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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #4,921
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:24pm Aug 27, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Strat, et al,

I have to confess to being bad today. I had a dabble on the 15m TF to try and learn some PASR as I'm at home currently....
This is to everyone:

Unless you have a proven growing equity curve trading the Worker, you have NO CHANCE trading any time frame less than the Worker. This is the trap all new and inexperienced wannabe traders fall in to. They think, --well I don't really know what they think, I can't speak for them because I don't understand their logic.

Even once you have mastered, and I mean mastered (with a proven growing equity curve - nothing less), I would not recommend anything less than H1. Even then at H1, PASR is unstable and unreliable.

The temptation for excitement and to be involved trading all the time will always be there for those who are never satisfied. For some reason, they want to believe that trading these short time frames will bring them more money whereas in fact, it loses you more money.

The inexperienced trader thinks trading is about making "x" pips each and every day.

The experienced, seasoned veteran Worker and Boss trader knows trading is about making money over the long haul. They can go days and maybe weeks without making a trade but when they do make a trade they make triple and quadruple pips which makes short time frame trading look like playing monopoly for monkey nuts.

Go back a few posts and look at EURGBP again - look at how much we made on the Worker and Boss for SO LITTLE EFFORT!

Now compare that to the torture you have to go through trading stupid short time frames.

I would much rather have MY health to ENJOY my wealth. Something short time frame traders CANNOT say
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,922
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:29pm Aug 27, 2009 3:29pm
What you see today is GBPUSD testing minor support.

So where is the next move?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd reacting to minor resistance.gif Size: 18 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,923
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:35pm Aug 27, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting strat
This is to everyone:

Unless you have a proven growing equity curve trading the Worker, you have NO CHANCE trading any time frame less than the Worker. This is the trap all new and inexperienced wannabe traders fall in to. They think, --well I don't really know what they think, I can't speak for them because I don't understand their logic.

Even once you have mastered, and I mean mastered (with a proven growing equity curve - nothing less), I would not recommend anything less than H1. Even then at H1, PASR is unstable and unreliable.

The...
Strat,
All very true and I realise that now too. Weird how every now and then we think we need to see what's going on in the 'bowels' of the trading game.

I thought I'd post that here just a warning to others. Like you said, you are here to help and being honest with you and the 'self' is the only way to ever truly conquer this business.

I couldn't stare at the screen all day like a moron, so, I know that the daily TF is for me as it allows one to have a life outside of trading and watching bars go up and down. Don't get me wrong, I'm fascinated by trading but I know to be successful you have to have a rounded life with many facets to become successful at anything.

Thanks for the continued teachings...
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,924
  • Edited 3:50pm Aug 27, 2009 3:41pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Strat,
All very true and I realise that now too. Weird how every now and then we think we need to see what's going on in the 'bowels' of the trading game.

I thought I'd post that here just a warning to others. Like you said, you are here to help and being honest with you and the 'self' is the only way to ever truly conquer this business.

I couldn't stare at the screen all day like a moron, so, I know that the daily TF is for me as it allows one to have a life outside of trading and watching bars go up and down....
""Thanks for the continued teachings...""

No, thank you, Danny boy, for showing warts and all, the torment and greed we go through until we MASTER ourselves.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,925
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:44pm Aug 27, 2009 3:44pm
Strat,
My take on cable:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-08-27_2140cable_2.png Size: 42 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,926
  • Aug 27, 2009 3:45pm Aug 27, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting strat
This is to everyone:

Unless you have a proven growing equity curve trading the Worker, you have NO CHANCE trading any time frame less than the Worker. This is the trap all new and inexperienced wannabe traders fall in to. They think, --well I don't really know what they think, I can't speak for them because I don't understand their logic.

Even once you have mastered, and I mean mastered (with a proven growing equity curve - nothing less), I would not recommend anything less than H1. Even then at H1, PASR is unstable and unreliable.

The temptation...
And if you haven't done so already, take heed and notice of Alexandra and how she is trading. She is in it for the LONG HAUL, not for what she can get every day on M15 or M5.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,927
  • Edited 6:01pm Aug 27, 2009 5:53pm | Edited 6:01pm
Let’s use EURJPY to do a refresher on PASR and understanding PASR.

