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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies
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New York, August 27. Trys reacting to Fed Lacker story about possibly cutting back on QE buying of MBS. This follows a small bounce after the better-than-expected GDP revision and modest drop in continuing claims. Also, markets and corporates are focused on closing August books at the moment with a slight USD buying bias.
A few stories favoring the JPY at the moment. First, the Nikkei News story form yesterday showing an increased number of Japanese firms plan to take advantage of tax-free repatriation of overseas profits. The total amount at risk is estimated by JP Morgan at JPY4trl though one would suspect that the BOJ will soak a good portion of that up. Second, Toyota shutting production on 700K vehicles may have a bias against overseas operations; particularly if it is perceived that the US government has a Detroit bias (WSJ). Third, the WSJ Part 3 story that short term JPY lending rates are now above USD rates is being circulated. Finally, there is talk a DPJ victory in elections may get foreigners interested in owning Japanese shares again as it may mark a "change we can believe in." The WSJ features an article about the DPJ moving away toward better Asian relations at the expense of US.
Though most of these stories have been marginalized, the new month may see them reemerge as a theme should the JPY keep moving higher in what is typically a volatile September/October time period.
93.50 option expiry today is closest to market.. Stops above 94.00/20 with offers above 94.70. 93.35 the low. [i][email protected][/i]
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Intercurrencies and hedges.
I am all over the 3 kingdoms. mostly in cable for the last 2 days,
Also arbitraging spot and online prices and position adjustment.
So its interplays between the books.
regardsIgnored
DislikedFDIC reports coming out, Banking industry in the US in horrible shape, problem banks highest levels in 15 years.. ect, ect...
Bad news for the banksIgnored
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DislikedMH,
I tried to open the link and it didn't work, you might have to go the the site and search it, 2009 2nd quarter report
Regards,
Taking a break, back later... good trading all.Ignored
DislikedPhew - what is going on there?
Strong moves in all majors ...
Are the CB's in ????
Dollar selling across the board.
Any ideas?Ignored