Technical Analysis Fallacy

hI aux,
now you are looking from the right perspective.

regards

Fallling...falling...I squared...
too tired to remain with any dance..
but the bulls are charging.

nice weekend to all....
another fantastic 100 % week...
thanks fti for curing me of my indicator stupidities...

see you all on Sunday evening.

I'll take that as a no then.

This is way too much for me sometime... but i save it for myself someday i will be able to understand down the line...

Stayed around in case there was any end of month moves but it looks like the EUR/USD is parked for the weekend at 1.4300 area. Have a good weekend and I will see everyone Monday. Ray

I noticed quite some time already,
I have traded in USD/JPY, the movement is slow, so, low risk and slow profit/loss also.
I also have traded in GBP/USD and EUR/USD, both possess the same potency, fast movement (about 200 pips daily), so with it, high risk and fast profit/loss.
I have always told by my broker that amateurs suggested to trade in USD/JPY and should only trade in GBP/USD if they have enough proficiency in USD/JPY trading.

so, the question is.
what about the EUR/GBP? what trait(s) that they possess?
Thanks for the answers beforehand.

Wished I had more time to do some handholding for you guys, but my plate is so full now.

good day Fti,

Sorry for late response, this thread moves very fast (nearly 10 pages within 1-2 days)
I'm happy right now and my standard is not good enough for you to teach. my level is only suitable for your student, Maheswara is doing fantastic job(coaching me) very in details & quick response. Thank you Maheswara.
This thread is enlightening me (3-4 yrs going nowhere). Until now I have much more confidence bcoz of your thread

may good karma & good health come to you

Best regards,

pete

ukman

The only assumption you should have about your scout is that YOU are wrong until the market proves you right. Don't waste time and money waiting for her to prove you are wrong. If your scout is misbehaving kill it and move on. Losses are part of this business and learning to take the best loss is what will make you a successful trader.

kind regards

very good advice Dutch angel. bedankt

because of HOPE I had a bad rescue against the big trend last week and decided to use a smaller scout ( $10) for some time and i am glad i did. After i entered the scout i realised my MO is wrong.


What i want to share is obvious to most on this thread but maybe it's usefull or a reminder to some.


I attacked like i should rescue; “swift... no prelonged rescues”. Somehow i thought this was also the case for attacking. Now i cannot remember fti saying this.
Maybe i made this up after reading Sun Tzu: “in waging war one must always attempt to score a swift victory....”


So i scalped when the scout was in profit. With my old scout size and skew it would be to risky to keep my attacks open anyway.
This is why i did not realy understand the concept of “building and managing book”


when i look at old skew in dollars and the one i am going to use, it's pretty clear that what Fti and the veterans say is true: “use the smallest scout possible”.

Old:
50 – 50 – 100 – 150 - 250
150 - 150- 300 – 450 - 750

new:
10 - 10 – 20 – 30 - 50 - 80 – 130 – 210
30 - 30 – 60 – 90 - 150 –240- 390 – 630


i remembered an early quote from Fti wich is very clear and gives me new energy to dance.


"after entry watch the mkts.
Is it doing what you thought it should be doing?
are you comfortable with the position, if yes then add to the position.
if not get out, find a different level. and do itagain. and again until you are satisfied with your position.

when you are riding pprofits, take some out at the oversold levels to reenter near the overbought levels , vice versa.
After a few weeks , you should have a better feel of the market, you are trading."

kind greetings, pax

I wondered if any of the experienced thread members would be kind enough to share how they are currently working fti's methods..

I am gradually experimenting with what suits my circumstances - and obviously very interested to hear what others are finding the most successful and least successful parts (if any) of the strategy..:nerd:

If I am correct, looking at fti's attack sequence - often small pip amounts are taken (with larger positions) to build up the attacks..

With a much more limited budget and smaller position size - how do you overcome the spreads to do this? Is it possible?

I also noticed that lusan mentioned in one post taking profits at 10-12 pips gains during the moves which would be nice..