The first thing we do is draw our MAJOR S&R lines. This now is our grid, or script for trading major worker moves.

If you want to scalp on the Worker, we would add in minor S&R lines but that is a different style.

We have to start somewhere so lets start at candle 1.

The day before candle 1 was a down day and broke through minor resistance so we should expect candle 1 to continue the down move to the next support so lets take it from there.

Candle 1 continued the down move and hit the next support which is MAJOR support. At this level, there were more buyers than sellers and the buyers caused price to rise. They attempted to push prices all the way up to the next MAJOR resistance but met a level where the sellers outnumbered the buyers. This caused price to stop short of resistance where the sellers drove price back to the minor resistance where it CLOSED.

So, from candle 1, we LEARN a lot of information. We know where the buyers and sellers are hiding amongst other things. This also gives us our CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT at this level.

Since candle 1 closed with the buyers in control at resistance, it would be logical to expect them to be in control at the open of candle 2.

Candle 2 opens with the buyers pushing prices back up to MAJOR RESISTANCE where again there were more sellers than buyers. The sellers took over and tried to drive price back down to major support but the buying pressure was too great and the candle CLOSED at minor resistance.

Again, from this, we LEARN even more valuable information.

With candle 2 firmly rejected by MAJOR RESISTANCE and unable to stay above minor resistance and finally CLOSING at minor resistance we would expect the sellers to be in control for the opening of the next candle.

Candle 3 shows another attempt by the sellers to drive price lower but they can only get to ……………MAJOR SUPPORT, the level at which we ALREADY KNOW are where buyers are waiting to pounce. There were only sufficient buyers to hold the price at support rather than take price higher so we know the sellers were in charge at the candle CLOSE.

Candle 4 opens with the sellers making an attempt to drive price lower to……………..the next level of support which is minor support. However, the sellers did not believe they could drive price down there so they only sent out a small group who were only large enough to meet the buyers at that level. The few sellers managed to CLOSE that candle below MAJOR SUPPORT.

Seeing the success with the small group of sellers CLOSING below MAJOR SUPPORT, the sellers sent out the cavalry on candle 5 to drive prices down again which they managed to do to………………….minor support. The only problem was the buyers were stronger down there than they thought and they were repelled BUT they still managed to CLOSE at a lower price than the previous candle meaning the sellers still had the upper hand.

Candle 6 was either a rest day or where a huge battle went on and nobody came out a winner. Either way, it tells us that the buyers and sellers, for whatever reason, had reached equilibrium or balance on the price of 133.72

It is normal, after a day of equilibrium for one side to try and take control but trying to guess which one is where you lose your money. Many traders will say to trade in the direction of the “trend” which would be in the direction of the four candles, 2,3,4 & 5. However, the experienced trader knows (1) what is going on and (2) where we are with respect to price levels. If you are reading this and don’t know what is going on and where we are at then you need to go to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

Candle 7 is basically a déjŕ vu of candle 5 EXCEPT there was much more activity shown by a re-test of both support and resistance and the buyers managed to CLOSE the candle in control at MAJOR RESISTANCE. This was the buyers sending out a message to the sellers.

Candle 8 saw the sellers getting the message and telling the buyers which orifice to stick their message and proceeded to drive prices lower again. This move caught the buyers with their pants down as they thought they were strong enough to push price lower and quickly had to bring in more buyers to stem the down the move. This was at a previously established very minor price level but strong enough to hold the sellers who were in control at the CLOSE.

Candle 9 was a continuation from candle 7 where the buyers believed they were strong enough to outnumber the sellers to take prices higher which they did. However, they used up a lot of their resources in over coming the sellers on candle 8 and were not able to take price back to the next price level………….minor resistance. They did manage to keep control as evidenced by their strong CLOSE.

Since the buyers did not finish the job they started on candle 9, and with them being firmly in control, you would expect the next day to be a continuation of that move, which it was.

