everyone may want to be aware of the Japanese elections on Sunday (if you're not already). The Sunday Asian session may be interesting.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/...s_6811466.html

Oblo
I used to have trouble seeing the bigger picture and identifying the trend. I was helped to "see".
Here is a quote from Barjon which I think defines it for me:
Nicola

Go back to basics. Look at the charts, with whatever indicators you want to be using and just LOOK. Simple stuff like lower lows, lower highs or higher lows, higher highs. If you can’t see them – they’re not there. If you can see them –what is that telling you? They’re giving you direction, entry, S&R and exit points. How much more could you ask for?

Indeed, I agree with this. One has to be a good tape reader in the end. Some may get by with highly automated systems, but the essence of this style is chart reading, pure and simple.

I would never have a chart like yours - end of story!