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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #42,401
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:35pm Aug 27, 2009 10:35pm
Slow friday, so here is something I've been looking at.

I shorted VXX almost as soon as it became available. Not for any technical/PA reasons, but some pretty solid fundamental ones. Didnt even realise that, at the time, I was looking at a BEOB at double top swing high with divergence and break of an IB.

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Funny thing is, looking back at the equities I have held at some point or another, almost all of my entries could have been improved using j16 goodness.

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I get this is all based on hindsight and woulda-shoulda-coulda and small sample size, but I've looked at twelve separate charts now, and I could have improved my entries on 8, and my exits on 6. Unfortunately, it took until like March this year for the penny to drop, so to speak.

It constantly amazes me how well this stuff works everywhere.

Now, if someone could just construct a OHLC chart of my girlfriends crankiness, I'd recognise the bullish pin last weekend and would have gone long flowers
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,402
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:48pm Aug 27, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting joelcf
USDCAD made a nice 2d pin at close. Big PPZ sittin on a round number below it, but it is with the overall trend, and in general fits the direction I want to get into this trade (ie, bullish on resources and hockey).

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I hate entering these on a Friday though. And my new trading assistant isnt offering any useful advice!

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I'm looking at this too! CAD is making a lot of 2D pins lately. The one from august 10/11 was looking pretty nice, but the next day it dropped just enough to trigger any shorts based on that formation and then turned back up. The reason I didn't take it is that I started trading just 10 days ago

I wonder if any of the seniors took it and how they managed it...

The next 2D pin bars from august 16/17 I did take and it was a great trade.
  • #42,403
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:22pm Aug 27, 2009 11:22pm
I too took this PB long primarily due to the double low with the expectation to return to the previous PPZ not far away. It was late here so I placed a full TP at the blue line and went to sleep, but as you can tell it fell just short.

Since I was demoing this trade I was happy to see that the PB did work as planned (almost) but it was a winner in by book b/c it tought me that these types of trades are better traded from ones desk in stead of ones bed. Also that they call it a PPZ for a reason, I think it missed my TP by 2 pips.

Had I been awake, the plan would have been to look for weakness on the lower TF's and move to BE at that point. Again, hard to do when you're sleeping. LOL. Lesson learned
Cheers
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A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #42,404
  • Edited 11:47pm Aug 27, 2009 11:32pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting faces
I'm looking at this too! CAD is making a lot of 2D pins lately. The one from august 10/11 was looking pretty nice, but the next day it dropped just enough to trigger any shorts based on that formation and then turned back up. .
You mean this one? I have it as the 13th, but being from the other side of the world makes my dates screwy and I never remember which way to adjust them and by how much >:/

Quoting joelcf
Actually, I dont see the two as mutually exclusive. I will probably take the 2d USDCAD as well, depending on how hard it breaks south.

*edit* actually, going to dinner and cant watch it, and feel like there could be a decent retrace in this one. Will set some alerts and wait it out. Not too worried on missing it, fish in the sea and all that.

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That was a nice little winner a couple of other people here I think - I missed it because I had reservations at Tetsuya, and you dont skip those for anything - even the Micheal Vick of pins

Went right to where we thought it should

It's all about what you do when it gets to that PPZ. I see like 12 bars bouncing off it, so its clearly got some fight in it - I woulda gone b/e, or possibly dropped down to a smaller timeframe once it got to the PPZ to see if I could hide a stop down there somewhere.

(as discussed previously, I am also a big girl when it comes to risk management, so others might have been more aggressive and squeezed some more pips out of it... something im working on!)

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(also, check out what the next one, that you took, did.. specifically, where it stopped and came back up )
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,405
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:54pm Aug 27, 2009 11:54pm
...
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I believe . . .
  • #42,406
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:08am Aug 28, 2009 12:08am
Quoting jarroo
Its always good to refocus again on seeing what an A+ trade looks like. I have a folder of many (if not all) of James16 charts that I still review all the time. Its amazing as you progress with this material, then look back at charts and see them in a clearer light.


Oh yeah . . . . this is what I'm looking for . . .

Charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=28665

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23703

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19599...
Thanks Joel, Hipster and Jarroo.
I am always amazed by the number of reply you get when you post a question.
Definitively the best thread on the net
  • #42,407
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:11am Aug 28, 2009 12:11am
Quoting joelcf
You mean this one? I have it as the 13th, but being from the other side of the world makes my dates screwy and I never remember which way to adjust them and by how much >:/
Yes, that's the one I meant. Looking at it now, I suppose a good way to manage it would have been this:

1. Place entry stop below the bars, stop above.

2. Next day your trade triggers, but as the day ends in a bin bar, move the stop loss 10 pips above the newly formed pin bar.

3. Stop gets triggered making a loss of about 79 pips instead of 200-something pips which was the size of the bars.

An even better and agressive way would have been to put a stop and reverse above the pin bar and take a long trade I wonder if anyone really did that.

Disclaimer: I am a newbie, please don't take this as a trade recommendation. I may be completely wrong and this could a total loser way of trading! I am just trying to get an expert opinion on this (virtual) trade.

Quoting joelcf
That was a nice little winner a couple of other people here I think - I missed it because I had reservations at Tetsuya, and you dont skip those for anything - even the Micheal Vick of pins

Went right to where we thought it should

It's all about what you do when it gets to that PPZ. I see like 12 bars bouncing off it, so its clearly got some fight in it - I woulda gone b/e, or possibly dropped down to a smaller timeframe once it got to the PPZ to see if I could hide a stop down there somewhere.

(as discussed previously, I am also...
Well, on this one I closed half pretty early and trailed the other half which got stopped after the price bounced of the PPZ. I was ok with giving those pips back cos I already had locked a nice profit and it could have broken down through the PPZ
  • #42,408
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:20am Aug 28, 2009 12:20am
Quoting faces
Yes, that's the one I meant. Looking at it now, I suppose a good way to manage it would have been this:

1. Place entry stop below the bars, stop above.

2. Next day your trade triggers, but as the day ends in a bin bar, move the stop loss 10 pips above the newly formed pin bar.

3. Stop gets triggered making a loss of about 79 pips instead of 200-something pips which was the size of the bars.
You could, but then you would still make a loss when you probably shouldnt be. You know there is a pretty decent probability that the PPZ is going to send it back up at you, just based on the chart.

If I know there is a huge PPZ that I am going to run up against, I always set my stop to at least BE. That one had rejected like 11 or 12 bars, in both directions. No way I am taking a loss on one of those. Like StoragePro said - dont be liquidity.

I'd wanna either bail with my profits once it hit the ppz and reversed (usually setting the stop to the top of the PPZ so if it keeps going, you should be able to stay in the trade), or drop down to the 4H/1H and micromanage based on the PA down there.

If I had to just set the trade and not look until the next day, I'd either set a TP at the PPZ (which I hate), or just pass on it based on the r:R.

Quoting faces
An even better and agressive way would have been to put a stop and reverse above the pin bar and take a long trade I wonder if anyone really did that.
That's a pretty hardcore move, but you have the framework there to do it. You know where the PPZs are, where price is probably going, and where it will probably stop and stall or come back.

I do it occasionally (see the AUDUSD yesterday), but a couple of guys here seem to specialise in it - just bouncing off each side of the channel. Pretty impressive stuff.

Quoting faces
Well, on this one I closed half pretty early and trailed the other half which got stopped after the price bounced of the PPZ. I was ok with giving those pips back cos I already had locked a nice profit and it could have broken down through the PPZ
Nice Pretty cool to make a big trade like that after ten days!
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,409
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:29am Aug 28, 2009 12:29am
Quoting faces
Yes, that's the one I meant. Looking at it now, I suppose a good way to manage it would have been this:

1. Place entry stop below the bars, stop above.

2. Next day your trade triggers, but as the day ends in a bin bar, move the stop loss 10 pips above the newly formed pin bar.

3. Stop gets triggered making a loss of about 79 pips instead of 200-something pips which was the size of the bars.

An even better and agressive way would have been to put a stop and reverse above the pin bar and take a long trade I wonder if anyone really did that....
The only time I am ok with a loss is when price never reaches the first region I mark as "trouble zone".

Think abt it. You take a trade and know where it should first find trouble at. You are not wrong and price does just that. Would it be ok with you to let price come back and hurt you, knowing it has the potential to? It's more like taking your face forward to a vixen of a gf and inviting her to slap you.