Candle 10 continued the up move to get prices back to minor resistance but, they ran out of steam as evidenced by a strong close well below resistance. We don’t know why they ran out of steam except to know that there were no buyers above that level – a level where they have had problems in the past. What we do know is that they are near to the level where WE KNOW sellers are waiting.

Candle 11 shows us that the sellers are still in control and dominate the buyers and manage to get prices back down to………..MAJOR SUPPORT again.

At this level, the buyers know what to expect and prepare for it by showing up in force to drive prices higher, back up to………..minor resistance. This is shown by candle 12. Unfortunately, the buyers didn’t bring enough troops and they were pushed back the sellers who were still in control. However, there were sufficient buyers to keep price above MAJOR RESISTANCE but with the CLOSE being at the extreme of the sellers range, we know who was in control at the CLOSE of the candle.

As expected, candle 13 showed the controlling party driving prices back down to………………..the next level of support which is at the very minor resistance again. Since they couldn’t quite get to CLOSE at the previous level and despite CLOSING strong, we have doubts whether they will be able to maintain that level.

Candle 14 sees the sellers attempt to drive prices back down to……………minor resistance but again it is at a level where the buyers outnumber them. Since the buyers are now in ascendance, they take control and make a push for price levels at……………..the next level of resistance which is MAJOR RESISTANCE.

See if you can work out candle 15 (there is additional information to help you with this).

This is the natural tug of war or fight or battle between supply and demand and is how a market breathes and moves.

If you think of prices as a battle between the buyers and sellers trying to maintain and gain their “land”, you will go a long way to understanding prices.

Oh, and if you don’t know why box “A” is highlighted, please go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy - the battle for price.gif Size: 23 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,928
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:31pm Aug 27, 2009 6:31pm
You know by now that I detest threads and forums that post “signals” and the poor bastards that frequent them but I do like to “”throw out”” some crumbs to see if anyone is reading and understanding.

Hopefully our regular readers caught my drift from Post # 4694 on Page 313.

This was a dead give away and along with the confirmation by the BOSS in a later post identified a huge triple pip move into FAT CITY which is still running. The BOSS showed (confirmed) the way for the Worker – you had to be a Pinball Wizard (a deaf, dumb and blind kid) – The Who 1964, to MISS IT!

This was just another of the many examples showing the POWER and VALUE of the DSRI indicator.

“What else does it show us Strat?”

Well, it starts with the magic of PASR in the shape of a BEOB which should have started it all.

It shows us the POWER and VALUE of confluence from static S&R and dynamic S&R.

It shows us how price REACTS at powerful confluence of static and dynamic S&R

And in answer to Danny boy’s (Grimweasel) prayers, it shows us the mechanics and VALUE of a RE – TEST of BOTH static and dynamic S&R.

“Anything else?”

It shows how to trade between MAJOR resistance and support on the Worker.

It shows us …..hell, I’m giving the game away here, work it out for yourself!

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,929
  • Aug 27, 2009 6:36pm Aug 27, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting strat
This is to everyone:

Unless you have a proven growing equity curve trading the Worker, you have NO CHANCE trading any time frame less than the Worker. This is the trap all new and inexperienced wannabe traders fall in to. They think, --well I don't really know what they think, I can't speak for them because I don't understand their logic.

Even once you have mastered, and I mean mastered (with a proven growing equity curve - nothing less), I would not recommend anything less than H1. Even then at H1, PASR is unstable and unreliable.

The temptation...
Indeed...Indeed!
  • #4,930
  • Edited 8:25pm Aug 27, 2009 6:44pm | Edited 8:25pm
I do see today's EURUSD close as significant. As Strat or Blackeagle would say, the DSR breach is the first in a series of hurdles on the way to breaching the nearby static levels. Though entering last night was better, the confusion displayed on the forum was appropriate in some ways and would mandate that one stand aside. Entering on a successful retest of the TL or using the TL as a stop may still be a valid R/R at this point. I am somewhat cautious in light of the USDCHF's inability to break it's lows yet, and the threat of intervention in that market.