Also is the general idea still to exit attack positions within the 7 x 5 minute price bars or is anyone benefiting for holding on for longer?

I am also noticing that if my scout is trouble it takes me a lot of work and time to recover the loss it - so is it better to cut and run and look for the next run of pips? - And the crucial point - how soon???

I appreciate that all of the base information is in the thread but the skills & experiences of the traders is growing..

Perhaps an easier question is : - What would you most recommend avoiding?

Many thanks in advance if you are able to share -
And I hope you are/have been enjoying a relaxing weekend..

(Apologies just noticed how to use the)

Gdb,
There are no concrete rules to govern how you trade using Fti’s teachings, doing so would be rigid and exactly opposite of what he teaches.

Just burn into your memory what happened late Thursday at the end of the NY session, the $ sold off in dramatic fashion, there were a lot of folks who took a hit that day. That can happen at any time, if you’re not mentally prepared for it, you will end up with that deer in the head light look as the bus runs you over.

The most basic explanation is to follow the trend until it ends, as you do not know with certainty when or where that will be, trying to do so will teach you many painful lessons.

That being said:

When day trading, I try to trade the immediate legs of the “now” ( higher highs/lows or lower lows/highs) in the direction of current move. This can be preferably in the direction of the current trend; or, if I think there’s room for movement a smaller skewed counter trend play.

If going long “trending”:

Ideally, I would like to be in immediately after the current reversal on the first pull back or correction, I would enter when I sensed price starting to stall in that initial correction. As price turns and starts in my direction I want to add or press for maximum profits. Now obviously the deeper in the correction I can add and the longer I can hold those positions on the following run the more money I make, but don’t be greedy or you will miss your opportunity.

If price is trending up, it should make a higher high, make an extension above the old high, ideally in that area is where I want to take my profits on the bulk of my position as I feel price stalling. Ideally I want to try and leave a little to try and let it ride for the next wave. On the next pullback, as I feel price stall, I can start the process over again except my initial entry is still in, from the bottom.

Without having a fixed level, or being rigid, I can gauge the preceding move and the momentum of the next push, in relation to the first, angle (speed) and distance or exhaustion. If price fails to make a new high in this case what would that tell us?

After entry what price does dictates everything else, there are no “if price does this for x# of bars or pips I do this” rules.

If price continues to retrace and violates the trend, then I have decisions to make as to attempt rescue, try to flip or kill the initial entry, In the above scenario, i might be looking at a continued run against me being caught in a trap, and I might have to wait for an opportunity for rescue.

If range trading, pick a side (preferably to your higher range trend bias) and trade the range in that direction. If you’re not comfortable trading ranges wait for it to break and enter on the initial retrace. The range will give usually give you clues to its intent, there’s much written about this. Be aware of false breaks, which tell their own story.

Do some reading By John Hill , referenced by Fti earlier in the thread, it will shed some light on ending and ranging PA behaviors.

This thread requires some deep study and thought to understand, simply reading over the material will not teach you much, think about what Fti is teaching and internalize it, translating it to the charts. It’s like a big Onion, as you start peeling back a layer you find another, and another. They will build upon themselves. I can tell you how I interpret the dance, but it has to resonate inside you for it to be effective. That will only happen when you immerse yourself into the study.

Fwiw.

regards

there you have it...I like this one....no much to add from my own understanding..

I would like to summarize it as:

1. Be flexible....which means nothing is cast in stone: not even skews, number of bars, size or timing...even the trend could change all the sudden
2. Be ready and alert...or nimbleness...we must combine patience with speed..A hunter waiting for the game..you wait and when you see it coming out behind a tree you inmediately fire.
3. Be aware of your inner demons...greed and fear will kill...that is why mindset stability is very important.

If you are a chess player, as some here are, consider that PA is playing her move and we need to have an strategy to face an ever changing dance. The strategy could change at any moment.