IMHO, you should reserve your minimal losses for times when price will do the unexpected, like I said maybe reverse much before your first marked trouble zone, or a news spike...

The Usd/Cad BEOB which was followed by the pin bar is by no means a looser unless you're practicing really crazy trade management.

A better approach would be to take some off (or at least move the stop to BE on the beob) at the ppz level Joel marked where the pin bar formed,

and probably treat the pin bar as a separate trade altogether...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #42,410
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:38am Aug 28, 2009 12:38am
4000 tick mini dow chart.

high odds trades.

most people that daytrade this/these markets trade on a tick chart in the 50 to 250 range and take many trades a day.

its why there usually gone and broke in a couple of months.

im trying to win and stay away from anything to do with the word boss and all the crap and misery that comes with it. been a long time but i remember.

i remember well enough to be smart and picky with my trades no matter what market it is.

thought you might enjoy a little change from forex. its my intention to start posting more of these.
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  • #42,411
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:48am Aug 28, 2009 12:48am
Quoting james16
4000 tick mini dow chart.

high odds trades.

most people that daytrade this/these markets trade on a tick chart in the 50 to 250 range and take many trades a day.

its why there usually gone and broke in a couple of months.

im trying to win and stay away from anything to do with the word boss and all the crap and misery that comes with it. been a long time but i remember.

i remember well enough to be smart and picky with my trades no matter what market it is.

thought you might enjoy a little change from forex. its my intention to start...
more, more, MORE!
I believe . . .
  • #42,412
  • Edited 1:00am Aug 28, 2009 12:48am | Edited 1:00am
Quoting joelcf
If I had to just set the trade and not look until the next day, I'd either set a TP at the PPZ (which I hate), or just pass on it based on the r:R.
Of course! This makes perfect sense. I was looking at it as a trade that I wouldn't touch until next day's close, which would be too late already to move the SL to BE. I guess the best option here would have been to just pass on the trade, because the PPZ was so close.

If I remember right, James did say to trade away from the PPZ and not towards them. I guess this is a perfect example of this.

Thanks a lot for clearing it up. And to ghous too, who's answer I was just reading while answering this.
  • #42,413
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:53am Aug 28, 2009 12:53am
Is it the formation in yellow square IB4?
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  • #42,414
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:56am Aug 28, 2009 12:56am
Quoting james16
4000 tick mini dow chart.

high odds trades.

most people that daytrade this/these markets trade on a tick chart in the 50 to 250 range and take many trades a day.

its why there usually gone and broke in a couple of months.

im trying to win and stay away from anything to do with the word boss and all the crap and misery that comes with it. been a long time but i remember.

i remember well enough to be smart and picky with my trades no matter what market it is.

thought you might enjoy a little change from forex. its my intention...
Did you get this one.

Once in a lifetime.
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  • #42,415
  • Edited 1:17am Aug 28, 2009 1:02am | Edited 1:17am
Quoting nasir.khan
Did you get this one.
There was a 1:20 reverse split at the start of July

You want once in a lifetime? Check out YHOO at the start of 2000

This was my third year of uni. The guy I sat next to in some dead boring lecture (continuous time finance) told me he thought the tech market was overheated, and he was buying some puts over yahoo, amazon, ebay and someone else.

Never saw him again. Didnt even show up for the finals. lol.

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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #42,416
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:13am Aug 28, 2009 1:13am
Quoting ghous
...
its a PPZ also am i right???
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  • #42,417
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:14am Aug 28, 2009 1:14am
Quoting nasir.khan
its a PPZ also am i right???
Yup!
I believe . . .
  • #42,418
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:17am Aug 28, 2009 1:17am
Quoting ghous
Yup!
I would like the breakout to the downside.
  • #42,419
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:21am Aug 28, 2009 1:21am
Mi first post!!
What do you think?
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  • #42,420
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:24am Aug 28, 2009 1:24am
Quoting nasir.khan
I would like the breakout to the downside.
The downside won't be a drive on the highway either...1625 is a holding a tonne of bar highs, but yeah given that it would be with the overall trend could be a fair play specially if those bar highs turn out to be sweet marshmallows...we'd like that but won't anticipate it.
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I believe . . .
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