In contrast, EURGBP continues an unsustainable ascent. My strategy there is simple to trail the stops until the inevitable takes over. 8925 seems a reasonable target to me. That is not a market to be chased, however, especially if it continues 9 bars up. Again, kudos to Blackeagle for pointing that one out first here.
  • #4,931
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:07pm Aug 27, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting Alexandra
I do see today's EURUSD close as significant. As Strat or Blackeagle would say, the DSR breach is the first in a series of hurdles on the way to breaching the nearby static levels. Though entering last night was better, the confusion displayed on the forum was appropriate in some ways and would mandate that one stand aside. Entering on a successful retest of the TL or using the TL as a stop may still be a valid R/R at this point. I am somewhat cautious in light of the USDCHF's inability to break it's lows yet, and the threat of intervention in that...
I see both pairs as a test of extremes.

Your invoice for EURGBP will be sent in due course!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,932
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:10pm Aug 27, 2009 8:10pm
Interesting that you posted about eur/jpy. I gotta share Im in a trade right now on that pair that I probably shouldn't have been in.

I bought on the break of the BUOB - #9. What I saw was building support at the 132.70 confluence dsri, static support and boss MA with the bond hammers and the OB.

What I overlooked was the resistance where which bar 10 stopped short of. I was looking for a trade and the man in my head got the better of me.

Im still in the trade, it came very close to my stop loss. We now have some bullish PA at the support/dsri so maybe buyers might get the strength to push it up again.
  • #4,933
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:11pm Aug 27, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting strat
You know by now that I detest threads and forums that post “signals” and the poor bastards that frequent them but I do like to “”throw out”” some crumbs to see if anyone is reading and understanding.

Hopefully our regular readers caught my drift from Post # 4694 on Page 313.
I went back to check the post and the chart isnt showing for some reason.
  • #4,934
  • Aug 27, 2009 8:16pm Aug 27, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting Naws
I went back to check the post and the chart isnt showing for some reason.
Still there on mine!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,935
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:24pm Aug 27, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting strat
Don't know whether its my jet lag, Dave, but your charts look "foggy"
Yep.

I'm using that color because it shows up best in an app I'm using for a trade journal.

I'll post in white background in the future.
  • #4,936
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:25pm Aug 27, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting Blackeagle
This is what I have on Daily. It needs to clear 1.75 first to start considering long. Then we'll have 1.77 and 1.80 resistances ahead that means the chart is too crowded.

Check out the static SR lines above 1.80, I don't see any until 1.95, so my strategy is to trade from short side below 1.75 and from long side above 1.80. 1.75-1.80 area is no-trade zone for me. Hope that helps.

Thanks Blackeagle.

It does help.
  • #4,937
  • Aug 27, 2009 10:29pm Aug 27, 2009 10:29pm
Giving a look to EURCHF at the moment....the Daily pattern looks productive to me, as does its recent PA. I would call any productive PA above 1.51 a buy sign. I will buy a close > 1.52 on a weekly basis.
  • #4,938
  • Aug 27, 2009 11:07pm Aug 27, 2009 11:07pm
Hello Strat and All,

I usually draw both kind of trendlines: 1) On highs or Lows; 2) On close.
I do this because sometimes, as in the E/U example, the resistance trendline on highs make a lot of sense to me.
Furthermore I draw because is what I actually already do for static S/R lines where I zoom out on a candle chart then fine tune on a line chart. As taught by Blackeagle earlier in this thread. Sometimes some level on the candle chart do not need to fine tune. Am I right?

Ramon

Boss Chart attached:






Quoting strat
Ramon, you seriously need to study the posts on DSRI and which is the most important level on a price bar.

Drawing your TLs like this will continue to mislead and confuse you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu28082009.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #4,939
  • Aug 28, 2009 1:27am Aug 28, 2009 1:27am
Quoting strat
Oh, and if you don’t know why box “A” is highlighted, please go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

I'll take a shot at it!!

I hope i dont have to go back to the beginning AGAIN!! lol

See chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strat_challenge_082709.png Size: 67 KB
  • #4,940
  • Aug 28, 2009 3:07am Aug 28, 2009 3:07am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I'll take a shot at it!!

I hope i dont have to go back to the beginning AGAIN!! lol

See chart
We had a hammer yesterday on EURJPY. Did you go long?
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