For example, I just open my metatrader to check my lady, she was entering the first congestion after a major fall, so I am inclinde to use a early range stragegy on Sunday evening...I might be a bull to start...if there is a gap: I will have to review the strategy...and so on throughout the night..but notice I did not say fibo level, nor moving average or overbought/sold, price level, patterns...etc...nothing I just saw it falling on Friday afternoon and I think that this is entering into a pause-resting- before further south move...1D create a confusing image:see how E/U is at a top and full of hesitation...and how 4H is dropping like a rock...going south...but all this could become mute Sunday evening...etc.You could also see G/U and se 1H behaving like wise...U/Y is pausing and it seems as turning up...Are the kings in sync? It looks like but U/Y is a little behind...so some people would trade U/Y long...etc...

Maybe I m vague...sorry...the more I trade, the more vague all is becoming...

Hi gdb, I think luSan and auxesis have given you some wise words to follow. I hope fti and the experienced traders here will forgive me for adding a few recommendations, as I do not want to sound like a big shot or some huge trader that knows everything (I am relatively newto fti's thread).

Although loses are a part of the life of a trader, keep them small. fti went over that early on in this thread. It is easy to let things slip away from you, but keep the old rule in mind, "lose small/win big".

When you are entering a trade, leave some resources for the second trade. That helps you with the first recommendation (less at risk means smaller losses) and gives you plenty of ammo for the big push when the market starts to move. This may go against some of the thinking of this thread, but am I thinking about a second trade before my first one goes in. That may be rigid thinking, but it helps me.

Always assume your first trade is a mistake. If it starts to go against your position, exit the trade and wait for a better entry. If it proves you wrong and you're up pips, get that second trade ready. Make the market prove you right, never let it prove you wrong.

Last one: find a trading strategy that you can execute, and one that when executed properly, will make you money. Then, execute that strategy. Never judge your trading by a win or a loss, but only on your execution. When you do this, a good day can be one where you executed every trade that matched your strategy, but you had a loss for the day. Or, a bad day could be one where you made money, but did not execute some trades that met your strategy.

Hope this is of some help, and if it is a lot of repeat, them perhaps there is a trend in advise developing - lol.

LOL - how true.

Many thanks

auxesis, GEfx, luSan..for sharing..

Lots of kind advice & experience to internalise and learn from..

Of course your comments creates further questions and curiosity

Earlier in the thread there is an awful lot of discussions regarding skews, rescues etc ..which seems to have lessened now..?
In the AOW - I noticed this quote which was used a few times earlier on:

"Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought...etc etc"

Has this taken a back seat now as experience has increased and the automatic dance has taken over with already known 'calculations' (amount to risk etc) second nature in your daily trading?

And with regard to Lusan's & Gefx's "vagueness" - do you think its due to the fact we are all trading past tense to the market - i.e. the market moves and we do our best to follow its movements as quickly as possible and really have no control other than to work out our mm criteria..

A greater degree of vagueness about the trading 'method' really is the polar opposite of the technical indicators rigid mo..

Hope you dont mind the further questions and probing..

and thanks again..
regards
gdb

Current UTC time 20:25

Oanda spreads wide atm

1.4301/11
1.6264/74
93.25/45

edit: I'm also showing some corrupt data on the yen, a 4000 pip drop, down to 55.60, LOL that will take them some time to unravel as everyone trades have been closed.

Just scrolled Oanda forum board, ugly site, anybody with open Yen positions in a mess, some margin called, Oanda will fix everything, but will take some time.

Goodness............

Hi friends,

just heared in the the news, that people in Japan have voted for a new government. And that in a very strong way. It was a voting for more democracy, so the commentaries in our TV ....

Would be very interesting to see how the Yen will react.

Wish you all a successful week!
And be very very nimble!

Cu,
MaMood

Bloomberg on Japan elections

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aAQ0qltevVQI

Thanx for info Auxesis!
Oanda is quoting 9320/9330.

I'm very curious how all the JPY pairs will behave ...